货币宽松政策

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0619热点追踪:白银这是不行了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 08:59
Core Viewpoint - The silver futures contract experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.91% to 8819 yuan/kg, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with hawkish comments from Powell regarding inflation pressures [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, which was in line with market expectations [1]. - Powell's hawkish remarks indicated that rising inflation could hinder the rate cut process, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated, with Trump approving plans for strikes against Iran, although no attack orders were issued yet [1]. - Iran responded by highlighting the range of its missiles that could target multiple U.S. bases in the region, with its leadership firmly stating that Iran would not surrender [1]. - Ongoing airstrikes between Iran and Israel have not shown signs of resolution, raising concerns about potential U.S. involvement and its implications for the conflict [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The lack of signals for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve suggests a weakening support for silver prices from monetary easing policies in the short term [1]. - The impact of geopolitical tensions on safe-haven investments like silver may increase if the U.S. directly engages in the conflict; otherwise, the influence of these tensions on the market may diminish [1].
中东紧张局势打击风向偏好 新兴市场货币与股票齐跌
智通财经网· 2025-06-17 23:31
Group 1 - Emerging market currencies and stocks have declined due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with indices dropping over 0.4% before narrowing to a 0.1% decline at close [1] - The South African rand, Hungarian forint, and South Korean won were among the worst performers, each depreciating over 1% against the US dollar, while the Israeli shekel dropped as much as 0.8% before recovering [1] - The market is under pressure from risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, fund managers believe that the strong performance of emerging markets relative to US assets will continue, as the risks from the conflict are not expected to be deep or prolonged [4] - Emerging markets are expected to outperform other markets in macroeconomic growth this year and next, with international investors recognizing the need to diversify their investments [7]
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250609
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 01:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of government bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. The short - term is lack of momentum to push the market interest rate down continuously, and the subsequent trend depends on policy guidance. The government bond futures have strong bottom support due to various factors such as the expected future easing policy [4]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with an overall view of shock, mainly because of rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is shock - biased - strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. - The core logic is that last Friday, government bond futures rose across the board. The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, increasing medium - term liquidity and sending a signal of increased quantitative monetary easing, which boosted the investment demand for government bonds. However, there is insufficient short - term momentum to push market interest rates down. The subsequent trend of government bonds depends on policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Currently, the uncertainty of the tariff outlook is deepening, domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderate monetary policy easing remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong bottom support for government bond futures [4].
凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司:卡什卡利表示不要忽视了关税对美国经济的长期影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 09:55
对经济放缓的担忧不断加剧,但美联储仍坚持在没有更多确凿数据的情况下,不急于采取进一步的货币宽松措施。 在全球贸易摩擦持续的背景下,如何平 衡通胀控制与经济增长支持,成为美联储及其他央行决策者面临的重大挑战。卡什卡里的发言表明,当前美国的经济环境充满不确定性,如何应对这一局 势,需要更加谨慎和精细的政策调整。 自去年十二月以来,美联储将政策利率维持在百分之十点二五至四点五之间,主要原因是无法准确评估新关税政策对通胀和经济增长的具体影响。虽然市场 卡什卡里强调,由于美国的通胀已经连续四年超过美联储设定的百分之二的目标,市场对长期通胀预期的担忧加剧。更重要的是,关税的影响并非即时显 现,尤其是对中间品征收的关税将在传导至最终消费者价格时产生延迟。这意味着,虽然短期内降息可能对经济有促进作用,但从长远来看,关税对美国经 济活动的影响仍需要进一步观察和评估。 他进一步补充道,当前全球贸易谈判可能会持续数月甚至数年,贸易伙伴间相互反应的关税上调可能使局势更加 复杂。在这种背景下,美联储应保持警惕,直到关税政策及其对价格和经济活动的具体影响更加明确。卡什卡里强调,捍卫长期通胀预期是他的首要任务, 因此维持当前利率水平,避免 ...
法国通胀意外跌至五年新低,欧洲央行6月降息概率飙升
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-27 11:12
当市场还在猜测欧洲央行下一步动作时,法国最新通胀率意外暴跌至五年来最低水平,为央行激进宽松政策扫清了最后障碍。 法国国家统计局周二公布的数据显示,5月份CPI同比上涨0.6%,远低于4月份的0.9%,更是大幅低于经济学家预期的0.9%。这一数字创下五年来 新低,远低于欧洲央行2%的中期通胀目标。 | 14:45 | 法国5月CPI同比初值 | ★★★ | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | ना | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14:45 | 法国5月CPI环比初值 | ★★★ | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | ना | | 14:45 | 法国5月调和CPI同比初值 | ★★★ | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | ना | | 14:45 | 法国5月调和CPI环比初值 | ★★★ | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | गा | 面对如此疲软的通胀数据,法国央行行长Francois Villeroy de Galhau表示: 通胀数据远超预期下滑,欧洲央行6月降息概率飙升 法国5月通胀的大幅回落主要受到能 ...
经济萎靡+通胀持续缓和 韩国央行有望开启新一轮降息
智通财经网· 2025-05-27 02:07
5月19-25 日期间接受调查的36位全球范围内的经济学家全部预计,韩国央行将于5月29日把韩国基准利 率下调 25个基点至2.50%,该水平的利率上次出现于2022年8月。 来自法国兴业银行的韩国首席经济学家吴锡泰表示:"4月的货币政策会议上,政策制定者们已强烈暗示 将会降息,且短期经济增长预期也可能被显著下调。此后公布的数据并未出现足以阻止韩国央行降息的 因素。事实上,一季度经济收缩、美国关税不确定性持续以及美元/韩元汇率下跌,都进一步支持韩国 央行货币宽松政策。" 在提供长期利率展望的27名受访经济学家中,有 23位经济学家预计到下一季度末基准利率将在当前水 平基础上再降50个基点至 2.25%,该观点与上期调查数据大体一致。 智通财经APP获悉,一项面向多位经济学家的最新调查数据显示,他们集体预计韩国央行将于周四把关 键政策利率下调25个基点,主要因上季度韩国经济活动意外萎缩且通胀持续趋于温和,加之央行的政策 制定者们已经充分暗示了降息可能性,为韩国央行重启宽松货币政策周期提供了重要的数据凭证。 值得注意的是,韩国央行行长李昌镛此前在4月的货币政策会议上已暗示降息的可能性,叠加几天后公 布的韩国官方数 ...
欧元区5月PMI跌破荣枯线 德法“经济引擎”双双失速
智通财经网· 2025-05-22 09:11
智通财经APP获悉,欧元区5月私营部门活动意外萎缩,服务业创16个月来最差表现。标普全球周四公 布的数据显示,欧元区综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从4月的50.4降至5月的49.5,跌破50的荣枯线。分析师 此前预计该指数将小幅升至50.6。 欧元区私营部门5月份萎缩 今年前几个月,欧元区20国经济表现稳健,尽管贸易不确定性抑制了企业投资和家庭支出,但仍超出预 期。然而,2025年的增长可能会受到限制,欧盟委员会本周预测 GDP 将增长0.9%。 增长动力主要来自该地区两大经济体之外的国家。德国的PMI同样令分析师意外,因服务业表现疲软而 跌破50。与此同时,法国的PMI连续第九个月低于荣枯线。 下个月,该地区可能会得到提振,分析师预计欧洲央行将在此轮周期中第八次下调存款利率,至2%。 进一步的货币宽松政策是否跟进,将取决于美国的贸易政策。欧洲央行官员将在季度展望中公布几种情 景,以更好地了解潜在结果。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia在一份声明中表示:"欧元区经济似乎始终难以站稳脚跟。虽然 服务业的外部需求正在减弱,但拖累该行业的主要因素似乎是疲软的国内需求。" 长期以来的制造业疲软是部 ...
三菱日联:日本央行的政策立场可能继续支撑日元
news flash· 2025-05-20 12:23
金十数据5月20日讯,三菱日联的分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中表示,日元应该会继续得到支 撑,因为日本央行发出的信号仍倾向于进一步加息,而其他10国集团央行正在降息。"即使日本央行最 终不再加息,它也不太可能恢复货币宽松政策,这将继续支撑日元。"与此同时,美国财长贝森特和日 本财务大臣加藤胜信本星期将会晤,讨论包括外汇在内的问题。Halpenny说,贝森特认为日本央行的货 币政策导致美元兑日元汇率被高估,这一观点可能会抑制日本央行降息的意愿。 三菱日联:日本央行的政策立场可能继续支撑日元 ...
热点切换要加速,个股下周危险了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 13:44
Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is expected to have significant impacts on the market [1][2] - There is a high expectation for continued monetary easing, but the timing of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor due to internal and external interest rate differentials [2][3] - Recent social financing data indicates a positive signal, with government departments initiating credit expansion, although both residents and enterprises remain cautious [3] Group 2 - The market has experienced significant volatility, leading to challenges in timing investments correctly, with many investors feeling they are "only earning the index but not making money" despite a nearly 10% index increase since April 7 [3][4] - Investors often misjudge market movements, leading to poor decision-making, such as selling at lows or buying at highs, which can result in missed opportunities [4][6] - Understanding the true intentions of institutional funds is crucial for improving trading success rates, as many investors rely solely on price movements [6][7] Group 3 - Advanced data analytics can help identify different trading behaviors, allowing investors to better align their strategies with market movements [7][9] - The analysis of trading behaviors reveals that price movements may not always reflect the underlying intentions of institutional investors, highlighting the importance of data-driven insights [9][11] - There are multiple trading behaviors beyond simple price increases or decreases, which can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [11]
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250516
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报(2025 年 5 月 16 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面不佳,焦煤弱势震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原料供应宽松,焦炭震荡走弱 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:焦煤(JM) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡思路 核心逻辑:5 月 15 日夜盘,焦煤主力再次走弱,均线维持 ...