Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various futures, stocks, and bonds. It also details important macro - economic, energy, and geopolitical news, which have significant impacts on the market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil closed down 9.53% at $88.87 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 9.44% to $96.37 per barrel [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME tin up 2.82% at $44,500 per ton, LME copper up 2.44% at $12,221 per ton, etc. [4]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 3.60% at $4410.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.49% at $69.32 per ounce [5]. Important Information Macro - Information - Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, but Iranian media said there was no direct or indirect communication between the two sides [8]. - Iran denied the claim of charging $2 million for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [9]. - China and the EU held the second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism [9]. - As of March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 8.8% compared with the previous period [10]. - Iran is reviewing the US letter through mediators, and Trump is shifting from military pressure to negotiation [11]. - An Iranian official said Trump has no right to set conditions for negotiations, and the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [13]. - The so - called negotiation between the Iranian parliament speaker and the US is a false news [13]. - The US Department of Defense is considering deploying a combat brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - DCE adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin of LPG futures contracts [15]. - Many countries are considering increasing oil purchases from Russia, and India is actively considering it [15]. - India is ensuring oil and gas supply, has strategic oil reserves, and is planning to increase them [15]. - As of March 23, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 2.28% compared with last Thursday [17]. - China took temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices [17]. - Saudi Aramco cut crude oil supply to Asian buyers in April [17]. - The IEA is consulting with Asian and European governments on releasing more reserve oil [17]. Metal Futures - China's polysilicon imports in January - February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year [19]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to pay attention to market risks [19]. - A Fed governor said the central bank should not make policies based on short - term factors of the Iran conflict [21]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange stated that lithium carbonate futures delivery products meet the standards [21]. Black - Series Futures - Coke prices in some regions of China are planned to increase [23]. - Rising diesel prices may bring additional fuel costs to iron ore mining enterprises [23]. - China's iron ore arrivals at ports from March 16 - 22, 2026, showed different trends [23][24]. - In mid - March, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was flat compared with the previous period, but increased compared with the beginning of the year and the same period last year [26]. Agricultural Futures - In February 2026, China's corn starch imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [28]. - As of March 20, Brazil's soybean shipping plan to China was at a high level in recent years [28]. - Since March, the domestic oil mill operating rate has been rising, and the soybean weekly crushing volume is close to 2 million tons [29]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 68%, and the second - season corn sowing rate was 97% [29]. - As of March 19, 2026, the US soybean exports to China decreased compared with the previous week [31]. - In the third week of March 2026, Brazil's soybean shipments decreased compared with the same period last year [31]. - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7% [32]. Financial Market Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.63% to 3813.28 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also declined. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan [34]. - Although the A - share market was volatile on Monday, many institutions are optimistic about its long - term trend [34]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.54% to 24382.47 points [34]. - Since 2026, 46 listed companies have announced major shareholder share - increasing plans, and related companies have received net margin purchases [36]. - 20 listed companies disclosed share - repurchase plans or progress on March 23 [36]. Industry - Three departments in Beijing约谈ed 12 platform companies and put forward rectification requirements [37]. - The head of the National Data Bureau said it will promote the computing - power and electricity coordination project [37]. - State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [38]. Overseas - The US vice - president and the Israeli prime minister discussed negotiations with Iran [39]. - The Israeli prime minister said Trump thought there was an opportunity to achieve war goals through an agreement [40]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a military strike on Israel and some US military bases [40]. - Since the start of the conflict, 6848 people were injured and 636 people died in Tehran [40]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30% [41]. - A Fed governor thought it was too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy and supported interest - rate cuts [41]. - The Chicago Fed president said inflation was the main risk and did not rule out interest - rate hikes [42]. - The US ambassador to the EU warned the EU about tariffs if it fails to approve the trade agreement [43]. - Japan's largest labor union achieved a 5.26% salary increase, raising expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [43]. Stock Market - US stocks rose, with the Dow up 1.38%, the S&P 500 up 1.15%, and the Nasdaq up 1.38% [45]. - European stocks showed mixed results, with the German DAX up 1.22%, the French CAC40 up 0.79%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24% [45]. - Asia - Pacific stocks fell, with the South Korean Composite Index down 6.49%, the Nikkei 225 down 3.48%, and the Indian SENSEX30 down 2.46% [46]. - The US SEC submitted two rule drafts for review, including digital asset regulation [46]. - South Korea is about to launch single - stock leveraged ETFs [46]. - Berkshire Hathaway will invest $1.8 billion in Tokio Marine [47]. - SK Hynix is planning to list in the US and raise funds for capacity expansion [48]. Commodity - Oil prices fell due to the easing of geopolitical concerns [49]. - Precious metal futures fell due to Fed policy uncertainty and other factors [49]. - Base metals rose [49]. - The IEA is consulting on releasing oil reserves, but it cannot fundamentally solve the supply shortage [50]. - The US energy secretary said the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves is low [50]. - Japan is evaluating the feasibility of intervening in the crude oil futures market [52]. - South Korea will control naphtha exports and release strategic oil reserves [53]. Bond - The domestic bond market was under pressure, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds rising [54]. - The People's Bank of China will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on March 25 [55]. - The trading association optimized the registration and issuance mechanism for debt - financing tools [55]. - The issuance of convertible bonds has accelerated this year [55]. - US bond yields fell [55]. - Japan may cut the repurchase scale of inflation - linked bonds [56]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell on Monday [57]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index rose, while the SDR currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index fell [57]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies showed mixed results [57]. Upcoming Events - A series of economic data will be released at different times, including Japan's CPI, PMI data of various countries, etc. [59]. - There will be speeches by central bank officials and other events, such as the New Zealand Fed governor's speech, and the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 will be held from March 24 - 27 [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The central bank will maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and use various tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - The state has implemented temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices, the first in 13 years [2] - A-share market experienced a broad decline on the 23rd, with significant differentiation in industry performance and strong risk aversion among funds [3] - There is a clear regional divergence in global markets, with Asian-Pacific markets slumping and European and American markets performing strongly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic News - The central bank will adhere to a supportive monetary policy, using tools like reserve requirements, policy rates, and open market operations to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - The state's temporary regulation on refined oil prices led to an actual increase of 1,160 yuan/ton and 1,115 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel respectively, instead of 2,205 yuan/ton and 2,120 yuan/ton calculated by the price mechanism [2] - There is a discrepancy in the US-Iran negotiation situation. Trump claims progress and a possible agreement in 5 days, but Iran denies the dialogue [2] A-share Market - A-share market suffered a broad decline on the 23rd, with major indices dropping over 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.63%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.76%, and ChiNext Index 3.49% [3] - Market turnover slightly increased to 2.45 trillion yuan. The total A-share market capitalization is 106.14 trillion yuan, down 2.61 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [3][9] - Industry performance was highly differentiated. Coal (+0.20%) and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.06%) were the only sectors to close higher, while social services (-6.41%), beauty and care (-6.02%), and electronics (-5.44%) led the decline [3] Global Markets - Asian-Pacific markets had a "Black Monday," with the South Korean Composite Index plummeting 6.49%, the Hang Seng Index falling 3.54%, and the Nikkei 225 and India SENSEX30 also declining [3] - European and American markets performed strongly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.38%, the NASDAQ Index rising 1.38%, and the German DAX Index rising 1.22% [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index dropped 0.35% to 99.16, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar slightly decreased 0.29% to 6.886 [3][5] - The 7-day pledged repo weighted average rate dropped 0.5 BP to 1.426%, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 0.3 BP to 1.835% [3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US-Iran war has become the core disturbance factor in the global market, triggering expectations of a significant increase in crude oil prices and further fueling global inflation concerns. In this context, central banks around the world have adopted a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, with major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all choosing to maintain current interest rates. The latest statement from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sent a hawkish signal, indicating that further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The central banks' cautious stance has further strengthened the market trend of a simultaneous increase in real interest rates and the US dollar. Coupled with a continuous decline in the market's expectation of near-term interest rate cuts, the US dollar index has strengthened, and US bond yields have risen, putting continuous pressure on the valuation of precious metals. If the US dollar remains strong and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to be postponed, the downward pressure will persist. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.30% to 980.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.88% to 17,246.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.37% to 4,423.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.49% to 69.70 US dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.34%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.11 [2]. Policy Information - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that inflation has become the primary risk, and an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out, but there is still room for interest rate cuts within the year. Fed Governor Milan said that if there is a second-round effect of inflation and wage increases, there is a theoretical need for an interest rate hike, but there is currently no need to consider it, and he still expects four interest rate cuts in 2026 [2]. Geopolitical Information - US President Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran had conducted good and productive talks on comprehensively resolving hostilities in the Middle East in the past two days, and the talks would continue this week. He has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone a five-day military strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, provided that the talks are successful. The Iranian Foreign Ministry, senior leadership, and Iranian media all denied having negotiations with the US, stating that Trump's aim was to lower energy prices and gain time for his military plan [3]. Gold and Silver Data Summary - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the trading volume was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.62% to 41.14 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.07% to 996 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price decreased by 0.82% to 4,562.55 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/gram decreased by 9.55% to 940.00 yuan/gram, the trading volume increased by 25.38% to 85.46 million lots, the open interest decreased by 2.27% to 29.31 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.09% to 106.75 tons, the settled funds decreased by 11.60% to 44.082 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 11.49% to 920.99 yuan/gram [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The trading volume of AuT+D increased by 24.04% to 104.37 tons, and the open interest increased by 6.20% to 241.49 tons [6]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was not available, the open interest decreased by 0.61% to 11.48 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.18% to 10,329 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price increased by 3.83% to 72.37 US dollars/ounce, the closing price of the active contract in yuan/kilogram decreased by 12.56% to 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume increased by 10.80% to 202.63 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.58% to 45.60 million lots, the inventory increased by 0.57% to 364.55 tons, the settled funds decreased by 13.07% to 18.973 billion yuan, and the closing price of the short-to-long position decreased by 14.12% to 15,269.00 yuan/kilogram [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The trading volume of AgT+D decreased by 7.90% to 478.84 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.08% to 2,916.42 tons [6]. ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.31% to 475.87 tons, the SGBS Swiss gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.08% to 35.05 tons, while the GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK gold ETFs' holdings remained unchanged [67]. - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price of silver ETFs increased by 1.54% to 62.47 US dollars, the holding increased by 1.74% to 15,513.67 tons, the settled funds of the SLV US silver ETF decreased by 5.50% to 3.352 billion US dollars, the trading volume increased by 27.25% to 7,182.99 million shares, and the holdings of the ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada silver ETFs remained unchanged [67].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market, focusing on convertible bonds and government bonds, with insights into the broader financial market dynamics as of March 2026. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 7.1% in March, reversing all gains for the year, indicating high volatility in the market [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 3.6% on March 23, 2026, marking a significant decline, with historical comparisons showing similar drops in previous years due to external factors [2] Institutional Fund Flows - There was a notable net redemption of fixed-income products, particularly from wealth management subsidiaries, which significantly impacted high-volatility products [2] - Institutions primarily sold off sectors such as electronics, power equipment, banking, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals, while showing interest in automotive, basic chemicals, and machinery sectors [2] Future Market Scenarios for Convertible Bonds - Three potential scenarios for the convertible bond market were outlined: 1. **Optimistic Scenario**: A short-term rebound leading to price increases in equity-type and mid-to-low priced convertible bonds [3] 2. **Volatile Scenario**: A period of market fluctuation with limited new capital inflow, delaying overall valuation increases [4] 3. **Pessimistic Scenario**: A shift in market sentiment leading to significant risks, particularly for lower-quality convertible bonds [4] Investment Strategies - Emphasis on identifying convertible bonds with strong debt support and a high likelihood of conversion success, targeting a price of 130 yuan to trigger strong redemption [5] - Recommendations to maintain cautious positions and focus on structural allocations, particularly in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds with favorable conversion prospects [5] Government Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to fluctuate between 1.78% and 1.85%, while 30-year bonds may reach up to 2.3% [6] - The market is anticipated to experience a directional choice soon, with significant attention on the upcoming special government bond issuance plan [6][10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of the central bank actively withdrawing MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) is low, with a supportive monetary policy stance expected to continue [7] - Key signals to watch for include the wording in MLF announcements and the potential impact of external geopolitical factors on domestic monetary policy [7] Credit Bond Market Dynamics - Funds are the primary players in the credit bond market, with significant net purchases observed, particularly in the 1-3 year maturity range [9] - The trend of funds heavily investing in credit bonds is expected to persist into the second quarter, despite potential risks associated with concentrated positions [10] Key Variables to Monitor - Upcoming special government bond issuance plans and their market impact [8] - Economic data releases in early April to assess ongoing economic trends [10] - Fluctuations in oil prices and their implications for monetary policy [10] Additional Important Content - The records highlight the importance of structural investment strategies in a volatile market environment, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of both domestic and international economic indicators [5][10]

Group 1 - The central viewpoint is that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to supporting economic growth through a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming for stable growth and high-quality development amidst complex external conditions and domestic demand-supply imbalances [1] - The monetary policy will focus on "moderate easing" as the main trend, with a comprehensive use of various policy tools to ensure liquidity is abundant, especially in light of structural challenges such as insufficient demand and low price levels [1][2] - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is approximately 6.3%, with an expected room for a reduction of about 50 basis points to release long-term funds and lower bank funding costs [2] Group 2 - Financial support for consumption sectors will be enhanced through targeted structural tools, directing financial resources towards areas like culture, tourism, dining, and elderly care to stimulate consumption potential [3] - The PBOC's re-lending for technological innovation aims to provide funds at preferential rates to financial institutions, encouraging increased credit support for technology-driven enterprises [3] - A scientific risk assessment mechanism is needed to guide financial institutions in avoiding excessive financing to industries engaged in "involution" competition, which undermines resource allocation efficiency and industry upgrades [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading of inflation expectations may have come to a temporary end. Before the next round of price data is released, the market's motivation for re - pricing inflation is limited, and the trading focus is expected to shift from fundamental expectations to the marginal changes in the capital and liquidity environment. The central bank is likely to continue to support liquidity and hedge through other monetary policy tools at key points, but there may still be a "frictional" liquidity shock due to the staggered rhythm of liquidity withdrawal and injection and the end - of - quarter factors. It is recommended to moderately reduce the allocation weight of highly crowded ultra - short - term assets and focus on 3 - 5 - year bonds [2][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 1.8%, showing a mild recovery. Manufacturing investment was resilient, and state - owned investment accelerated, while private investment was still in a cautious range [5]. - In March 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, remaining unchanged from the previous month. The reason may be that the comprehensive social financing cost has decreased, and the net interest margin of banks is still under pressure [9]. - On March 20, 2026, the draft of the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China was publicly solicited for opinions. The central bank focuses on the dual - pillar framework of monetary policy and macro - prudential policy, the National Financial Regulatory Administration focuses on micro - prudential and conduct supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission focuses on capital market construction [10][11]. - In March 2026, the Fed maintained the policy interest rate, but the expectation of interest rate hikes increased. The market's pricing of the interest rate cut path in 2026 has converged, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is over 50% by December [12]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From March 16 to 20, 2026, the central bank injected 2423 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1765 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 658 billion yuan. From March 23 to 27, 2026, the expected maturity and withdrawal of base money is 6923 billion yuan [17]. - Last week, liquidity was still relatively loose, with DR001 fluctuating around 1.32%. As of March 20, 2026, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.396%, 1.477%, 1.321%, and 1.421% respectively, with changes of 0.45BP, - 2.64BP, - 0.09BP, and - 4.07BP compared to March 16 [20]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Conditions - Last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 758.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 87.19 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 1162.86 billion yuan, an increase of 154.66 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net financing scale was - 404.17 billion yuan [27]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit for state - owned banks were 1.48% and 1.53% respectively, with changes of - 2.00BP and - 2.83BP from the previous week [31]. - In the secondary market, the demand for liquid assets was still strong. The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the term spread widened to some extent [33]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, last week, 98 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 1071.234 billion yuan, a maturity amount of 253.192 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 818.042 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of national bonds in 2026 was slightly behind that of local bonds [35]. - In the secondary market, long - term bonds were still weak, while medium - and short - term bonds continued to perform well. The yield curve became steeper. The active bonds of 10 - year national bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds changed, and the average spread between the active and secondary - active bonds of 10 - year national bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds widened [35][45]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - In February 2026, the leverage ratio of inter - bank institutions decreased seasonally, and the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased from a high level. Last week, the scale of leveraged trading remained high due to the relatively loose liquidity environment [61]. - In the cash bond market, large banks bought a large amount of national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, small and medium - sized banks continued to increase their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, insurance companies increased their buying efforts, securities companies continued to sell, and funds continued to prefer policy financial bonds [70]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 5.97% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures decreased by 5.71% week - on - week, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 2.04% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.37% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 2.02% week - on - week [86]. - The CCFI index decreased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.75% week - on - week. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.53% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 5.02% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.41% and 1.78% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.92 [86]. 6. Market Outlook - In the short term, the trading of inflation expectations may have ended. The trading focus will shift to the capital and liquidity environment. The central bank is likely to maintain the overall stability of the capital market, but there may be a "frictional" liquidity shock. It is recommended to reduce the allocation of ultra - short - term assets and focus on 3 - 5 - year bonds [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The alumina market may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand with positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. Options market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum and Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,555 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,093 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of alumina was - 36 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 13,232 hands to 266,791 hands, while those of alumina increased by 974 hands to 246,810 hands [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,192 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 429,675 tons, down 3,050 tons [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 22,525 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 44,991 tons, down 2,741 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,400 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 24,030 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - **Base Spread**: The base spread of casting aluminum alloy was 1,875 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the base spread of electrolytic aluminum was - 115 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the base spread of alumina was - 363 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production**: The monthly alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the national alumina starting rate was 82.10%, down 0.39%; the total alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00% [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 18,650 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 17,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 56,401.89 tons to 136,323.65 tons, and the export increased by 33.81 tons to 55.23 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 21.82 million tons, up 1.33 million tons; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 129.90 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The monthly aluminum product output was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The monthly automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Alloy Production**: The monthly aluminum alloy production was 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, and the total built - in production capacity was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 21.63%, up 0.0202%; the put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.73, up 0.0271 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's stance on market competition and maintaining a fair market order at the China Development Forum 2026 [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the central bank's monetary policy stance, including supporting economic growth, maintaining liquidity, and promoting financial opening [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, expressing the hope for stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan announced fiscal policies to boost consumption, including issuing special treasury bonds and setting up special funds [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry remains unchanged, and the upward space in March and April is limited. It is difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to materialize. The main logic is the support from news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track airline quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US-Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price is 1957.400, up 57.0; EC secondary main contract closing price is 2692.9, up 338.90. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 is -428.80, up 49.50; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 is -408.60, up 24.40. The EC contract basis is -264.14, up 123.37. The EC main contract position is 17696 lots, down 74 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1024.11, down 85.00. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity is 1227.97 ten thousand TEUs, up 0.10. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1463.75, up 18.88. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2056.00, up 1.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1904.00, up 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 0.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 24559.00, down 159.00 [1] Industry News - US President Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the US will attack and destroy Iran's "various power plants". Iran's parliamentary speaker pointed out that if Iran's power plants are attacked, the entire Middle East's energy and oil facilities will be regarded as legitimate targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will take four measures if Trump's threat is carried out. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, and ships from non - hostile countries can pass safely [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and keep liquidity abundant [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract EC2604 rose 3%, and the far - month contracts rose between 6 - 14%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index is 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8%. The US - Iran conflict has led to higher oil prices, which has pushed up container transportation costs and driven up futures prices. Spot prices have also risen due to high oil prices [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation unexpectedly accelerated. The CPI in February increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation have increased the expectation of a tighter ECB policy, and the market fully prices in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [1] Key Events to Watch - March 24, 07:30, Japan's February core CPI annual rate; 16:15, France's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 16:30, Germany's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:00, eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:30, UK's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 21:45, US's March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for the steel industry [2] Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly production of rebar continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 44.57%. Downstream demand continued to improve, with the apparent demand exceeding 2.05 million tons, and inventory turned from increasing to decreasing. Overall, both supply and demand of rebar increased, the inventory inflection point appeared, and the rising cost of furnace materials pushed up the bottom support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA crossed and rebounded, with the green bar turning red [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the position volume was 1,351,388 lots, down 35,832 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -43,823 lots, up 12,269 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -28 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,455 tons, up 10,669 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 176 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 136 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.0267 million tons, down 0.8913 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 523,500 tons, down 37,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8778 million tons, up 1,600 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.4953 million tons, up 90,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.80%, up 1.44 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.55%, up 2.65 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, up 80,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 44.57%, up 1.75 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.362 million tons, down 34,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.5321 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 66.67%, up 7.29 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, down 1.24518 billion square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, down 536.86 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, up 35.16 million square meters [2] Industry News - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island. From March 9th to March 15th, the second - hand housing transactions in Shanghai reached 7,233 units, a 27% increase from the previous period, setting the highest weekly transaction record since 2021 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates a weak adjustment in Shanghai zinc prices, and suggests to pay attention to the support level at 24,000 yuan [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,800 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is -30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,056 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 190,975 lots, down 7,875 lots [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is -2,059 lots, an increase of 3,358 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 152,266 tons, an increase of 4,918 tons; the LME inventory is 117,675 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,370 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is -130 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -24.61 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.22 dollars [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is 29,000 tons, an increase of 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 9,200 tons, an increase of 84,300 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0104 million tons, a decrease of 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 414,000 tons, a decrease of 180,800 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 4,518.01 tons, a decrease of 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 3,866.38 tons, an increase of 1,847.88 tons [3] - The social zinc inventory is 236,000 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.4 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.38 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 63.2042 million square meters, a decrease of 540.2771 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.68%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.68%, down 0.27 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.91%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 20.39%, down 0.17 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain adequate liquidity [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones, increasing direct and inclusive policies for consumers [3] - There are tense geopolitical situations between the US, Israel, and Iran, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear - related issues [3]