Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][14][18] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][18] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, highlighting a trend of weakening labor demand [1][18] Fixed Income - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - The domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on supercapacitors expected to drive a second growth curve for Jianghai Co., Ltd. [10] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the supercapacitor market, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% in the domestic market from 2017 to 2023 [10] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the supercapacitor business, particularly in AI computing applications, as the company collaborates with multiple AI clients [10] Company Recommendations - Yapu Co., Ltd. is expected to see revenue growth from 9.123 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.961 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding net profit increase from 575 million yuan to 756 million yuan [9] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve revenues of 4.565 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.770 billion yuan by 2027, with net profits expected to rise from 791 million yuan to 1.025 billion yuan [13] - China Pacific Insurance is maintaining a positive outlook with projected net profits of 51.6 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 55.3 billion yuan by 2027 [12]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - Multiple public fund institutions believe the economy is at a critical stabilization phase, with clear macro policy signals aimed at steady growth [2] - Monetary policy is moderately loose, and fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, covering areas from traditional investments to consumption and real estate [2] - Investment in new productive forces is on the rise, suggesting a favorable era for RMB assets [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment on A-shares and H-shares - Public fund institutions generally hold an optimistic view on A-share and H-share market trends, citing high attractiveness for equity assets based on stock-bond valuation indicators [3] - Confidence in the capital market's medium to long-term development is supported by government policies and improving corporate governance [3] - The expectation of increased foreign capital inflow into A-shares and H-shares is driven by a weakening US economy and excess savings entering various financial products [3][4] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Technology, pharmaceuticals, and gold are highlighted as key investment sectors in the autumn investment strategy meetings [3][4] - The technology sector remains a primary focus, with an emphasis on high-end manufacturing and hard technology, particularly AI [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to perform well in the medium to long term, with growth potential in oncology, weight loss drugs, and autoimmune disease treatments [4] - Gold is seen as having significant allocation value due to a weak dollar trend and uncertainties in the global economy, although short-term fluctuations may occur [4]

Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][12][16] - Gold prices surged, breaking the $3600 per ounce mark, driven by concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and US rate cut expectations [1][12] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI, CPI) will significantly influence the tone of the September FOMC meeting [1][12][16] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the US added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [2][16] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor demand [2][16] - The labor market is characterized by a "bizarre balance" of weak supply and demand, leading to a more pronounced decline in job additions compared to the rise in unemployment [2][16] Fixed Income Market Insights - The issuance of green bonds increased to approximately 8.767 billion yuan, reflecting a growing interest in sustainable finance [3] - The secondary market for green bonds saw a decrease in trading volume, totaling 48.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential cooling in investor interest [3] - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with limited downward movement in bond yields despite significant stock market corrections [4][5] Industry Analysis: Semiconductor Sector - The domestic computing power sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased activity in GPU orders from major internet companies [10] - Companies like Cambrian and Haiguang are actively pursuing capital operations and acquisitions, indicating a bullish sentiment in the semiconductor space [10] - The release of new high-performance chips is expected to drive further growth in the domestic computing power market, with significant implications for internet and ODM companies [10] Company-Specific Insights: NIO Inc. - NIO's new vehicle performance is strong, but the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to increased industry competition [11] - Despite the downward revision, NIO maintains a "buy" rating based on its comprehensive technology layout and marketing strategies [11]

Core Insights - Recent strength in the equity market has led to a dilemma for newly established funds regarding the timing of their investments [1][2] - Some fund managers have begun to build positions, while others remain cautious and are observing market conditions [3][4] Fund Activity - Several newly established funds, such as the Guotai Quality Core Mixed Fund, have started building positions shortly after their inception, with the fund's net value rising to 1.0035 within a week of its launch [2] - The healthcare sector has gained attention, with funds like the Jianxin Medical Innovation Stock Fund seeing a return of 2.45% since its establishment [2] - Other funds, including the Yifangda Value Return Mixed Fund, have shown slight fluctuations in net value since their launch [2] Manager Strategies - Not all fund managers are actively investing; for instance, renowned manager Xu Yan has maintained a largely "empty" position in his newly established fund, with a total return of -0.06% as of September 10 [3] - Some managers are making selective purchases, such as Ji Jun Kai from Haifutong Fund, who recently increased his stake in a technology ETF based on long-term industry trends [3] Market Outlook - Fund managers suggest that investors should evaluate their strategies based on current market conditions, with a focus on a "core + satellite" approach for A-share allocations [4] - The overall market is perceived to be in a historically average range, with equities still offering attractive allocation opportunities compared to bonds [5]

Report Information - Report Title: "Bonds Rise Amid Dispute - Asset Allocation Weekly" - Date: September 7, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng, Huang Hailan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the entity sector's debt growth rate trending downward. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the whole society's expectations [2][19]. - In the short - term, the capital market shows a pattern of "stock bear and bond bull", with risk preference declining. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style turns to value dominance [6][24]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio and an A - share portfolio [9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In July 2025, the debt growth rate of the entity sector was 9.1% (previous value 8.9%), expected to drop to about 9.0% in August and further decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The capital situation in the financial sector may be tight in September [2][19]. - The net increase of government bonds last week was 184 billion yuan (higher than the planned 156.5 billion yuan), and this week's planned net increase is 578 billion yuan. The government's debt growth rate is expected to decline to 12.5% by the end of the year [3][20]. - The one - year Treasury bond yield is expected to have a lower limit of about 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.8% [3][20]. Asset Side - After a brief stabilization in June, the physical quantity data declined again in July. The full - year nominal economic growth target in 2025 is about 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][21]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation tightened, risk preference declined, and the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, and the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.40% [6][24]. - The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.07 pct last week and - 7.11 pct since July. The maximum drawdown was 12.1% (compared with the CSI 300's 15.7%) [6][24]. - This week, the report moderately increases the proportion of growth stocks, recommending the CSI 1000 index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][27]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, A - shares declined with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose 2.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, power equipment, comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, medicine and biology, and textile and apparel had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and steel had the largest declines [32]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of September 5, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel [33]. - The top five industries with increased crowding this week were power equipment, commercial retail, media, medicine and biology, and basic chemicals, while the top five with decreased crowding were computer, non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, electronics, and food and beverage [33]. - As of September 5, the crowding of power equipment, communication, electronics, machinery, and commercial retail was at relatively high percentiles since 2018, while that of petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, and coal was at relatively low percentiles [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, beauty care, and textile and apparel had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and communication had the smallest increases [39]. - As of September 5, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, auto parts, beauty care, and consumer electronics [40]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a general recovery. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.7 to 50.9 in August, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput rebounded [44]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the ten - industry fitted capacity utilization rate continued to rise slightly from July to August [44]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of September (September 1 - 5), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 5, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.05 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [61]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly focus on industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2025.9.1 - 2025.9.5), the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.25bp to 1.7675%. The stock - bond relationship remains an important theme this year. The ERP indicator is used to measure the stock - bond cost - performance. It is expected that the ERP will fall back to the central value, and the 10Y treasury bond yield will rise moderately, with the top at 1.85% [1][10][14] - Gold has strong allocation value currently. The short - end of US bonds has higher winning probability, and the long - end has higher odds. The long - end's higher volatility and long - duration may become the key to allocation [1][15] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been contracting for six consecutive months, while the service PMI has expanded at the fastest pace in half a year, exceeding market expectations. The US labor market is cooling, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month [17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Assessment**: This week, the 10 - year active treasury bond yield decreased from 1.78% to 1.7675%. The daily fluctuations were affected by factors such as regulatory statements, capital conditions, stock market trends, and policy expectations [10][11] - **Analysis of US Bond Yield Trends**: Gold has strong allocation value. The short - end of US bonds has higher winning probability, and the long - end has higher odds. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for six consecutive months, and the service PMI has expanded rapidly. The labor market is cooling, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates this month [15][17][20] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From 2025/09/01 - 2025/09/05, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 12047 billion yuan, showing a net withdrawal of funds [29] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR have changed to different degrees, with most showing a downward trend [31] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total commercial housing transaction area has declined across the board [50][51] - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices have declined across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have shown mixed trends [52] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: This week, 19 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 933.91 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 566.83 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 367.09 billion yuan [80] - **Provincial Distribution**: Five provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, and Shandong ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [82] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Transaction Volume and Turnover Rate**: The current stock of local bonds is 53.08 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 3601.18 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.68% [100] - **Regional and Maturity Distribution**: The top three provinces with active local bond transactions are Jiangsu, Anhui, and Sichuan, and the top three active maturities are 5Y, 30Y, and 10Y [100] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - No specific plan details are provided, only a related chart is mentioned [107] 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance and Net Financing**: This week, 177 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1366.97 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1919.64 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 552.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 248.59 billion yuan compared with last week [107] - **Sub - category Issuance and Net Financing**: The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 377.95 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 174.72 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of - 239.53 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of - 241.28 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing of - 89.04 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 48.46 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing of - 31.27 billion yuan [108][112][113] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 4.26bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 2.94bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 14.97bp [118] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 4606.97 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and credit ratings [119] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally decreased, while the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][121][123] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds widened across the board, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [127][130][133] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, the rating spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the rating spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [136][139][143] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week are presented in a table, but specific details are not provided in the text [148]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for September 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued, while values above 100% indicate overvaluation. As of September 2025, the indicator is at 80.89% [3][23]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio percentile shows the current P/B ratio's position relative to historical data. A lower percentile indicates cheaper valuations. As of September 2025, the large-cap value and growth styles are at 67.71% and 50% respectively, while small-cap styles are at 74.55% and 50.74% [4][25]. - The stock-bond yield ratio, which compares the earnings yield of the CSI All Share Index to the yield of 10-year government bonds, is currently at 2.56. A ratio above 2 typically indicates a favorable investment opportunity in stocks [4][27]. - The current financing balance in the A-share market is 22,808 billion yuan, indicating a relatively low market activity level, which can suggest a bearish sentiment [4][32]. Qualitative Signals - The trading volume percentile is at 99.80%, indicating that current trading activity is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting a more active market [5]. - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are also monitored. A high failure rate typically indicates a bearish market. Recent trends show a decrease in new stock issuances, which is common during bear markets [5][38]. - The relationship between the CSI All Share Index total return and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity. A closer alignment to the M2 bottom suggests a bearish market condition [5][40]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds down by 50-60% compared to their peak in 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence [5][43]. - The issuance of new funds has been at historical lows, with a notable increase in the issuance of A500 index funds recently, but still far from the peak levels seen in 2021 [5][48]. Summary - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions through various quantitative and qualitative signals, indicating a mixed sentiment with some signs of undervaluation and low market activity, while also highlighting recent increases in trading volume and specific fund issuances [58][59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current equity market valuation is still within a reasonable pricing range, and future market trends depend on fundamental improvements to digest existing valuations [1][2] - As of August 22, the Shenyin Wanguo A-share index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 21.68 times, which is at the 76th percentile of the past 10 years and the 65th percentile of the past 20 years, indicating a relatively high P/E ratio despite the price-to-book (P/B) ratio being at a historical median level [1] - The stock-bond valuation ratio has fallen below the 40th percentile, suggesting that equity assets still hold certain allocation value [1] Group 2 - Recent disclosures of listed companies' semi-annual reports indicate an improvement in performance compared to the same period in the previous two years, suggesting a potential bottoming out of fundamentals [2] - The market style is expected to shift from the previous "dividend + small-cap" structure to high-growth sectors if fundamentals confirm a recovery [2] - Overall, the market is likely to continue a "central oscillation with an upward shift" in its operational rhythm in the near term [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Autumn Investment Summit held by Huatai Securities focused on long-term planning and new opportunities in growth sectors such as digital assets, AI+, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Huatai's Chief Macro Economist Yi Han indicated that domestic fiscal policy will maintain diversity and that the U.S. may continue a trend of monetary easing, contributing to global economic resilience [1] - Yi Han warned investors about the declining credibility of the U.S. dollar and suggested a more open attitude towards asset allocation, particularly in scarce assets like equities [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Head of Research Zhang Jiqiang noted that the price-performance ratio between stocks and bonds is narrowing, with a focus on whether corporate earnings can follow market recovery [2] - Zhang expressed confidence in the long-term revaluation of Chinese assets, despite potential volatility in the stock market [2] - From a quantitative perspective, Huatai's Chief of Financial Engineering Lin Xiaoming advised caution regarding U.S. equities, which are at a cyclical high, while suggesting opportunities in U.S. Treasuries as the economic cycle shifts [2] Group 3 - The commodity market is experiencing a pause in the long-term upward trend of gold, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while still recognizing its hedging value [3] - Copper prices may decline if the global economy enters a downturn, while black commodities and crude oil are currently at relatively low levels, expected to experience wide fluctuations [3] Group 4 - Huatai's Chief Strategist He Kang suggested that the A-share market may see a return on equity (ROE) turning point in the fourth quarter, with a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven market dynamics [4] - He recommended focusing on sectors that have shown signs of overbuying while reserving some capital to manage potential future volatility [4] Group 5 - Huatai's Analyst Li Yujie highlighted the increasing importance of the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing that it should not be viewed merely as an extension of the A-share market but as a distinct market with core and scarce assets [5] - The advantages of the Hong Kong market lie in sectors such as internet and software, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are currently experiencing positive trends [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The relative value advantage of the domestic stock market over bonds has declined but remains relatively high compared to historical levels. Strategically, investors can continue to rely on the negative correlation between stocks and bonds for portfolio allocation, and tactically, the dynamic weight allocation still favors overweighting stocks [1][2][8]. - Since August, the increase in Hong Kong stocks has significantly lagged behind that of A - shares, possibly due to liquidity differences. There may be potential catch - up opportunities for Hong Kong stocks when the Fed turns dovish, and the indicative significance of the AH premium may be weakened [2][19]. - Globally, A - share valuations are still relatively low and may have significant room for improvement from perspectives such as the stock market capitalization/GDP ratio [2][27]. - In the US stock market, during the interest - rate cut cycle, small - and medium - cap and cyclical sectors, which are more sensitive to interest rates, may perform relatively well in the short term, while leading technology stocks with strong earnings may remain the long - term main theme [1][2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: New and second - hand housing transactions have marginally stabilized, export throughput has maintained resilience, and price trends are differentiated. The central bank has continuously supported the liquidity, and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut provides room for subsequent incremental monetary policies. Fiscal policy may see a window of opportunity around the junction of the third and fourth quarters. Real estate policies continue to boost demand [3][45][47]. - Overseas: The US economy has maintained resilience. Powell's dovish speech signaled a possible interest - rate cut in September. The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI reached a 9 - month high [46]. Configuration Suggestions - **Large - scale assets**: The Fed's dovish stance steepens the US Treasury yield curve, benefiting global cyclical assets. It is advisable to use gold as a defensive position. A - shares are expected to be active in the short term and re - evaluated in the long term. The US Treasury yield curve is more likely to steepen, and short - end operations have higher certainty. The volatility of US stocks may increase in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge risks. Commodity sentiment has generally improved [4][39]. - **Domestic bond market**: The current bond market has weak coupon protection, high speculation, and strong sentiment - driven characteristics. Interest rates are likely to have an upper limit. It is recommended to look for opportunities after October and focus on curve steepening transactions. Avoid some volatile bond varieties [39]. - **Domestic stock market**: Near - term events may disrupt the market, but the overall environment remains favorable. Investors are advised to focus on the "hard technology" theme and explore "anti - involution" sub - themes. Increase trading flexibility if certain signals appear [40]. - **US Treasury bonds**: The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut has increased. It is expected that there will be at least two interest - rate cuts this year. Short - term trading may revolve around interest - rate cut expectations, and long - term, the probability of a steepening yield curve is higher. Band trading is recommended, with higher certainty at the short end [41]. - **US stocks**: After the Fed turns dovish, cyclical sectors may perform well in the short term, but there may be回调 risks. Technology stocks may remain the long - term main theme. It is recommended to hedge risks and wait for opportunities after Nvidia's earnings report [41]. - **Commodities**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar have warmed commodity sentiment. Mineral stocks may have greater elasticity. Gold is expected to be strong, oil prices have bottomed out but are bearish in the long term, and copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [44]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: China's official and S&P Global manufacturing PMI for August, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit [61]. - **Overseas**: The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, July existing home sales index monthly rate, July core PCE price index annual and monthly rates, and other economic data from the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan [61].