Economic Indicators - October manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, a decline significantly higher than seasonal trends[6] - Weak demand continues to be a primary factor affecting economic performance, with recent policies failing to effectively counteract this trend[6] - The "holiday effect" from a longer National Day holiday impacted production and demand, contributing to the PMI drop[6] Production and Orders - Production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while new orders dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, both significantly below seasonal levels[7] - September industrial added value increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, indicating a strong seasonal push before a sharp decline in October[6] Price Indices - Expected October PPI month-on-month reading is approximately -0.1%, with year-on-year reading likely to remain at -2.3%[7] - The producer price index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, while the main raw material purchasing price index also decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5%[7] Sector Performance - Construction PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating weakening in the construction sector, while service sector PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%[7] - The phenomenon of "anti-involution" is affecting both supply and demand, potentially leading to negative impacts on employment and income[6]

从整体来看，10月制造业PMI回落符合市场预期，主要原因有三：一是十月国庆假期和中秋假期相叠 加，休假时间较长，属于季节性影响因素造成的脉冲影响，11月即可恢复正常生产开工水平；二是10月 前半段国际贸易形势不确定性升高，部分企业风险偏好收缩，减少生产和投资扩张；三是制造业投资有 比较典型的"顺周期"特征，在整体投资增速放缓的前提下，制造业PMI也会相应受到影响。 从结构视角来看，首先是供需两侧。10月生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.7%和48.8%，表明生产和需 求两端均有同时放缓的倾向。今年以来，宏观经济"供强需弱"的情况比较突出，PMI中的生产分项指数 持续高于新订单分项。需要注意到，10月生产指数放缓，主要和长假期等季节性因素有关，经济整体的 产出和供给侧未发生重大变化，仍保持活跃态势。不过今年的新订单指数走势放缓，直接反映国内总需 求不足的实际情况。 （资料图片） 本报评论员 胡光旗 10月31日，据国家统计局数据显示，10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个 百分点。今年以来，制造业PMI总体处于偏低水平，但展望后期，有利因素逐渐增多，制造业PMI有望 逐步回升。 第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic output of China remains stable, with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while non-manufacturing sectors exhibit growth due to holiday consumption and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [2][3]. - All 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI declined, with the production index falling to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activities [3]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, reflecting tightening export demand due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [4]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, three key sectors—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [5][6]. - These sectors showed resilience, with production and new orders indices around 51%, indicating stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policies [6]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices are showing positive changes, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing experiencing rising purchase and factory price indices [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profit margins [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing expansion and a positive trend in service sector activities, particularly in transportation and hospitality due to holiday effects [8]. - Infrastructure investment activities are showing signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering construction index rising significantly, suggesting a solid foundation for growth in the fourth quarter [8].

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI ended a two-month rising trend, with all 13 sub-indices declining, reflecting pressure on enterprises [4][5]. - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, dropping 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [6]. - The new export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [6][7]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing maintained expansion, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [9][10]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices showed positive changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [11]. - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index decreased, indicating reduced cost pressures, which could benefit profit margins in the sector [12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, reflecting ongoing expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and holiday spending [14][15]. - The civil engineering construction business activity index rose significantly, indicating a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment activities [16].

Core Viewpoint - The official manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49%, which is below the neutral level of 50, suggesting a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - A PMI reading below 50 typically signals a contraction in the manufacturing sector, reflecting potential challenges for companies operating in this space [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP preliminary value for Q3 is expected to show continued moderate expansion, with consumer spending being a key focus [1] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October will reflect changes in consumer confidence following a decrease in inflation [2] - Japan's preliminary GDP for Q3 will be observed to assess whether the economy is recovering from weakness, particularly in exports and consumption [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, may influence the pace of interest rate cuts [3] - The EIA's report on crude oil inventory changes will impact short-term oil price dynamics [3] - The U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be monitored to evaluate the recovery of the economy in a high-interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes will provide insights into the latest assessments of inflation and economic growth [5] - Canada's GDP data for August will be released, with potential implications for short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement are anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with Powell's speech expected to guide market direction [7] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting results will be closely watched for any adjustments to negative interest rate policies and yield curve control frameworks [8] - Australia's Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI) will be analyzed to observe inflation trends and the subsequent policy space for the Reserve Bank of Australia [9] - The final value of the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for October will help determine if manufacturing activity is recovering [10] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for October, as a leading indicator, may influence market perceptions of economic prospects [11]

美国10月标普全球制造业PMI初值为52.2，预期52；10月标普全球服务业PMI初值为55.2，预期53.5。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月24日，美国10月标普全球制造业PMI初值为52.2，预期52；10月标普全球服务业PMI 初值为55.2，预期53.5。 ...

④佩斯科夫：俄将对西方新制裁作出回应； 来源：第一财经 【时政新闻】 ①美国9月CPI同比增长3%，前值增长2.9%；环比增长0.3%，前值增长0.4%； ②特朗普：美国终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判； ③普京：布达佩斯会晤更像是改期而非取消； ①美股三大股指期货齐涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%，标普500指数期货涨0.79%，纳指期货涨 1.03%； ②欧洲主要股指多数下跌，截至发稿，英国富时100指数涨0.11%，法国CAC40指数跌0.6%，德国DAX 指数跌0.16%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.03%； ③现货黄金跌幅收窄至1%，现报4084.9美元/盎司； 【公司新闻】 ①Anthropic确认与谷歌云达成价值数百亿美元的合作协议； ⑤俄特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫已抵达美国。据报道，预计德米特里耶夫将会见特朗普政府官员，就俄 美关系展开磋商； ⑥巴西总统：已准备好与特朗普进行谈判； ⑦美官员否认与量子公司洽谈政府入股问题； ⑧俄罗斯央行降息50个基点至16.5%； ⑨欧元区10月制造业PMI初值为50，前值为49.8； 【市场动态】 ②英特尔美股盘前涨超5%，公司第三季度营收重现增长，利润转正。 (本文 ...

每经AI快讯，10月24日，欧元区10月制造业PMI初值为50，前值49.8。 ...