Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

金老虎：川普岂是池中物，一加关税便化龙 沉浸太长时间，内心总是憋着一种气，路走太多了，总是去用经验去判断认定一件事情，高山流水觅知 音，低谷徘徊知真心，你总是做梦去想象怎么做好一段行情，规划每天盈利的计划，但是现实总是盈利 跑的快，亏损扛的时间长，迷茫的思维是循规蹈矩的磨盘，反复去做一件事情不去反思和思考，隔阂还 有差距会成为一个人难以逾越的城墙； 1：通胀担忧：尽管 5 月 21 日路透调查显示美国 2025 年 CPI 预期下调至 3.1%，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。市场对长期通胀压力的担忧促使市场将黄金作为抗通胀资产配置，尤其是在关税政策可能推高 物价的背景下； 黄金思路回顾及下周策略预测 本周金价整体走了连阳攀升的上升形态，从3202-3365；一周的时间也是波动了163美金，想当于每天平 均波动差不多33美金；本周金价这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 1：穆迪下调美国信用评级：5 月 19 日，国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 AAA 下调至 AA1， 这一事件直接冲击市场信心。评级下调反映出对美国债务和赤字问题的担忧，导致市场风险偏好下降， 转而寻求黄金作为避险资产。当日黄金价格因避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking through $3,280 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.6% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Gold Futures main contract rose by more than 1.8% [3]. - Gold mining stocks in the U.S. saw significant gains, including Harmony Gold, Gold Resources, and Kinross Gold [5]. - COMEX silver also experienced an increase, with a daily rise of 1.4% [7]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumption of gold and silver jewelry remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 25.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% in April [9]. - The average closing price for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 765.77 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [9]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations - Since May 19, spot gold has seen an upward trend after a significant drop earlier in the month, where it fell approximately $72 per ounce in a single day [10]. - Recent geopolitical and economic developments, including a joint statement from U.S. and Chinese trade officials, have influenced market risk appetite, putting pressure on gold prices [13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as declining U.S. dollar credibility, the onset of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued central bank purchases of gold [14].

Report on the Precious Metals Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term remains in a high - level oscillation. The resistance levels for London gold are 3300, with strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area; support levels are 3200, 3100, and strong support in the 2950 - 3000 area. For London silver, support is in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance is at 33.3 and 33.7, and if it breaks through, it could reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but the market may remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals generally saw gold decline and silver oscillate. London gold dropped to around 3120, the lowest since April 10. The Sino - US joint communique on May 12 after the Geneva economic and trade high - level talks boosted market risk appetite, pressuring gold. Since late April, global gold ETFs have shown signs of outflow due to factors such as trade and geopolitical conflicts and the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell's statement on re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework and the "new Fed newswire" hinting at an interest - rate framework adjustment may lead to higher long - term interest rates. The slightly lower - than - expected US CPI on Tuesday alleviated inflation concerns and slightly improved the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, which may increase the volatility of the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets on Monday and be beneficial for gold. China reduced its US debt holdings by 18.9 billion US dollars to 765.4 billion US dollars in March, becoming the third - largest US debt holder [2] 3.2 Capital and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 19.21 tons to 918.73 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 106.06 tons to 13914.9 tons [3] - **Short - term Fund Holdings**: According to the CFTC report as of May 13, the non - commercial net long positions of gold decreased by 1288 to 161209, with long positions increasing by 746 and short positions increasing by 2034. The non - commercial net long positions of silver decreased by 1498 to 47754, with long positions decreasing by 2391 and short positions decreasing by 893 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7.26 tons to 1210.6 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 44.1 tons to 15619 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 47.44 tons to 887 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 5.24 tons to 1574.3 tons [3] 3.3 Upcoming Events - This week's economic data is relatively light, with attention on the US S&P PMI data. There are multiple speeches by Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Harker, and Daly. The G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting from May 12 - 22 should also be monitored [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract rose 1.62% to 751.8 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD rose 1.58% to 746.98 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract fell 1.19% to 3205.3 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver main contract rose 1.16% to 8101 yuan/kilogram, SGX silver TD rose 1.19% to 8062 yuan/kilogram, CME silver main contract fell 1.1% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce [5] - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, CME gold inventory was 1210.5758 tons, SHFE gold position was 211481 lots. SHFE silver inventory was 887.018 tons, CME silver inventory was 15619.051 tons, SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, SHFE silver position was 325306 lots [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Data**: The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 100.983, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42654.74 points, WTI crude - oil spot rose 1.41% to 62.49 US dollars/barrel, LmeS copper 03 fell 1.67% to 9440 US dollars/ton, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.45% to 4.43%, and the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread fell 8.16% to 0.45% [19]

国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模为32272亿美元，较1月末上升 182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。 中国央行连续第四个月增持黄金，环比增长0.22%。2月外汇储备规模上升。 3月7日周五，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 中国2月末黄金储备7361万盎司，1月末黄金储备为7345 万盎司，环比增长了0.22%。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年2月，受主要经济体宏观政策和经济数据、主要央行货币政策预期等因素 影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外 汇储备规模上升。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 中信建投 此前表示，短期来看，关税明朗之前，黄金期现溢价波动或难完全平稳，跨市套利行或仍对 金价有支撑；中期来看，助推2024年金价的需求因素（央行购金持续强劲，亚洲私人部门黄金投资需求 扩容）在2025年持续性减弱，故2025年金价或从顺风期走向震荡期。 高盛 认为，通胀担忧和财政风险 ...