Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI was 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat for two consecutive months on a month-on-month basis, indicating a continuous easing of the downward pressure on industrial product prices. The prices in the midstream manufacturing industry improved, and the prices in industries such as coal and ferrous metals continued to rise; in the industries related to external demand, the prices of electronics and aircraft manufacturing maintained growth. Structurally, there were differentiation characteristics: on the one hand, the prices of new quality productivity industries such as photovoltaic equipment rebounded, and the prices of consumer upgrade products increased significantly; on the other hand, affected by the decline in international oil prices, the prices of domestic oil-related products weakened. Overall, the current recovery of PPI is mainly driven by the low-base effect and policy expectations, but the recovery of downstream demand is still uneven, and the subsequent trend of industrial product prices still needs to focus on the substantial improvement of the demand side [4]. - In September 2025, the year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for 5 consecutive months, and it returned to above 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. Food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the prices of major food items such as fresh vegetables and pork were still in the downward range; non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, among which the increases of industrial consumer goods such as gold jewelry and household appliances were obvious; service prices maintained stable growth. Overall, the continuous recovery of core CPI shows that domestic consumer demand is steadily recovering with policy support, but the drag of food prices still exists, and the improvement of CPI in the fourth quarter may be limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Events - On October 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, the CPI in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, and that in rural areas decreased by 0.5%; food prices decreased by 4.4%, and non-food prices increased by 0.7%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.8%, and service prices increased by 0.6%. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. - In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat on a month-on-month basis. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. From January to September, the average producer price index for industrial products decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [3]. 2. 9 - Month Inflation Decline Convergence - PPI - The decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year (with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month), and remained flat for two consecutive months on a month-on-month basis; the purchase price for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. - The price pressure in the midstream manufacturing industry eased. The prices in the midstream processing industry improved. The prices of coal mining and washing increased by 2.5% month-on-month, and the prices of coal processing increased by 3.8% month-on-month, both rising for two consecutive months. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing increased by 0.2% month-on-month; the prices of non-metallic mineral products decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. - Some improvements were seen in the external demand industries. Driven by the construction of a modern industrial system, the prices of electronic special material manufacturing increased by 1.2% year-on-year. In the field of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, the prices of aircraft manufacturing increased by 1.4% year-on-year. - The impact of international input was differentiated. The decline in international oil prices led to a 2.7% month-on-month decrease in domestic oil extraction prices and a 1.5% month-on-month decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing prices. - The new quality productivity industries maintained growth. The new driving forces for development grew steadily, and the prices of related industries rebounded year-on-year. The prices of photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing turned from a decline to an increase, with a growth rate of 0.8%; the prices of waste resource comprehensive utilization industries increased by 0.9% year-on-year. - Consumer demand continued to provide support. The demand for upgraded consumption continued to increase. The prices of arts and crafts and ceremonial supplies manufacturing increased by 14.7%, the prices of sports ball manufacturing increased by 4.0%, and the prices of nutritional food manufacturing increased by 1.8%. - Overall, the year-on-year recovery of PPI in the third quarter was mainly affected by the low-base effect and anti-involution market expectations. By industry, non-ferrous metal prices were relatively strong, while ferrous metal prices were relatively weak due to slow recovery of downstream demand and inventory accumulation; in September, international crude oil prices were weak due to geopolitical factors, and the ex-factory prices of related petrochemical products also declined. As the steady growth plans for various industries are gradually implemented and the effects of anti-involution policies are further manifested, the subsequent industrial product prices will follow the demand trend. Attention should be paid to whether there will be incremental policy promotion in the fourth quarter, and industrial product prices may maintain a weak pattern [9][10]. 3. 9 - Month Inflation Decline Convergence - CPI - CPI turned from flat to an increase on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed. In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month), and turned from flat to an increase of 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, expanding for the 5th consecutive month, and it returned to above 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. From January to September, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. - The year-on-year decline of food prices slightly expanded. Food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs decreased by 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively year-on-year; the prices of fresh fruits decreased by 4.2% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices increased by 0.7% in September, among which the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits all showed seasonal increases. - The increase of non-food prices expanded. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Among industrial consumer goods, the prices of gold jewelry and platinum jewelry increased by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively year-on-year; the prices of household appliances and household daily sundries increased by 5.5% and 3.2% respectively year-on-year. - Service consumption maintained stable growth. Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the prices of medical services and household services increased by 1.9% and 1.6% respectively year-on-year; affected by factors such as the end of the summer vacation and the misaligned Mid-Autumn Festival, the prices of airplane tickets and hotel accommodation decreased by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year. - The year-on-year decline of CPI in September narrowed marginally to -0.3%, mainly due to the carry-over effect. The continuous expansion of the core CPI increase and its return to above 1% indicate that domestic consumer demand continues to recover under the support of macro policies. In the short term, food prices continue to decline, and durable goods prices face downward pressure, so the improvement of CPI in the fourth quarter may be weak [26][27]. 4. Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for September 2025 - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, the CPI in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, and that in rural areas decreased by 0.5%; food prices decreased by 4.4%, and non-food prices increased by 0.7%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.8%, and service prices increased by 0.6%. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. In September, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the CPI in urban areas remained flat, and that in rural areas increased by 0.2%; food prices increased by 0.7%, and non-food prices decreased by 0.1%; consumer goods prices increased by 0.3%, and service prices decreased by 0.3%. - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI (consumer price index) to decrease by about 0.74 percentage points. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 13.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.35 percentage points; the prices of eggs decreased by 11.9%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.08 percentage points; the prices of livestock and meat decreased by 8.4%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.27 percentage points, among which the prices of pork decreased by 17.0%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.26 percentage points; the prices of fresh fruits decreased by 4.2%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.09 percentage points; the prices of grains decreased by 0.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.01 percentage points; the prices of aquatic products increased by 0.9%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.02 percentage points. The prices of the other seven major categories increased in six and decreased in one. Among them, the prices of other supplies and services, household supplies and services, and clothing increased by 9.9%, 2.2%, and 1.7% respectively, and the prices of medical care, education, culture, and entertainment, and housing increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.1% respectively; the prices of transportation and communication decreased by 2.0%. - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol increased by 0.5% on a month-on-month basis, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables increased by 6.1%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points; the prices of eggs increased by 2.7%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.02 percentage points; the prices of fresh fruits increased by 1.7%, affecting the CPI to increase by about 0.03 percentage points; the prices of aquatic products decreased by 1.8%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.04 percentage points; the prices of pork decreased by 0.7%, affecting the CPI to decrease by about 0.01 percentage points. The prices of the other seven major categories increased in four, remained flat in one, and decreased in two. Among them, the prices of other supplies and services and clothing increased by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively, and the prices of household supplies and services and medical care increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively; the prices of housing remained flat; the prices of transportation and communication and education, culture, and entertainment decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. - In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat on a month-on-month basis. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increasing by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. From January to September, the average producer price index for industrial products decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2%. - In September, among the producer prices for industrial products, the prices of means of production decreased by 2.4%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 1.81 percentage points. Among them, the prices of the mining industry decreased by 9.0%, the prices of the raw material industry decreased by 2.9%, and the prices of the processing industry decreased by 1.7%. The prices of means of subsistence decreased by 1.7%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 0.45 percentage points. Among them, the prices of food decreased by 1.7%, the prices of clothing decreased by 0.3%, the prices of general daily necessities increased by 0.7%, and the prices of durable consumer goods decreased by 3.9%. - Among the purchase prices for industrial producers, the prices of fuel and power decreased by 8.1%, the prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 5.5%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 5.4%, the prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 4.5%, the prices of ferrous metal materials decreased by 2.9%, the prices of textile raw materials decreased by 1.7%; the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 6.6%. - In September, among the producer prices for industrial products, the prices of means of production remained flat. Among them, the prices of the mining industry increased by 1.2%, the prices of the raw material industry remained flat, and the prices of the processing industry decreased by 0.1%. The prices of means of subsistence decreased by 0.2%, affecting the total level of producer prices for industrial products to decrease by about 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the prices of food decreased by 0.1%, the prices of clothing remained flat, the prices of general daily necessities increased by 0.2%, and the prices of durable consumer goods decreased by 0.4%. - Among the purchase prices for industrial producers, the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 1.2%, the prices of fuel and power increased by 0.5%, the prices of ferrous metal materials increased by 0.4%; the prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 0.6%, the prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 0.4%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 0.2%, the prices of textile raw materials decreased by 0.1% [41][43][45]. 5. National Bureau of Statistics Urban Department Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for September 2025 - In September, the consumer market generally operated smoothly. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the 5th consecutive month. The in-depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market and the continuous optimization of the market competition order led to the producer price index (PPI) for industrial products remaining flat on a month-on-month basis; it decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. - CPI turned from flat to an increase on a month-on-month basis, and the core CPI year-on-year increase rebounded to 1%. CPI increased on a month-on-month basis, turning from flat to an increase of 0.1%. Among them, food prices increased by 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting CPI to increase by about 0.13 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. Among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, mutton, and beef all showed seasonal increases, with the increase ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%; the supply of pork and aquatic products was sufficient, and the prices decreased by 0.7% and 1.8% respectively. The prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy increased by 0.5%, affecting CPI to increase by about 0.12 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. Among them, affected by the increase in international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 6.5%; with the new autumn clothing season, clothing prices increased by 0.8%; the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, household appliances, and household daily sundries increased by 0

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权益反弹，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 国债期货日报 | 2025-10-16 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告。（2） 通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强，企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13. ...

澳洲联储方面传递出不同信号：助理总裁肯特表示指标利率目前处于"中性区间"，而联储主席布洛克则 对第三季度通胀可能升温保持警惕。 澳元/美元技术分析 澳元兑美元汇率日内下跌一度0.49%，至0.6479，对政策敏感的三年期政府债券收益率下跌9个基点。数 据显示，澳大利亚9月失业率升至4.5%，为2021年11月以来新高，高于路调查预估的4.3%；当月就业岗 位增加1.49万个，亦低于预估的2万个增长。 受美联储降息预期升温及贸易摩擦加剧的双重影响，美元指数整体承压。市场将继续关注澳美两国货币 政策动向及经济数据表现。 技术面显示，澳元对美元汇率在小时图上已跌破布林带下轨，呈现短线超卖状态。当前澳元走势支撑位 见于0.6440和0.6415，阻力位见于0.6520和0.6530。 周四（10月16日）亚市早盘，受澳大利亚最新就业数据不及预期影响，澳元/美元短线走跌，最新澳元 兑美元汇率报0.6496，跌幅0.20%，澳大利亚9月季调后失业率录得4.5%，为2021年11月以来新高。 澳大利亚失业率上升超过预期，且新增就业岗位减少，表明劳动力市场正在松动，也为澳大利亚央行最 早下个月恢复降息提供数据支撑。澳大利亚统 ...

不过他也直言，当前市场纳斯达克指数的上涨高度依赖少数几只人工智能龙头股，这种结构性失衡可能放大市场波动。也正因 此，他透露自己目前并未持有任何股票多头仓位，选择等待一到两周再做决策。 知名对冲基金经理保罗・都铎・琼斯明确指出，在市场普遍预期利率下行的背景下，纳斯达克综合指数有望在今年年底前实现 上涨。 作为拥有丰富实战经验的亿万富翁投资者，琼斯认为，美国股市能否在"最后两个月"迎来大幅上涨，关键取决于大型科技公司 即将公布的财报表现，以及贸易冲突能否在10月底前取得实质性解决。如果这两个条件均能满足，科技股的盈利支撑将得到验 证，市场对贸易不确定性的担忧也会缓解，双重利好下股市上涨动力将显著增强。 琼斯称10月底至11月初是判断后续行情的"关键转折点"。这一时间段既是科技公司财报集中披露的尾声，也是贸易冲突解决窗 口期的关键节点，纳斯达克指数在此期间的表现将直接决定年底行情走向。如果指数能保持坚挺，意味着市场已消化潜在风 险，后续有望开启强劲的年底上涨行情。 琼斯预测美联储当前4%-4.25%的基准利率区间，将在明年此时降至2.5%左右。，当前全球经济已进入"实物约束"时代，各国政 府不得不努力维持低利率，因 ...

5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具即将落地；债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】 9 月 29 日，资金面整体平稳均衡，但跨季资金价格较高；债市延续弱势；转债 市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论拟提请二十届四中全会审议的文件】中共中央政治局 9 月 29 日召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问题。中共中央总书记 习近平主持会议。会议决定，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。中共中央政治局听取了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个 五年规划的建议》稿在党内外一定范围征求意见的情况报告，决定根据这次会议讨论的意见进 行修改后将文件稿提请二十届四中全会审议。 【5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具即将落地】今年 4 月召开的中央政治局会议提出，设立新型 政策性金融工具。9 月 29 日，国家发改委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超在月度新闻发 布会上透露，新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 9 月 CPI 同比降 0.3%，API 美国原油库存明显 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-10-16 宏观策略（股指期货） 9 月 CPI 同比降 0.3%，PPI 同比降 2.3% 国内通胀分化，CPI 回落，PPI 回升，国内物价形势边际修复。 金融数据看，私人部门信贷需求仍然偏弱。其中非银存款同比 少增，需要注意存款搬家或有减速。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储褐皮书：经济活动变化不大 就业保持稳定 综 美国政府关门期间裁减 1 万名政府职位，这意味着劳动力市场进 一步走弱，美元指数下行。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 9 月 CPI 增速录得-0.3%，前值为-0.4% 报 贸易形势对债市整体是中性偏多的，多单可继续持有。不过驱 动债市大幅走强的因素尚未出现，追多需谨慎。 农产品（豆粕） NOPA 压榨数据远超市场预期 美国政府仍然停摆，NOPA 9 月压榨月报好于市场预期。巴西 CNF 升贴水持稳，我国进口大豆成本变动不大。 有色金属（镍） DKFT2025 年第三季度镍矿石产量达 207 万吨 矿价偏强运行，供应存在扰动 能源化工（原油） 未获 ...