Core Insights - Croatia's retail consumption has experienced a continuous year-on-year growth for 27 months, with a significant increase of 7.5% in June, surpassing the previous month's growth of 2.6% [2] - The retail trade turnover report indicates a month-on-month actual growth of 3.5% in June, adjusted for calendar effects [2] - The retail turnover for food, beverages, and tobacco products increased by 3.6%, while non-food retail turnover, excluding automotive fuel and lubricants, surged by 11.5% [2] - Consumption remains the largest component of Croatia's GDP, and the growth in retail sales in June suggests stable economic growth for the second quarter of this year [2]

Core Insights - The payment industry in China is undergoing significant innovation, transitioning from traditional cash to advanced methods like NFC, facial recognition, and palm scanning, enhancing convenience and security for consumers [1][3][4] - Ant Group's Vice President, Li Jiajia, emphasizes that payment innovation is crucial for lowering consumption barriers and improving transaction efficiency, ultimately driving consumer demand [1][9] Payment Innovations - Alipay has introduced new payment methods such as "Tap to Pay" and "Look to Pay," which simplify the payment process and cater to various user groups, including the elderly and visually impaired [2][4][12] - The "Tap to Pay" feature allows users to complete transactions without opening the app, while "Look to Pay" integrates with smart glasses, enabling voice-activated payments [2][12] Market Growth and Statistics - The People's Bank of China reported that mobile payment transactions reached 210.98 billion, amounting to 56.37 trillion yuan, a 25-fold increase over the past decade [3] - Non-bank payment institutions processed 13.4 trillion transactions worth 33.168 trillion yuan, reflecting a 570% growth since 2015 [3] User Experience and Accessibility - The average payment time for visually impaired users has decreased from 30 seconds to 5 seconds with "Tap to Pay," indicating a significant improvement in user experience [4] - The number of foreign users utilizing "Tap to Pay" increased fourfold in August 2024, showcasing its growing acceptance among international visitors [4] Technological Advancements - The evolution of payment methods is supported by advancements in communication technology, AI, and IoT, which enhance the efficiency and security of transactions [6][7] - Future trends may include seamless payment experiences through smart devices and the integration of VR and AR technologies for enhanced shopping experiences [6] Security Measures - Balancing convenience and security is critical, with concerns about potential fraud associated with new payment methods [7][8] - Alipay is implementing multi-factor verification and AI-driven security measures to ensure safe transactions [7][8] Industry Collaboration - The development of a new chip for "Tap to Pay" by Fudan Microelectronics and Alipay aims to enhance transaction speed and reliability [8] - The industry is encouraged to collaborate and share technology standards to improve overall service levels [10][11] Future Outlook - Alipay plans to continue exploring digital technologies and innovative payment methods to lower barriers and enhance consumer experiences [11][12] - The integration of payment functions into wearable devices is expected to become a necessity, with predictions of significant growth in the smart wearable market [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

预计三季通胀率为1.8%，核心通胀率为3.1%。 加拿大央行：预计在当前的关税下，二季度GDP萎缩1.5%，三季度GDP增长1%。 人口增长乏力及投资疲软将制约加拿大下半年经济表现。 2025年下半年及2026年消费增长或持续温和。 在新贸易环境下，预计加拿大下半年出口有望"企稳"。 ...

加拿大央行：2025年下半年和2026年消费增长将保持温和。 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in China is stable with improvements in exports and consumption growth, while facing challenges from the real estate market and external uncertainties [1][2] - The real estate market remains a significant negative factor for economic performance, with sales declining over 10% year-on-year in major cities and liquidity pressures on developers [3][4][5] - Real estate investment is expected to fluctuate around -10%, contributing to a decline in nominal GDP growth by 0.75 percentage points [5][6] Group 2 - Private investment growth is weak, with a continuous decline in fixed asset investment since 2023, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - Structural issues, including market access restrictions and increased regulatory scrutiny, are contributing to the low enthusiasm for private investment [6][7] - Consumer spending may face challenges due to potential resource shortages in policy support and a conservative consumption attitude among residents [7][8] Group 3 - Export performance is under pressure from U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries [8][9] - Domestic demand remains weak, leading to structural deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI showing declines [10][11] - Local government finances are strained due to declining land sales and high debt repayment pressures, limiting infrastructure investment capabilities [11][12] Group 4 - Monetary policy needs to improve coordination with fiscal policy to effectively support economic growth [12][13] - There is a need for targeted measures to support the real estate sector and enhance liquidity for developers [14][15] - Increased support for private enterprises and consumer spending is essential to stimulate economic activity [16][17] Group 5 - Recommendations include expanding fiscal support for trade enterprises and enhancing capital market stability through various financial tools [20][21][22] - The government should implement measures to alleviate the financial burden on local governments and improve their investment capabilities [23][24] - A proactive monetary policy approach is necessary to address deflationary pressures and stabilize the economy [24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, and is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend in the second half [1][2] - The external environment is undergoing significant changes, with increased geopolitical tensions and weakened global economic growth, impacting China's economic transition from old to new growth drivers [1] - Consumer spending is highlighted as a key area of growth, with retail sales reaching 24.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] Group 2 - Experts indicate that while there are supports for stable growth and high-quality development in the second half, uncertainties in the external environment and domestic demand issues remain significant challenges [2] - Recommendations for policy design include preparing growth-oriented policies, accelerating the implementation of reform policies, deepening open policies particularly in the service sector, and strengthening stability policies related to employment and livelihood [2]

Group 1 - The night economy is experiencing robust growth, with various cities launching themed activities to stimulate nighttime consumption, such as the "2025 Unnight Chongqing Life Festival" and the "2025 Night Life Festival" in Shanghai, featuring over 200 and 130 themed events respectively [1] - Cities are exploring the integration of the night economy with cultural tourism, technology, and sports, which has led to increased local consumption and tourism, making it a significant driver of domestic demand [1] - Despite the current growth, there is still untapped potential in the night economy, and further efforts in cultural empowerment and business innovation are needed to sustain its momentum [1] Group 2 - Enhancing the "cultural added value" of the night economy is crucial, with successful examples like the Dunhuang night market in Gansu and the "Datang Unnight City" in Xi'an showcasing local cultural integration [2] - Utilizing technology to drive business innovation and enrich nighttime consumption experiences, such as immersive night tours using AR/VR, is essential for future development [3] - Strengthening policy guidance and establishing a multi-departmental collaborative mechanism will promote the standardized development of the night economy, including optimizing transportation and safety measures [3]

Group 1 - The average economic growth rate in China during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan reached 5.5% [1] - China's R&D investment intensity has surpassed the EU average, currently at 2.68% of GDP, indicating a significant advancement in the innovation system [2][4] - A new innovation-driven development model has emerged in China, characterized by a large-scale market system fostering substantial innovation [5] Group 2 - To achieve new consumption growth, it is essential to stabilize income growth, which includes wages, property income, transfer income, and business income [8] - There is a need for a comprehensive plan to stabilize public expectations regarding current and future income [8] - Significant breakthroughs in demand structure, particularly in service consumption, are necessary for new growth points [8] Group 3 - There is a discrepancy between macroeconomic data and micro-level perceptions of growth, with different demographics experiencing varying levels of economic benefit [9] - To enhance the sense of gain among marginal groups, overall reform plans should be implemented to increase the proportion of the middle class and significantly boost social security spending [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi anticipates that consumer spending will continue to grow moderately [1] Group 1 - The expectation of moderate growth in consumer spending suggests a stable economic environment, which may influence investment strategies in consumer-related sectors [1]