Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to lead to a sustained sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year bonds, as historical patterns suggest similar outcomes in past conflicts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Since the escalation of tensions last Friday, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds has increased by 9 basis points, driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous conflicts, such as the direct attack by Iran in April 2024 and the renewed conflict in October last year, U.S. Treasury yields also rose sharply and remained elevated for about 30 days [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market volatility is prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, which is contributing to the increase in oil prices and may further push up the 10-year Treasury yields [1] - Current geopolitical tensions, combined with ongoing trade wars initiated by former President Trump, are exacerbating inflation worries and worsening the U.S. debt situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As tensions in the Middle East impact energy prices, market traders may continue to demand higher risk premiums, potentially leading to further increases in Treasury yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - German and US government bonds are likely to continue lacking clear direction due to inflation concerns and risk aversion amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - Eurozone government bond yields have generally increased slightly, with the rise in yields being consistent with that of US and Japanese government bonds [1] - The 10-year German government bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 2.544% [1] - The 10-year US government bond yield increased by 1 basis point, currently trading at 4.433% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The research department of Deutsche Bank, led by Rainer Gunterman, indicates that the current market sentiment is influenced by inflation worries and geopolitical tensions [1] - Japanese government bonds are underperforming compared to Eurozone and US bonds [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After disturbances, index futures still have room for recovery [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On June 14, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF fell 0.65%, IH fell 0.63%, IC fell 0.83%, and IM fell 1.11% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 16,731 lots, IH by 6,001 lots, IC by 19,977 lots, and IM by 39,034 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 14,756 lots, IH by 5,232 lots, IC by 4,434 lots, and IM by 10,451 lots [1][2] 2. Basis Analysis - Data on the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented through charts, showing changes over time [4] 3. Position Changes of the Top 20 Members in Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long - positions and short - positions of the top 20 members in different contracts (IF2506, IF2507, etc.) showed various changes. For example, in IF2506, the increase in long - positions was 3,567 and the net change in long - positions was 14,111, while the increase in short - positions was 1,902 and the net change in short - positions was 11,933 [5] - Similar position change data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts, with some data not disclosed [5] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is 1. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - Important drivers include the Israeli attack on Iran, which led to a global stock market decline. The S&P fell more than 1.1%, the Dow fell nearly 1.8%. In China, the social financing increment in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, and other economic data were also released [6] 5. Policy and Market Conditions - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to optimize drug and consumable procurement and promoted the construction of "good houses." The three major A - share indices declined unilaterally, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1.13%, and over 4,400 stocks falling [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].

以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点。由于担心原油供应减少，原油价格飙涨、创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。避险情 绪则助推黄金收盘创新高，不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 受以色列对伊朗发动袭击影响，美股开盘低开，随着冲突加剧，标普跌回6000点下方、道指跌近1.8%： 亚太时段，据央视新闻，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以伊冲突爆发在全球市场引发巨震，WTI原油一度暴涨超13%后回落，黄金等避险资 产明显拉升，全球股市集体下挫。 欧股盘中，央视报道，以色列称伊朗方面向以色列发射了100多架无人机。冲突加剧一度推动10年期美债收益率下行至4.31%。不过油价引发的通胀担忧压 制避险买盘，美债收益率随后悉数转涨，2年期和10年期美债收益率均上行超4个基点。 美股早盘，据央视，以色列袭击伊朗导致多国关闭领空，全球多地航空股下跌。标准普尔1500航空公司指数下跌近4%，至5月7日以来的最低水平。美国航 空、美联航跌超5%。由于原油价格飙涨，能源、油气和光伏板块提振上行，其中油气板块涨近2.7%。 周五美股三大股指下跌。标普500指数跌破6000 ...

一觉醒来，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点， 标普指数跌回6000点下方， 德法意股指 收跌超1%， 英国富时100指数收跌0.39%。本周德国股指跌超 3.2%，丹麦股指累涨4.7% 。 欧元区蓝筹股指数本周累跌约2.6%。 由于担心原油供应减少， 原油价格一度飙涨13%， 收涨超7% 创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 避险情绪则助推 黄金收盘创新高， 涨逾1.4% 。 不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 发生了什么？ 以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗发起报复行动， 密集发射上百枚导弹 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 伊朗周五晚向以色列发射了"数百 枚"导弹。 此前据新华社报道，13日，哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 声明中，韦拉亚提强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面 对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表现。 声明中，韦拉亚提表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 周 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

金老虎：川普岂是池中物，一加关税便化龙 沉浸太长时间，内心总是憋着一种气，路走太多了，总是去用经验去判断认定一件事情，高山流水觅知 音，低谷徘徊知真心，你总是做梦去想象怎么做好一段行情，规划每天盈利的计划，但是现实总是盈利 跑的快，亏损扛的时间长，迷茫的思维是循规蹈矩的磨盘，反复去做一件事情不去反思和思考，隔阂还 有差距会成为一个人难以逾越的城墙； 1：通胀担忧：尽管 5 月 21 日路透调查显示美国 2025 年 CPI 预期下调至 3.1%，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。市场对长期通胀压力的担忧促使市场将黄金作为抗通胀资产配置，尤其是在关税政策可能推高 物价的背景下； 黄金思路回顾及下周策略预测 本周金价整体走了连阳攀升的上升形态，从3202-3365；一周的时间也是波动了163美金，想当于每天平 均波动差不多33美金；本周金价这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 1：穆迪下调美国信用评级：5 月 19 日，国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 AAA 下调至 AA1， 这一事件直接冲击市场信心。评级下调反映出对美国债务和赤字问题的担忧，导致市场风险偏好下降， 转而寻求黄金作为避险资产。当日黄金价格因避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking through $3,280 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.6% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Gold Futures main contract rose by more than 1.8% [3]. - Gold mining stocks in the U.S. saw significant gains, including Harmony Gold, Gold Resources, and Kinross Gold [5]. - COMEX silver also experienced an increase, with a daily rise of 1.4% [7]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumption of gold and silver jewelry remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% in April [9]. - The average closing price for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 765.77 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [9]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations - Since May 19, spot gold has seen an upward trend after a significant drop earlier in the month, where it fell approximately $72 per ounce in a single day [10]. - Recent geopolitical and economic developments, including a joint statement from U.S. and Chinese trade officials, have influenced market risk appetite, putting pressure on gold prices [13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as declining U.S. dollar credibility, the onset of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued central bank purchases of gold [14].

Report on the Precious Metals Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term remains in a high - level oscillation. The resistance levels for London gold are 3300, with strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area; support levels are 3200, 3100, and strong support in the 2950 - 3000 area. For London silver, support is in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance is at 33.3 and 33.7, and if it breaks through, it could reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but the market may remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals generally saw gold decline and silver oscillate. London gold dropped to around 3120, the lowest since April 10. The Sino - US joint communique on May 12 after the Geneva economic and trade high - level talks boosted market risk appetite, pressuring gold. Since late April, global gold ETFs have shown signs of outflow due to factors such as trade and geopolitical conflicts and the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell's statement on re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework and the "new Fed newswire" hinting at an interest - rate framework adjustment may lead to higher long - term interest rates. The slightly lower - than - expected US CPI on Tuesday alleviated inflation concerns and slightly improved the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, which may increase the volatility of the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets on Monday and be beneficial for gold. China reduced its US debt holdings by 18.9 billion US dollars to 765.4 billion US dollars in March, becoming the third - largest US debt holder [2] 3.2 Capital and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 19.21 tons to 918.73 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 106.06 tons to 13914.9 tons [3] - **Short - term Fund Holdings**: According to the CFTC report as of May 13, the non - commercial net long positions of gold decreased by 1288 to 161209, with long positions increasing by 746 and short positions increasing by 2034. The non - commercial net long positions of silver decreased by 1498 to 47754, with long positions decreasing by 2391 and short positions decreasing by 893 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7.26 tons to 1210.6 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 44.1 tons to 15619 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 47.44 tons to 887 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 5.24 tons to 1574.3 tons [3] 3.3 Upcoming Events - This week's economic data is relatively light, with attention on the US S&P PMI data. There are multiple speeches by Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Harker, and Daly. The G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting from May 12 - 22 should also be monitored [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract rose 1.62% to 751.8 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD rose 1.58% to 746.98 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract fell 1.19% to 3205.3 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver main contract rose 1.16% to 8101 yuan/kilogram, SGX silver TD rose 1.19% to 8062 yuan/kilogram, CME silver main contract fell 1.1% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce [5] - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, CME gold inventory was 1210.5758 tons, SHFE gold position was 211481 lots. SHFE silver inventory was 887.018 tons, CME silver inventory was 15619.051 tons, SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, SHFE silver position was 325306 lots [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Data**: The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 100.983, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42654.74 points, WTI crude - oil spot rose 1.41% to 62.49 US dollars/barrel, LmeS copper 03 fell 1.67% to 9440 US dollars/ton, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.45% to 4.43%, and the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread fell 8.16% to 0.45% [19]