Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, highlighting external shocks as either obstacles or opportunities [5] - It emphasizes the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, questioning which aspects are mere storytelling versus actual trends [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook indicates a significant shift in policy dynamics, with a focus on how "anti-involution" and the service industry can find solutions [5] - The macro monthly report anticipates changes in policies related to tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, particularly in June [11] - The article on inbound tourism highlights the rapid increase in countries eligible for visa-free entry, reflecting a broader trend of opening up [15] Economic Data Insights - The actual GDP year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 5.2% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024, with nominal GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [6] - Fixed asset investment is expected to show a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.0% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2024 [6] - The article notes a significant decline in real estate investment, projected at -10.6% for 2024 [6] Trade and Employment Insights - The article discusses the shift in export strategies, moving from emerging markets to a focus on the U.S. market [17] - It highlights the strong performance of U.S. non-farm employment, which exceeded expectations [22] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are noted, with significant trade deficits reported for various countries, including a $295.4 billion deficit with China [23] Policy and Market Trends - The article suggests that new policy tools for stabilizing growth are anticipated, with a focus on the potential emergence of innovative financial instruments [14] - The domestic shipping rates on the U.S.-West Coast are reported to be increasing, indicating a recovery in shipping prices [24] - The communication between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship amid ongoing trade discussions [27][28]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 在当前宏观政策积极发力稳增长的背景下，政策性金融工具备受关注。前两轮其成效显著，本轮新型工 具何时可能落地？资金投向又会有哪些新动向？本文分析，可供参考。 短期还有哪些稳增长工具值得期待？政策性金融工具或"呼之欲出"。 4月政治局会议对宏观政策做出新部署，货币政策率先在5月初落地，财政政策方面，政府债发行依旧保 持积极态势，短期内增量可能来源于政策性金融工具。 货币政策上，央行于 5月7日推出三大类货币政策 措施及十项具体举措。财政政策方面，除政府债净融资维持高位外，增量资金来源需关注政治局会议提 出的 "新型政策性金融工具"。 政策性金融工具可能在6月底落地，一方面源于发改委给出的指引，另一方面也和当前经济基本面稳健有 关。 国家发展改革委副主任表示，"力争6月底前下达2025年'两重'建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清 单，同时设立新型政策性金融工具。"另外，当前经济基本面表现稳健，5月乘联会乘用车零售同比 13.0%，出口相关指标也处于较高区间。 同时，5 月份以来，多地积极筹备项目并准备申报，召开新型政策性金融工具政策 ...

Group 1: Policy Developments - President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of US-China relations, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation in economic matters [1][2] - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to enhance government digital governance and service efficiency, addressing the issue of "data silos" [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins to improve ecological protection [4][5] Group 2: Urban Development Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, for urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion [7][8] - The initiative aims to improve urban infrastructure and promote sustainable urban development through various financing methods [8] Group 3: Human Resources and Manufacturing Integration - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security launched a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing sector, focusing on cities with advanced manufacturing bases [9][10] - The program aims to establish a standard system for human resources services in manufacturing and enhance regulatory measures against illegal practices [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated launch of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing economic growth, highlighting the potential funding directions and the lessons learned from previous rounds of such tools [2][45]. Group 1: Short-term Growth Stabilization Tools - The Politburo meeting in April outlined new macroeconomic policies, with monetary policy measures implemented in early May and continued active government bond issuance [3][46]. - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced by the end of June, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidance and a stable economic foundation [3][9]. - Local governments have begun preparing projects and holding policy briefings to align with the new financial tools, focusing on sectors like digital economy, artificial intelligence, and water conservancy projects [3][18]. Group 2: Characteristics and Usage of Policy Financial Tools - The first round of policy financial tools (2015-2017) involved "special construction bonds," which raised approximately 2 trillion yuan to support major projects, with a focus on agriculture, urban infrastructure, and manufacturing [4][48]. - The second round in 2022 included policy development financial tools that complemented major project capital needs, with an initial allocation of 300 billion yuan, later increased to 740 billion yuan [4][21]. - These tools exhibit a strong "leverage" effect, enabling the mobilization of additional credit or social capital, while also providing lower interest rates through fiscal subsidies to alleviate local government debt burdens [4][27]. Group 3: Innovations in New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools will emphasize support for technological innovation, particularly in the digital economy and artificial intelligence, marking a significant shift from previous rounds [5][31]. - Expanding consumer spending is also a potential focus area, aligning with the central bank's new initiatives to enhance service consumption and elderly care financing [6][33]. - Traditional investment areas, such as large-scale infrastructure projects, will remain a priority, particularly in sectors with high social benefits like water conservancy and transportation [6][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy initiatives in enhancing economic growth and environmental protection, particularly through data sharing and ecological compensation mechanisms [2][3][5]. Group 2 - On June 5, President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of maintaining a strong economic relationship between China and the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [2]. - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to improve the efficiency of government services and digital governance by promoting orderly data sharing and breaking down data silos [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, which will allocate compensation funds based on water quality assessments [5][6]. - The "Opinions on Further Improving the Horizontal Ecological Protection Compensation Mechanism" outlines seven key tasks to attract more social capital into ecological civilization construction, including establishing compensation mechanisms and expanding compensation areas [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities to implement urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion yuan, aimed at improving urban infrastructure and living conditions [9]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security initiated a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing industry, focusing on establishing service standards and combating illegal practices [10][11].

Core Insights - The establishment of new policy financial tools aims to transform policy dividends into development momentum, with an expected scale of around 500 billion yuan, potentially leveraging 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment [1][9]. Group 1: Project Acceleration - Multiple provinces, including Anhui, Henan, and Hunan, have quickly responded to the new policy financial tools by holding meetings to interpret policies and plan projects [2]. - In Hunan, a meeting emphasized the importance of policy banks in facilitating project approvals and ensuring timely implementation of land consolidation projects [2]. - Anhui's meetings focused on key sectors such as industry, culture, agriculture, and urban construction, aiming to systematically identify and plan projects [2]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The new policy financial tools are expected to diversify investment directions, particularly towards strategic emerging sectors like technology innovation and consumer infrastructure, differing from traditional tools that mainly focused on infrastructure [4]. - The tools are designed to address capital shortages in key project areas, with a focus on digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Mechanism - The new tools are characterized as "quasi-fiscal" instruments, primarily initiated by policy banks to address capital shortages in project construction, with a maximum capital injection of 50% of total project capital [7]. - The operational model of these tools is designed to enhance funding efficiency while minimizing fiscal burdens, as they rely on financial bond issuance and fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs [7][8]. Group 4: Expected Impact - The anticipated impact of the new policy financial tools includes a significant investment leverage effect, with projections suggesting they could drive 6 to 6.5 trillion yuan in effective investment, representing about 12% of the expected fixed asset investment in 2024 [9]. - Historical data indicates that previous policy financial tools have successfully mobilized substantial investments, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the new tools [9].

Group 1: Policy Tools Overview - The new policy financial tools are expected to be implemented by the end of June 2025, driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidance and a stable economic foundation[2] - The first round of policy financial tools (2015-2017) issued approximately 2 trillion yuan, primarily targeting infrastructure and agricultural projects[4] - The second round in 2022 involved 740 billion yuan, focusing on major projects including new infrastructure and technological upgrades[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May 2025, retail sales of passenger cars increased by 13.0% year-on-year, indicating robust consumer demand[14] - Export-related indicators remain strong, with port cargo throughput increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in the 17th week post-Spring Festival[14] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - New policy financial tools will support diverse sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumer services[6] - Traditional infrastructure projects, such as water conservancy and transportation, will continue to receive funding to enhance social benefits[6] Group 4: Leveraging Effects - Policy financial tools exhibit strong leverage effects, enabling the mobilization of additional credit and social capital to bolster economic growth[5] - The tools are characterized by low-interest rates due to fiscal subsidies, alleviating local governments' debt servicing pressures while promoting sustainable fiscal practices[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant "front-loading" of fiscal debt financing and expenditure structure, which has stabilized economic performance in the first half of the year [1][2][4] - From January to April 2025, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2%, indicating strong fiscal support for the economy [2][8] - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds, with net financing of 4.8 trillion yuan from January to April, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][21] Group 2 - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been financed by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32] - The issuance of treasury bonds has accelerated, with 42.7% of the budget target achieved by May 24, 2025, significantly higher than the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2024 [3][21] - The government is expected to maintain high levels of net financing through the third quarter, with projections of 2.3 trillion yuan in the second quarter and 3.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter [4][35] Group 3 - The government may introduce incremental policies to smooth fiscal expenditure and ensure the achievement of annual economic goals, especially given uncertainties in economic recovery in the second half of the year [5][37] - Policy tools such as budgetary and non-budgetary measures will be utilized to stabilize economic fluctuations, with a focus on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment as key areas for fiscal support [6][50] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by reducing burdens and increasing income, with significant potential for recovery in service consumption, which currently stands at only 87.7% of historical trends [50][51]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant front-loading of fiscal debt financing, which has positively impacted expenditure performance. From January to April, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2% [2][8][72] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds. From January to April, the net financing of government debt was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming the core support for broad fiscal expenditure [3][21][73] - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt. As of the end of May, 6.3 trillion yuan has been net financed, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32][74] Group 2 - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is not due to improved revenue, as the cumulative fiscal revenue from January to April showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, mainly due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues [2][14][72] - The government is expected to maintain a high level of net financing for government debt until the end of September, with the second quarter's net financing expected to increase by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the third quarter maintaining a historically high level of 3.8 trillion yuan [4][35][74] - To smooth out economic fluctuations in the second half of the year, the government may introduce incremental policies to stabilize broad fiscal expenditure growth, especially given the uncertainties in economic recovery [5][37][74] Group 3 - Various policies are available to mitigate fluctuations in the second half of the year, including flexible budgetary tools and policy financial instruments that can be deployed quickly. The effectiveness of these tools has been validated in practice since 2022 [6][39][74] - The focus of incremental funding will be on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to stimulate consumption [7][50][74] - The government is likely to consider additional funding if fiscal revenue falls short of budget targets, which could impact the support of fiscal expenditure for nominal GDP [7][44][74]