Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened high and closed up by 174 points, reaching 26,033 points, with a trading volume of 20.0884 billion HKD and a net inflow of 2.148 billion HKD from northbound trading [3][4]. Retail Sector - Hong Kong's retail sales in October increased by 6.9% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 4.7%, with total sales value estimated at 35.2 billion HKD [7]. - Online sales accounted for 14.6% of total retail sales in October, with an estimated value of 5.2 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [7]. - Approximately 70% of retail members expect business in November to remain flat or grow in the low to mid-double digits, driven by tourism-related retail and promotional activities [8]. Gaming Sector - Macau's gaming revenue for November rose by 14.4% year-on-year, totaling 21.088 billion MOP, exceeding expectations [9]. Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in November, indicating a contraction, as new orders slowed and production ceased to expand [10]. Company News - Kaisa Group initiated a consent solicitation for multiple USD notes to allow for interest payments in shares instead of cash [12]. - ZhongAn Group reduced its stake in ZhongAn Technology by selling 37 million shares, raising approximately 76.96 million HKD for general working capital [13]. - BYD reported a 5.25% year-on-year decline in November vehicle sales, totaling approximately 480,200 units [14]. - Xpeng Motors announced a 156% year-on-year increase in cumulative deliveries for the first 11 months, with November deliveries reaching 36,728 units [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction rate since July, while backlogged orders have seen the largest decline in seven months [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising above $4,290 before retreating to around $4,259, ultimately closing at $4,265 per ounce, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1]. - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.03%, and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.33% [1]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 87.6%, as indicated by CME's "Fed Watch" tool [1]. - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing, along with dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, is likely to support gold and silver prices in the near future [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，统计局公布的 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，相对上月 的 49.0%有所改善，不过仍然位于荣枯线下方。 ...

【美元指数】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.03%，在汇市尾市收于99.415。截至纽约 汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1608美元，高于前一交易日的1.1602美元；1英镑兑换1.3213美元，低于前一交 易日的1.3247美元。1美元兑换155.48日元，低于前一交易日的156.12日元；1美元兑换0.8044瑞士法郎， 高于前一交易日的0.8035瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3997加元，高于前一交易日的1.3973加元；1美元兑换 9.4589瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.4388瑞典克朗。 【贵金属】现货黄金涨0.28%，报4232.12美元。国际银价连续第五个交易日上涨，再创新高，今年以来 已经上涨了一倍多。在接下来的交易中，白银的上涨幅度预计将超过黄金，部分原因是对美联储本月降 息的预期升温。斯巴达资本证券分析师彼得•卡迪罗表示："投资者正处于一个拐点，因为白银前景仍然 乐观，与其他金属相比，白银前景正在获得动力。75美元/盎司是一个可以实现的价格目标。" 【宏观消息】 智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数收跌，结束此前连续五个交易日的上涨趋势。比特币一度跌破8.4 万美元关口。日本央行行长植田 ...

12月1日周一，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月工厂活动萎缩幅度创四个月最大，新订单走弱，显示制造商仍难摆脱长期 低迷。 ISM数据公布后，美国10年期国债收益率回落至4.08%下方，日内涨幅收窄至不足7个基点，美国ISM制造业指数发布前还曾达到4.0923%。 11月新订单指数47.4，前值为49.4。客户需求整体依然乏力。11月订单以自7月以来最快的速度收缩，未完成订单积压量也创七个月以来最 大降幅。 就业指数44，前值为46。疲软的需求状况也解释了11月工厂就业的更大幅度收缩。 物价支付指数58.5，预期57.5，前值58。原材料支付价格指数在经历五个月下滑后首次回升，比一年前高出约8点。 生产指数在11月回升，以四个月来最快的速度扩张。尽管如此，今年以来的产出表现仍不稳定。 制造商原材料的供应商交货时间在四个月来首次加快。 制造商和客户的库存继续减少，但降幅较此前一个月有所放缓。 11个制造业行业在11月出现萎缩，其中服装、木材和纸制品以及纺织业跌幅居前。包括计算机和电子产品在内的仅四个行业报告增长，为一年 以来最少。 分析指出，ISM调查显示，美国制造业的困境仍受贸易政策不确定性 ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a decline, with major indexes showing losses: Dow down 207 points (-0.43%), S&P 500 down 46 points (-0.67%), Nasdaq down 239 points (-0.94%), and Russell 2000 down 26 points (-1.06%) [1] - Market sentiment is expected to seek balance, but uncertainty remains due to the Federal Reserve's "blackout period" ahead of the interest rate decision on December 10 [5] Economic Indicators - The first week of December is not a full "Jobs Week" due to delays from a government shutdown, with only ADP's private-sector payrolls report expected [2] - November S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing results are anticipated, with S&P expected around 51.9 and ISM below 50, indicating contraction [6] Holiday Shopping Trends - Cyber Monday is projected to attract 73.9 million online shoppers, following Black Friday's 130.4 million and Small-Business Saturday's 67 million [3] - Adobe forecasts online shopping to reach $11.8 billion on Cyber Monday, a 9.1% increase from the previous year [4] Retail Sector Insights - Black Friday saw a 10.4% increase in online sales compared to last year, while in-store sales grew only 1.7% [4] - Retailers such as Macy's, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and American Eagle are expected to report earnings soon, alongside CrowdStrike and Salesforce [10]

U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, a decline manufacturers attribute largely to President Trump's tariffs. The Institute for Supply Management's PMI for manufacturing came in at 48.2, a decrease from 48.7 in October. The level was below the 50 score that divides contraction from expansion. ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 200 points, down 0.42% to 47,515.41, NASDAQ down 1.08% to 23,113.36, and S&P 500 down 0.68% to 6,802.39 [1] - European shares were mostly lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 down 0.4%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 0.1%, London's FTSE 100 up 0.1%, Germany's DAX 40 down 1.1%, and France's CAC 40 down 0.4% [5] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.89%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.67%, China's Shanghai Composite up 0.65%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.08% [6] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.2 in November from a preliminary reading of 51.9, but down from October's final reading of 52.5 [2][7] Commodity Market - Oil traded up 1.7% to $59.53, gold up 0.2% to $4,261.40, silver up 0.9% to $57.62, and copper rose 0.8% to $5.3150 [4] Company Performance - Q32 Bio Inc. shares surged 171% to $5.91 after selling its Phase 2 complement inhibitor ADX-097 to Akebia for $12 million upfront and potential milestone and royalty payments up to $592 million [8] - Ambitions Enterprise Management Co. L.L.C shares increased 102% to $9.75 [8] - KALA BIO, Inc. shares rose 47% to $1.42 after securing a $6 million securities purchase agreement and appointing David Lazar as CEO and Chairman [8] - Paranovus Entertainment Technology Ltd. shares dropped 81% to $0.1996 [8] - CN ENERGY GROUP Inc shares fell 18% to $1.19 after announcing the launch of PATHENBOT Robotics Solutions Platform [8] - Rubico Inc shares decreased 19% to $0.13 following a 1-for-30 reverse stock split [8]

Group 1 - The strongest player in the Chinese internet sector is ByteDance, which is outperforming all other companies, while competitors are engaged in internal conflicts instead of uniting against Douyin [1] - Precious metals related stocks have surged, and it is difficult to imagine a significant pullback during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.9, indicating slight contraction, but there is a positive note with a significant increase in export orders [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock has surged as the founder takes on a personal role, highlighting the market's divided views on the company's value [1] - Meituan's stock fluctuated but did not experience significant declines throughout the day [1] - Xiaomi's app will introduce a feature for purchasing available vehicles without waiting, indicating an improvement in inventory levels, which may affect stock prices [1] Group 2 - The first trading day of December saw a noticeable increase in trading volume, indicating institutional activity, although this led to a high open and subsequent decline [2] - Overall market performance was positive, with a recovery in the afternoon providing a boost to many investors [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures. The main contracts of stock index futures were expected to oscillate strongly during the day and attack resistance levels [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. - IF2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 4550 and 4565 points (4565 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 4511 and 4492 points (4492 points had strong support) [2][8]. - IH2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 2990 and 3000 points (3000 points had relatively strong resistance), with support levels at 2963 and 2952 points (2952 points had strong short - term support) [2][9]. - IC2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7054 and 7112 points (7112 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 6974 and 6925 points (6925 points had strong short - term support) [2][10]. - IM2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7322 and 7365 points (7365 points had relatively strong medium - and short - term resistance), with support levels at 7260 and 7211 points (7211 points had strong short - term support) [3][10]. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [2][4]. - From January to October, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 683529.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 34214.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - In October, China's exports of goods and services in international payments were 3416 billion US dollars, imports were 2625 billion US dollars, with a surplus of 792 billion US dollars. At the end of June, China's external securities investment assets (excluding reserve assets) were 16942 billion US dollars, including 10763 billion US dollars in equity investment and 6179 billion US dollars in bond investment [4]. - The China National Space Administration had recently established a commercial space department, and related businesses were gradually being carried out, marking that China's commercial space industry had a full - time regulatory agency, which would continue to promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space, and the entire industrial chain was expected to benefit [5]. - The US Secretary of State Rubio said after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations that the talks with Ukraine were "fruitful", but there was still much work to be done. He also said that Russia would play a central role in any agreement to end the conflict with Ukraine. The US government would strengthen diplomatic efforts in the next week, and the US special envoy for the Middle East, Witkoff, was expected to go to Moscow for further talks [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Measures for the Implementation of Supervision and Administration Measures in the Securities and Futures Markets (Draft for Comment)". The "Measures" clearly listed 14 commonly used measures such as ordering corrections, regulatory talks, issuing warning letters, and ordering regular reports, and used "other supervision and administration measures stipulated by laws, administrative regulations, and CSRC regulations" as a catch - all provision [7]. - On November 28, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of multiple indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to adjust the constituent stocks of indices such as the SSE 50 and STAR 50, and the adjustments would take effect after the market closed on December 12. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it would conduct regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 on December 15 [7]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the market trend of the main futures contracts on the day was expected as follows: - On December 1, the main contract IF2512 of the CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 4539.4 points, up 0.72%. It failed to break through the 4550 - point resistance, with obvious support at the 4511.2 - point support since September 4. It broke through the 10 - day moving average resistance but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and continued to rise in the short term [7]. - The main contract IH2512 of the SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 2973.6 points, up 0.33%. It failed to break through the resistance at the high point of 2986.4 points on November 27, with obvious support at the closing price of 2963.2 points on November 28. It broke through the support and resistance of the 10 - day moving average but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and the support of the 5 - day moving average was regained. It continued to rise slightly in the short term, but the upward movement was a bit weak [8]. - The main contract IC2512 of the CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7028.2 points, up 0.83%. It failed to break through the resistance at the medium - and short - term low point of 7053.8 points since September 4, with obvious support at the closing price of 6974.2 points on November 28. It failed to effectively break through the 60 - day moving average resistance and continued to rise in the short term [9]. - The main contract IM2512 of the CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7300.2 points, up 0.70%. It failed to effectively break through the short - term resistance of 7321.6 points since October 9, and the support of the closing price of 7260.8 points on November 28 was regained. It failed to effectively break through the resistance of the 40 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with obvious support from the 60 - day moving average. It continued to rise slightly in the short term [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IF in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 4426 and 4307 points and resistance levels at 4690 and 4741 points [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IH in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 2908 and 2872 points and resistance levels at 3030 and 3080 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IC in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6650 and 6565 points and resistance levels at 7395 and 7470 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IM in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6976 and 6850 points and resistance levels at 7500 and 7600 points [11].