Group 1 - The market sentiment has shifted significantly, with strong enthusiasm for investment in sectors like water conservancy and power generation, as evidenced by the surge in related stocks following the announcement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and closed at a new yearly high, while the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed the peak from October 8, 2022, indicating a robust market recovery [1] - Historical data shows that the A-share market has rarely sustained above 3500 points, with only three instances in 2007, 2015, and 2021, suggesting that maintaining this level could attract more external capital [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is already in a technical bull market, with the Hang Seng Index up 24.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 25% year-to-date, indicating a strong performance compared to A-shares [2] - Recent trading volumes have increased, reaching 1.73 trillion yuan, which is an increase of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous week, suggesting growing investor interest [2] - Policies aimed at enhancing the long-term performance evaluation of state-owned insurance companies are expected to stabilize the market and attract more patient capital [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, aligning with market expectations [3] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates from September, which could significantly boost global risk appetite and influence China's monetary policy [3] - The upcoming important meeting at the end of July is anticipated to set the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year, focusing on "stabilizing growth" and "reducing competition" [3]

这下 $ENA 还多一个币股概念，虽然是没上市的公司，但是市场炒作的时候看概念就足够拉飞一周涨了 60%，千鸟在林不如一鸟在手，卖飞 https://t.co/3LeQWqbqGkYuyue (@yuyue_chris):牛市来了什么都能起飞$ENA 这 E 族 + 稳定币 + WLFI 持仓三重概念一周拉了近 30% 了真 · 山寨季？ https://t.co/nnrN7ix2fq ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and considerations surrounding the development of hydropower in Tibet, emphasizing the high costs of long-distance electricity transmission and the current oversupply of electricity in China [1][2][4]. Group 1: Hydropower Development Challenges - Tibet has a significant hydropower generation capacity, sufficient to supply electricity for 100 million people, but the region cannot consume this energy [1]. - The cost of transmitting electricity over thousands of kilometers is prohibitively high, making it less economical than transporting coal [1][4]. - Current electricity prices have been significantly reduced, indicating that there is no immediate shortage of electricity in the country [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Strategic Considerations - Transmitting electricity to neighboring countries like India and Myanmar involves high costs and geopolitical risks [3]. - From a military perspective, the government may overlook costs for strategic infrastructure projects, such as roads and railways, to strengthen control over sensitive regions [5][7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the current phase of investment could be a catalyst for a bull market, with companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering being primary beneficiaries [6]. - The second phase of investment will likely expand to include supporting infrastructure and environmental restoration, given the ecological sensitivity of Tibet [6]. - The third phase will focus on companies that will benefit from local economic development and urban construction [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical projects like the Three Gorges Dam illustrate the challenges of meeting increasing electricity demand, as the original supply goals have become insufficient due to rapid urban growth [8]. - The article posits that while China currently does not face an electricity shortage, future demands, particularly from electric vehicles, could change this situation [7][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context and characteristics of the eight major bull markets in China's A-share market, highlighting their duration, percentage increases, and the economic and policy backgrounds that contributed to these market movements [2][28]. Summary by Sections Historical Bull Markets - The A-share market has experienced eight significant bull markets, with durations ranging from a few dozen days to nearly three years, and percentage increases varying from 100% to over 1,000% [2]. First Bull Market (1990.12.19 - 1992.05.26) - Background: The initial phase of the Chinese stock market attracted a large number of investors due to its scarcity and supportive policies [5]. - Increase: The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 95.79 to 1429.01, a gain of 1391.82% [6]. - Duration: 524 days [6]. Second Bull Market (1992.11.17 - 1993.02.16) - Background: Following the Southern Tour talks in 1992, new reforms spurred a bullish trend in the market [8]. - Increase: The index increased from 386.85 to 1558.95, a rise of 302.99% [9]. - Duration: 91 days [9]. Third Bull Market (1994.07.29 - 1994.09.13) - Background: After a prolonged downturn, regulatory policies restored market confidence, leading to a notable rally [11]. - Increase: The index climbed from 325.89 to 1052.94, a gain of 223.10% [12]. - Duration: 46 days [12]. Fourth Bull Market (1996.01.19 - 1997.05.12) - Background: Economic reforms and liquidity measures initiated by the government contributed to market growth [14]. - Increase: The index rose from 512.83 to 1510.18, an increase of 194.48% [15]. - Duration: 479 days [15]. Fifth Bull Market (1999.05.19 - 2001.06.14) - Background: To counter the Asian financial crisis, the government implemented policies to boost market confidence [17]. - Increase: The index increased from 1047.83 to 2245.44, a rise of 114.29% [18]. - Duration: 757 days [18]. Sixth Bull Market (2005.06.06 - 2007.10.16) - Background: The stock market entered a full circulation era due to shareholding reforms and currency appreciation [20]. - Increase: The index surged from 998.23 to 6124.04, a gain of 513.49% [21]. - Duration: 862 days [21]. Seventh Bull Market (2008.10.28 - 2009.08.04) - Background: The government introduced a stimulus plan in response to the global financial crisis, which bolstered the market [23]. - Increase: The index rose from 1664.93 to 3478.01, an increase of 108.90% [24]. - Duration: 280 days [24]. Eighth Bull Market (2014.03.12 - 2015.06.12) - Background: Monetary policy easing led to significant capital inflows into the stock market, resulting in a "leveraged bull" market [25]. - Increase: The index increased from 1974.38 to 5178.19, a rise of 162.27% [26]. - Duration: 426 days [26]. Current Bull Market - Background: The current bull market is characterized by rapid initiation due to changes in monetary policy, starting on September 24, with the index rising from 2700 to 3600 within a month [28]. - Comparison: Similarities with past bull markets include starting from low levels and rapid initial gains, while differences lie in the timing of policy changes and the role of ETF investments [29][30]. ETF Influence - The current market has seen a significant increase in ETF investments, with a rise of 1436.83 million shares (+6.16%) and a total increase in scale of 8583.60 million yuan (+31.27%) since September 24 [31]. - The regulatory support for ETFs is expected to play a crucial role in sustaining the current bull market [32].

一、中美贸易战又喊话了！美国这事儿干得有点自相矛盾，一边想享受全球的物美价廉，一边又想着怎么加关税讹人。比如，美国对中国进口的阳极石墨 ——这是电动车电池的关键材料——征收了93.5%的初步反倾销税，加上其他税率，实际关税高达160%！ 加上，周五的成交量放量近330亿元，成交额在15935亿元，属于较为活跃的交投状态，有望给A股继续在明天一天内，保持周五的行情得以延伸的状态。所 以，大盘大概率会继续选择上行，而非再度回落。 二、大家不要误会，仍然坚持，3555.22点是七月的高点，也是年内的高点，上证指数会跌破3400点，跌不破就道歉。 没有实质性的利好，就会有牛市产生。美联储从上两次降息之后，已经很长时间坚持不降息了。目前看来，国内的基本面和消息面，都是比较平静的。 美联储再次进入降息周期，是产生牛市的最大利好。去年九月的千点大涨行情，就是在美联储第一次降息，之后的几天的产生的。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后翻查。 四、本周，A股市场反弹，三大指数周线均出现四连阳。 三、本周指数稳定3500之上，成交量还行，但是大盘要强势目前成交量 ...

牛市来了什么都能起飞$ENA 这 E 族 + 稳定币 + WLFI 持仓三重概念一周拉了近 30% 了真 · 山寨季？ https://t.co/nnrN7ix2fqYuyue (@yuyue_chris):WLFI 来之前有哪些可能可以炒的叙事炒作标的？能想到的相关概念是稳定币，前两天 $ENA 刚上韩国所，韩国兄弟们连这个市值这个筹码都能冲起来，按带哥的话来说就是辣是真的牛逼 ...

策 略 研 究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 19 日 经济预期谨慎，A 股缘何延续强势 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 - 证券分析师 券 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 研 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 究 ⚫ 一、2025 下半年经济增速可能相对上半年回落，政策重点仍偏向于调结构，是当前市场 的一致预期，A 股为什么能维持强势？1. 稳定资本市场预期政策，构建了 A 股对宏观扰 动的"隔离墙"，下行风险可控的预期深入人心。2. 反内卷建立了"短期景气亮点"和 "中期供需格局改善"逻辑的连接，上游周期和中游制造"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺 畅。3. 科技景气验证和中美贸谈判成果显现共振，强化了短期价值向成长切换行情。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 报 告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining discipline in investment strategies during a bull market, highlighting five key recommendations to avoid common pitfalls and maximize returns [1][16]. Group 1: Investment Discipline - Investors should adhere to their regular investment plans and continue systematic investment even in a bull market, avoiding the temptation to make large, impulsive investments [4][15]. - It is crucial to set specific limits for additional investments, such as a percentage of monthly income, and to avoid going "all in" [5][15]. - The tendency to sell existing investments to chase higher returns can lead to losses; therefore, investors should focus on holding quality funds [7][8]. Group 2: Profit Management - Caution is advised when considering adding to positions after realizing profits; a "pyramid" approach should be used, buying more at lower valuations and less as prices rise [11][15]. - Setting clear profit-taking targets before entering a position is essential, with recommendations to sell portions of holdings at predetermined profit levels [14][15]. - Maintaining awareness of market conditions and avoiding emotional decisions during periods of market euphoria is critical to prevent significant losses [13][15]. Group 3: General Market Awareness - The article warns that bull markets can create a false sense of security, and investors should remain vigilant against the risks of market bubbles and emotional trading [16]. - It is highlighted that the A-share market typically experiences short bull runs followed by longer bear markets, necessitating a calm and disciplined approach to investing [16].

Market Sentiment - The market suggests a bearish outlook, advising to consider shorting [1] - The market highlights the influence of key figures like "一姐" (Sister) during bear markets and CZ during bull markets [1] - The market emphasizes the dominance of Binance (币安) in shaping market trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from the 2015 stock market crash in China, emphasizing the importance of risk management, market awareness, and the need for continuous learning in investment practices [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Events and Historical Context - The article discusses the peak of the Chinese stock market at 5178 points on June 12, 2015, followed by a significant downturn where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 43% within 17 trading days [4]. - It highlights the massive IPO activities that led to a freezing of 6.7 trillion yuan in funds, marking a new high since the IPO restart in 2014 [4]. - The article notes the extreme volatility in the market post-crash, with multiple instances of "千股涨停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit up) and "千股跌停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down) [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - The article advises against leveraging and financing in capital markets, citing that such practices often lead to significant losses during market downturns [5]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to respect the market and acknowledge their limitations, suggesting that many enter the market with unrealistic expectations [6]. - Continuous learning and experience accumulation are crucial for investors, as the market's nature requires adaptability and awareness of changing conditions [7]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Lessons - The author shares personal anecdotes of individuals who suffered significant losses due to over-leveraging and heavy positions during the 2015 crash, illustrating the psychological impact of such experiences [5][6]. - The article stresses the importance of reflecting on past mistakes and learning from them to avoid repeating them in future market cycles [7]. - It concludes with a call for investors to focus on improving their understanding of market dynamics and to be patient, waiting for favorable conditions to invest [7].