Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and a significant increase in human mobility and travel intensity, indicating a mixed economic recovery trend. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [2][5] - The chemical sector shows marginal improvement, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [2][13] - However, the automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with semi-steel tire operating rates dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 17.9% [2][13] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to 5% and 3.8% to 6.3% respectively [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates, however, have increased year-on-year by 7% to 2% [2][21] Group 3: Demand Trends - There is a notable recovery in housing transactions, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8% [2][29] - Port cargo throughput has significantly improved, rising by 10.4% year-on-year to 4.2%, while container throughput increased by 2.5% to 2.9% [2][32] - Human mobility has surged, with the migration index increasing by 50.5% year-on-year to 51.4% [2][34] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][46] - The South China industrial product price index decreased by 0.7%, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 0.4% [2][49]

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 原油上升，金、铜震荡上行。 内需： 房、车销售回升，假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升，二手房降，家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄，但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升，但受成本抬升，需求预期悲观等因素影响，半钢胎开工率超季节性回落；家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨，假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%，出游总花费同比增长8.0%，纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次，同比增长5.2%。 不过，电影市场表现惨淡，五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元，同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需： 对美出口量继续下行，但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示，美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑，指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升，反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税，中美经贸谈判将于周末开始，关注会后通报结果。 生产： 节后库存阶段性累积，开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...

很多观点认为关税将导致日本经济增长率放缓。也有日银相关人士认为，中美相互征收高关税将 导致全球经济减速的"间接影响更大"。 经济的下行将成为拉低物价的主要原因，另一方面，如果发生供应链的混乱和重建，反而会推动 物价上涨。 日银内部也有不少观点认为，长期存在的劳动力短缺将推动加薪，2026年春季劳资谈判也将维持 高水平加薪。 日银总裁植田和男 政策利率将维持在0.5%。日银认为，美国特朗普政府的关税政策本身及其对经济产生的影响难以 预测，不确定性高，因此将观察动向…… 日本银行（央行）将于4月30日和5月1日举行货币政策会议。政策利率将维持在0.5%。日银认 为，美国特朗普政府的关税政策本身及其对经济产生的影响难以预测，不确定性高，因此将观察 动向。预计2025年度以后的实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长率也将下调。 5月1日的会议结束后，日银将公布每3个月更新一次的《经济和物价形势展望》（展望报告）。 截至1月，从实际GDP的展望（9位政策委员的中间值）来看, 2025年度为同比增长1.1%，2026 年度为增长1.0%。从消费者物价指数（CPI/生鲜食品除外）的涨幅来看,2025年度为2.4%，2026 年度为 ...

外需： 4月出口或回落，关税不确定性对出口仍有支撑。 ①关税对外需影响初步显现，4月韩国前20天出口增速回落，我国集装箱吞吐量等出口数量指标有所下行。但考虑到关税不确定性仍在，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢 出口需求，将对外需有一定支撑。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房销售走弱、车持平上月，室外出游热度较高。 ①房销售走弱、车持平上月，家电销售均价同比增速跌多涨少。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房价升量减。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速持平上月，批发有所 回升，受市场需求疲软影响，轮胎企业调整生产计划，导致半钢胎开工回落；本周家电价格多有上行。 ② 本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流上升，一线城市至海口的航班均价转为上行。不过，电影市场表现仍旧惨淡，持续位于历年同期低位。五一假期临近， 建议关注假期消费情况。 生产： 产能调控需加强，传统基建有望加速恢复。 ①由于4月以来多地错峰生产执行力度减弱，竞争加剧，本周水泥价格续降，企业库容比续升，终端需求暂弱，本周水泥发运率继续回落。 ②本周石油沥青开工率继续上行，同比回正，样本建筑工地资金到位率续升，同时水泥基建直供量超过去年 ...

坐标上海： 蔬菜：生菜0.8元1斤，茼蒿菜2元一大把，香菜4元一斤，萝卜1元 水果：刚上市的西瓜3.5元一斤，鸡蛋芒果10元3斤，大水仙芒果才6.8元 对于发达国家，绿叶菜等那可是奢侈品，一般老百姓吃不起，在荷兰茼蒿卖8欧元1公斤，在 日本萝卜10元一斤，苹果15元1个，西瓜150~200元一个 对于中国人民，蔬菜和水果是完全自由的，想吃多少吃多少，如果把收入换算成蔬菜和水 果，上海等沿海地区人民的收入应该是全世界第一了吧。 这么低的物价，如此强的购买力，近一个月人民币相对于欧元/日元居然跌了10%，不可思 议！ 说不出的YD 中国不只蔬菜便宜，还有肉蛋奶、汽车、汽油、教育、养老、医疗、房租，几乎所有的消费 都比世界平均价格低了很多很多，房子不便宜但房租便宜，可以看看蓝战非环游世界时各国 的消费。 但很多人偏偏要每一项都要和世界最低价格比，幸福指数是和想象里的发达国家比，其实人 家的苦自己知道。14亿人过成这样，安全、饿不死、都能用劳动换来生存，我不认为换任何 别的国家能做到。 chenyun1979 如果你月入3000元，还觉得3.5元1斤的西瓜便宜吗？如果你已失业，你还舍得吃6.8元1斤的 芒果吗?看社会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly gold and oil, while highlighting the challenges in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policies on external trade [1][6]. Domestic Demand - Real estate and automobile sales are weakening, with new home sales growth turning negative in April and second-hand home sales declining while prices rise [2]. - The average daily box office revenue during the holiday was only 126 million yuan, about half of last year's figures, although per capita spending on travel increased slightly [2]. - Post-holiday consumer activity has decreased, with declines in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland, shopping districts, hotel occupancy rates, and subway passenger volumes compared to the same period last year [2]. External Demand - The escalation of tariffs between the US and China continues, with Trump suspending additional tariffs but maintaining a 10% base tariff, leading to over 100% cumulative tariffs on China since his administration began [3]. - South Korea's export growth rebounded in early April, with improvements in shipping rates and loaded ship departures, possibly due to shifting trade policies creating export demand [4]. Production - Steel and cement production remain strong, but inventory levels are rising. Steel prices have dropped significantly, particularly for export-related products, while rebar production is increasing due to remaining profit margins [5]. - Cement prices have also begun to decline, although both cement shipment rates and mill operation rates have improved compared to last year, indicating a faster supply growth despite slow recovery in infrastructure and housing demand [5]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices have reached new highs, while copper prices have rebounded and oil prices have experienced a bottoming out and subsequent rebound [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has led to a decrease in recessionary trades, contributing to the rise in copper prices and fluctuations in oil prices [6]. - The lack of confidence in the US dollar system, exacerbated by ineffective deficit reduction plans, has prompted market participants to sell US assets, driving gold prices to new highs [7]. Future Focus - Attention will be on the developments regarding US tariffs and the economic data for March, including export figures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in CPI and PPI, highlighting a significant decline in February 2025, with CPI at -0.7% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating a notable pullback after a previous recovery [1][4][5]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - February 2025 CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5%, while PPI was -2.2%, slightly better than the prior -2.3% [5]. - The simulated deflation index, based on the weighted contributions of CPI and PPI, was approximately -1.3%, marking a significant retreat from the recovery seen since October 2024 [4][5]. - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a seasonal effect related to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected food prices and overall inflation metrics [6][7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The Spring Festival's timing caused a high base effect, leading to a significant drop in CPI; without this effect, CPI would have shown a slight increase of 0.1% [6][7]. - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles fell by 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI decline [7]. - Historical data indicates that the transportation component of CPI has consistently shown negative year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in the rate of decline since 2023 [7][8]. Group 3: PPI Structural Analysis - PPI showed a mixed performance across sectors, with oil extraction and non-ferrous metallurgy experiencing month-on-month increases, while sectors like black metallurgy and coal mining saw declines [8]. - New industry products, such as photovoltaic equipment and semiconductor materials, experienced year-on-year price drops of 13.0% and 9.7% respectively, continuing to exert downward pressure on overall prices [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Signals - The low base effect in March 2025 is expected to provide some relief, with preliminary estimates suggesting a CPI increase of 0.1% and a PPI decrease of -2.2% [9]. - The government has signaled a commitment to addressing low price levels, with a target inflation rate set at around 2%, indicating a proactive policy approach to stimulate moderate price increases [10][11]. - Proposed measures include enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments, boosting consumption, and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets to foster a positive economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights two significant economic characteristics continuing from last year: strong exports but weak consumption, and notable volume growth but weak pricing. Attention should be paid to changes in these characteristics as trade tensions escalate and more consumption-boosting measures are expected post the March Two Sessions [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Consumption - Exports are expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4%-5% in January-February in USD terms. Factors supporting this include companies "rushing to export" and high-frequency data indicating strong performance [4][12]. - Consumption is anticipated to be weak, with retail sales growth expected around 3.0%, down from 3.7% in December. This is influenced by the post-Spring Festival consumption dip and a decline in automobile sales growth [5][17]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Growth - CPI is projected to decline to around -0.8% year-on-year in February, with PPI also expected to remain negative. This is attributed to weak food prices and a post-holiday drop in core CPI [6][9]. - GDP growth for the first quarter is estimated to be between 5.2%-5.3%, with strong performance expected in finance, industry, and information sectors [6][11]. Group 3: Investment and Financial Data - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 4.5% for January-February, driven by early-year investment activity and a rebound in construction projects [6][15]. - Financial data indicates accelerated government bond issuance, with new social financing expected to reach 3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year [7][18].