消息面上，大国科技领域博弈升级。10月8日，美众议院"特别委员会"发布涉华半导体出口管制重要报 告；10月10日，中国市场监管总局对高通立案调查，因其收购Autotalks涉嫌违反反垄断法；10 月10 日 特朗普发文表示将对中国加征100%关税，并对关键软件产品实施新的出口管制；10月15日-17日，2025 湾区半导体产业生态博览会将在深圳举办，深圳市发改委主任表示，新凯来将带来惊喜。 浙商证券指出，算力已成为推动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的新引擎，半导体自主可控刻不容缓，我国 本土制造、半导体设备、算力芯片等有望借此窗口期加速成长。华西证券则指出，稀土管制政策首次覆 盖半导体，或对海外芯片制程有所影响。 编辑/rice 10月13日消息，港股半导体股早盘逆市走高，中国"晶圆代工双雄"强势领涨，截至发稿， 涨9.3%，报 89.35港元； 涨4.38%，报80.95港元。 | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌幅 ◆ | 成交額 | 總市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01347 | 華虹半導體 | 89.350 | +9.30% | 40.86億 ...

10月13日早盘，港股三大指数集体下行，恒生科技指数跌幅再度扩大至2%。盘面上，科网股普跌，黄 金股走弱。A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数下跌，持仓股中，哔哩哔哩、 舜宇光学科技、快手、联想集团等领跌，金山软件、华虹半导体、中芯国际等少数公司上涨，其中金山 软件一度大涨14%。 个股方面，截至发文，华虹半导体涨超6%，中芯国际涨超3%。开源证券指出，大国科技博弈背景下， 半导体产业链自主可控逻辑加强。东吴证券同样认为，管制利好国产半导体设备份额提升，国内晶圆厂 制程的核心工艺设备环节有望快速提升；此外存储持续涨价、国内先进制程积极扩产、国产算力发展均 带来制造端投资机会。 公开信息显示，截至10月10日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为23.82 倍，处于指数发布以来约34.04%的估值分位点，仍处于历史相对低估区间，而高弹性、高成长等特性 使其具备更大的向上动能。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局中 国AI核心资产。（场外联接A/C：013402/013403） 兴业证券表示，判断特朗普在APEC会议前TA ...

Overall Market Outlook - The A-share market may continue its upward trend into the fourth quarter of 2025, but the momentum is expected to weaken, leading to increased volatility and a gradual rise within a wide range [1][13][14] - The investment style in the fourth quarter is likely to be more balanced compared to the third quarter, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical sectors, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1][14] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector remains a key focus, particularly in areas such as semiconductors, AI, robotics, digital economy, communication equipment, and defense industries [2][15] - There is an expectation of internal differentiation within the technology sector, with a need for investors to be cautious and prepared for potential risks associated with crowded trades [2][15] - Performance factors will be crucial for capital allocation, with a preference for technology stocks that demonstrate structural performance highlights or growth expectations [2][15] Cyclical and Consumption Sectors - The cyclical sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic conditions, particularly in areas like construction materials, coal, and metals [8][15] - Domestic consumption is highlighted as a potential area for investment, especially in sectors catering to the aging population and younger consumers [15] - High-dividend stocks may see renewed interest as their yield becomes attractive again, making the fourth quarter a potential window for positioning in dividend-paying assets [8][15] Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a cautious and conservative investment approach, suggesting that investors should take profits when appropriate and avoid chasing high prices [3][14] - Structural opportunities should be prioritized, with a focus on stocks that have actual performance or future earnings support, while avoiding purely speculative stocks [3][15] - The overall market sentiment is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. tariff policies and domestic economic recovery efforts [12][13]

智通财经APP获悉，芯片股逆市走高，截至发稿，华虹半导体(01347)涨2.2%，报83.55港元；中芯国际 (00981)涨1.61%，报78.8港元。 浙商证券指出，算力已成为推动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的新引擎，半导体自主可控刻不容缓，我国 本土制造、半导体设备、算力芯片等有望借此窗口期加速成长。华西证券则指出，稀土管制政策首次覆 盖半导体，或对海外芯片制程有所影响。 消息面上，大国科技领域博弈升级。10月8日，美众议院"特别委员会"发布涉华半导体出口管制重要报 告；10月10日，中国市场监管总局对高通立案调查，因其收购Autotalks涉嫌违反反垄断法；10 月10 日 特朗普发文表示将对中国加征100%关税，并对关键软件产品实施新的出口管制；10月15日-17日，2025 湾区半导体产业生态博览会将在深圳举办，深圳市发改委主任表示，新凯来将带来惊喜。 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the electronics industry is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The electronics industry index experienced a weekly decline of 2.5%, with optical and optoelectronics showing a slight increase of 0.9%, while consumer electronics and semiconductors fell by 3.6% and 3.1% respectively [3] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, leading to a drop in major U.S. stock indices, including a 3.6% decline in the Nasdaq [3] - New product launches in AI terminals, such as Meta's AR glasses and Tesla's FSD v14, indicate a growing market for AI applications [4] - The demand for storage solutions is expected to enter a "super cycle," with significant partnerships being formed between major companies like Samsung and OpenAI [5] - TSMC reported a substantial year-on-year revenue increase of 31.4% in September, highlighting the strong demand in the semiconductor sector [5] Market Review - The electronics industry index saw a decline of 2.5% during the week of October 6-10, 2025, with notable movements in various sectors [3] - Major companies like Nvidia and AMD are experiencing renewed demand due to advancements in AI models, which are increasing computational power requirements [4] - The semiconductor supply chain is facing increased scrutiny due to U.S. export controls, which may impact companies like Qualcomm and others involved in the semiconductor industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in October, driven by stable inflows of external funds and anticipated rebounds in earnings growth across various industries due to low base effects from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - The market is likely to continue the trend observed in September, with a low-slope upward movement [1]. - October marks the window for Q3 earnings reports, which are expected to show a rebound in profitability for most industries, enhancing market confidence [1]. - Major sectors of focus include new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, which have seen increased attention [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Recommendations - Key areas of interest include AI computing, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, alongside the "anti-involution" theme which may see policy support [2]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is favored due to ongoing industry trends and potential catalysts such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [3]. Group 3: Broker Recommendations - As of October 10, 2025, 40 brokers have disclosed their top stock picks, involving 267 A-share companies, with many stocks being recommended by multiple brokers [3][4]. - The electronics sector leads with 61 companies included in the October broker picks, marking its 20th consecutive month as the most recommended sector [6][7]. - Other sectors with significant representation include power equipment, non-ferrous metals, automotive, machinery, and biomedicine, each with over 20 companies recommended [6][7]. Group 4: Notable Stocks and Performance - 24 stocks have been jointly recommended by three or more brokers, with notable mentions including Luxshare Precision, Keqing Network, and Zhaoyi Innovation, each recommended by six brokers [9]. - Zhaoyi Innovation, a leader in storage chips, has seen substantial institutional interest, with public funds holding nearly 27 billion yuan and northbound funds over 5.1 billion yuan [9]. - The stock of Zijin Mining, a leading non-ferrous metal company, has gained over 99% in the first three quarters of 2025, attracting significant attention from brokers [16]. Group 5: Industry Distribution of Recommended Stocks - The distribution of recommended stocks shows a notable increase in the number of picks from the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors compared to the previous month, with increases of 17, 11, and 9 stocks respectively [6][7]. - Conversely, sectors such as non-bank financials, food and beverage, and telecommunications saw a decrease in recommended stocks, with non-bank financials dropping by 13 stocks [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the semiconductor equipment sector [4] Core Insights - The U.S. may expand export restrictions on semiconductor equipment, which could benefit domestic manufacturers in China [1] - U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers heavily rely on the Chinese market, with significant revenue contributions from China [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may accelerate the push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [2] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are making progress in high-end equipment sectors, with several notable companies emerging [3] - Investment suggestions focus on domestic alternatives in the semiconductor equipment supply chain [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Export Restrictions - The U.S. House of Representatives proposed nine recommendations to expand export restrictions on semiconductor equipment to China, affecting both basic and advanced chip manufacturing [1] Section 2: Revenue Dependence on China - In 2024, the top 10 global semiconductor equipment manufacturers are projected to generate over $110 billion in revenue, with the top five accounting for nearly $90 billion, representing 85% of the total [2] - Major U.S. companies like AMAT, LAM, and KLA derive significant portions of their revenue from the Chinese market, with sales exceeding $200 billion collectively [2] Section 3: Domestic Equipment Manufacturers - A number of domestic companies are emerging in the semiconductor equipment sector, achieving high localization rates in certain equipment categories [3] - The report highlights the need for continued focus on domestic alternatives to mitigate reliance on foreign technology [3] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers and related supply chain components as potential investment opportunities [3]

很多人问我对红十月怎么看。券商喊得很凶，说全球风险偏好回暖，美联储要降息，AI产业又有催 化；说过去十年十月开门红的概率有七成。 这种统计学叙事，孙少睡我一般当天气预报看。出门带不带伞，看得还是天色。 沪指创了近十年新高，但我觉得两市成交额放了那么大量，结果就顶出这么个涨幅，还是有点虚。上是 上去了，但脸也白了，腿也抖了。但是虚嘛，也不用太担心，毕竟多少年都是这么虚过来的。 市场的钱现在就集中在几个地方，AI算力、半导体、创新药。逻辑都很硬。 AI的故事还在停不下来地那么讲，半导体自主可控是必须要做的事，创新药是老龄化社会的刚需。 但硬逻辑不代表马上就能涨，也不代表什么都能涨。现在就是典型的结构性行情。水在几个洼地里打 转，其他地方都是干的。 不在那几个洼地里就只能看着别人洗澡，自己哗哗地干搓泥儿。 9月份的PMI比上个月升了点，是49.8%，但还在荣枯线下面挣扎。生产指数回到了51.2%。 这数字怎么翻译呢？就是复苏还是复苏了一点的，但要说及格，那还得再发展发展。想买东西的人还是 不够多。 这种宏观情绪会传导到大洋彼岸。美联储那帮人也在纠结。纽约联储出来放风，说因为担心劳动力市场 放缓，支持今年再降息。 听 ...

10月9日，A股主要指数高开高走，沪指涨1.32%报3933.97点，深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨0.73%， 科创50指数涨2.93%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3933.97 | +51.19 | +1.32% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 13725.56 +199.05 | | +1.47% | | 3990666 | 创业板指 | 3261.82 | +23.66 | +0.73% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1539.08 | +43.79 | +2.93% | 盘面上，国庆期间国际金价屡创新高，贵金属、黄金板块走高，四川黄金、中金黄金等涨停；我国核聚 变领域近期取得的"里程碑"进展，可控核聚变板块爆发，国光电气等十余股涨停；商务部对境外相关稀 土物项实施出口管制，稀土板块活跃，北方稀土、中国稀土涨停；风电设备走高，运达股份涨超9%； 存储芯片、半导体板块上涨，灿芯股份20CM涨停；小金属、有色金属、锂矿概念及超导概念等涨幅居 前。 另外，年国 ...