菲律宾央行下调关键政策利率至5.0% 系年内第三次降息 中新社马尼拉8月28日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾中央银行28日宣布，将关键政策利率下调25个基点至 5.0%。这是今年以来菲央行连续第三次降息。 与此同时，隔夜存款和贷款利率分别降至4.50%和5.50%。菲央行此前已于今年4月和6月分别降息25个 基点。自去年以来，该行已累计下调关键政策利率150个基点。 菲央行行长雷莫洛纳表示，当前通胀前景总体保持稳定，是本轮继续降息的主要依据。根据最新预测， 菲律宾2025年全年通胀预期为1.7%，较此前预测的1.6%略微上调；2026年和2027年通胀预期分别为 3.3%和3.4%，与此前的预测也基本保持一致。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 不过，菲央行也警告称，潜在的电价调整及大米关税政策变化或将推高通胀压力。近期菲律宾米价持续 回落，为保护本地稻农，菲政府自9月1日起暂停所 ...

周四，全球金融市场整体维持区间波动，投资者消化企业财报的同时，等待来自美国通胀的新信号。 股市整体保持稳健，而外汇与债市波动率则依旧受限，凸显出在美联储偏好通胀指标——个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数公布前的谨慎基调。 科技与人工智能板块焦点：英伟达财报超预期 市场焦点继续集中在科技板块，英伟达最新财报超出市场预期，强化了投资者对人工智能需求持续的乐 观情绪。尽管英伟达的乐观展望提振了市场信心，但投资者对进一步追高依然保持谨慎，广泛的科技股 指数在近期反弹后显示出一定疲态。 财报表现凸显出人工智能相关个股的强劲，同时也揭示了美国股市对集中度风险的敏感性。 外汇与债市波动平淡 在外汇市场上，美元窄幅震荡，投资者在PCE数据公布前大多选择观望。主要货币对也维持在紧窄区间 波动。 美债收益率小幅调整，但整体仍处于近期区间，反映出市场在押注美联储未来降息与对通胀持续性不确 定性之间的平衡。 PCE数据能否成为催化剂？ 展望未来，7月PCE物价指数将是本周最受关注的数据。一旦结果偏弱，可能强化市场对美联储今年晚 些时候更接近降息的预期；但若数据强劲，则可能重新引发对通胀粘性的担忧，并推迟市场对政策转向 的押注。 不过， ...

来源：滚动播报 欧洲央行管委雷恩：如果美联储的独立性受到破坏，通胀必然会上升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，上半年美国关税实际征收力度不及预期，企业提价的速 度也偏慢，使得通胀回升幅度相对温和。下半年美国实际进口平均税率将进一步抬升，企业提价速度或 将有所加快，在需求稳定的情况下，美国通胀或继续"慢热"起来。短期来看，"慢热"的通胀为美联储提 供了9月降息空间，但9月后是否能连续降息仍具有较高不确定性。 消费通胀：或逐步"慢热"。在商品中，汽车零部件、新车、服装鞋帽、家具陈设及用品等对进口的依赖 度较高。不过新车、服装鞋帽、个人护理、其他耐用品等分项目前关税传导仍不明显。总体来看，若年 内美国实际平均进口税率上升10%，在需求稳定的情况下，关税或将推升PCE同比增速至3.1%，推升核 心PCE同比增速至3.4%；而如果需求明显回落，则有助于缓解美国通胀压力。短期来看，"慢热"的通胀 为美联储提供了9月降息的空间，但9月后是否能开启连续降息仍具有较高不确定性。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 风险提示：美国就业市场持续恶化，特朗普对美联储施压力度增大 关税政策：税率加了多少？6月美国实际平均进口税率仅较2024年底上升6.6个百分点，明显不及市场预 期。美国进口结构的变化以及应税商 ...

曾任野村资产管理公司主席的Nakagawa被市场视为货币政策立场中立者。去年退出长达十年的大规模 刺激计划后，日本央行于1月将利率上调至0.5%，认为日本正处于持续实现2%通胀目标的边缘。 日本央行7月维持利率不变但上调通胀预期并给出更乐观的经济展望，令市场对今年加息的预期持续存 在。但7月会议纪要显示，顽固的高食品通胀和持续工资增长前景已促使部分委员警告可能引发第二轮 价格效应，或需再次加息。 在周四的演讲中，Nakagawa指出工资上涨压力可能持续推高物价，进而影响家庭信心和通胀预期。 智通财经APP获悉，日本央行审议委员Junko Nakagawa周四表示，美国关税政策带来的持续不确定性可 能打压企业和家庭信心，进而对日本及全球经济造成潜在拖累。 尽管日美已达成贸易协议且其他主要经济体间的贸易谈判取得进展，"但仍存在诸多不确定性，"该委员 在央行网站发布的演讲中表示。其结果是"全球范围内的企业和家庭信心"可能受到影响，并"进而拖累 国内外经济。" Nakagawa重申若经济走势符合预期，日本央行将继续加息，但强调在不确定性加剧的情况下需谨慎评 估数据以制定政策。 她特别指出即将发布的"短观"企业景气调查 ...

周四（8月28日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.13，跌幅0.06%，开盘价为98.19。国金宏观研报指 出，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会的讲话中出人意料地转向鸽派。 美元指数近期呈现出复杂的走势。此前美元指数从 100.15 的低点一路上涨到 110.18 的次高点后，再次 开启承压回落的走势。目前整体价格跌破并运行在 MA250 下方，并且跌破 100 的整数关口，呈明显的 空头趋势。从相对强弱指标(RSI)来看，目前处于 50 附近，表明市场多空力量相对均衡。 鲍威尔对劳动力市场的观点发生了180度转变，开始极度担忧就业下行风险。这种转变与7月不降息的决 定相悖，难以单纯用经济数据变化来解释。研报认为，这或许证明了特朗普长期以来对美联储施加的政 治高压正在取得回报。尽管美联储此前对2025年的降息预期维持在两次（共50个基点），但鲍威尔这次 清晰的鸽派信号，不仅强化了市场对9月降息25个基点的预期，也增加了年内连续降息的可能性。报告 提醒，过度宽松的货币政策环境可能带来副作用。大幅降息后，美国经济的再加速可能面临更高的通胀 中枢。这意味着美国未来或将面临更难控制的通胀动态，以及"今年更滞、明年更胀 ...

摘要周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3398.47美元/盎司附近，日内关注至8 月23日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、美国7月成屋签约销售指 数月率等数据。随着美联储独立性危机加剧，周三黄金价格连续第二个交易日走高，最终收涨0.10%， 收报3396.59美元/盎司。 周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3398.47美元/盎司附近，日内关注至8月23 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、美国7月成屋签约销售指数月 率等数据。随着美联储独立性危机加剧，周三黄金价格连续第二个交易日走高，最终收涨0.10%，收报 3396.59美元/盎司。 | 15分 30分 60分 打开金投网APP 策 [] | 分时 5日 日K | 周K | 月K | 55 | === | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 2 | 2025/08/28 开 3385 74 宫 3387 34 此 3387 34 任 3385 49 幅 0 04% | | | | 总之，PCE数 ...

全球金融市场风云突变，导火索竟是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上释放出的"鸽派"信号。这一信号犹如平地一声 惊雷，瞬间引爆了市场热情，美元应声下跌，黄金价格一路飙升，美国股市也突破新高。对鲍威尔此前一直口诛笔伐的特朗 普，态度来了个180度大转弯，立即发推文盛赞鲍威尔"干得漂亮"。 资本市场的嗅觉最为敏锐，全球资金流向也随之发生剧烈变化。高盛的数据显示，对冲基金正以七周以来最快的速度增持中国 股票，就连一向谨慎的韩国散户也加入到"扫货"A股的行列，其激进程度甚至超过了中国本土投资者。中金、中信以及高盛等机 构纷纷预测，未来将有5万亿至10万亿的资金涌入A股市场，这无疑为中国股市注入了一剂强心剂。 外资之所以如此青睐中国市场，看中的是A股的"性价比"。目前，美国标普500指数的市盈率高达24倍，泡沫风险日益加剧，而 中国沪深300指数的市盈率仅为11倍，正处于五年来的低位。同时，人民币汇率稳定在7.18附近，中国政府也在积极运用各种政 策工具，如降准、专项再贷款、上市公司回购等，将A股市场打造成为了全球罕见的"安全洼地"。 高盛的分析师预计，如果美联储年内降息75个基点，至少将有5000亿外资涌入A股市场 ...

当地时间7月30日，美联储两天的货币政策会议落幕，利率依旧稳在4.25%到4.50%之间，纹丝不动。这已是今年连续第五次"按兵不动"，市场早已猜到这 招。 降息梦破，特朗普的七月注定凉凉！ 要知道，特朗普几乎把抨击鲍威尔当作每日必修课，狠话说到飞起，甚至扬言要把鲍威尔拉下主席宝座。结果，美联储这一波操作直接让他急得像锅里的蚂 蚁。降息背后的算盘，说白了就是政治账 经济账的双重盘算。 看看上半年经济数据，美国商务部给的答案是——惨淡！今年一季度GDP竟然负增长0.3%，直接宣告经济缩水。而物价呢？从5月底到7月初，全国所有联 储区价格齐刷刷上涨。加上关税政策的"炸弹效应"，要是贸然降息，无异于给火上浇油，经济过热、通胀失控，后果不堪设想。 所以，真正的看点在9月！7月会议只是前哨战，9月才是决战时刻，美联储独立性能不能挺住，就看这一仗。 现在，FOMC内部已分成三派：一派急于降息，担心劳动力市场崩；一派谨慎派，坚持等经济明显走弱再说；中间派则盯着数据，想确认关税影响是否可 控。沃勒和鲍曼站在激进阵营，甚至毫不掩饰未来接班鲍威尔的野心。7月投下的反对票，很可能只是9月大战的彩排。 一边，中期选举在即，特朗普急需一 ...