2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债市收益率有望破新低，观点相对乐观，可继续优先配 置受益于陡峭的收益率曲线和边际宽松的资金面的短端利率债。 销售服务电话： 相关研究报告 【股市方面】静观其变，谋而后动。一方面，海外关税进入博弈、谈判阶 段，或仍有反复，且难以修复到特朗普上台前水平。另一方面，关税对经济冲 击有待观察。待经济冲击加大或 7 月份，增量政策有望落地。可适度控制仓 位，静观其变，建议关注红利 ...

Market Overview - A-shares market showed a slight decline in the morning, with the TMT sector experiencing significant adjustments, dragging down overall market performance [1][4][5] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced low-level fluctuations in the morning, with certain stocks like 恒基地产 and 周大福 showing gains [2][17][18] TMT Sector Performance - The TMT sector, particularly the electronics segment, led the decline with a drop exceeding 2%, impacting several leading stocks in the sector [6][9] - 华虹公司 saw its A-share price plummet, with an intraday drop of up to 12%, while its Hong Kong stock fell over 13%. The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.913 billion yuan, an 18.66% year-on-year increase, but a net profit of 22.7634 million yuan, down 89.73% year-on-year [7] - 中芯国际's A-shares dropped over 4%, with its Hong Kong shares falling more than 10%. The company reported Q1 2025 sales of $2.247 billion, a 1.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, and a gross margin of 22.5%. However, it provided a revenue guidance for Q2 indicating a potential decline of 4% to 6% [8] Other Sector Movements - The beauty and personal care sector led the gains, with stocks like 水羊股份 rising over 10% [10] - Banking and public utility sectors also showed positive performance [11] Stock Volatility - Several stocks continued to show strong performance, with companies like 华纺股份 and 利君股份 hitting the limit-up for multiple consecutive trading days. Both companies issued risk warnings regarding their stock price volatility [12][14][15] Notable Stock Movements - In the Hong Kong market, 中国碳中和 surged with an intraday increase exceeding 60% following a voluntary announcement of share purchases by its non-executive director [3][21]

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。 中泰证券表示，从行业配置角度看，有三条主线值得关注：（1）TMT景气度有望贯穿全年。（2）稳 增长政策下，关注低位周期股"困境反转"。从估值-盈利角度看，石油石化、有色金属市净率存在一定 修复空间。3、中期经济压力持续，关注稳健类板块。公用事业、交通运输板块盈利能力稳定，且估值 偏低，具备较强的安全边际。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 5月9日，三大指数集体低开，中船系、减肥药、银行等板块和概念股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中证A500 指数跌0.26%，成分股中，中航成飞涨超5%，中鼎股份、百济神州-U、信立泰、安克创新等跟涨。 相关ETF中，截至发稿，A500指数ETF（159351）跌0.42%，成交额超6700万元。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）已连续三个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.8亿元。 A500指数ETF（159351 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has officially addressed the controversies surrounding quantitative trading, indicating a phase of regulatory results. The intention was to enhance market efficiency, but the actual implementation has deviated, leading to significant market impacts [1] - Quantitative trading utilizes data and algorithms for rapid profit generation, including tracking large buy orders and executing trades at preset positions. The new regulations will monitor abnormal behaviors in quantitative trading, which may cause short-term market volatility due to potential sell-offs [1] - In the long term, reduced interference from quantitative trading is expected to lead to a more rational and stable market, ultimately protecting the rights of ordinary investors [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a strong upward trend, opening higher and maintaining momentum throughout the trading session. The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3% during the recent holiday period, providing a positive foundation for the A-share market [3] - The offshore RMB closed near 7.27, having risen significantly from a low of 7.18, indicating a substantial appreciation of 900 points, which is favorable for the A-share market [3] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan has identified consumer and technology sectors as key areas for strengthening economic expectations. The consumer sector is currently experiencing high profitability, while the technology sector is seen as having potential for recovery after recent adjustments [5] - The technology sector's crowdedness has decreased, and market focus is shifting back to long-term industry trends. High PE, TMT, and AI sectors are expected to gain traction in the upcoming months [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1% to reclaim the 3300-point mark, with nearly 5000 stocks in the green. The market experienced a strong performance with over 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating a robust profit-making environment [7] - Despite the overall market strength, certain sectors such as oil, banking, and tourism faced declines, while thematic stocks are anticipated to present significant opportunities in May [7]

思想钢印每日投资感悟 20250430 去年是大票业绩强于小票，但 Q1 小盘指数业绩改善明显改善，超过了大盘指数的业绩， 也验证了复苏期，往往小票先行的宏观经验 一、宏观&策略 | | A股市场核心指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 创成长 | 创业板综 | 创价值 | 国证2000 | | 1.66% | 1.25% | 1.11% | 1.04% | | 1118181819 | 科创20 | 创业板50 | 创业板指 | | 50 0.87% | 0.85% | 0.84% | 0.83% | | 中证1000 | 深证A指 | 东方财富 | 国证1000 | | 0.79% | 0.70% | 全A 0.09% | 0.06% | | 中证800 | 中证A100 | 沪深300 | FIF180 | | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.17% | | A股指数 | 上证指数 | FJF20 | 红利指数 | | -0.23% | -0.23% | -0.47% | -0.87% | 一季报全部出披露完毕，一定程度上也解释了一季度的上涨 ...

Group 1 - The market continued to show a volatile upward trend with an average daily trading volume of approximately 11,466 billion yuan, indicating a return to domestic market sentiment and trading driven by funds [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks; sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, while food and beverage, real estate, and coal lagged [1] - Domestic consumption related to travel and subsidized goods remains a key driver, despite a weakening in real estate sales, which still outperformed seasonal expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized stability, with a focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations," indicating a heightened importance on employment [3] - The meeting also highlighted the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting that subsequent policy implementations may accelerate [3] - The focus on consumption, manufacturing, real estate, and industrial innovation indicates a broad coverage of stimulus directions, with service consumption likely to be a key area for future growth [4] Group 3 - The market outlook suggests a short-term range-bound fluctuation, with the potential for technology stocks to outperform structurally [6] - The easing impact of tariffs on the domestic market and the support from risk appetite and fund profitability will be crucial for future market performance [6] - The investment strategy may favor a "value dividend + TMT theme" approach, with high-quality dividend assets expected to provide stable returns and technology stocks showing significant elasticity [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the small-cap index rising by 2.1%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index saw a decline of 0.4%. Industries such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed relatively well, whereas food and beverage, as well as real estate, lagged behind [1][12][14]. Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of equity funds increased by 0.84 percentage points to 84.01%. The allocation to Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high of 13.22%, reflecting a 2.66 percentage point increase from the previous quarter. The equity positions of various fund types are at relatively high levels compared to the past decade [2][17][24]. - The allocation of equity funds has shifted towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), domestic consumption, and resource sectors. The DeepSeek technology breakthrough has led to a structural increase in TMT allocations, particularly in downstream media [2][25][28]. Group 3 - The concentration of top holdings in equity funds has slightly increased, indicating a reduction in market divergence among public funds. The top 10, 30, 50, and 100 holdings accounted for 20.6%, 34.5%, 42.5%, and 54.7% of total holdings, respectively [3][34]. - The top 10 holdings as of the end of Q1 2025 include Tencent Holdings, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba-W, Midea Group, Luxshare Precision, BYD, Zijin Mining, SMIC, and Wuliangye. New entrants to the top 10 include Alibaba-W, BYD, and SMIC, while Cambrian, Hengrui Medicine, and North Huachuang dropped out [3][40]. Group 4 - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4%. This trend may be influenced by the concentration of earnings reports in April, leading to cautious investor behavior [4][43][50]. - The April Politburo meeting emphasized a bottom-line thinking approach, aiming for "four stabilizations" and focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties. The meeting outlined four policy priorities, including ensuring livelihoods and accelerating fiscal fund deployment [4][44].

分析师：蔡梦苑 此次政府工作报告重点突出了三条政策线索： 1、在总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度，突出了提质效，且根据形势变化动态调整政 策的特征。 2、应对当前经济面临的内外部压力和挑战，我国后续经济增长的三大"破局"方向：内需消费、科 技创新、改革开放。 登记编号： S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 投资要点 风险提示： 经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，地缘风险，海外衰退风险，外 部政策不确定性风险。 事件： 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 总量线索： 提质效，早发力，留后手 总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度。 为达成5%左右GDP目标，财政政策也进一步发 力，赤字率打破约束提升至4%，1.3万亿的超长期特别国债+5000亿特别国债（支持国有大型商业 银行补充资本），地方政府专项债4.4万亿，合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元、比上年增加 2.9万亿元。 3、股市楼市债市线索：股市楼市有望延续企稳向好，债市也有望迎来阶段性修复。 A股方面，两会行情下大盘宽基、顺经济周期 ...