2026 年 01 月 29 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：67 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

1月28日，中国重汽（03808.HK）市值突破1000亿港元，成为商用车行业估值重塑的重要标志。这一突 破源于公司在新能源转型、全球化布局与核心技术攻坚等维度的系统性推进。市场分析指出，伴随行业 景气度回升与公司体系化优势持续释放，中国重汽成长性愈发确定，正步入业绩与估值同步提升的"戴 维斯双击"通道。 新能源业务加速放量，全场景布局显成效 在"以旧换新"政策落地与中短途运输电动化提速的双重催化下，国内新能源重卡市场进入高速增长期。 公开数据显示，2025年国内新能源重卡销量达23.11万辆，同比增长182%，行业进入高速增长通道。 面对行业机遇，中国重汽紧跟技术迭代与市场需求变化，全方位布局纯电动、混合动力、氢燃料电池三 大技术路线，以纯电动路线为核心驱动力，混动路线和燃料电池路线为有力支撑，打造差异化竞争优 势。 如在纯电领域，公司已构建覆盖牵引、自卸、搅拌等全系列重卡与轻卡产品矩阵，同步布局快充、换电 模式破解里程焦虑，如陆续推出的汕德卡423kWh纯电自卸车、豪沃TX612kWh纯电自卸车等新能源新 品，进一步完善了全场景产品布局。 数据显示，中国重汽新能源业务已步入收获期，2025年新能源重卡销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a significant rally, with notable stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 6% and reaching historical highs, while others like Bilibili and Li Auto also see gains exceeding 3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by over 2%, surpassing the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Since September, the Hong Kong new energy vehicle sector has faced a decline, with Li Auto experiencing a maximum drop of nearly 40% [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Li Auto is restarting its robot development to build an AI ecosystem [1] - Xiaomi Group has initiated a large-scale share buyback, with a total repurchase amount exceeding 2.3 billion Hong Kong dollars this year [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The market is expected to benefit from a combination of domestic demand, media, and AI industry catalysts as the Chinese New Year approaches [1] - Investment tools to consider include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) and its connecting fund (025806), which enhances exposure to the biotechnology sector while reducing allocations in automotive and retail [1] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH) and its connecting fund (013172) are highlighted for their high AI application content, covering major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD.com, and NetEase, with a combined holding ratio of 36% for the BAT stocks [1]

截至午间收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨3.3%，中证稀土产业指数上涨1.2%。 中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩；"十五五"规划建议"坚 持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业有望迎周 期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, with the precious metals ETF (招商159690) experiencing a rise of 4.12% and reaching a peak of 4.85% [1] - The current spot gold price has increased by 1%, reaching a historical high of $5234.71 per ounce, indicating strong market demand and price momentum [2] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the Polish central bank is shifting its strategy to focus on absolute tonnage for gold reserves rather than the proportion of total reserves, indicating a reduced sensitivity to price fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes the growth potential and profitability of the WanGuo Gold Group, particularly due to the expansion plans of JinLing Mining and the Solomon Gold Mine, which is set to increase its processing capacity significantly by 2028 [3] - The top three weighted components of the precious metals ETF are copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), which together account for nearly 60% of the ETF's composition, indicating a high concentration in leading resource companies [3] - The ETF is described as having a "leverage property," acting as a "cycle amplifier," where rising prices of metals lead to substantial profit increases due to fixed costs in mining operations, resulting in a "Davis double-hit" scenario where net asset value increases significantly [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, with the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) reaching a historical high, reflecting a significant increase of 3.31% and peaking at 3.84% [2] - Major stocks in the sector, including silver and various gold mining companies, have shown substantial gains, indicating robust market activity and investor interest [2] Group 2 - Zhongjin Gold announced an impressive forecast for its 2025 annual performance, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.76% to 59.48% [3] - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 5.6 billion and 6.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 58.55% to 75.54% [3] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous rise in gold prices in 2025, showcasing the resilience of the gold sector amid macroeconomic changes [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining ETF has a high concentration in its top three weighted commodities: copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), which together account for nearly 60% of the ETF [3] - The ETF is described as having a "leverage property," acting as a "cycle amplifier" due to its concentrated investment in leading upstream resource companies, which allows profit margins to expand significantly when metal prices rise [3] - This results in a "Davis double-hit" scenario, where both profits and valuations are enhanced, leading to net asset value increases that can outpace the underlying commodity price increases [3]

据了解，有色矿业ETF招商(场内：159690；场外：026477)前三大权重品种铜（31%）、金（14%）、 铝（12%）合计占比近6成，龙头集中度高。还自带"杠杆属性"，被称为"周期放大器"：由于集中投资 上游资源龙头，在矿业公司成本相对固定时，有色金属价格上涨导致涨价部分几乎全是利润。因此形成 利润+估值双提升的"戴维斯双击"行情，净值涨幅数倍于商品本身。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 消息面，据 Bitget 行情信息，现货黄金站上 5190 美元/盎司，日内涨 0.24%。现货白银向上触及 114 美 元/盎司，日内涨 1.54%。国金证券首席策略分析师牟一凌认为，对于商品而言，资产配置属性驱动了 本轮的上涨且当前定价并不极致，对冲美元风险下黄金储备有望继续上升，且商品计价的黄金股相对其 他资源股较为低估，有修复需求。 1月28日，金银继续上攻！数据显示，截至10时15分，有色矿业ETF招商(159690)放量涨超3%，成分股 白银有色、湖南黄金涨停、西部黄金、山东黄金涨幅居前。 | 官 - | 代码 | 有色型(ETF招商159690成分喜观 | | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-23 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the establishment of its first overseas production facility in Cambodia, which will enhance its capacity to penetrate the European and American markets, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and profit [4][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a projected revenue of 10,422 million yuan for 2023, despite a slight decline in subsequent years, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantages, including proximity to raw material sources, competitive labor costs, and favorable trade policies that will facilitate market expansion [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10,422 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,396 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant increase of 89% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.75 yuan for 2023, with a gradual decline in the following years before recovering to 1.50 yuan by 2027 [5][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 99 billion yuan in 2025, 104 billion yuan in 2026, and 114 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 9 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 13 billion yuan respectively [10][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 2025 to 19% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintains a strong global presence, with nearly 60% of its sales coming from international markets, supported by a marketing network that spans over 180 countries [8]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 11.1x for 2026, which is lower than the average for comparable companies [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the establishment of its first overseas production facility in Cambodia, which will enhance its capacity to penetrate the European and American markets, leading to a simultaneous increase in volume and profit [7][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a projected revenue of 10,422 million yuan for 2023, despite a slight decline in subsequent years, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantages, including proximity to raw material sources, competitive labor costs, and favorable trade policies that will support its expansion efforts [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10,422 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13%. However, revenues are expected to decline by 3% in 2024 and 2025, before recovering to 10,406 million yuan in 2026 and 11,435 million yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,396 million yuan in 2023, with a significant year-on-year growth of 89%. This is expected to decline to 1,103 million yuan in 2024 and 949 million yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 1,121 million yuan in 2026 and 1,329 million yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with gross margins projected to increase from 17.9% in 2024 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost reductions [10][11]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintains a strong global presence, with nearly 60% of its sales coming from international markets, supported by a marketing network that spans over 180 countries [8]. - The establishment of the Cambodian factory is expected to produce 700,000 tires annually, with a significant portion allocated for high-performance tires aimed at the European and American markets [9][10]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 11.1x for 2026, which is lower than the average for comparable companies, indicating potential for growth [13][14].