Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown strong performance, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The international gold price closed at $4442.41 per ounce, up 2.41%, while silver closed at $69.01 per ounce, up 2.8% [1] - COMEX silver inventory is approximately 14,000 tons, and London silver market inventory is about 27,000 tons, down about one-third from the peak in 2022, indicating tight supply [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are supported by expectations of global monetary easing and domestic growth stabilization policies, with U.S. inflation data reinforcing these expectations [2] - The copper supply chain is experiencing tightness, as evidenced by a significant drop in processing fees for copper concentrate, reflecting a constrained supply [2] - The aluminum supply chain shows a slight increase in supply but a weakening demand, necessitating attention to inventory levels and seasonal demand impacts [2] Group 3: New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a phase of tight supply and demand, with prices likely to remain high in the short term due to ongoing inventory depletion [3] - Export controls on rare earths have become a strategic tool in the U.S.-China trade conflict, potentially enhancing China's pricing power in the global rare earth market [3] - The long-term outlook for the rare earth sector remains positive, with policy support expected to drive industry value reassessment [3]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘震荡下行，午后再下一城后横向波动，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.28%，10 | ...

2025年12月19日，知名经济学家杜帅在解读2026年中央经济工作会议精神时表示，本次会议精准锚定中国经济发展的核心矛盾，以"稳增长、促消费、提收 入"为抓手的政策框架，既直面当下经济运行的痛点，也为高质量发展筑牢了底层逻辑，展现出清晰的问题导向与务实的施策思路。 在货币政策层面，会议将"促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"列为重要考量，这一调整直指CPI、PPI持续低迷的长期症结。杜帅分析，物价低迷本质上反映 出市场需求端的疲软，而货币政策的导向转变，并非简单的宽松刺激，而是通过引导物价合理回升，修复市场主体的盈利预期与消费信心，为宏观经济循环 注入流动性活力，这是破解"通缩预期"的关键一步。 对于会议提出的"深入实施提振消费专项行动""制定实施城乡居民增收计划"两大举措，杜帅认为这是抓住了扩大内需的"牛鼻子"。从居民收入数据来看， 2020-2022年全国居民人均可支配收入实际增速波动明显，2023-2025年前三季度虽企稳在5%-6%区间，但收入增长的稳定性与居民消费能力的释放仍有差 距。"消费是经济增长的持久动力，而收入是消费的基础，两大举措形成'增收-消费'的正向循环，能从根本上缓解国内供强需弱的矛盾 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，主要受到宏观与基本面双重作用影响。上周"反内卷"或使得市场交易情绪对低估值品种再度袭来，叠加合金端的供 应变动及煤焦板块对合金盘面的情绪冲击，使得价格走势偏强，但大厂对盘套保意愿显现，叠加需求短期偏弱迹象仍存，盘面高度或有压力 。 ◼ 宏观：国内：中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务： ①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期 ②在 物价方面，在多个领域提到涉及物价或反内卷方面的工作，显示政策重视的态度；海外：美联储如期再降息25基点。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量继续走弱，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁减产缓解前序压力，仍需注意炉料供应端生产节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周合金端，成本均表现坚挺，供应环比走弱，硅铁减产力度较大，使得市场交易供应预期收紧情绪较强，但上升力度有限，需关注盘面回升后利 润修复，或使得宁夏地区大厂生产节奏存在变动；锰硅端，锰矿需求维持，海外矿企1月报价环比抬升，港口锰矿价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the integration of investment in physical assets and human capital to stimulate economic growth and support the new development pattern [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The central economic work conference highlights the need to stabilize investment as a key task, especially in light of external environmental changes and domestic economic challenges [1]. - Fixed asset investment growth has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% from January to November, influenced by local government debt and real estate adjustments [1]. - Long-term effective investment opportunities remain, as per capita capital stock in China is still lower than that of developed economies, indicating room for growth in infrastructure and public services [1]. Group 2: Funding Sources - The central economic work conference proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increase central budget investment, optimize local government special bond usage, and leverage new policy financial tools to enhance funding sources [2]. - Predictions suggest that upcoming policies will help alleviate local financial pressures and amplify government investment's impact [2]. - The focus on high-quality implementation of major national strategies and projects aligns with the need for improved infrastructure and human resource development [2]. Group 3: Private Investment - The article stresses the necessity of a collaborative investment approach led by the government and driven by the market, aiming to enhance private sector participation in major projects [3]. - Measures have been introduced to stimulate private investment, including expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees [3]. - The central economic work conference calls for improving regulations to boost private sector confidence and investment willingness [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Demand - The development of new industries and the need to address existing gaps will continuously generate investment demand [4]. Group 5: Investment Growth Expectations - Investment is expected to have a greater elasticity compared to consumption, and with the implementation of various policies, investment growth in the coming year looks promising [5]. - More detailed work is required to ensure sustainable investment growth and optimize supply structure [5].

Economic Overview - "Anti-involution" has become a significant factor affecting economic operations, with fluctuations in economic data for November 2025 reflecting adjustments in industry prices and profit patterns during efforts to curb inefficient competition and promote structural optimization [2] - The current uneven pace of domestic demand recovery highlights the need for policies to focus on investment and consumption to stabilize growth [2] CPI Analysis - The CPI for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [6] - Food prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, with core CPI remaining stable at 1.2% [6] - The month-on-month core CPI saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating a mixed trend in consumer prices [6] PPI Analysis - The PPI for November 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [8] - The decrease in production materials and living materials prices reflects the impact of high base effects from the previous year [8] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month, indicating a balance in price movements across various sectors [8] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 was reported at 49.2%, showing a marginal improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - Key drivers of this improvement include increases in production and new orders, alongside better external demand conditions [12] - The raw material purchase price index has been in an expansion zone for five consecutive months, suggesting a potential for improved profitability for manufacturing firms [12] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment for January to November 2025 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [15] - The central economic work conference has proposed measures to increase central budget investments and optimize project management to reverse the declining trend in infrastructure investment [15] Credit Market - New RMB loans in November 2025 totaled 390 billion, a decrease from 220 billion in the previous month [19] - Short-term loans for residents fell significantly, reflecting weakened consumer confidence and employment expectations [19] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a notable decline in transaction volumes across major cities [19] M2 and Monetary Policy - The M2 growth rate for November 2025 was 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month, indicating a tightening monetary environment [23] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 suggests a shift in deposit behaviors, with businesses moving funds from demand deposits to time deposits [23]

近日，国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章指出，要做好"十五五"时期扩大有效投资工作，坚持扩 大内需这个战略基点，坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，着力拓展投资增长空间，着力增强政府投资 引导带动作用，着力激发民间投资活力，着力深化投资体制机制改革，保持投资合理增长，不断提高投 资效益，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，为加快构建新发展格局提供有力支撑。 明年是"十五五"开局之年，面对外部环境变化影响加深，和国内经济发展中的老问题、新挑战，中央经 济工作会议将坚持内需主导作为重点任务之一，并明确提出推动投资止跌回稳。稳投资将成为稳增长的 重要抓手。 今年下半年以来，固定资产投资增速出现回落，1~11月份同比下降2.6%。这既受地方政府化债、房地 产调整等当期因素影响，也折射出经济发展过程中新旧动能转换的阶段性特征。 不过，从长期视角来看，有效投资仍然具备广阔空间。我国人均资本存量仍低于发达经济体，水利、能 源、市政以及新型基础设施等领域仍存短板；统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，实现投资于物和投 资于人紧密结合，基础设施和公共服务投入力度还需加大；关键核心技术领域补短板、新兴产业和未来 产业快速发展，也都会产 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The latest macroeconomic data indicates that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy. The central bank's Party committee meeting points out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [36][37] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottom - hunting and recovery. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.02%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.03% [5] Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes - As of December 19th, compared with December 12th, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly downward. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively [8] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline. Different types of infrastructure and real estate investment also showed various changes [11] New Home Sales - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. In November, new home sales continued to decline significantly [14] Second - Hand Residential Sales Prices - In November, the second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. Second - and third - tier cities also had different degrees of decline [17] Social Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. From January to November, service retail sales increased by 5.4% year - on - year [19][22] Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. The growth rates of different industries also showed changes [24] Product Sales Rate - In November, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower year - on - year [27] Service Industry Production Index - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [30] Unemployment Rate - In November, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [32] Capital Interest Rates - This week, overnight capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.273%, and that of DR007 was 1.443%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.657% [34] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment and social consumption were lower than market expectations, while export growth exceeded expectations. The inflation level remained moderate, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [36] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [37]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 年末财政有多少余粮？ ——11 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1-11 月广义财政收入、支出累计同比分别回落至-0.2%、4.5%。第一本账收入中，税收当月同 比连续 8 个月为正，非税收入当月同比因高基数大幅回落。第一本账支出当月同比降幅收窄， 科技、卫生健康支出走强，基建类支出仍在压降。卖地收入当月同比仍大幅下行，但基金支出 加快投放力度。广义财政收入、支出累计同比均弱于年初预算，年末财政或留有一定余粮，往 前看，12 月是财政支出大月，无论年末财政余粮是在 12 月形成支出，还是结余至 2026 年形 成支出，预计均将对 2026 年上半年稳增长形成一定支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 年末财政有多少余粮？ 2] ——11 月财政数据点评 ...