【博时市场点评6月25日】沪指年内新高，两市成交超1.6万亿 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续上涨，沪指创下年内新高，创业板指涨幅超3%，沪深两市成交进一步放量至1.6 万亿以上。海外方面，昨日，伊朗与以色列停火协议得到双方确认，大幅缓解了市场避险情绪，同时美 联储意外释放鸽派信号，若通胀可控不排除下月降息可能性，缓解了全球流动性收紧的担忧，对新兴市 场资金面形成直接利好；国内方面，9月阅兵既有传统武器装备参阅，还会安排新型作战力量参阅，体 现我军适应科技发展和战争形态演变、打赢未来战争的强大能力。国内国外的信息均指向风险偏好提 升，近两日A股成交量较之前明显放大，后续仍需关注中美经贸博弈，以及国内基本面在外需影响下的 韧性情况，7月将进入中报披露期，市场或仍将呈现震荡态势，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃结构以 及业绩有改善的方向。 消息面 央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费 领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个 方面提出19项重点举措。《意见》明确，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元。健全投资和 ...

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy showed resilience and stability, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals due to more proactive macro policies [1] - Key indicators in May demonstrated month-on-month increases, with industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [1] - The service sector also accelerated, with the service production index increasing by 6.2% year-on-year and the business activity index at 50.2, indicating expansion [1] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking a new high for 2024 [1] - The growth in consumption was driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, including the "6.18" online shopping festival and holiday effects from the "May Day" and "Duanwu" festivals [1] - Domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday saw a 6.4% increase in visitor numbers, while restaurant revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Export and Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export amounted to 38,098 billion yuan, with exports at 22,767 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [2] - Despite the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., overall export growth remained positive, with a 7.2% increase from January to May [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7%, lower than the 4.0% growth observed in the first four months [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [2] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining by 0.7% month-on-month and new housing prices also decreasing [3] - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area further declined year-on-year in May, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [3] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for targeted macro policies to enhance investment momentum and stimulate private investment, particularly in the real estate sector [3] - The government is encouraged to innovate service offerings to boost consumption, especially in tourism, dining, retail, and transportation as summer approaches [3]

Economic Overview - In May, China's economy maintained stable growth, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate this year, driven by macro policies and holiday consumption [1] - Exports showed resilience, with a 4.8% increase in May, despite a challenging external trade environment [1] Company Developments - Bozhong Precision (688097.SH) announced plans to acquire 70% of Shanghai Wodian Industrial Automation for 420 million yuan, marking its entry into the automotive smart equipment sector [1] - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK) plans to acquire online audio platform Ximalaya for approximately 12.6 billion USD, indicating a significant shift in the Chinese online audio industry [2] Market Regulations - The Interbank Market Dealers Association issued a notice to strengthen the regulation of bond issuance and underwriting, prohibiting "rebates" that distort market prices [1] Fund Performance - As of Q1 2025, the total scale of national enterprise annuity funds reached 3.73 trillion yuan, with a three-year cumulative return of 7.46%, reflecting a shift in focus from one-year to three-year performance metrics [1] Industry Trends - The short video and long video industries are experiencing intense competition, while the audio market is maturing, with Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya potentially reshaping the landscape [2] - The price of lemons has surged significantly, impacting the cost for tea beverage businesses, with prices reaching 7.5-10 yuan per jin, nearly tripling from previous lows [2] - The economic growth of trillion-yuan cities shows a divergence in industrial structure, with provincial capitals focusing on services and non-capital cities emphasizing industrial growth [2] - The Hong Kong IPO market is recovering, attracting overseas investment due to lower valuations compared to A-shares and U.S. stocks, enhancing its investment appeal [2]

Core Viewpoint - In May 2023, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by various factors including holiday consumption, promotional events, and the "old-for-new" policy [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Drivers - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with retail sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture increasing by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [3] - The "6·18" online shopping festival, which started on May 13, has accelerated online retail sales, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail from January to May, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [3] - Holiday consumption showed positive trends, with domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and restaurant income in May rising by 5.9% [4] Group 2: Emerging Consumption Trends - There is a continuous release of new consumption momentum, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year respectively [4] - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy has enhanced consumer activity, with inbound tourists under the visa exemption policy increasing by over 70% during the "May Day" holiday, leading to a significant rise in tourism orders and payment transactions [4]

日本央行行长植田和男：随着实际工资逐步改善，消费有望维持温和增长趋势。 ...

Macro Economic Group - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding WIND's expectation of 5.2%, but down 1.6 percentage points from March. The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to April is 6.45%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than last year's total [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April nominally grew by 5.1%, lower than WIND's expectation of 5.5%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.7% from January to April, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than last year [3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth from January to April is 4.0%, below WIND's expectation of 4.3%, but still 1.0 percentage points higher than last year [3] - The trade surplus for January to April reached USD 368.8 billion, an increase of USD 113.9 billion year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.7% [4] Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing Group - Leap Motor reported a loss attributable to equity holders of RMB 130 million in Q1 2025, significantly reduced from a loss of RMB 1.01 billion in the same period of 2024. Revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187.1%, driven by a 162% increase in vehicle sales to 87,552 units [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of 14.9%, compared to -1.4% in the same period of 2024 and 13.3% in Q4 2024. The collaboration with Stellantis in Europe provides a competitive advantage for Leap Motor in the European market [7] Consumer Group - In April 2025, the online sales of trendy toys and anime products reached RMB 1.31 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48%, continuing the rapid growth trend from Q1 [10] - Domestic trendy toy brands performed well, with Pop Mart's online sales increasing by 287% year-on-year, and LABUBU series products experiencing a buying frenzy in overseas markets [11] - During the 618 shopping festival, various e-commerce platforms adjusted their promotional strategies, with Tmall starting its campaign earlier and simplifying discount structures, which is expected to significantly reduce return rates [12]

Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with some companies facing operational pressures while positive trends in consumption, industry, and capital markets are emerging [2] Employment Issues - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous year [4][14] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors, which contributed nearly all of the employment increase [4][14] Income Distribution - The average salary in the manufacturing sector is projected to be 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, aligning closely with the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income [5][20] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary has increased, reaching its highest level since 2012, indicating a favorable environment for talent influx into manufacturing [5][20] Profitability Issues - Manufacturing companies are experiencing profitability pressure, with operating profit declining by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, and the operating profit margin dropping from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024 [6][24] - The profitability pressure index for the industrial sector has risen to 10.5%, indicating increased pressure compared to 7.7% in 2023 [6][25] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies is approximately 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in the previous year, marking a decline in absolute levels [7][33] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors such as leather, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have shown a rebound in investment returns [7][33] Asset and Liability Issues - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [8][36] - The asset-liability ratio has continued to rise, reaching 52% in 2024, indicating increasing debt levels [8][36] Cash Flow - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, indicating greater collection pressure [9][45] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, with manufacturing experiencing a significant decline to -2.8% [9][45] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a growth of 3.4% in the previous year [10][48] - Newly listed companies have shown a significant increase in capital expenditure, with a growth rate of 23.7% in 2023-2024, indicating a divergence from established firms [10][48] Financing Issues - The growth rate of interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies slowed to 6.8% in 2024, continuing a trend of deceleration since 2022 [11][57] - The interest burden has decreased, with the ratio of interest expenses to interest-bearing debt falling to 3.36% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt servicing costs [11][57]

NO.1 央行等部门5月7日上午将介绍"金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 国务院新闻办公室5月6日消息，国务院新闻办公室将于5月7日上午9时举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银 行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 期"有关情况，并答记者问。 NO.2 财政部蓝佛安：有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标 每经记者 杨建 每经编辑 肖芮冬 ｜2025年5月7日 星期三｜ 2025年5月4日至7日，亚洲开发银行理事会第58届年会在意大利米兰举行。蓝佛安指出，中国是经济全 球化的受益者也是贡献者，近年来对全球经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右。今年一季度GDP同比增长 5.4%，实现良好开局。中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标。 中国将继续建设国内统一大市场，扩大高水平对外开放，同世界特别是亚太成员分享中国发展机遇与红 利，携手应对时代挑战，共创亚太美好未来。 NO.3 我国首次海洋性冰川航空探测启动，调查点位海拔超过4700米 据央视新闻报道，5月6日，自然资源部中国地质调查局将在西藏昌都正式开展我国首次海洋性冰川航空 探测，以掌 ...

文旅市场热度攀升，电影文博持续火热，重点零售和餐饮企业销售额保持快速增长，邮政快递业加速与 文旅产业深度融合……"五一"假期，全国消费市场繁荣活跃，呈现出高质量发展的良好态势。 出行热情持续高涨 "五一"假期，民众出行热情高涨。铁路、公路、水路、民航等部门全面联动，全力保障交通运输的安全 与顺畅，为民众的出行提供便利。 交通运输部最新数据，5月1日至5日，全社会跨区域人员流动量146594万人次，日均29319万人次，比上 年同期增长7.9%。 国家税务总局最新增值税发票数据显示，"五一"假期，全国消费相关行业销售收入同比增长15.2%，其 中消费品"以旧换新"政策带动家电及通讯器材类商品消费需求旺盛，家居用品及珠宝首饰消费增幅较 高，个性化旅游服务消费受到青睐。 据商务部商务大数据监测，"五一"假期，全国消费市场繁荣，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。 数据显示，"五一"假期全国边检机关共保障1089.6万人次中外人员出入境，日均217.9万人次，较去 年"五一"假期增长28.7%。外国人出入境111.5万人次，较去年同期增长43.1%；入境外国人中，适用免 签政策入境38万人次，较去年同期增 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, gold purchases are becoming a preferred investment choice for residents in Beijing amid negative consumption growth [2][4] - Beijing's retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with gold and jewelry consumption showing a significant increase of 29% [2][4] - In March 2025, gold and jewelry consumption reached 78.7 billion yuan, ranking just below automotive and communication equipment categories [2] Group 2: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has been on the rise, with a 28.2% increase in the closing price of Au9999 gold in 2024 and a further 27.8% increase in 2025 [2][6] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been highlighted due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability, leading to increased investment in gold bars and coins [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a notable divergence in gold consumption trends, with gold jewelry consumption declining by 26.85% in Q1 2025, while gold bars and coins saw a growth of 29.81% [6] - The overall consumer spending in Beijing has been affected by various factors, including insufficient effective demand and intense market competition [4][10] Group 4: Economic Context - The overall economic environment in Beijing has shown signs of slowing recovery, with the first quarter of 2025 reflecting a decline in various consumer sectors, particularly in the restaurant and hospitality industries [8][10] - Employment in the service sector has also been impacted, with a decrease in the number of employees in key industries such as catering and information technology [9][10]