Group 1: Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas is primarily used in power generation, industrial applications, and urban gas, with a notable increase in urban gas consumption this summer despite weak demand in power generation and industrial sectors [1][2] - China's natural gas imports in July reached 10.6318 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%, with an average import price of $446.06 per ton, down 6.7% year-on-year [1] - The overall natural gas demand in China remained relatively stable this summer, with no significant increase, while domestic production of natural gas has risen significantly, impacting the space for imported gas [5][6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average monthly natural gas consumption for power generation is expected to decline to 5.8 billion cubic meters, down from 6 billion cubic meters last year, while industrial gas consumption is projected to decrease to 17.9 billion cubic meters from 18 billion cubic meters [2] - Urban gas consumption has increased to an average of 12.5 billion cubic meters per month, up from 11.3 billion cubic meters last year, driven by urbanization and the transition from coal to gas [5] Group 3: Price Trends and Regulatory Changes - The LNG comprehensive import price index for China was 134.92 from August 4 to 10, reflecting a 0.57% decrease week-on-week and a 5.11% decrease year-on-year [2] - Recent adjustments in natural gas pipeline transportation prices have been implemented, with some regions seeing price reductions, which are expected to lower costs for end-users [7][8] - The new regulatory framework aims to unify pricing mechanisms for natural gas transportation, potentially enhancing transaction efficiency and reducing costs for industrial and residential users [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China dropped to 49.5% in March, indicating a contraction but remaining close to the critical threshold of 50%, suggesting mixed signals in the economy [2][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, influenced by domestic COVID-19 outbreaks and international geopolitical conflicts, leading to reduced production and demand [3][4]. - The production index and new order index both fell into the contraction zone, with new export orders decreasing by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.3%, indicating stability and continued expansion despite a slight decline from the previous month [5]. High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.4%, remaining in the expansion zone despite a decrease from the previous month [4]. - Employment and business activity expectation indices for high-tech manufacturing were 52.0% and 57.8%, respectively, indicating strong resilience and positive market outlook [4]. Basic Raw Materials - The PMI for the basic raw materials sector increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery despite pressures from rising raw material prices [4]. - The purchasing price index for basic raw materials was over 10 percentage points higher than that of equipment manufacturing, indicating some cost absorption within the sector [4]. Business Sentiment - The production and business activity expectation index was 55.7%, showing a relatively optimistic outlook despite a decline from the previous month [5]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell below the critical point, but construction activity showed signs of improvement as weather conditions became favorable [5]. Economic Challenges - The economy faces pressures from demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, compounded by ongoing COVID-19 and geopolitical issues [5][6]. - Recommendations include improving pandemic control measures and expanding domestic demand policies to mitigate economic impacts [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4][7] - Rebar: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Hot - rolled coil: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Ferrosilicon: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Coke: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][20] Core Views - The report provides the latest price, trading volume, position, and other fundamental data for various black - series commodities, along with their price changes and trend intensities [6][9][13] - It also includes macro and industry news such as manufacturing PMI data, steel production data, and price policy announcements [6][10][11] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The futures price closed at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day; the position decreased by 26,208 lots to 358,293 lots. Among the imported ores, PB (61.5%) dropped 4 yuan to 776 yuan/ton, and the super - special (56.5%) dropped 2 yuan to 650 yuan/ton. The domestic ores remained stable [6] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [6] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a relatively bearish trend [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Changes**: The RB2510 futures of rebar closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.75%; the HC2510 futures of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.41%. The spot prices of rebar in major cities increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, while most of the spot prices of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [9] - **Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron decreased by 4.5%, and steel products increased by 0.5%. According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Changes**: The silicon iron 2509 futures closed at 5,908 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan; the silicon manganese 2509 futures closed at 6,096 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The spot price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan to 5,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicon manganese increased by 50 yuan to 5,850 yuan/ton [13] - **Industry News**: On August 6, the price of silicon iron 72 in some regions changed, and UMK announced a 0.15 - dollar increase in the manganese ore quotation for September [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, showing a relatively bullish trend [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Changes**: The JM2509 futures of coking coal closed at 1,074 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 3.8%; the J2509 futures of coke closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.6%. The spot price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased by 105 yuan to 1,395 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [18] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19] Logs - **Price Changes**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 832.5 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 52.3%. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [23]

7月份，全球制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月下降0.2个百分点。(完) 综合数据变化，亚洲制造业整体保持扩张态势，继续成为支撑全球经济复苏的主要动力。亚洲开发银行 最新报告预期46个"发展中亚洲"经济体2025年经济增速为4.7%，意味着亚洲经济整体增速仍然相对较 高，但也较4月份的预测下降0.2个百分点。亚洲开发银行下调预测增速的主要考虑是美国关税政策、全 球贸易不确定性以及需求不足的影响。主要国际组织均看好中国经济恢复前景。中国与世界各国本着互 利共赢的原则，在不同领域推进全球经济深化合作，也将成为亚洲乃至世界经济恢复的持续动力。 中新网北京8月6日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会6日发布数据显示，7月份，亚洲制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)为50.5%，较上月小幅下降0.2个百分点，连续3个月在50%以上。 从主要国家来看，中国制造业PMI较上月下降。印度制造业PMI升至59%以上。东盟国家中，泰国、菲 律宾和越南制造业PMI较上月上升，且指数均在50%以上；新加坡、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和缅甸制造 业PMI均在50%以下。日本和韩国制造业PMI较上月均有不同程度下降，均在49%以下。 ...

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [1] - The global manufacturing PMI has remained below 50% for five consecutive months, indicating continued weakness in the global manufacturing sector, with a slight reduction in recovery momentum compared to the previous month [1] - In July, the Americas' manufacturing PMI is at 48%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, remaining in contraction territory for five months, showing a decrease in recovery momentum [1] Group 2 - The European manufacturing PMI is reported at 49.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slow recovery trend that has persisted for seven months [1] - Africa's manufacturing PMI stands at 51.1%, up 1.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a sustained improvement in recovery and entering the expansion zone [1] - Asia's manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but has remained above 50% for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing expansion and support for global economic recovery [1] Group 3 - The global economic recovery faces significant downward pressure, with ongoing geopolitical conflicts and insufficient effective demand in global markets [2] - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report predicts that global trade growth will slow from 3.4% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025 [2] - Experts suggest that countries need to enhance communication and collaboration to explore new cooperation models and trade rules, gradually reducing uncertainty and strengthening economic resilience [2]

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index remains in expansion at 50.5%, with manufacturing production activities continuing to grow [1] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from last month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market price levels [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion and strong resilience against shocks, driven by robust market demand and policy support [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3%, showing that high-end equipment manufacturing is also maintaining expansion [1] Group 3 - Large enterprises show a good production and operational status, with production index and new orders index at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for July is at 52.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also remains in expansion, with the business activity expectation index rising by 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting optimism among service industry enterprises [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton or 0.51%. The previous day's position was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore increased to varying degrees. Some basis and spread values also changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,203 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 1.23%. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.58%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and basis and spread values also had corresponding changes [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to weekly data from Steel Union on July 31, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. Total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and apparent demand decreased [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and spot prices of relevant products decreased. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and semi - coke also changed. The basis and spread values of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding adjustments [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 229.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total manganese ore exports were 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's trading of thermal coal ZC2508 had no transactions. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous settlement price. Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal are provided, and the long and short positions of the top 20 members on August 1 did not change [23][24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Thermal coal has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [29].

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, production activities maintained expansion, indicating a solid foundation for economic recovery [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, still in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI improved slightly to 48%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was at 48.3%, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in sectors like petroleum and coal processing, as well as black metal smelting, showed significant recovery [2] Business Activity by Company Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained good operational conditions [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing continued improvement in business sentiment [2] - The PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting weaker business conditions [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, while sectors related to travel and consumption showed strong performance with indices above 60% [4] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating positive outlooks for the second half of the year [4]