Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets experienced a "risk off" attitude, with the Dow closing at -0.55%, S&P 500 at -0.69%, and Nasdaq at -0.60% [1] - Goldman Sachs was the worst performer on the Dow, down -1.9%, while Kraft Heinz fell -7%, the largest drop in the S&P 500 [2] Commodity Performance - Gold prices reached a new all-time high, increasing by +2.35% to just below $3600 per ounce [2] - Bitcoin also saw growth, rising +1.88% to $111,313 [2] Company Earnings - Zscaler reported fiscal Q4 results, with earnings of 89 cents per share, beating estimates by 9 cents, and quarterly sales of $719 million, surpassing expectations of $706 million [3] - Zscaler's billings were notably higher than expected, and guidance for the next quarter and full fiscal year was raised, leading to a +5% increase in shares during late trading [3] Economic Indicators - S&P Manufacturing PMI for August was slightly below expectations at +53.0, down -30 basis points from the previous month, while ISM Manufacturing improved to +48.7%, 70 basis points above the prior month [4] - Construction spending for July showed a slight improvement, moving from -0.4% in June to -0.1%, although it remains below expectations [5] Upcoming Reports - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July is expected to remain stable at 7.4 million job openings, consistent with the current labor market trends [6] - Factory Orders for July are anticipated to improve to -1.3% from -4.8% in June, with additional reports on the Beige Book and August Auto Sales expected [7] - Salesforce is expected to report quarterly earnings with +8.2% growth in earnings per share and +8.7% in revenues, having only missed earnings once in the past five years [8]

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a continuous recovery during the peak season. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in August, indicating a good macro atmosphere. Various metal prices are expected to strengthen, particularly for rigid supply varieties like copper and aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The number of listed companies in the industry is 141, with a total market value of 40,523.71 billion and a circulating market value of 38,091.88 billion [2]. - Domestic industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices changing by 1.1%, -0.1%, -0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, while SHFE prices changed by -0.9%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and -0.6% [5][25]. Economic Factors - The manufacturing PMI in China for August is reported at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3, with production and new orders indices at 50.8 and 49.5 respectively [8][35]. - The U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in July, while the CPI remained stable at 2.7% [8][45]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index has declined, with CPI growth steady at 2% [8][43]. - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July, indicating a slight deterioration in business conditions [8][49]. Basic Metals - The recovery in the peak season continues, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, with signs of increasing downstream demand [9][51]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw a capacity increase of 10,000 tons, with operational capacity reaching 44,035,000 tons [10][52]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.7%, indicating a recovery trend as the peak season approaches [10][53]. Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price is experiencing accelerated declines, with a current price of 3,209 yuan/ton, down 1.26% [12][97]. - Domestic alumina inventory has risen to 4,316,000 tons, surpassing historical levels [12][99]. Copper - The processing fee for copper has declined, with domestic electrolytic copper production reported at 238,000 tons, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year [14][116]. - Domestic copper inventory has decreased to 202,200 tons, down 0.88% from the previous week [14][116]. Zinc - The processing fee for refined zinc has increased, with domestic production reported at 138,400 tons, up 4.05% year-on-year [15][116]. - Domestic zinc inventory has continued to rise, reaching 144,500 tons [15][116].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-02 面，持仓下降价格回升，空头氛围减弱，关注22200支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22325 | 150 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 10 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2833 | 19 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 217039 | -10790 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -7797 | 5781 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 38955 | 998 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 85980 | 8142 LME库存(日,吨) | 55875 | -625 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22150 | 50 长江有 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Macroscopically, China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March, and the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom-bust line for the first time in three years. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was mainly affected by factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak-season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventories have remained high, and tin downstream buyers are cautious after the price increase. The spot premium has dropped to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, but the spot premium has risen. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips, focusing on the range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 273,980 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin was -200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,060 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 34,947 lots, down 1,036 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was -2,097 lots, up 729 lots. The LME tin total inventory was 2,155 tons, up 145 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipts were 7,263 tons, up 48 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 273,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,530 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was -480 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 148 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 261,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of tin - coated sheets was 140,700 tons, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - coated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3]. Industry News - The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022, with the fastest growth rates of factory output and new orders in nearly three and a half years. China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March. New orders drove the recovery of manufacturing production, the pace of contraction of new export business slowed down, procurement activities and inventories increased, and business confidence also improved, but enterprises remained cautious in employee recruitment. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China plans to implement 100 "small but beautiful" livelihood projects in member states in need and will provide 2 billion yuan in free aid to member states this year. China's cumulative trade volume with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries has exceeded the target of 2.3 trillion US dollars ahead of schedule, and China will soon establish the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank to provide stronger support for member states' security and economic cooperation [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A - share daily trading volume at a relatively high level above 2.5 trillion. The macro - level influencing factors are generally favorable, with the 8 - month China manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.4% and an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Strategically, short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Financial Instruments - The closing price of DR001 is 1.31, down 1.73bp; DR007 is 1.45, down 7.04bp; GC001 is 1.02, down 2.00bp; GC007 is 1.44, down 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.55, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.36, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.59, down 1.00bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.77, down 1.00bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, up 1.00bp [4]. - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4524, up 0.60%; SSE 50 is 2981, up 0.16%; CSI 500 is 7110, up 0.94%; CSI 1000 is 7501, up 0.84%. The trading volume of IF is 144297, down 27.7%; its open interest is 276618, down 5.7%. The trading volume of IH is 54597, down 33.0%; its open interest is down 10.2%. The trading volume of IC is 126661, down 23.9%; its open interest is 235990, down 5.0%. The trading volume of IM is 251805, down 24.0%; its open interest is 375228, down 3.3% [6]. Central Bank Operations - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan in all - caliber funds [4]. - This week, 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 288.4 billion, 405.8 billion, 379.9 billion, 416.1 billion, and 782.9 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright repurchases will mature on Friday [5]. Market Conditions - Yesterday, most industry sectors closed higher. The precious metals sector soared, with jewelry, biological products, energy metals, medical services, and chemical pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while insurance and aerospace sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 5.88%, 3.63%, 2.66%, and 2.32% respectively. The premium rates of IH are 1.09%, 0.85%, 0.14%, and - 0.12% respectively. The premium rate of IC for the current - month contract is 27.23%. The premium rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 32.59%, 19.78%, 14.34%, and 12.31% respectively [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are weak, alumina is in a low - level oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% has been achieved, and it will take measures to maintain price stability. The "easing cycle" is expected to end, and the ECB is likely to "stand still" for the second consecutive time at the next meeting. The euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years, with strong rebounds in Germany and France [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,645, down 95 from T - 1, and the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,620, up 1 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 158,586, an increase of 37,344 from T - 1 [1] - The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 2.56%, unchanged from T - 1, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 4.72, up 1.74 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 3,008, down 28 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 356,281, an increase of 65,205 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 19, and the cost of the near - month long and consecutive - first short inter - period arbitrage was 25.58, down 0.60 from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275, down 75 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 1,959, an increase of 591 from T - 1 [1] - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 15.00, down 45 from T - 1, and the spot premium was - 30, down 10 from T - 1 [1] Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from T - 1, and the SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 58,500 tons, down 100 tons from T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 3,942.14, down 144.87 from T - 1, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,200.55, down 29.10 from T - 1 [1] Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 3,222, unchanged from T - 1, and the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 386 US dollars per ton, down 2 US dollars from T - 1 [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 230, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 177, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,300, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - The total inventory of the three places was 33,715, an increase of 719 from T - 1 [1] Other - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,710, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

【新闻】 中国 8 月标普制造业 PMI 回升至 50.5，新订单增速为 3 月以来最快。新订单增加推动制造业生产恢复 增长，新出口业务萎缩步伐放缓，采购活动和库存增加，商业信心也有所提升，但企业在员工招聘方面仍保 持谨慎。（华尔街见闻） 内需回暖提振，欧元区 8 月制造业 PMI 三年来首次升至荣枯线上方，德法强劲反弹。（华尔街见闻） 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16855 | -0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1997 | 0.45% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 39854 | -3999 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5890 | 2073 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51017 | 1835 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 1603 ...