Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - With the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing, their operations are gradually resuming, and the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmic arrival of pure benzene at ports has increased pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories and suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL operations dropping further from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand remains weak [3]. - Overseas, South Korea's Daehan, Lotte, and Hyundai have officially announced a merger and will shut down Lotte's 1.1 million - ton cracking unit. Attention should be paid to whether Lotte's styrene units in South Korea will stop production. In China, port inventories have risen again. Although styrene is still in a low - operation maintenance stage and the resumption plan has been postponed, downstream operations during the off - season are still low. The operation of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but inventory pressure remains, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while its operation stays at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the price of the pure benzene main futures contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [7][10][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene units, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [18][21][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Relevant figures involve the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [38][40][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][56][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures cover the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular - spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][71][75]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is weak [1] - PTA: Trend is weak [1] - MEG: Hold long MEG and short PX positions [1] Core Views - For PX, close long positions, take long MEG and short PX positions, and pay attention to calendar spread reversal arbitrage positions due to the impact of the sharp decline in US MX prices [5] - For PTA, close long positions at high valuations and take long MEG and short PTA hedging positions [6] - For MEG, close short positions and reversal arbitrage positions as the supply - demand balance sheet improves in December, and take long MEG and short PX hedging positions [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 27, the PX price fell. The 12 - month MOPJ was estimated at $559/ton CFR. The PX valuation on November 27 was $826/ton, down $3 from November 26 [3] - PTA: The 250 - million - ton PTA device of Honggang restarted, the 120 - million - ton PTA device of Zhongtai increased its load. The PTA load was adjusted to 73.7% by Thursday, and the current PTA operating rate was around 79.3% [3] - MEG: A 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China restarted, and another 100 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China plans to shut down in early December [3] Production and Operation Data - As of November 27, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 73.13% (up 2.46% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 72.03% (up 6.2% from the previous period) [5] - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.6%, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6718, 4632, 3873, 6162, and 447.6 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 52, - 23, - 102, and 2.6, and percentage changes of - 0.83%, - 1.11%, - 0.59%, - 1.63%, and 0.58% [2] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $826.33/ton, 4615 yuan/ton, 3889 yuan/ton, $566/ton, and $64.28/barrel respectively, with changes of - $2.67, - 32 yuan, - 21 yuan, $8.38, and $0.73 [2] - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 261.8, 195.49, 203.75, 57.31, and - 4.34 respectively, with changes of 2.09, 20.9, - 6.12, - 10.22, and 0 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4064 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The operating rates for cement and asphalt have dropped to the lowest level in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 0.47%, rubber up by 0.34%, coke up by 3.29%, coking coal down by 0.95%, and iron ore up by 1.40% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization, cement, and asphalt operating rates have decreased by 0.22 percentage points, 10.80 percentage points, and 8.8 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remain at low profit levels, with flat glass operating rate at 74.86% [6] - The weekly price change for titanium dioxide and glass is 0.00% [6] - The profit margins for flat glass and titanium dioxide are -58 yuan/ton and -1526 yuan/ton respectively [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper down by 1.35%, and aluminum down by 2.42% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 71.07%, a decrease of 2.61 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 329,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.46% [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 19.55% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 4161 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 9.96% [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.03 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1122.79 points this week, an increase of 2.63% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the US is 76.20%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 3.77%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at -1.65% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 40.01% and 85.11% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Do not chase high prices in the short term; recommend closing long positions, shorting PXN on rallies, and going long MEG while shorting PX [1][6] - PTA: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices; recommend closing long positions [1][7] - MEG: Supply - demand pattern improves, reduce short positions; recommend going long MEG while shorting PX and taking profit on short and reverse - spread positions [1][7] 2) Core Viewpoints - PX: Although the PX - naphtha spread has improved and the profit margin of integrated producers is good, the domestic and Asian PX operating rates have increased. After the PXN reaches a high level and market hype factors are digested, the upward momentum of the short - term unilateral price weakens [3][6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate continues to decline, and the polyester device has a certain demand for it, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. However, the recent surge in the number of warehouse receipts indicates a weak supply - demand pattern and limited upward momentum [7] - MEG: Multiple MEG devices have reduced their loads or stopped production, and the supply is expected to shrink. The polyester device has a high operating rate, and the inventory structure is expected to reverse [7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: On November 24, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6772, 4680, 3884, 6242, and 447.9 respectively, with daily increases of 0.33%, 0.30%, 2.00%, 1.30%, and 0.11% [2] - **Spot Data**: On November 24, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 825.67 dollars/ton, 4625 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, 562.62 dollars/ton, and 63.66 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Processing Fee Data**: On November 24, the PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 261.8 dollars/ton, 195.49 yuan/ton, 203.75 yuan/ton, 57.31 yuan/ton, and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively [2] Market Dynamics - PX: Asian PX prices rose on November 24, with CFR Unv1/China at 825.67 dollars/ton, and the PX - naphtha spread continued to improve. Market participants are generally optimistic about the PX outlook in the first half of 2026 [2][4] - Naphtha: On November 24, the C + F Japan naphtha index rose by 75 cents/ton to 562.625 dollars/ton [3] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon [5] - MEG: On November 24, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 732,000 tons, remaining flat compared with the previous period [5] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak over the weekend and on November 24, and the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on November 24 were average [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: 1 (slightly strong) [6] Operating Rates - PX: The domestic PX operating rate is 89.5% (+2.7%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%) [6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate has dropped to 72% (-3.7%) [7] - MEG: The coal - based MEG operating rate has dropped from 83% to 65%, and the domestic weekly supply of ethylene glycol is about 405,000 tons [7][8] - Polyester: The polyester device operating rate is maintained at around 91.3% [7][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market declined with a weakening basis and 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices decreased, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The propane - civil gas spread narrowed. Warehouse receipts decreased. The overseas paper - based prices dropped, but the spread strengthened. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads changed slightly. The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed. Profits of Shandong PDH to propylene and alkylation units improved slightly, while MTBE production profits fluctuated and export profits remained good. There was an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, and inventory accumulation at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate decreased, and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, civil demand is increasing, but there are expected to be many arrivals in December. The Middle East supply is tight, and the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see before the CP official price announcement. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, prices were 4305 (-10) in East China, 4400 (+60) in Shandong, and 4405 (+5) in South China. The price of ether - after carbon four was 4400 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 6 (+23), and the 01 - 02 spread was 98 (-10). FEI was 501.5 (+1.5) and CP was 489.5 (+7.5) dollars/ton [1] 2. Weekly Views - The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices fell. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas spread narrowed. There were 4561 warehouse receipts (-54). Overseas paper - based prices dropped, and the spread strengthened. The gas - oil ratio between North Asia and North America changed little. The PG - CP spread was 126 (-2), and the PG - FEI spread was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North America, and AFEI offshore discounts were flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to propylene improved slightly, the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor, and the MTBE production profit fluctuated with good export profits. Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, and inventory accumulated at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1]