Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity driven by the dual logic of "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [1][10]. - The supply side is expected to improve as the industry collectively addresses overcapacity issues through policy guidance and collaboration among enterprises [2][8]. - The demand side is bolstered by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is projected to generate substantial cement demand in Tibet [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry - The cement industry is witnessing a phase of supply-side improvement due to the government's focus on preventing "involution" and the coordinated efforts of leading companies to reduce overproduction [2]. - By the end of 2023, the designed capacity for new dry-process cement clinker in China is 1.84 billion tons, while actual capacity exceeds 2.1 billion tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of over 14% [2]. - The implementation of policies such as the capacity replacement measures is expected to lead to a significant reduction in actual production capacity, with a net decrease of 12.1 million tons achieved by April 2025 [2]. 2. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create a demand for 30-35 million tons of cement, significantly boosting the local market in Tibet [10]. - Infrastructure investment in water management has shown strong growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.4% as of June 2025, indicating robust support for economic stability [11]. 3. Price and Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected profit of 15-20 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the previous year [7]. - The average price of cement in the first quarter of 2025 is 397 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% due to lower coal prices and rising cement prices [7]. 4. Related Industries - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and price competition, leading to a collective 30% production cut by major manufacturers [8]. - The waterproofing industry is also experiencing a collective price increase among leading companies to combat low-price competition and rising costs [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that factors such as anti-involution, stable growth, and the Yajiang Hydropower Station are collectively driving the steel equity market [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,504, with a weekly increase of 7.7% and a year-to-date increase of 19.1% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,450 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.5% and a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.3% and a year-to-date increase of 5% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 926,000 tons, with a weekly change of 0.5% and a year-to-date change of 22% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills for five major products is 409,000 tons, with a weekly change of 1.1% and a year-to-date change of 16% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,794,000 tons, with a weekly change of 0.1% and a year-to-date change of 7% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 900,000 tons [9] - Daily average pig iron production is expected to reach approximately 240,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand measured in ten thousand tons [14]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results for such models or factors. The report primarily focuses on market analysis, index performance, valuation levels, and fund flows. Therefore, there are no quantitative models or factors to summarize based on the given content.

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the need to fully implement the Central Committee's economic work decisions and Xi Jinping's important instructions, focusing on stabilizing growth and promoting high-quality development [1][2] - The economic operation in the first half of the year has maintained a generally stable and improving trend, with efforts concentrated on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][2] - There is a recognition of the complex external environment and challenges to economic development, necessitating a unified approach to economic strategies and actions [1][2] Group 2 - The government aims to expand domestic demand and enhance the effectiveness of policies related to service consumption and emerging consumption sectors [2] - There is a focus on stabilizing industrial growth, ensuring food and livestock production, and supporting service sector enterprises to secure orders and expand markets [2][3] - The importance of innovation and reform in various sectors is highlighted, with an emphasis on integrating into the national market and enhancing the resilience of economic growth [2] Group 3 - Agricultural production for the autumn season is prioritized, with measures to compensate for summer losses and increase grain production [3] - Continuous support for key manufacturing industries and monitoring of their performance is essential to strengthen the industrial economy [3] - The government is committed to ensuring a favorable environment for growth through effective employment stabilization, safety production, and social governance [3]

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Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with the black sector leading the gains - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250725 [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the potential new Fed Chair's stance may affect interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies are expected to be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy - driven growth, especially in Q4. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak - dollar trend is expected [7]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence improved in June, leading to a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate for interest - rate cuts, with nominations expected between Oct - Dec 2025. US tariff policies may be finalized on Aug 1 and 12, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June exports rose 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure investment. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for policies to boost domestic demand, with more incremental policies likely in Q4 [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak - dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [7] 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: There is no need to overly worry about market adjustments, with expectations of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is for a volatile upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is increasing, but market sentiment remains positive. However, option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is weak. Key factors include unexpected tariff policies, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors include Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Shipping - For container shipping on the Europe route, attention is on the balance between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is cooling, and price increases are slowing. Key factors include the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, and overseas mine production. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and price increases are moderating. Key factors are steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coking Coal**: There are strong expectations for anti - cut - throat competition policies, and prices continue to rise. Key factors are steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: An anti - cut - throat competition plan for non - ferrous metals is about to be introduced, providing support for copper prices. Key factors are supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Key factors are slower - than - expected ore production resumption, faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment is weakening, and prices are falling. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, and geopolitical factors are key. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, and prices follow the cost side. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **Asphalt**: Main - producer spot prices are falling, and futures prices are adjusting due to high valuations. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on prices. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are following crude - oil prices and weakening. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] Agriculture - **Pig**: Market sentiment is cooling, with near - term prices weak and far - term prices strong. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and prices are oscillating at high levels. Key factors are weather in production areas, raw - material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points for the first time since January 2022. However, attention should be paid to the movement of profit - taking funds. The macro - financial market is affected by policies and inflation expectations, and different varieties have different investment strategies [12][13]. - In the black market, due to anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the inflation expectation through the supply - side is increasing. Steel and ore prices may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, while coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and policy factors [16][17][18]. - The non - ferrous and new materials market is influenced by "anti - involution" policies. Different products such as aluminum, alumina, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon have different trends and investment suggestions [23][24][25]. - In the agricultural product market, different products like cotton, sugar, eggs, apples, corn, dates, and pigs have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [27][29][32]. - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade. Crude oil, fuel oil, plastics, methanol, and other products have different price trends and investment suggestions [40][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - EU relations: President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations, and Premier Li Qiang hopes that the EU will provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises investing in Europe [8]. - Domestic policies: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, and the central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan this month [8][9]. - International news: Trump hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates; the European Central Bank maintains three major interest rates unchanged; the EU votes to impose counter - tariff measures on US products; the US and euro - zone PMI data show different trends [9][10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market logic continues, and the style continues to spread [12]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider short - selling at high levels or using treasury bond futures to reduce duration. Inflation and the money market are the core concerns of the bond market, and external factors such as the trends of stock indices and commodities should also be observed [13]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: Affected by policies, the inflation expectation through the supply - side is increasing. The market shows the characteristics of "off - season not weak". Supply is expected to remain strong, and demand may weaken marginally. Steel and ore prices may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16][17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: In the short term, due to the positive impact of macro and industrial policies, coking coal and coke prices have risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the production progress in the origin and the production situation of steel mills [18][19]. Ferroalloys - View: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels during the day and pay attention to position management [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The spot market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see [21]. - Glass: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the inventory has decreased. Low - position long - term holders can consider taking profits at high levels [21]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - Alumina: Affected by policy emotions, it is in a high - volatility stage. It is recommended to wait and see. If the overall sentiment of surplus industrial products weakens, short - selling can be considered [23]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the production suspension expectation is realized [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [25]. - Polysilicon: There is a contradiction between strong expectation and weak reality. Attention should be paid to the follow - up policies and the progress of warehouse receipt generation [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Cotton prices are still oscillating and rebounding. Short - term oscillating thinking and long - term short - selling at high levels are recommended [27]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar inventory is low, but the increase in processed sugar and the decrease in import costs put downward pressure on sugar prices. The short - term trend is oscillating [29]. Eggs - View: Eggs are in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the 09 - 01 reverse spread combination [32]. Apples - View: Light - position positive spread trading is recommended [33]. Corn - View: Corn prices are in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market supply - demand changes [34][35]. Dates - View: Light - position short - selling is recommended. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [36]. Pigs - View: Short - selling the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply is expected to exceed demand in the long term. It is recommended to short at high levels [40]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and trade negotiations [42]. Plastics - In the short term, the market sentiment may lead to a slightly stronger performance, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [42][43]. Methanol - Driven by the macro atmosphere, the price may be strong in the short term, but it is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider holding put options [44]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is affected by the overall commodity market. The spot market price has fluctuations, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is rising [44][45]. Asphalt - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and the production and inventory are expected to decline in August [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The overall market atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to lightly position long - term or continue to long the PX - PTA spread [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term. The futures price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [48].

Variety Views - On July 24, A-share's three major indexes hit new highs this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% to 3605.73, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21% to 11193.06, and the ChiNext Index up 1.50% to 2345.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.99 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on July 24, closing at 4149.04, up 29.27 [1]. - On July 24, the coke weighted index oscillated strongly, closing at 1750.3, up 37.2 [1]. - On July 24, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1227.0 yuan, up 87.3 [2]. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The price of coking coal has been raised, and the second - round price increase of coke spot has been implemented. The weekly start - up rate of coke enterprises has slightly declined, and supply has shrunk. In terms of demand, steel mills' profits are okay in the off - season, and pig iron production has rebounded from a high level. There is support from supply and demand, and coke enterprises' inventory has decreased [3]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines in production areas have limited output due to underground reasons, and some coal mines that were shut down have resumed production. High - frequency data shows that the upstream start - up rate has declined week - on - week, and domestic supply has shrunk. The China - Mongolia border port has resumed customs clearance. After the previous closure and improved market transactions, the port inventory has decreased, and the spot price of Mongolian coal has been raised. Although the start - up of coke enterprises has slightly declined, the increase in steel mills' pig iron production supports real demand [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the U.S. sugar's bottom - fishing and rebound on Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated higher on Thursday. Due to the effect of funds, it continued to rise at night. A commodity research report shows that the estimated sugarcane output in Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season has been adjusted down to 661 million tons (606 million tons from the central and southern regions), reflecting a decline in sugarcane yield per unit and a significant drop in output in the second half of June [3]. Rubber - Recently, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas has affected rubber tapping, reducing raw material supply and continuously raising spot prices. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Thursday. To avoid weather risks, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing Shanghai rubber to continue to oscillate upward at night. In June 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 7.3% year - on - year to 1.01 million vehicles, indicating challenges for automobile manufacturers in the global economic environment. In the first half of 2025, cumulative EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% year - on - year to 5.58 million vehicles [4]. Palm Oil - On July 24, palm oil continued to oscillate higher, hitting new highs. The highest price was 9106, the lowest was 8938, and it closed at 9104, up 1.22% from the previous day. According to GAPKI data, affected by a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia's exports of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year, mainly driven by demand from India and China. The output of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than 4.48 million tons in April but a 7.2% increase year - on - year [4][6]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate at a high level. Macroscopically, the possible tariff agreement between the U.S. and Europe has suppressed risk - aversion sentiment. LME copper closed up after a strong oscillation overnight, which has a positive impact on Shanghai copper. However, the reduced probability of an interest - rate cut in September will put some pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, global copper miners' rush to transport to the U.S. supports the price, and the continuous decline of LME inventory also supports the price. But the cautious downstream transactions in China and the approaching end of long - term orders, along with the possible increase in spot supply, will limit the upward space of the price. Technically, on July 24, the short - term indicators of the Shanghai copper main contract were bullish, with the 5 - day moving average crossing above the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages, the MACD forming a golden cross above the 0 - axis, and the KDJ also forming a golden cross, indicating upward momentum in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On July 24, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down 0.55% at 811 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrival volume dropped significantly. Pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level. The policy expectations of anti - involution and important meetings have boosted market sentiment, but the recent large increase in iron ore prices may lead to high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 24, the asphalt 2509 main contract closed down 0.28% at 3602 yuan. The start - up rate of asphalt plants continued to decrease this period, the planned output of local refineries in August decreased, supply shrank, inventory decreased, refinery shipments increased slightly, and downstream demand improved. The short - term price will mainly oscillate [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton. On July 25, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 45 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Logs - On July 24, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 824, with the lowest at 818.5, the highest at 835, and closed at 827.5, with a reduction of 604 lots. The pressure at high levels in the market increased. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the pressure at 850. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the support of spot - end prices, import data, and macro - expectations for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - On July 24, rb2510 closed at 3294 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3456 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season has strong resilience, and steel mills' profits remain at a relatively high level, so the overall output has limited room to decline. For rebar, steel mills' profits are at a relatively high level in the past two years, and their production enthusiasm is high, so the output may increase in the short term. In terms of inventory, after the price rebound, the middle and lower reaches have a certain willingness to replenish stocks, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season is lower than expected. In terms of demand, steel demand maintains resilience. With the continuous fermentation of anti - involution and the news of coking coal mine shutdown, steel prices have continued to rise, further stimulating speculative demand [8]. Alumina - On July 24, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly output of alumina rebounded slightly to 1.708 million tons this week, the operating capacity rose to 89.07 million tons/year, and the start - up rate also rebounded to 80.74%. The national installed capacity decreased from 110.82 million tons/year to 110.32 million tons/year, which may be related to the "capacity reduction" signal. Under the logic of the deviation between the fundamentals and the market, it is necessary to be vigilant about whether the market's high expectations for policies are overdrawn. Once the policy implementation rhythm or intensity falls short of expectations, combined with the continuous resumption of production and the re - easing of supply and demand, the price may still decline from a high level [8][10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 24, al2509 closed at 20760 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, overseas tariffs have been confirmed and are lower than expected, reducing uncertain risks and being beneficial to the recovery of overseas demand. China's "anti - involution" policies have driven up industrial metals, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged. Fundamentally, under the release of supply increment and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. In addition, the market's sentiment towards policies such as "anti - involution" and "high - quality development" has cooled recently, and the market has fallen after rising. The short - term aluminum price will mainly decline from a high level. Future attention should be paid to inventory and capital sentiment changes [10].