Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration from the previous month [1][2] - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI decline, with energy prices dropping by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [2] - The CPI has maintained a year-on-year decline of -0.1% for three consecutive months, reflecting weak overall price levels, while core CPI remains above 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies [1][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, which have led to price decreases in related domestic industries, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors are showing marginal improvements, with prices for consumer goods and high-end manufacturing products experiencing upward trends, indicating a potential for gradual recovery in certain industries [5][6]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for heightened vigilance regarding the high uncertainty brought about by trade policies and their impact on the Japanese economy and prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is concerned about the potential effects of trade policy uncertainties on economic stability [1] - There is a recognition that these uncertainties could significantly influence inflation and overall price levels in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, expressed that the April inflation data provided a sense of relief, but did not depict the overall situation comprehensively [1] Group 1 - The April inflation figures were perceived positively, indicating a potential easing of price pressures [1] - Despite the positive sentiment, Daly emphasized that the broader economic context remains complex and requires careful analysis [1]

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production shows marginal recovery, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased by 8.8 percentage points to -2% [1][41] - Cement average prices continue to decline [1][29] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions show marginal improvement, with average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales remain strong, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% respectively [2][80] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has improved, while container shipping prices show mixed performance [2][89] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1%, with energy and chemical prices down by 1.3% and metal prices down by 0.6% [2][111]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's survey indicates an improvement in perceptions of local and national economies for 2024, although the overall sentiment remains negative [1] - Public concern regarding inflation and prices is highlighted as the primary financial issue for 2024 [1] - 73% of Americans report their financial situation is either okay or comfortable, remaining stable compared to 2023 [1]

Economic Overview - Jinan's economy shows a stable and improving trend in the first four months of the year, supported by precise policies and macroeconomic coordination [1] Industrial Production - The city's industrial output increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing sector at 103.0%, and automotive manufacturing at 39.5% [1] - Equipment manufacturing grew by 27.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 18.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a 26.1% increase in output, contributing 4.9 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.4% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a substantial increase of 210.6% and the secondary industry growing by 14.7% [2] - Industrial investment grew by 13.8%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2] - High-tech industry investment increased by 13.8%, while real estate development investment declined by 2.0% [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's revenue reached 1111.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, with nine out of ten major industries reporting revenue growth [3] - The transportation, storage, and postal services sector generated 469.5 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of the service sector's total revenue, and grew by 6.4% [3] - The rental and business services sector also performed well, with a revenue increase of 14.2% [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in Jinan reached 654.2 billion yuan, a 3.0% increase year-on-year, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% [4] - The sales of communication equipment surged by 71.2% due to the "trade-in" policy, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.9% [4] - Online retail sales grew significantly by 32.7%, reaching 172.4 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Overview - Public budget revenue was 452.5 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase, while tax revenue decreased by 1.3% [4] - Financial institutions reported a 4.9% increase in deposits and a 10.6% increase in loans by the end of April [4] Foreign Trade - Jinan's total import and export value reached 793.4 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase, with exports growing by 10.4% and imports by 49.6% [5] - General trade accounted for 92.3% of the total trade volume, growing by 23.3% [5] Price Trends - Consumer prices rose by 0.5% cumulatively, with a 0.6% increase in April, showing a mixed trend across eight categories of goods and services [5]