证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业数据点评 信贷增量弱、结构改善 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 行业评级：增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 社融增速趋缓，信贷结构改善 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 社融增速趋缓，信贷增量弱、结构改善。根据 Wind 数据统计，9 月，社融 增速下行 0.1 pct 至 8.7%，增速继续缓慢回落。金融机构贷款增速与中长期 贷款增速均较前值下降，增速分别为 6.6%和 6.3%，信贷转弱主要由于票据 融资规模大幅减少，企业贷款结构持续改善。 | | | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 企业贷款结构 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market in the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In September, the total social financing (TSF) stock growth rate was 8.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1% from August. The new TSF added was 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan, influenced by a slowdown in government bond issuance and a decline in credit growth [3][10]. - The new credit and net financing from government bonds in September were 1.61 trillion yuan and 1.19 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing year-on-year decreases of 0.37 trillion yuan and 0.35 trillion yuan [3][10]. - By the end of September, the total social financing stock reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [10]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the total new TSF added was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan year-on-year, with net financing from government bonds reaching 11.46 trillion yuan, up by 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - The September social financing stock growth rate was 8.7%, down 0.1% from August. The new social financing added was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan due to reduced government bond issuance and weaker credit growth [3][10]. - The new credit in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan, with the total RMB loan balance at 270.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [14]. M1 and M2 Growth - In September, M2 grew by 8.4%, with a 0.4% decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month. M1 saw a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, with a 1.2% increase in growth rate from the previous month, supported by fiscal net spending [19]. Investment Recommendations - Looking ahead to October, it is expected that policy financial tools will continue to be implemented, potentially providing support for credit. The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term funds will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which may help solidify the valuation floor for the sector [20].

Loan Growth and Structure - In September 2025, corporate loans increased by CNY 12,200 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 2,700 billion[2] - Short-term corporate loans rose by CNY 7,100 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 2,500 billion, indicating increased short-term financing needs[2] - Long-term corporate loans increased by CNY 9,100 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 500 billion, reflecting weak demand[2] - Resident loans added CNY 3,890 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 1,110 billion, with short-term loans down by CNY 1,279 billion[2] Social Financing Trends - The total social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from January to August[4] - In September, the social financing increment was CNY 16,080 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3,662 billion[4] - Government bond financing decreased by CNY 11,886 billion, a year-on-year decline of CNY 3,471 billion, continuing a downward trend[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - In September 2025, RMB deposits increased by CNY 22,100 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 15,300 billion[6] - M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rose to 7.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points[6] - The M1-M2 gap narrowed to -1.2%, a further contraction of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, M1 increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 7.2%, while credit balance decreased by 0.2% to 6.6%[1][7] - Social financing stock declined by 0.1% year-on-year to 8.7%[1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion RMB, a decrease of 3,000 billion RMB year-on-year[4][22] Group 2: M1 and Fiscal Policy - The improvement in M1 is attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with fiscal deposits decreasing by 840 billion RMB, a reduction of 604.2 billion RMB compared to the previous year[2][8] - Corporate deposits saw a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 919.4 billion RMB, up by 149.4 billion RMB year-on-year[2][8] - Non-bank deposits decreased significantly, which may have contributed to the marginal support for M1 growth[2][8] Group 3: Loan Performance - Resident loans added 389 billion RMB in September, down by 111 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating a cautious attitude towards debt[2][10] - Corporate loans remained primarily short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing growth declining by 0.4% to 9.3%[3][13] - Despite a recovery in PPI and PMI indices, corporate investment attitudes have not shifted positively[3][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support the stability of social financing, with 500 billion RMB in new policy financial tools launched to leverage more credit and social capital[3][19] - The new policy tools are designed to enhance project capital and are expected to have a strong leverage effect on credit funding[3][19]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 3.53 trillion, a decrease of CNY 229.7 billion year-on-year, which was below market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, a decrease of CNY 300 billion year-on-year[4] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in RMB loans in September was CNY 1.29 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3 billion, indicating weak credit growth[4] - Resident deposits increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.53 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the "moving house" trend of deposits[5] - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points[5] Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The high base effect from last year's government bond issuance continues to pressure social financing growth, with a risk of sustained pressure if no new fiscal policies are introduced[9] - The demand for credit is expected to recover with the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated fiscal spending[14] - The significant increase in resident deposits in September may be linked to a slowdown in the "money-making effect" from the stock market's high volatility[14]

中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，9月末，我国人民币贷款余额270.39万亿元，同比增长6.6%；广义货币（M2）余额同比增长8.4%， 比上年同期高1.5个百分点；社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点。 "前三季度M2和社融规模增速均保持在较高水平，为经济持续回升向好提供了有力支撑。"清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩认为，三季度以 来，装备制造业、高科技制造业等重点行业维持高景气度，企业融资需求有所释放，推动企业贷款保持良好增势。 数据显示，前三季度，我国企（事）业单位贷款增加13.44万亿元，企业仍是新增贷款的大头。其中，中长期贷款增加8.29万亿元，占比超6成。 "今年以来，我行制造业贷款在公司贷款中占比过半，其中多数是制造业中长期贷款，能够有效匹配制造业企业技术升级的长周期需求，为行业 发展提供稳定的信贷资金支持。"一家国有大行人士说。 近期，江苏、广东、广西等多地宣布首批新型政策性金融工具资金完成投放，主要投向城市更新、交通、水务、物流、环境保护等领域。 西南财经大学中国金融研究院副院长董青马表示，此举有助于缓解重点领域重大项目资本金不足问题，也带动了相关配套信贷资金的增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that while new credit in September showed a year-on-year decrease, the impact of debt adjustments suggests that the credit situation may not be as weak as the data implies. Additionally, the growth rate of M1 significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating a moderate policy response from the government [1]. Group 1: Credit and Financial Data - New credit in September decreased year-on-year, but adjustments for debt replacement may indicate a stronger underlying credit situation [1]. - The growth rate of M1 in September was notably higher than market expectations, suggesting a positive shift in monetary conditions [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent implementation of policy financial tools, which act as quasi-fiscal policies, has begun to take effect, contributing to the financial landscape [1]. - The rapid increase in fiscal deposits in September and the easing of real estate policies in first-tier cities have supported the resilience of medium to long-term loans for residents [1]. - Future reasonable growth in financial aggregate indicators will depend on further strengthening of fiscal policies [1].

中金公司点评9月金融数据称，9月新增信贷同比少增，但调整置换债影响后，信贷可能没有数据显示得 那么弱。另一个值得关注的现象是M1增速明显超出市场预期。把这两个现象联系起来的角度是政策温 和发力：作为准财政政策的政策性金融工具近期开始落地，9月财政存款投放亦较快；此外，一线城市 放宽地产政策也支撑了居民中长期贷款韧性。向前看，金融总量指标的合理增长仍然有赖于财政政策加 码。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the new credit data for September may not be as weak as it appears, with adjustments for replacement bonds suggesting a stronger underlying credit demand than reported [2][3]. Group 1: Credit Data Analysis - In September, new credit amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6% [3]. - Adjusting for the impact of replacement bonds, the year-on-year growth rate of credit balance in September is estimated to be 7.7% [3]. - The central rate of bill interest rates in September has significantly increased compared to August, indicating a potential improvement in credit demand [3]. Group 2: M1 Growth and Policy Implications - M1 growth in September reached 7.2%, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3.1% after seasonal adjustments [3]. - The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in M1 growth corresponds to approximately 1 trillion yuan in economic activity, indicating a moderate policy stimulus [3]. - The recent implementation of policy financial tools and a rapid decline in fiscal deposits, which fell by 840 billion yuan in September, are contributing factors to the observed M1 growth [3][4]. Group 3: Real Estate Policy Impact - The easing of real estate policies in major cities has led to an increase in housing transactions, with a 7% year-on-year growth in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in September [4]. - New long-term loans for residents reached 250 billion yuan in September, an increase of 20 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, contrasting with a decline in August [4]. - The sustainability of this credit growth may be challenged due to the potential temporary nature of the real estate sales data [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To ensure reasonable growth in financial aggregate indicators, continued fiscal policy support is necessary [4]. - The year-on-year growth rates of social financing and M2 have shown a decline, with social financing growth at 8.7% and M2 growth at 8.4% in September, indicating a potential decrease in overall financing demand [4].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The growth in social financing reflects strong financial support for the real economy, with government bonds and on-balance-sheet loans being the main contributors [1][2] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, while narrow money (M1) increased by 7.2%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [3] Group 1: Social Financing and Loans - In September, RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, and social financing increased by 35.34 billion yuan, maintaining a robust growth trend [1] - The structure of new loans shows an improvement, with short-term corporate loans increasing by 250 billion yuan, while bill financing decreased by 471.2 billion yuan [2] - The overall loan balance growth rate was 6.6%, which is significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating strong support for the macroeconomic recovery [2] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Policy Outlook - The M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a narrowing gap, reflecting increased activity in corporate operations and a recovery in personal consumption [3] - The central bank is expected to implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year to stimulate financing demand [4] - A policy tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be released in October, which may further support credit expansion and boost infrastructure investment [3]