策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：中美原则上达成协议框架，美豆出口预期向好，此外美豆期价继续保持天气市波动特征，内外 盘豆类期价仍是易涨难跌走势。短期豆类市场交易逻辑来自天气题材和中美贸易关系前景，趋势上阶段性 反弹行情持续。 品种：豆油（Y） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 ...

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.

首席点评：黑色回落 国内方面：国务院副总理何立峰会见美国摩根士丹利联席总裁丹 ·辛克维兹。何立峰表示，欢迎摩根士 丹利在内的更多美资金融机构和长期资本持续深化对华互利合作，积极参与中国资本市场建设发展。国 际方面：今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要显示，本月稍早的会议上，美联储决策者普遍认为，经济面临 的不确定性比之前更高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更明朗，再考虑行 动。而且，此次纪要中，联储决策者几乎全都表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧。继4月的上次会议纪 要后，本次纪要中，联储官员再度警惕，联储货币政策委员会FOMC可能不得不在抗通胀和保就业之间 做出"艰难的取舍"。市场方面：焦炭第二轮提降将于28日落地，市场普遍接受。偏空思路对待，尚无明 确反转驱动。 重点品种： 原油、 煤焦 、油脂 原油： SC夜盘上涨0.84%。欧佩克及其减产同盟国将于在周三分别召开两个月一次的联合部长级市场 监测委员会会议、半年一次的欧佩克能源部长会议和半年一次的欧佩克及其减产同盟国能源部长会议。 此外，该集团每月一次的自愿减产的八国排产会议将决定7月份取消自愿减产的数量，这次会议可能由 计划的6月1日提前到5 ...

期货热点追踪 生柴政策利空突袭！美豆油跳水拖累棕榈油走低，这次棕榈油期货会跌到哪里？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 市场传言美国增加小型炼厂豁免量，国内油脂系期货跳空低开！美国生柴政策仍是左右油脂价格的最大 变量？ 相关链接 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/20 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/16 | | | 2025/5/12 至 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 乙二醇 | 4461.00 | 乙二醇 | | | 5.74% | | | | 铁矿石 | 736.50 | 铁矿石 | | | 4.60% | | | | PTA | 4798.00 | PTA | | | 4.19% | | | | PV ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国⽣柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国生柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 上海 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í í | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 4 月报告 | | 2. | 印度 SEA 4 月报告 | | 3. | 马棕5月预测 | | 4. | 其他重要资讯 ... | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 13 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dABm5MPGrK7lbUmFlSQxoA 2/19 https://mp. ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美国清洁燃料税收抵免 45Z 延长至 2031 年 12 月 31 日，这可能会维持对豆油作为可再生柴油 行业原料的需求。内外盘豆类价差修复过后迎来联动行情。国内油厂开机率逐渐恢复，但压车现象依然存 在，短期现货供应恢复节奏偏慢，对现货行情仍然形成一定支撑。远期供应宽松预期不断强化，仍对远期 价格构成压力。短期豆粕期价震荡偏强，继续反弹空间受限。 备注： 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说 ...

Summary of The Andersons (ANDE) Conference Call Company Overview - The Andersons is a diversified agribusiness operating in grain trading, ethanol production, and plant nutrients, with a strong presence in the Eastern Corn Belt and recent expansion into the Western Corn Belt through the Skylin grain investment [2][6] Key Points and Arguments Leadership Transition - CEO Bill Krueger has been in the role since October, succeeding Pat Bo, and has been with the company since the Lansing acquisition [3] - The company has tripled in size since January 1, 2019, indicating significant growth and transformation [3] Business Segments and Strategy - The Andersons has combined its nutrient business with its trade group to enhance operational efficiency [5] - The company has adopted a more asset-light model since 2019, allowing for greater flexibility and nimbleness in operations [7][8] - The Skylin investment has filled gaps in the company's asset footprint, particularly in Southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle [6][21] Market Dynamics - The wheat market is currently balanced, with the U.S. showing a slight oversupply at a carryout of 1.6 million bushels [10][11] - Global corn demand is well-structured, but competition from Milo and wheat is affecting corn demand in the U.S. [11][12] - Fertilizer demand remains high despite a weaker financial position for some farmers, attributed to precision agriculture practices [14][15] Tariffs and Trade - Recent changes to tariffs and port fees have reduced risks for The Andersons, particularly regarding exports from the Great Lakes [18][20] - The company is well-positioned to navigate the current tariff environment, especially concerning fertilizer and wheat imports [18] Financial Performance and Outlook - The Skylin investment is expected to contribute $30 million to $40 million in EBITDA on a run-rate basis [25] - Ethanol margins are expected to improve through Q2 and Q3, driven by increased gasoline demand and potential E15 mandates [31][32] - The company anticipates a stable inventory level for ethanol, similar to the previous year, with a positive outlook on exports [36] Renewable Diesel and Feedstock Opportunities - The Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is expected to drive demand for feedstocks, positively impacting The Andersons' renewable diesel feedstock business [40][41] - The company has a target to increase its renewable diesel feedstock trading from 1.5 billion pounds to 2 billion pounds [42] Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to invest approximately $200 million in CapEx for 2025, focusing on efficiency improvements and potential acquisitions [52] - The current environment is seen as favorable for acquisitions, with a preference for larger deals (doubles and triples) rather than smaller ones [53][54] Key Milestones and Monitoring - Investors should monitor the growing season, proposed legislation, and the company's carbon sequestration permit filing in Indiana [63][64] - The company is focused on optimizing its portfolio and addressing underperforming profit centers [66][67] Additional Important Insights - The Andersons has a robust internal growth project pipeline, with significant investments planned for the Port of Houston and other projects [51] - The company is considering share repurchase options, balancing this with potential acquisition opportunities [59][60] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from The Andersons' conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market dynamics, and financial outlook.