Macroeconomic Overview - The global economic and political landscape is complex, significantly impacting markets and international relations [1] - The US faces multiple pressures, with a decline in 2-year Treasury yields influenced by trade deficits and corporate pessimism, raising concerns about the impact of trade wars [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially in September, although investors remain worried about insufficient policy easing and uncertain market outlook [1] - Recent international trade developments include trade agreements between India and the UK, and the US and the UK, with some UK goods exempt from tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - In the energy market, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, leading to a drop in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia warning overproduction among member countries [1] - Political developments include Ukraine approving a mineral agreement with the US, and Oman reaching a freedom of navigation agreement with the US and Yemen [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations of no change in rates this time but potential future volatility [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, and between India and Pakistan, are also areas of concern for investors [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 100.077 and a low of 99.143, closing at 99.239 [2] - The dollar index faced resistance at 99.60, and traders are advised to be cautious until a breakout occurs [2] - The index is currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with key support at 98.90 [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, reaching a high of 3434.61 and a low of 3323.14, closing at 3430.31 [4] - The price is supported by the daily line, and further upward movement is anticipated unless a significant drop occurs [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3340-3350 range, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this range is broken [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1279 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1368 [7] - The market is supported at 1.0800 for long-term positions, while short-term fluctuations are being monitored around 1.1320-1.1380 [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. - China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. [8][12] 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 19,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,885 yuan/ton, 20,105 yuan/ton, 19,920 yuan/ton, and 19,885 yuan/ton respectively. As of April 11, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [15] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Alumina Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 million tons, in Bayuquan was 0.3 million tons, and in Qingdao Port was 0.2 million tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years. [21] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 223,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the inventory in Foshan was 132,000 tons, in Wuxi was 38,500 tons, and in Nanchang was 16,500 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the national inventory was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years. [25] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of April 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 205,627 tons, a decrease of 9,447 tons from the previous week. As of April 10, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 446,325 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 43.82%. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 697,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 23,000 tons, in Wuxi was 251,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 250,000 tons, in Tianjin was 20,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 120,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 11,000 tons. [28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Fed officials have indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, and the policy divergence between the Fed and the US government is emerging. China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. [5][38] 3.6 Future Outlook - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [6][39]