证券研究报告 | 2025年09月16日 电子行业周报 优于大市 半导体自主可控再成焦点，继续推荐模拟、存储及算力 ASIC 半导体自主可控再成焦点，继续推荐模拟、存储及算力 ASIC。过去一周上证 上涨 1.52%，电子上涨 6.15%，子行业中元件上涨 11.33%，光学光电子上涨 0.85%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技分别上涨 5.31%、4.17%、 6.05%。继北美算力产业链高速增长的业绩兑现催化主线行情之后，半导体 在台积电上修年度业绩指引、中芯国际和华虹半导体在法说会上对未来订单 及景气乐观展望的背景下，迎来板块性快速上涨行情，此前我们一直重点推 荐的模拟（对美反倾销）和存储（涨价）近期均迎来较大行情催化，半导体 自主可控再度成为市场焦点。与此同时，Deepseek、阿里先后表态对国产算 力的适配力度和采购比重都有所加大，而国内先进制程的配套能力也在不断 提升，本土算力链正经历戴维斯双击。我们维持对于 2025 年电子板块在"宏 观政策周期、产业库存周期、AI 创新周期"共振下"估值扩张"的乐观判断， 推荐中芯国际、纳芯微、思瑞浦、圣邦股份、江海股份、翱捷科技、杰华特、 德明利、华 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a vibrant "technology rotation," with major sectors like semiconductors, computing power, humanoid robots, and the new energy vehicle industry chain showing strong performance [1][4][6] - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, with over 3600 stocks rising [1] - The semiconductor sector saw fluctuations, with companies like Cambricon Technologies initially rising over 6% but closing with a minimal gain of 0.01% [3] Group 2 - The computing power sector is gaining traction, with Huasheng Tiancheng hitting the daily limit and Zhongke Shuguang rising over 7% [4] - In the automotive industry chain, companies like Haon Automotive and Wanxiang Qianchao reached new highs, with Haon breaking the 200 yuan per share mark [6] - Despite a recent high, CATL's stock price slightly declined, closing at 353.42 yuan with a trading volume of 13.326 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - Analysts from Zheshang Securities emphasize the importance of a leading sector for market development, suggesting that the market's limited capital must work together to sustain momentum [8] - According to Fangzheng Securities, September is traditionally a strong month for sector rotation, with the market seeking opportunities amid rapid changes [9] - Fangzheng Securities recommends focusing on three main lines: semiconductor self-sufficiency, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine, highlighting specific catalysts and areas of interest within these sectors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a vibrant "technology blossom" with various sectors such as semiconductors, computing power, humanoid robots, and the new energy vehicle industry chain showing strong performance, despite the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around the 3900-point mark [1][6]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector is highlighted by the significant rise of Cambrian Technology, which surged over 6% to reclaim the 1500 yuan mark [1]. - The liquid cooling server concept has gained traction, with Chunzhong Technology seeing its stock price increase by 180.55% this year, despite the company not being directly involved in liquid cooling server production [1]. Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector has also seen notable gains, with Huasheng Tiancheng hitting the daily limit and Zhongke Shuguang rising over 7% [3]. Automotive Industry Chain - The automotive industry chain is strengthening, driven by Elon Musk's recent purchase of 2.57 million shares of Tesla, valued at approximately 1 billion USD, marking his first increase in holdings since February 2020 [4]. - Companies like Haon Electric and Wanxiang Qianchao have reached new highs, with Haon Electric surpassing 200 yuan per share [4]. Market Trends and Analysis - According to Zheshang Securities, the market's main line needs to lead the development of the trend, with a focus on sectors that show significant internal differentiation for potential rebound opportunities [6]. - Fangzheng Securities notes that September is a traditional window for strong industry rotation, with the market seeking opportunities amid rapid shifts [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining volume and trend, suggesting that sectors with significant global replacement potential should be prioritized [8]. Investment Recommendations - Fangzheng Securities recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Semiconductor self-control, driven by factors such as new U.S. sanctions and rising storage prices [8]. 2. New energy vehicles, particularly in smart driving and solid-state batteries, with expectations for large-scale deployment by 2026 [8]. 3. Biomedicine, with an emphasis on companies with rich overseas licensing pipelines and upcoming clinical data [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a "technology blossom" with sectors like semiconductors, computing power, humanoid robots, and the new energy vehicle industry chain showing strong performance [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating around the 3900-point mark, with major technology stocks performing well despite minor fluctuations [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks are gaining traction, with companies like Cambricon Technologies seeing a price increase of over 6%, returning to the 1500 yuan mark [1] - The liquid cooling server concept is also gaining attention, with Chunzhong Technology's stock price increasing by 180.55% this year, despite the company not directly involved in liquid cooling server production [1] Group 3: Automotive Sector - The automotive industry chain is strengthening, highlighted by Elon Musk's recent purchase of 2.57 million shares of Tesla, valued at approximately 1 billion USD [4] - Stocks like Haon Automotive and Wanxiang Qianchao are reaching new highs, with Haon Automotive surpassing 200 yuan per share [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Zheshang Securities emphasizes the importance of a leading sector for market development, suggesting that concentrated stock price increases indicate a strong market trend [6] - The report indicates that the market is likely to rotate and seek opportunities, particularly in sectors with significant internal differentiation [7] Group 5: Key Investment Themes - Fangzheng Securities identifies three main investment themes: 1. Semiconductor self-control, focusing on analog chips and storage modules [8] 2. New energy vehicles, particularly in smart driving and solid-state batteries [8] 3. Biomedicine, with an emphasis on companies with rich overseas licensing pipelines [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a valuation expansion driven by increased capital expenditure in computing power, particularly in North America and domestic markets, leading to a robust growth outlook for 2025 [1][2][3] - The global analog chip industry is entering an upward cycle, with significant growth in demand from domestic companies as they accelerate the replacement of foreign products [1][4][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chips, which is expected to benefit domestic manufacturers and enhance the pace of local substitution [4] - The semiconductor sector is currently in a phase of mild recovery, with a focus on PCB, optical modules, and servers, reflecting a strong market sentiment [2][3] - Domestic companies like Deepseek, Alibaba, and Baidu are increasing their procurement of domestic computing power solutions, indicating a shift towards local sourcing [2][3] Storage Sector Highlights - Recommended companies in the storage sector include Demingli, Jiangbolong, Baiwei, and Zhaoyi Innovation, which are expected to benefit from rising storage prices and the trend towards domestic semiconductor independence [1][6] - The storage market is witnessing price increases, particularly in DDR4 and LPR DDR4, driven by the cessation of older process production [2][11] - The storage industry is projected to experience a recovery, with significant growth opportunities in enterprise applications and mobile devices, indicating a potential market size of $800 billion for domestic manufacturers [10][14] Analog Chip Sector Developments - The analog chip market is expected to see a significant increase in both volume and price, with a focus on new products that require substantial R&D investment [5] - Major players like TI and ADI have reported a turnaround in revenue after several quarters of decline, indicating a positive trend for the global analog chip market [4][5] ASIC and Computing Power Recommendations - Key companies in the ASIC sector include Aojie Technology and Chip Origin, which are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in capital expenditure in computing power [1][7] - The ASIC market is showing positive trends, with significant revenue growth reported by companies like Broadcom, which saw a substantial increase in AI semiconductor revenue [17][18] Domestic Semiconductor Companies - SMIC continues to outperform international peers with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5% in Q2 2025, benefiting from the trend towards high-end chip localization [9] - Leading domestic analog chip companies like Sanbang have shown potential for growth, with significant revenue increases expected in industrial and automotive sectors [8] Future Trends and Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [22] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential, including Demingli, Jiangbolong, Baiwei, and Zhaoyi Innovation, as well as leading firms in the ASIC sector [27] Important Events and Market Sentiment - Recent events such as storage price increases, the expansion of the U.S. entity list, and the anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chips are significantly impacting market sentiment and stock performance [26] - The semiconductor sector is currently lagging behind the AI sector in terms of stock performance, presenting potential investment opportunities [26]

点击 最 下方 "在看"和" "并分享，"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 引言 在人工智能、 5G 通信、高性能计算和自动驾驶技术飞速发展的今天，芯片已成为推动全球科技进步的 核心引擎。然而，在每一颗高端芯片的背后，都 离不开一项被称为 " 隐形核心 " 的关键材料 —— ABF 胶膜 （ Ajinomoto Build-up Film ） 。这种由日本味之素公司几乎垄断的环氧树脂基绝缘薄膜，虽不为 人熟知，却是实现芯片高密度互联、高速传输和高可靠性的基础。它不仅是英特尔、 AMD 、英伟达等 巨头高端处理器的 " 标配 " ，更在全球半导体产业链中扮演着不可替代的角色。 当前，中国正全力推进半导体产业自主可控战略，而 ABF 胶膜作为 " 卡脖子 " 环节之一，其国产化进 程牵动着整个高端封装领域的命脉。本文将从 技术原理、市场与格局、产业链结构、技术壁垒、未来 方向及投资逻辑 等多个维度，全面剖析 ABF 胶膜的发展现状与国产突围路径，旨在为 行业参与者、投 资者和政策制定者 提供一份深入而系统的参考。 目录 一、 ABF 胶膜基本概况： 芯片封装的关键 " 黏合剂 " 1 、 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - 32 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard today, with 17 seeing net purchases and 15 experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases by institutions were: Industrial Fulian (338 million), Dongcai Technology (245 million), and Jingwang Electronics (240 million) [1] Group 2: Semiconductor and Storage Industry - Jingwang Electronics had one institution net purchase of 240 million [2] - The company covers a few product types including RPCB, FPC, and MPCB [2] - The storage market is experiencing a price increase, with SanDisk announcing a 10% price hike across all channels and consumer products, indicating a potential new pricing cycle [3] - The demand for storage is driven by AI applications and strong needs in data centers, while supply is tightening due to production shifts and financial difficulties of some suppliers [3] - The establishment of Changchun's third phase project is significant for China's semiconductor industry, aiming to break the monopoly of Samsung and Hynix in the NAND market [3] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Yushen Co. is a leading third-party logistics service provider in the aluminum industry [4] - Hunan Silver focuses on silver smelting and processing, also recovering various valuable metals [4] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (89%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September, which could positively impact industrial metal prices [4] - Domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase, indicating marginal improvement in economic conditions [4] - Industrial metal social inventory is expected to decrease, potentially driving prices higher [4]

Market Overview - On September 12, the storage sector experienced a significant opening surge, with companies like Deminor hitting the daily limit, and others such as Dongxin Co., Jiangbolong, and others seeing substantial increases [1] Company Insights - **Xingsen Technology (002436.SZ)**: A pioneer in the domestic IC packaging substrate industry, with applications in mobile memory modules [3] - **Deminor (001309.SZ)**: Transitioning from losses and planning to reduce holdings; has established a comprehensive storage product matrix including mobile storage and solid-state drives [3] - **Dongxin Co. (688110.SS)**: One of the few companies in mainland China providing a full range of storage chips including NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and DRAM [3] - **Jiangbolong (301308.SZ)**: A leading domestic storage module company, with memory products covering mainstream types like LDDR memory modules [3] - **Beiyi Innovation (603986.SS)**: A leader in the storage field, focusing on the development and sales of memory chips and microcontrollers, ranking first globally in non-foundry Flash supply [3] Industry Trends - Major US storage leaders like Micron and SanDisk saw collective gains, with SanDisk announcing a 10% price increase across all channels for consumer products, indicating a potential new pricing cycle due to changing supply-demand dynamics [5][6] - The global DRAM market size increased approximately 17% quarter-on-quarter to $30.9 billion in Q2 2025, driven by the rise of generative AI and increasing demand for DRAM contracts and HBM shipments [6] - Nvidia's launch of the RubinCPX GPU aims to enhance speed in handling massive data, utilizing GDDR7 memory, which could lead to increased demand for DRAM [5][6] - The establishment of Changchun's third phase company marks a significant step in China's semiconductor industry, potentially breaking the monopoly of Samsung and SK Hynix in the NAND market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant rally, with major indices rebounding strongly, driven by multiple factors including external influences from the US tech sector and internal improvements in cash flow for listed companies [1][2][3] Market Performance - On September 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 5.15% [1] - Over 4,200 stocks in the market saw gains, with AI-related stocks leading the charge [1] Factors Driving Market Growth - External factors include a major US tech company's substantial earnings increase due to a surge in AI cloud service demand, which ignited market sentiment and led to a return to the AI theme in A-shares [2] - The US non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations raised the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts, alongside expectations of RMB appreciation and improved PPI, resulting in continued foreign investment inflows into the Chinese market [2] - The International Financial Association reported that foreign investors injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, marking the highest inflow in nearly a year [2] Internal Market Dynamics - The technology sector had previously undergone a significant correction, and with the recent catalysts, many stocks rebounded from prior adjustments [2] - Listed companies are seeing improvements in operating cash flow, with a decline in capital expenditures and an increase in free cash flow, enhancing their long-term intrinsic value [2] - The current low interest rate environment is encouraging residents to shift investments towards equity assets, indicating potential for further price appreciation [2] Future Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to maintain a long-term positive trend, with a focus on domestic demand and potential policy measures to stimulate growth [4] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a downward trend in risk-free returns, accelerated capital market reforms, and stabilization in US-China relations, all contributing to a gradual increase in market indices [4] Investment Focus Areas - Key sectors to watch include AI, Hong Kong internet stocks, "anti-involution" policies, and non-bank financials [5][6] - Specific investment opportunities are identified in construction materials, steel, photovoltaics, traditional Chinese medicine, lithium, and offline retail, particularly in relation to supply-side reforms [5] - The AI sector remains a focal point due to its strong fundamental outlook, with significant demand for AI chips and domestic semiconductor production expansion [6] - Non-bank financials are also highlighted as a sector with potential for recovery and growth, particularly those meeting low PE and PB criteria [6]

Core Insights - Since 2025, private equity securities products have shown significant profitability, with an average return of 20.41%, and stock strategy products achieving an impressive average return of 15.38% [1] - As of August 31, there are 10,135 private equity securities products with performance records, of which 9,208 have generated positive returns, resulting in a high positive return ratio of 90.85% [1] - Among various strategies, stock strategies have outperformed, benefiting from the structural market trends in A-shares, with 6,473 stock strategy products recording an average return of 25.38% and a positive return ratio of 93.09% [1] Stock Strategy Analysis - Within stock strategies, quantitative long strategies have excelled in the mid and small-cap market, with 1,303 products showing a positive return ratio of 96.24% and an average return of 31.84% [2] - In contrast, subjective long strategies have a positive return ratio of 92.68% but a lower average return of 25.62%, indicating a significant performance gap compared to quantitative strategies [2] - Multi-asset strategies follow closely with an average return of 15.61%, primarily due to timely allocation to stock assets, with 1,279 products showing a positive return ratio of 89.91% [2] Market Outlook - The rise in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy adjustments, improved liquidity, and enhanced economic fundamentals, as analyzed by Fidelity International's economist Liu Peiqian [2] - Upcoming tourism expenditure data and weekly real estate transaction data are expected to serve as important indicators for observing the pace of economic recovery [2] - Looking ahead, the market is anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with a gradual shift towards large-cap growth stocks, focusing on sectors with low penetration rates such as AI computing power, semiconductor autonomy, solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, satellites, controllable nuclear fusion, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]