钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/5/30 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122524 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资资询号 Z0020955 张磊 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求略有回暖,预期仍偏悲观 需求:螺纹表需248.68万吨（+1.55）,同比-0.49%;热卷表需326.93万吨（+13.87）,同比3.27%;五大材表需 913.79 万吨（+9.23）,同比1.02%。 供给:螺纹产量225.51万吨（-5.97）,同比-2.58%;热卷产量319.55万吨（+13.87）,同比4.54%;五大材产量880.85万吨（+8.41）,同比-0.96%。 库存: 螺纹库存581.05万吨（-23.17）,同比-3.83%; 热卷库存332.81万吨（-7.38）,同比-2.17%;五大材库存1365.6万吨（-32.94）,同比-2.36%。 -2025 - 2024 - 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the steel industry has weakened on a month - on - month basis, and steel prices are under downward pressure. The market is affected by factors such as overseas tariff threats and domestic policy vacuums, with a focus on the changes in the industrial supply - demand structure. The destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down, and the prices of raw materials have declined, dragging down the prices of finished products [3]. - The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also under downward pressure. The supply of iron ore has a potential increase, while demand is weakening. For coking coal and coke, the market is weak due to factors such as reduced mine开工率, low transaction rates, and the expectation of a second price cut for coke [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As the domestic macro - policy entered a vacuum period, the market focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The five major steel products continued to destock, but the destocking slowed down. With the approaching of the rainy season, the market was hesitant. After the first price cut of coke, the cost reduction further dragged down the steel price [9]. - The prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke in the spot and futures markets generally showed a downward trend, and there were also corresponding changes in positions, basis, spreads, and inventories [10]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National weekly production of rebar increased to 226.53 tons (month - on - month +1.34%, year - on - year - 3.02%), and that of hot - rolled coil decreased to 311.98 tons (month - on - month - 2.62%, year - on - year - 3.91%). The production of both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly to 83.69% (month - on - month - 0.55%, year - on - year +2.69%), while the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.18% (month - on - month +2.63%, year - on - year +5.15%) [16][18][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit shrank to +88 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 14.56%, year - on - year - 46.99%), and hot - rolled coil profit improved on a month - on - month basis to +40 yuan/ton (week - on - week +29.03%, year - on - year - 54.55%) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased to 247.13 tons (month - on - month - 5.06%, year - on - year - 1.11%), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased to 313.06 tons (month - on - month - 4.99%, year - on - year - 4.51%). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.53 tons (month - on - month - 13.33%, year - on - year - 32.27%) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased to 604.22 tons (month - on - month - 2.52%, year - on - year - 22.94%), with the decline slowing down, the factory inventory slightly increasing, and the social inventory continuing to decline. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased to 340.19 tons (month - on - month - 2.12%, year - on - year - 17.66%), with both factory and social inventories decreasing [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% month - on - month and 0.19% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.20% month - on - month and 40.61% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month but up 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 2729.2 tons (month - on - month +0.85%, year - on - year - 0.75%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased to 2151.3 tons (month - on - month - 5.28%, year - on - year - 11.25%). The iron ore price index was 99.58 (month - on - month - 2.57%, year - on - year - 16.86%) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 243.6 tons (month - on - month - 1.17 tons, year - on - year +6.8 tons), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports increased to 327.09 tons (month - on - month +0.99%, year - on - year +12.13%). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.57 days (month - on - month - 0.03%, year - on - year - 8.34%) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased to 13987.83 tons (month - on - month - 1.26%, year - on - year - 5.87%), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 8925.48 tons (month - on - month - 0.40%, year - on - year - 4.43%). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (month - on - month - 3.57%, year - on - year +2.55%) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 86.3% (month - on - month - 3.32%, year - on - year - 1.19%), the operating rate of coal washing plants increased to 62.36% (month - on - month +0.45%, year - on - year - 8.71%), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased to 15.93 tons (month - on - month +2.97%, year - on - year - 10.20%) [77]. - **Transaction Rate**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.01% (week - on - week +17.01%, year - on - year - 39%), and the weekly transaction rate was 59.98% (week - on - week - 2.09%, year - on - year +7.74%) [79]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 15 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 22 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 49 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.18% (month - on - month - 0.07%, year - on - year +3.10%). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 75.87% [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 737.89 tons (month - on - month - 1.93%, year - on - year - 3.85%), the steel mill coking coal inventory increased to 798.58 tons (month - on - month +0.96%, year - on - year +6.15%), and the coking coal port inventory decreased to 301.56 tons (month - on - month - 1.48%, year - on - year +31.40%) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 73.1 tons (month - on - month +11.70%, year - on - year +58.19%), the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased to 660.59 tons (month - on - month - 0.48%, year - on - year +18.26%), and the coke port inventory decreased to 223.10 tons (month - on - month - 0.90%, year - on - year +5.09%) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of coking coal is weakening, and the first price cut of coke has been implemented. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 720 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1150 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 50 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 650 yuan/ton) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has slightly widened. The 9 - 01 spread of iron ore has slightly shrunk, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has fluctuated within a narrow range [105][111].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal: Sideways to Weak [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy [8] Group 2: Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, and the black market is oscillating weakly. The macro - expectation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Iron ore market sentiment is cautious, and ore prices are oscillating. Coking coal and coke prices are showing different trends, with coking coal being sideways to weak and coke being sideways. Thermal coal port inventory is continuously accumulating, and pit - mouth coal prices are weakly operating [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3207 yuan/ton. The futures market trading was average, and the spot market overall transaction was generally weak, with steel prices continuously falling [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good long - process profits, the building materials output remained stable. With the arrival of the main flood season in the southern region, building materials consumption will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Exports were resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, but high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports [1] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated weakly. As of the close, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fell 0.89%. The spot price index of iron ore ports decreased, and the market trading sentiment was average. The global iron ore shipment volume this period increased significantly compared with last week, with a total global shipment of 3348 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 2271 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports and forward spot transactions both increased month - on - month [3] - Comprehensive View: The iron ore shipment recovered this period. The molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, but when the reality turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Market Analysis: The trading of coking coal was sluggish, and the online auction failure rate was high. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to fall with the decline of the futures market and the implementation of coke price cuts [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the decline of coal prices, the cost - effectiveness of domestic coal and Mongolian coal became prominent, and supply increased. Against the background of high molten iron output, coking coal demand remained resilient, and inventory remained stable at a high level. In the short term, the supply - demand of coking coal weakened, and prices continued to fall due to the implementation of the first - round coke price cut, pessimistic expectations, and the off - season of thermal coal [6] - Strategy: Sideways to Weak [7] Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market oscillated downward. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a decline of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [5] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, coke supply is relatively stable. High molten iron output ensures the consumption intensity of coke, and inventory remains at a medium - high level. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited. In the short term, the decline of coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cut have a downward drag on coke prices [6] - Strategy: Sideways [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the decline of port prices slowed down, and pit - mouth coal prices oscillated weakly. The market sentiment slightly improved. The number of coal - pulling trucks in a few coal mines increased, and inventory pressure eased, with prices temporarily stable. However, some terminals and large station customers were still pressing prices, and most traders were still pessimistic and cautious. In the port market, the situation remained weak, and port inventory was at a high level. With the decline of power plant daily consumption in the off - season, downstream inventory continued to accumulate. The imported coal market was operating weakly and steadily. With the continuous decline of domestic prices, the bid price of imported coal continued to fall, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [8] - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and prices lack obvious support with the warming weather. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - Strategy: None [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week's view: From a supply - demand perspective, finished steel products would face pressure starting in May, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production. The probability of molten iron output peaking was high. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts would require further compression of steel mill profits. The unilateral driving force for finished steel products might continue downward, but the absolute price was not low, and the risk of chasing short positions was relatively large. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's market analysis: The China - US tariff agreement exceeded market expectations, and the macro - environment improved, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices this week [5]. - This week's view: April's social financing data showed weak credit, and there was no optimistic outlook for steel demand. However, in the short term, May was still the traditional peak demand season. After the China - US agreement, there were expectations of marginal improvement in short - term exports. The supply - demand data for steel was still healthy, with both rebar and hot - rolled coils reducing inventory. Steel mills currently had no pressure to cut production, and prices were expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Finished steel faced pressure in May, molten iron output might peak. Without administrative restrictions, production cuts depended on profit compression. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's analysis: China - US tariff agreement improved the macro - environment and led to a slight rebound in steel prices [5]. - This week's view: Weak April credit data, short - term demand support from the peak season and export expectations. Healthy supply - demand, inventory reduction, and expected price fluctuations [5]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - China - US tariff agreement: The agreement cancelled tariffs imposed since April, and there was a significant short - term increase in Chinese containers exported to the US. Main steel - related downstream products to the US included steel products, railway and track devices, and electromechanical products [7]. - April credit data: Resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.35 billion yuan, indicating a marginal weakening of real - estate sales in April. Enterprise loans increased by 61 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 25 billion yuan [9]. - Demand: Rebar's weekly apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463,900 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [10][11]. - Supply: The daily average molten iron output was 2447,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons. The weekly output of five major steel products was 8.6835 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 211,700 tons. Rebar's weekly output was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Rebar's total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons. Hot - rolled coil's total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [15]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts - Spot prices: Included historical data charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices from 2021 - 2025, as well as price, basis, and spread data for different dates in May 2025 [17][18]. - Spot profits: Included data charts of converter rebar and hot - rolled coil spot virtual profits and East China rebar flat - electricity profits from 2021 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills on May 16, 2025, was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [29]. - Rebar production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, rebar production was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. The long - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 54.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%, and the short - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 29.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [33][35]. - Hot - rolled coil production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil production was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15% [38]. - Rebar demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, rebar's apparent demand was 260,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,390 tons. The total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons [41]. - Hot - rolled coil demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil's apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [43].

Group 1: Basic Information - The report is a daily report on ferrous metals data, published by Guomao Futures on May 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Far - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2601: Closing price 3150 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan (0.67%) [2] - HC2601: Closing price 3272 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (0.49%) [2] - I2601: Closing price 698 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (1.01%) [2] - J2601: Closing price 1498.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.20%) [2] - JM2601: Closing price 899 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.73%) [2] Near - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2510: Closing price 3118 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.39%) [2] - HC2510: Closing price 3260 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.46%) [2] - I2509: Closing price 736.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan (1.17%) [2] - J2509: Closing price 1472 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.44%) [2] - JM2509: Closing price 883 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.34%) [2] Cross - month Spreads (May 15) - RB2510 - 2601: - 32 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - HC2510 - 2601: - 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - I2509 - 2601: 38.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - J2509 - 2601: - 26.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [2] - JM2509 - 2601: - 16 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [2] Spreads/Ratios/Profits (May 15) - Coil - rebar spread: 142 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Rebar - ore ratio: 4.23, down 0.01 [2] - Coal - coke ratio: 1.67, up 0.01 [2] - Rebar disk profit: - 109.03 yuan/ton, down 3.18 yuan [2] - Coking disk profit: 297.61 yuan/ton, up 5.3 yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market May 15 Prices and Changes - Shanghai rebar: 3220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Tianjin rebar: 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou rebar: 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan billet: 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Platts index: 102.2, down 0.6 [2] - Shanghai hot - rolled coil: 3280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Billet - product spread: 240 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Rizhao Port: PB ore: 780 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Super special powder: 645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Another ore: 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Ganqimao Port: Coking coal: 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Qingdao Port: Quasi - first - grade coke: 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Basis (May 15) - HC main contract: 20 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] - RB main contract: 102 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2] - I main contract: 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - J main contract: 186.66 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - JM main contract: 117 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan [2] Group 4: Industry Analysis Steel - Weekly steel data rebounded but did not exceed the normal range. Inventory and apparent demand data improved, and the market returned to normal, but was not stronger than the historical average. Spot trading volume was weak. The market sentiment may drive the futures price to fill the gap in early April, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, with a potential price decline risk [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and coking coal auction prices continue to fall. The black chain index touched the 20 - day line. Macro factors may affect the market sentiment. The "rush to export" during the 90 - day tariff suspension period may not significantly boost steel demand. The coal - coke market remains weak, and the high - short strategy is recommended. Consider the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [5] Ferroalloys - In the silicon - iron market, some Ningxia manufacturers have reduced production, creating a supply - demand gap and driving the futures price to rebound. Manganese - silicon production cuts have expanded, and the market may see a slowdown in the short - term rebound. Hebei Iron and Steel's tender prices are low [7] Iron Ore - The rebound driven by improved macro sentiment may provide a good cost basis. The comprehensive tariff is still high. High pig - iron production is expected to continue in May, and the port inventory will fluctuate slightly. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel prices may be weaker than iron - ore prices [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Steel: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. Choose hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in the spot - futures market, and conduct hedging and inventory management. For arbitrage, roll at high prices [9] - Coking Coal and Coke: Short on the single - side market. Pay attention to the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [9] - Ferroalloys: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9] - Iron Ore: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Report Title - Macro atmosphere rebounds, steel prices rebound from lows - Weekly Report 20250512 [1] Core Views - The implementation of the "package of financial policies" by the State Council Information Office and the substantial progress in the China - US talks have boosted market confidence, and the macro atmosphere has improved. After the holiday, affected by factors, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased. It is expected that the demand will improve on a low - base basis in the week after the holiday, and steel prices will be supported at low levels and show a phased rebound [3]. - The supply of iron ore shows a phased contraction, and the iron ore supply - demand structure has improved, which, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere, leads to a phased rebound of the black series after over - decline. The main iron ore contract should pay attention to the pressure around 730 - 750 [4]. - After the holiday, the overall supply of coking coal remains in a loose pattern, and the online auction turnover rate is still low. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, but the second - round price increase of coke has been shelved. With the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, it is stable in the short - term at low levels and should be treated with an oscillatory view [5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the holiday, with the implementation of macro - policy expectations, the market returned to the supply - demand fundamentals. Affected by the holiday, the demand for the five major steel products declined significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, the market pessimism rose, the futures prices fell significantly, the spot prices decreased synchronously, and the basis widened [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 223.53 tons (down 4.22% month - on - month and 3.07% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 320.38 tons (up 0.34% month - on - month and down 1.46% year - on - year). The production of both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar decreased [15][17][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast - furnace operating rate remained stable at 84.62% (up 0.34 month - on - month and 4.99% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 72.73% (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 13.32% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils shrank month - on - month. The rebar profit was + 90 yuan/ton (down 29.69% week - on - week and 24.37% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil profit was + 30 yuan/ton (down 39.47 week - on - week and 58.93% year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 213.9 tons (down 26.67% month - on - month and 26.32% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 309.53 tons (down 6.97% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year). The demand for rebar declined significantly, and the demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 653.63 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year), with the factory inventory increasing and the social inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 365.12 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and down 13.37% year - on - year), with the factory inventory slightly decreasing and the social inventory increasing [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 18.97% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 12.36% month - on - month and 58.37% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% [46][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 97.82 (up 0.64% month - on - month and down 15.95% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2422.5 tons (down 4.64% month - on - month and 0.95% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2354.6 tons (down 3.88% month - on - month and up 9.70% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily pig - iron output was 245.64 tons (up 0.22 tons month - on - month and 6.39 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.21 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month and up 5.95% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.48 days (down 3.94% month - on - month and 9.60% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14238.71 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and 3.83% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8958.98 tons (down 4.03% month - on - month and 3.91% year - on - year) [66][71]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 89.92% (up 0.20% month - on - month and 3.26% year - on - year), the coal - washing plant operating rate was 62.42% (down 0.87% month - on - month and 2.62% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 13.37 tons (up 63.10% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [73][77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises was + 1 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month and 62 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.05% (down 0.50% month - on - month and up 4.29% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 775.13 tons (down 4.33% month - on - month and up 7.69% year - on - year), the steel - mill coking coal inventory was 787.41 tons (up 0.36 month - on - month and 6.33% year - on - year), and the port coking coal inventory was 297.81 tons (down 4.48% month - on - month and up 30.91% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 65.09 tons (down 2.94% month - on - month and up 43.53% year - on - year), the steel - mill coke inventory was 671.03 tons (down 0.62% month - on - month and up 20.53% year - on - year), and the port coke inventory was 229.08 tons (down 3.80% month - on - month and up 2.97% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week and 780 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][103]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread also widened. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread widened in the short - term [105][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].

4月23日盘中，螺纹钢期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至3146.00元。截止收盘，螺纹钢主力合约报 3137.00元，涨幅1.46%。 南华期货（603093） 螺纹10合约可关注3150-3200附近压力位 国都期货：螺纹钢3000-3150区间震荡思路对待 五大钢材品种供应872.71万吨，周环比增加1.65万吨，增幅0.2%；总库存1584.68万吨，周环比降75.93 万吨，降幅4.6%；周消费量为948.64万吨，环比增5.3%，其中建材消费环比增11.1%，板材消费环比增 1.8%。消息面，据Mysteel不完全统计，中天、武钢等多家钢厂检修减产。基本面，五大钢材供需双 增，下游旺季需求持续释放，消费呈现建材板材双增，总库存大幅下降，主要来自螺纹贡献。低价抄底 和天气回暖等因素下，钢材需求有韧性，钢价短期或反弹。策略上，螺纹钢10合约近期被3150一线压 制，关注下方3000附近支撑，3000-3150区间震荡思路对待。 机构 核心观点 国都期货 螺纹钢3000-3150区间震荡思路对待 光大期货 预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主 光大期货：预计短期螺纹盘面仍以低位整理为主 印度财政部4月21日在 ...