证券研究报告：固定收益报告 福建属于传统意义上的好区域，不在重点省份的名单之列，经济 财政实力未处于第一梯队，但好在债务负担也偏轻。从 2024 的数据 表现来看，福建单论经济财政实力并不算特别突出，只能属于"第二 梯队"。福建省 2024 年的 GDP 为 57,761.02 亿元，一般预算收入 2,329.73 亿元，政府性基金收入为 1,787.51 亿元。但福建省的杠杆 程度同样不算高，2024 年福建政府债务结构分布较为均衡，从债务绝 对规模来看，与贵州省较为接近。 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《杠杆可以更积极点——流动性周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 信用周度观点 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ ——信用周报 20250616 ⚫ 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ 漳州在福建地级市排序中属于"独一档"的中等偏上的水平，经 济财 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was halved, and the net financing continued to be negative. The issuance of innovative varieties such as science - and - technology bonds increased. The reform of economic development zones encourages park urban investment companies to list for financing [6][9][17]. - The yield of urban investment bonds may be more likely to decline. The safety cushion of urban investment bonds is still sufficient, and the credit spread still has room to compress. Investment strategies include allocating high - quality enterprises in strong regions, paying attention to urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits, and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, focus on new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][7][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 5 - month Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Financing and issuance scale**: Affected by tightened financing policies and seasonal factors, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 52.44% month - on - month to 26.3616 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 7.127 billion yuan, remaining negative for three consecutive months. The issuance scale from January to May was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.22%. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of key provinces and large economic provinces decreased month - on - month [9][11]. - **Review and approval**: The review and approval pass rate of urban investment bonds on the exchange decreased by 7.45 percentage points to 88.01% month - on - month, with 7 bonds terminated for review, mainly issued by AA - level and below entities. The registration pass rate of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased by 5.97 percentage points to 11% month - on - month [10][11]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance of science - and - technology bonds accelerated. In May, 14 labeled urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, 9 science - and - technology bonds had a scale of 870 million yuan. Labeled urban investment bonds had a certain cost advantage [17]. - **Issuance term and borrowing - to - repay ratio**: The weighted average issuance term was 4.18 years, an increase of 0.18 years month - on - month. The borrowing - to - repay ratio was 93.24%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Only Chongqing among the 8 key provinces issued new - type urban investment bonds [20]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month, and the spread was 77.49BP, a narrowing of 14.44BP month - on - month. The issuance cost in key provinces was higher and the decline was smaller [23]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds decreased by 70.33% month - on - month to 1.2218 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased by 0.31BP to 5.88% [29]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The spot trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall, and the credit spreads of most key provinces narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Analysis - **Rating adjustment**: On May 19, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. upgraded the bond ratings of "G23 Nanhu 1" and "23 Nanhu Green Bond 01" of Jiaxing Nanhu Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [7]. - **Abnormal transactions**: 46 bonds of 39 urban investment entities had 70 abnormal transactions, with a scale of 252 million yuan. The scale and number of abnormal transactions decreased month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Early Redemption and Maturity Putback - In May, 62 urban investment companies early - redeemed the principal and interest of 73 bonds, with a scale of 1.3396 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 46.34%. The maturity and putback scale of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year is 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Allocate high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term duration allocation, focus on strong urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, pay attention to new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment, especially those with labeled bonds such as science - and - technology and green bonds [6][45]. 3.5 Recent Policies and Hot Events - **Central policies**: In May, the central government introduced policies beneficial to the transformation and development of urban investment enterprises, including supporting the issuance of science - and - technology bonds, promoting urban renewal, reforming national economic development zones, and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics [6][48]. - **Local policies**: Jilin proposed to accelerate the "withdrawal from the province", Xinjiang set a goal to clear financing platforms in 2025, Jiangsu supervised the replacement of implicit debts with special bonds, and Zhejiang issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a cash flow turning point, particularly in the waste disposal sector, which is expected to increase dividends and improve return on equity (ROE) through heat supply and IDC expansion [1][11] - The report highlights the importance of decreasing capital expenditures leading to improved free cash flow and dividend potential, as the industry matures [11][12] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the water service sector, driven by policy reforms and operational efficiencies [15][17] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is seeing a significant increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a 73% year-on-year growth in the first four months of 2025, and a penetration rate of 14.55% [25] - The report notes that the average profit margin for waste disposal operations is 47.38%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.92%, indicating strong operational efficiency [9] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Conch Venture, Huaneng Environment, Green Power, and Yongxing Shares, among others, due to their strong cash flow and dividend potential [5][10] - It suggests focusing on companies with high dividend potential, such as Junxin Shares and Green Power, which are expected to see significant increases in cash dividends in 2024 [12][13] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 21.82 billion, 23.04 billion, and 24.38 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.1, 6.7, and 6.3 [10] - The report anticipates that the dividend payout ratio for the sector could reach between 97% and 120% under stable conditions, with potential for even higher payouts in the coming years [12][13] Sector Analysis - The waste incineration sector is expected to benefit from reduced capital expenditures and improved cash flow, leading to higher dividends [11] - The water service sector is projected to experience stable growth and high dividends, supported by recent water price reforms in major cities [15][17]

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. military actions and political maneuvers, suggesting that the military is cautious about engaging in conflicts that could lead to significant losses [1][3][4] - It highlights the historical context of U.S. military interventions, particularly under the Bush administration, which were driven by oil interests and resulted in increased national debt [4][20][38] - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of oil prices in U.S. economic policy, linking military actions in the Middle East to efforts to raise oil prices and manage national debt [16][21][38] Group 2 - The piece outlines the geopolitical dynamics involving the U.S., Russia, and Middle Eastern countries, particularly focusing on oil control and the impact on European economies [2][21][35] - It suggests that the U.S. is leveraging conflicts, such as those involving Iran, to manipulate oil prices for economic benefits, drawing parallels to past strategies [36][41] - The article concludes that the current U.S. administration may be repeating historical patterns of using military action to influence economic conditions, particularly in relation to oil and debt management [38][40][41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the resolution of hidden local government debts, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of environmental companies. Since 2018, risks associated with local government hidden debts have been alleviated, with a target to completely resolve these debts by the end of 2028, involving an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace existing hidden debts [4][9][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to limit new local government debt while addressing existing hidden debts, focusing on the investment opportunities this creates for environmental companies. The goal is to resolve all hidden debts by the end of 2028, with a total of 6 trillion yuan in new debt limits to facilitate this process [4][8][9]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector experienced a slight increase of 0.46% in the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025. In comparison, the gas and water sectors rose by 1.95% and 0.79%, respectively. The report also lists the top five gainers and losers among environmental stocks during this period [12][13][14]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report provides data on carbon market transactions, noting that the national carbon emissions trading quota (CEA) saw a transaction volume of 2.22 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous week, with an average transaction price of 67.21 yuan per ton. Local trading exchanges saw a significant drop in transaction volume, down 74% [16][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the environmental sector based on their potential for growth due to the ongoing debt resolution policies. Key recommendations include: - Solid Waste: China Everbright International, Sanfeng Environment, Green Power, and Hanlan Environment - Water Services: Beijing Enterprises Water Group and Guangdong Investment - Engineering Services: Delin Hai - Environmental Monitoring Equipment: Xuedilong [11][12].

Group 1 - The national debt replacement work has made significant progress, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued, achieving over 80% of the 2 trillion yuan target for this year [1] - The Ministry of Finance increased the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan last year, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually over three years for replacing existing hidden debts [1] - More than 170 regions have announced the achievement of "full clearance of hidden debts" as of May 28, with some areas converting high-interest debts to lower-interest ones [1] Group 2 - The pressure on urban investment companies regarding interest payments is expected to decrease further this year, with a projected decline of 2.5% to 6% in overall interest payment scale compared to 2024 [2] - The process of urban investment companies exiting government financing platforms has accelerated, with 4,680 platforms reduced last year, accounting for over two-thirds of the total reduction [2] - Urban investment companies have a significant amount of undeveloped land, with an estimated 360 million square meters of undeveloped land acquired from 2021 to March 2025 [2] Group 3 - Special land reserve bonds can significantly alleviate the mismatch between land reserve investment and fund recovery time, reducing fiscal pressure on local governments and improving cash flow for urban investment companies [3] - As of the end of May, over 120 billion yuan in special land reserve bonds have been issued across various regions [3] Group 4 - The issuance pace of replacement bonds has slowed since May, but experts expect an acceleration in the issuance of new special local government bonds in the second half of the year [5] - There is a strong demand for special bonds in key areas such as the real estate market, which is expected to drive local governments to enhance support for technology innovation, education, employment, and ecological protection [5] - The debt reduction work remains challenging, particularly in county-level regions where fiscal conditions are still tight, necessitating continued efforts to clear government debts and manage existing PPP projects [5]

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt risks have been effectively alleviated, benefiting from special bonds for land reserves amid the "de-inventory" context in the real estate market [1][5] Debt Replacement Policy Effectiveness - The Ministry of Finance increased the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan last year, with over 3.6 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued in the past seven months, including more than 1.6 trillion yuan this year [3] - Over 170 regions have announced achieving "full clearance" of hidden debts, with some areas converting high-interest debts to lower-interest ones [3] - The average cost of financing platform debts in Chongqing has decreased by 71 basis points since the debt replacement initiatives began [3] Accelerated Exit from Government Financing Platforms - The replacement policy has led to a significant acceleration in the exit of investment companies from government financing platforms, with 4,680 platforms reduced last year [4] - In the first five months of this year, 72 investment companies have announced their exit from these platforms [4] Special Bonds for Land Reserves - Special bonds for land reserves have played a role in alleviating debt pressure and improving cash flow for investment companies [6] - As of the end of May, over 120 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves have been issued, although actual issuance may differ from publicized figures [6] - The issuance of these bonds is expected to be accelerated to support the transformation of investment companies and improve the supply-demand relationship in the land market [6][7] Continuous Optimization of Debt Relief Measures - The issuance of replacement bonds has slowed since May, but there is an expectation for an increase in the issuance of special new bonds in the second half of the year [9] - There is a need for continued efforts to clear government debts and manage existing government and social capital cooperation projects [9] - Recommendations include optimizing debt relief policies with a focus on differentiated management and gradually unbinding investment project restrictions post-exit from key debt relief provinces [9]

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（一） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 债务是暂时的，但信用是永恒的，美债现在就像在"悬崖边上"。如何处理 36 万亿的巨额美债以及其带来的高额利息，无疑是美财长这份工作向贝森特下 的最大的战书。他也确实提出了许多或新或旧的方案来纾解财政压力。 ➢ 为什么 SLR 会影响美债市场？其中最核心的一点是在计算总杠杆暴露时， 商业银行的所有资产被"一视同仁"，并不会按风险进行调整，这与资本充足率等 风险加权的指标截然不同，在后者的计算中美债的信用风险权重往往是 0。除了 在资产端配置美债外，银行（或其子公司）也是美债主要的做市商，交易持仓的 美债同样受到杠杆率的约束，而这会直接影响到美债市场的流动性。 ➢ 此前在 2020 年疫情期间，美国监管部门就曾阶段性地允许美债和银行在美 联储的存款不纳入 SLR 计 ...

新华财经北京6月9日电（王柘）上周（2025年6月3日至6月6日）跨月后资金面维持宽松，央行预告10000亿元买断式逆回购操作呵护流 动性，收益率曲线整体下行，短端领涨，10年期国债收益率走低约2BP至1.65%。中美元首通话，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议也将于6月8 日至13日在英国举行，释放关税方面积极信号，提振市场风险情绪，债市反应较此前迟钝。 6月同业存单到期规模达4.2万亿元，较5月多增1.7万亿元，为近年来单月到期规模峰值。本周有逾1.2万亿元同业存单到期，单周规模为 2014年以来最大。除央行态度外，6月季末财政支出强度提升、理财资金季节性回流等将在一定程度上缓解银行存款流失压力。 行情回顾 2025年6月6日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年5月30日分别变 动-4.5BP、-3.6BP、-4.23BP、-1.81BP、-3.25BP、-1.65BP、-2BP、-5BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 5月30日 | 6月6日 | 变动B ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The national green electricity direct connection policy opens up cooperation space for waste incineration power generation and IDC [9][12] - The solid waste sector is expected to increase dividends and improve ROE through heat supply and IDC expansion [1][14] - The industry is entering a mature phase, leading to reduced capital expenditures and improved free cash flow, which enhances dividend payouts [14][17] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a decline in capital expenditures, leading to a significant improvement in free cash flow and increased dividends [14] - The waste incineration sector is seeing a trend towards cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which enhances ROE [14][15] Key Recommendations - Strongly recommended companies include: Huanlan Environment, Green Power, Yongxing Co., China Everbright Environment, Junxin Co., Yuehai Investment, and others [1] - Companies to watch include: Lian Tai Environmental Protection, Wangneng Environment, and Beikong Water Group [1] Policy Tracking - The green electricity direct connection policy requires new projects to have over 80% green electricity usage, which is expected to drive the integration of waste incineration power generation with data centers [12][13] - The policy aims to facilitate the supply of green electricity to high-energy-consuming industries, enhancing economic efficiency and stability [10][12] Financial Performance - The water service sector is projected to see stable growth and high dividends, with water price reforms expected to reshape growth and valuation [17][19] - The report highlights specific dividend payouts for companies like Junxin Co. (5.07 billion CNY), Green Power (4.18 billion CNY), and Huanlan Environment (6.52 billion CNY) for 2024 [14][17] Market Performance - The environmental protection and public utilities index rose by 3.53%, outperforming the broader market indices [50] - Notable stock performances include Yuhua Tian (up 55.7%) and Boschke (up 42.56%) [51]