24日,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一期LPR:1年期LPR为3.0%,5年期以上LPR为 3.5%。自2025年6月以来,两个期限品种的LPR连续9个月保持不变。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示, 短期内货币政策处于观察期,政策利率和LPR报价大概率保持稳定。 新华 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recovery of the U.S. stock market, particularly the rebound of major indices, has significantly alleviated the tension in the cryptocurrency market, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim the $65,000 mark [1][4] - The collective rebound of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, with the Dow gaining 370 points and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.77%, provided crucial macro support for the cryptocurrency market to halt its previous decline [1][4] - A notable "super whale" spot buy of approximately $4.5 million was observed, which, while not massive in absolute terms, exceeded the typical order size for such investors, indicating a defensive positioning by deep market funds [1][4] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently at an extreme oversold level, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 25.71, the lowest since July 2022, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [2][5] - The price of Bitcoin is less than 9% away from its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately $58,855, a level that has historically acted as a significant support [2][5] - Analysts indicate that for a true reversal to occur, Bitcoin must achieve a balance in the risk-reward ratio and confirm mining cost prices, with future monetary policy direction being a critical factor [2][5] Group 3 - Although the current oversold signals present a possibility for a rebound, confirmation of the bottom will require time and sustained liquidity [3][6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the support strength of the 200-week moving average and any marginal changes in macro liquidity policy, as the market often needs additional positive catalysts to initiate a new upward trend [3][6]

法国兴业银行策略师在一份报告中称，英镑兑挪威克朗汇率看起来岌岌可危，因为该汇率比其长期平均 水平高出15%，尽管货币政策前景预示着该汇率应处于更低水平。伦敦证券交易所集团的数据显示，在 1月份挪威通胀数据高于预期之后，市场预期挪威央行今年降息的可能性很小。相比之下，市场预期英 国央行将在年底前降息两次。这些策略师表示，虽然挪威克朗因将克朗转换为外币资产的政策而受到抑 制，但英国和挪威相对的货币政策和增长前景意味着，有充分理由卖出英镑兑挪威克朗。英镑上涨 0.5%，至12.9615挪威克朗。 ...

新华财经上海2月25日电受央行公开市场操作提振，25日银行间市场资金面在税期走款和节后资金收敛 双重压力下表现平稳有序，上海国际货币经纪有限责任公司编制的CNEX资金面情绪指数日内快速回 落，反映出资金面紧张情绪得到明显缓解。 在金融市场的日常监测中，资金面情绪指数是一个重要的"体温计"。该指数采用与PMI类似的0至100刻 度形式呈现，50为供需均衡线，数值超过50表明资金面趋于紧张。截至25日收盘，CNEX全市场资金面 情绪指数出现三连降，收报48，较早盘下跌4点，显示节后资金紧张情绪快速消退，市场心态趋于平稳 宽松。 细分来看，大型银行、中小银行及非银机构的资金面情绪指数分别报46、49和48，均较早盘各跌4点， 表明各类金融机构对资金面的预期普遍转向乐观，跨节后的流动性担忧得到有效缓解。 此外，央行于2月25日通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）债券投标平台，以利率招标 方式发行了2026年第一期和第二期央行票据。其中，300亿元3个月期央票中标利率1.53%，200亿元1年 期央票中标利率1.47%。 华安证券首席投顾郑虹表示，结合本月早些时候开展的买断式逆回购操作，2月份央行通过"ML ...

正文 《国情咨文（State of the Union Address）》，是美国总统依据《美利坚合众国宪法》第二条第三款 的法定要求，于每年年初向美国国会参众两院联席会议发表的年度施政纲领演讲与国家治理报告。它既是美 国行政分支向立法分支履行法定政务通报义务的核心制度安排，也是总统面向全美公众与全球传递政策信号 的最高规格政治活动。其内容通常涵盖过去一年的执政成果总结、内政外交核心挑战研判，以及本年度主推 的立法议程、预算方案、民生与国家安全核心施政优先事项。除法定通报功能外，它更是美国总统推动国会 立法、凝聚国内政治共识、开展公众政治动员的关键载体，是全球观察美国国家政策走向与战略布局的核心 权威窗口。历经两百余年演变，除新任总统就职当年通常发表国会联席会议特别演讲外，历任总统均会按惯 例发表这一年度演讲，如今更通过电视、网络渠道实现全球同步传播，其影响力早已超越美国国界。 北京时间2026年2月25日10点，美国前总统、现任总统特朗普发表了其第二任期内的首次国情咨文演 讲。本次演讲时长近110分钟，创下美国国情咨文演讲时长的历史纪录，官方主题定为"美国250年：强大、 繁荣与受尊重"，精准紧扣美国建国2 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the platinum and palladium main contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed significantly higher. Macroscopically, although the US inflation and GDP data have weakened periodically, Fed officials have successively sent out cautious signals, weakening the market's bets on interest rate cuts this year. Tariffs and the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran have heated up again, leading to high market risk aversion. If the tariff and geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continue to fluctuate, the risk premium may continue to support the prices of platinum and palladium on the beta side of the precious metals market. Fundamentally, platinum prices may continue to show strong resilience driven by rising costs at the South African supply - end, cautious capital expenditure by mining companies, and a tight inventory situation. Recently, due to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, the market's concern about supply tightening from Russia may support palladium prices to a certain extent. However, the recovery of palladium's recycled supply and the structural substitution in the automotive sector may cause it to move relatively in a volatile manner. In terms of price range, London platinum has a resistance level of 2200 US dollars and a support level of 2000 US dollars; London palladium has a resistance level of 1800 US dollars and a support level of 1600 US dollars. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 650 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 500 yuan/gram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract is 586.00 yuan/gram, up 38.50 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 457.95 yuan/gram, up 19.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 584.02 yuan/gram, up 38.93 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 431.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 1.98 yuan/gram, up 0.43 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 26.95 yuan/gram, down 16.70 yuan [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index is 97.90, up 0.17; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.78%, up 0.01%. The VIX volatility index is 19.55, down 1.46 [2] 3.2 Industry News - The US White House stated that President Trump's preferred option on the Iranian issue is always diplomacy, but is willing to use lethal force if necessary. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that based on the consensus reached in the previous round of negotiations, Iran will resume negotiations with the US in Geneva and is determined to reach a fair and reasonable agreement in the shortest possible time. - Fed Governor Cook said that AI has triggered a generational change in the US labor market, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed may not be able to respond with interest rate cuts, and monetary policy may be in a dilemma: interest rate cuts cannot effectively address structural unemployment and may push up inflation. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that it is not appropriate to further cut interest rates until there is more evidence that inflation is continuously falling. Goolsbee pointed out that policymakers have been taught a lesson in the past for "misjudging inflation as only temporary" and should not repeat the same mistake. - Sources said that Japanese Prime Minister Hayami Sanae expressed clear concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest rate hikes during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo last week, and her stance was significantly tougher than during their last meeting in November last year. - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15% [2] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - On February 25 at 18:00, the eurozone's January CPI monthly and annual rates. - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment claims data for the week ending February 21. - On February 27 at 21:30, the US January PPI monthly and annual rates [2]

国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.47%报112.7，10年期主力合约跌0.13%报108.48，5年期主 力合约跌0.10%报106.065，2年期主力合约跌0.06%报102.458。 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率上行1.75BP报1.9610%，10年 期国债"25附息国债22"收益率上行2BPs报1.81%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行1.25BP报 2.2330%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.12%，报531.41，成交金额750.5亿元。优彩转债、大中转债、精装转债、华阳 转债、华亚转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、9.66%、8.46%、7.49%、5.91%。微导转债、汇成转债、山 玻转债、家联转债、睿创转债跌幅居前，分别跌10.20%、10.05%、9.01%、5.29%、4.96%。 新华财经北京2月25日电债市周三（2月25日）震荡走弱，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券同步疲 软，收益率午后升幅进一步扩大至2BPs左右；公开市场单日净投放95亿元，除隔夜品种外资金利率多 数回落。 机构认为，货币政策"适度宽松"的定调未 ...

新华财经北京2月25日电泰国央行货币政策委员会以4比2的投票结果，意外宣布将基准利率下调25个基 点至1.0%，打破市场普遍预期。 此前，路透调查显示27位经济学家中有21位预测央行将维持1.25%利率不变。 泰国央行此举标志着正式开启新一轮宽松周期，旨在应对经济增长乏力、泰铢过度升值及通胀下行风险 三重压力。 此次降息虽令市场意外，但逻辑清晰：在出口占GDP近60%的背景下，泰铢持续升值已严重挤压企业利 润；同时，国内需求疲软、私人投资不足，使货币政策成为最可行的逆周期工具。尽管金融体系稳定良 好，但"增长乏力"已成为政策制定者的核心关切。 泰国央行行长于24日就当前经济形势与政策方向作出全面阐述，明确指出泰国经济虽保持"稳定良好"， 但面临"增长乏力"的严峻现实，且根本原因在于"结构性问题"。为应对这一挑战，央行将采取"政策组 合"，综合运用财政与货币政策，并辅以金融监管改革，以提振投资、支持中小企业并遏制通缩风险。 行长强调，"有必要实施短期刺激措施；需要投资以提振经济"，并透露已制定具体行动方案。其中包 括：计划帮助小企业获得信贷，以激活私营部门活力；出台针对金融机构收费的新规；以及要求银行报 告超过 ...

二是2025年10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，加之2026年1月央行结构性货币政策工具降 息、加量、扩围，会带动今年一季度信贷较大规模投放，以上都会在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。 由此，央行2月加量续作MLF，延续较大规模中期流动性净投放，能够有效应对潜在的流动性收紧态 势，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行、引导银行稳固信贷支持力度的同 时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 开年以来，更加积极的财政政策靠前发力，国债、地方政府专项债券等政府债券发行进一步提速。1月 政府债券融资增量在全部社会融资规模中的占比达到13.5%，为2021年以来同期最高水平。央行保持市 场流动性充裕，将支持政府债券顺利高效发行。 2月25日，人民银行在公开市场上以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借款便 利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 当日，央行还以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4095亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.4%。因今日 有4000亿元逆回购、3000亿元MLF到期，叠加央行开展的6000亿元MLF操作，公开市场实现净投放 30 ...