This Week's Key Focus - On July 21 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China is expected to announce that the 1-year LPR remains at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2][4] - On July 24 at 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, with an expected unchanged benchmark rate [2][15] - On July 25 at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of June's durable goods orders [2] - On July 27 at 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits, with the previous value showing a 9.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% cumulative decline from January to May [2][19] - Other factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials may impact the futures market [2] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 21 - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the achievements of building a transportation powerhouse during the '14th Five - Year Plan' [3] July 22 - At 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the first - half 2025 foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data [5] - At 20:30, Fed Chair Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting, a rare 'live speech during the quiet period' [8] July 23 - At 22:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July consumer confidence index, expected to be - 14.5 [9] - At 22:00, the US National Association of Realtors will announce June's existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4 million households and an annualized monthly rate of - 0.7%. Lower values may suppress non - ferrous metal futures prices [10] - At 22:30, the EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 18. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [11] July 24 - At 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - July market prices of important production materials [12] - At 16:00, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the eurozone's July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.8. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [13] - At 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by President Lagarde at 20:45 [15] - At 20:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, expected to be 215,000. A slight decrease may slightly boost non - gold and non - silver industrial product futures but suppress gold and silver futures [14] - At 21:45, S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI, expected to be 53.5. A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [16] - At 22:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce June's new home sales, with an expected seasonally adjusted annualized total of 650,000 households and an annualized monthly rate of 4.3%. Higher values may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] July 25 - At 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of June's durable goods orders, expected to be - 11%. A significant decrease may suppress non - ferrous metal futures but boost gold and silver futures [18] July 27 - At 09:30, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce June's industrial enterprise profits [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

Export Data - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%[2] - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to $103.22 billion in the previous month[2] Import Data - Imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect and resilient export performance, with the import volume showing significant growth[4] Export Drivers - The recovery in export growth was partly due to the delayed impact of the US-China tariff suspension, with the year-on-year decline in exports to the US narrowing by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1%[3] - Demand for re-export from ASEAN countries continued to rise, although future costs may increase due to the US-Vietnam tariff agreement[3] Import Trends - Strong demand for high-end manufacturing imports, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, contributed approximately 1.8 percentage points to import growth[4] - The import growth of most energy and mineral products was affected by price factors, particularly for copper[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to benefit from the tariff suspension in the short term, but pressure may emerge by the end of Q3 2025 due to elevated base effects and potential shifts in US demand[5] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties and unexpected changes in economic policies that could impact market sentiment[5]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. The 08 contract has upward potential due to the expected peak - season price increase, while the 10 - month contract, being a traditional off - season, presents short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Most airlines maintained stable July quotes, with the median of the quotes from major airlines (except Maersk) in the second half of July around $3660. The market is watching Maersk's quote and the 8 - month quotes of other airlines. The expected peak - season price increase is being repaired, and considering good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward space, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - Market situation from June 30 to July 4: The China export container shipping market was stable, with ocean routes showing a differentiated trend and the composite index adjusting. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 5.3% from the previous period [9]. - European routes: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The market freight rate increased slightly, with the Shanghai - to - European basic port market freight rate at $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American routes: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. The Shanghai - to - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10]. - Geopolitical events: Houthi rebels launched an attack on Israel on July 6. The US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran said the damage was not as serious as the US claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, and China condemned the US attack [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **集运现货价格**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04, up 6.3% from June 30; for US West routes, it was 1557.77, down 3.8% from June 30 [12]. - **集运指数（欧线）期货行情**: Provided data on trading of several contracts on July 8, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - **航运相关数据走势图**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79745 with a basis of 125, indicating a premium over futures, which is considered neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 5100 to 102500 tons on July 8, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons to 84589 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, but the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts, high - level inventory reduction, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% US copper tariff overnight, market volatility has intensified [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Copper fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and stable manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over futures [2]. - Inventory changes are neutral as both total and SHFE inventories increased [2]. - The price trend is bullish as the closing price is above the rising 20 - day moving average [2]. - The main players' position is bearish with a net short position that is decreasing [2]. - Market expectations are volatile due to Fed policy, inventory changes, trade tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]. Other Data - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index further rebounded above 2,200 points. The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover, and with good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the price increase in the peak season is expected to materialize. The 08 contract still has some upward space, while the 10 - month is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low levels [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2,200 points. Most airlines maintained stable quotes in July, with the median of the second - half - of - July quotes around $3,660. There are few airlines that have quoted for August. The peak - season price increase expectation has recovered, and the 08 contract has upward potential, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Market Conditions (June 30 - July 4): The China Export Container Shipping Market remained stable, with the comprehensive index adjusting. The manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The Shanghai - to - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing PMI in June was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2,089/FEU and $4,124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: Houthi attacks on Israel, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and relevant responses from China and the international community [10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 7, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai - Europe (Basic Ports) | 2,258.04 | 2,123.24 | 134.8 | 6.3 | | Shanghai - US West (Basic Ports) | 1,557.77 | 1,619.19 | - 61.42 | - 3.8 | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data of multiple contracts on July 8 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The market uptrend is expected to continue, supported by technical indicators and optimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.19, lower than the previous week (1.36), indicating current market liquidity is 1.19 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.79 from 0.95, reflecting increased investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.98% and 1.62%, respectively, maintaining trading activity at 66.75% and 75.52% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly increases of 0.05% and 0.12%, respectively [2]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 and above the expected 49.3; the Caixin manufacturing PMI for June was 50.4, higher than the previous 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the SAR indicator on June 24, signaling a buy [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 228, placing it in the 88.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, with both trend and weighted models indicating positive signals [2]. Market Performance - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.21%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index went up by 0.81%, and the ChiNext index gained 1.5% during the last week [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.0 times, positioned at the 60.1% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for high earnings growth factors has significantly increased [3]. - The crowding degrees for small-cap factors, low valuation factors, high earnings factors, and high earnings growth factors are 0.66, -0.10, -0.21, and 0.15, respectively [3]. - The industry crowding degrees are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, retail, and non-bank financial sectors, with construction materials and steel showing notable increases [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US has lifted export restrictions on EDA software, ethane, and aircraft engines to China, following recent trade talks [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that both sides are working to implement the consensus reached during the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1][2] - The lifting of restrictions is seen as a positive signal for further cooperation and outcomes in US-China trade relations [2] Group 2: National Unified Market Construction - The Central Economic Commission of China has emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a national unified market, focusing on "five unifications and one openness" [3] - Specific measures include addressing low-price disorderly competition and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [3][4] - The strategic upgrade reflects a shift from internal integration to external collaboration, aiming for long-term high-quality development [4] Group 3: Health Insurance and Innovative Drugs - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced measures to support the development of innovative drugs, including the establishment of a commercial health insurance directory for innovative drugs [5][6] - This directory will include high-value innovative drugs that exceed basic medical insurance coverage, alleviating pressure on the medical insurance fund [6] - The initiative aims to create a sustainable payment pathway for high-value innovative drugs while ensuring basic medical insurance focuses on essential coverage [6] Group 4: Foreign Investment Tax Incentives - The Chinese government has announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors reinvesting profits in domestic projects, effective from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028 [7] - This policy aims to encourage foreign investment by allowing a 10% tax credit on reinvested profits, which is a significant incentive compared to previous policies [7] - The move is part of broader efforts to stabilize foreign investment amid declining actual foreign capital usage in China [7] Group 5: Solar Industry Regulation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has convened a meeting with 14 solar companies to address low-price competition in the solar industry [8][9] - The government aims to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to promote sustainable development [8] - The recent actions signal a strong commitment from the highest levels of government to tackle the issue of unhealthy competition in the solar sector [9] Group 6: Major Infrastructure Projects - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects for 2025, totaling 800 billion yuan for the year [10][11] - These projects focus on critical areas such as ecological restoration, transportation infrastructure, and urban underground networks [10] - The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies aim to provide sufficient funding for these major projects, which are crucial for stabilizing investment growth [11] Group 7: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, with production and new orders both showing positive trends [12][13] - Despite the increase, the PMI remains below the 50% threshold, suggesting that the recovery in the manufacturing sector is still fragile [12][13] - External uncertainties and fluctuating demand continue to pose challenges for the manufacturing industry, necessitating supportive macroeconomic policies [13] Group 8: US Tax and Spending Legislation - The US Congress has passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes significant tax cuts and is expected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [14][15] - The legislation has raised concerns among investors regarding its long-term fiscal implications, including potential cuts to federal assistance and increased national debt [14][15] - The market's reaction indicates growing apprehension about the sustainability of US fiscal policies and their impact on global investment strategies [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - **International News**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - **US**: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - **EU**: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].