Economic Data - From January to August, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] - In August, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises experienced a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4%, reversing a decline of 1.5% in July [1] - The growth in profits is attributed to effective macro policies, the deepening of a unified national market, and a low base from the previous year [1] Automotive Industry - BMW Group plans to recall over 330,000 vehicles due to potential short circuit risks in the starter and related components [2] - More than 130,000 of the affected vehicles are located in Germany, with the recall potentially impacting more countries due to the range of models produced between September 2015 and September 2021 [2] Technology Sector - Tencent Mixuan announced the release of a new generation of 3D generation models, including Mixuan 3D-Omni and Mixuan 3D-Part, which enhance the practicality of AI 3D modeling [3] - The Mixuan 3D-Omni framework supports multiple modal inputs for precise control over geometric structure, topology, and posture, while Mixuan 3D-Part allows for flexible and controllable component generation [3] - Both models are fully open-sourced and free to use, facilitating academic research and industrial deployment [3] Company Developments - Guo'an Da has successfully developed a fixed automatic fire extinguishing system for converter stations and substations, recognized as a key technology for fire safety in ultra-high voltage converter stations [4] - Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing has established a joint venture focusing on the research and development of industrial robots, with plans to expand into new materials, sensors, and battery technologies [4] - Xiaomi's 17 series smartphones achieved record sales within five minutes of launch, with the 17 Pro Max model accounting for over 50% of sales in the series [5] Market Insights - Everbright Securities reports that the logic supporting the current stock market rally remains unchanged, with reasonable market valuations [6] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key focus for investment, driven by ongoing industry trends and the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1][9][10] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [1][9][10] - Market style has shifted towards growth, with large-cap growth stocks increasing by 2.5% while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [1][12][19] Group 2 - Recent policy developments include the maintenance of the LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with no new special treatment sought by China in WTO negotiations [2][17][18] - The steel industry has received a growth stabilization plan from five departments, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [2][21] - Major tech events include the 2025 Yunqi Conference where Alibaba Cloud showcased innovations, and Huawei's launch of new electric vehicle models, indicating ongoing advancements in the TMT sector [2][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market fluctuations align with historical patterns, with potential adjustments expected to narrow the market's upward movement to 6%-7% [3][23] - The logic supporting the current bull market remains intact, with expectations for continued stability in the economic fundamentals and a favorable environment for TMT sectors [3][24][33] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a key focus for mid-term investments, driven by liquidity and recent positive developments in the industry [3][37][45]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯9月27日电，光大证券研报认为，节后A股市场有望继续上行。历史来看，国庆节后随着市场 交易热度的回暖，市场通常表现较好。对于本轮行情而言，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发生变化， 市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支，预计节后市场大概率将重新回到上行区间。配置方向 上，建议重点关注TMT主线。流动性驱动行情下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如 此。TMT板块当前存在较多催化，如产业趋势持续有进展、美联储降息周期开启等，自身也存在上行 动力。从近期板块轮动的情况来看，TMT已经有所占优，未来行情或将延续。 ...

Market Overview - In September, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with most major A-share indices showing an upward trend, particularly the ChiNext Index, while the SSE 50 Index experienced the largest decline [4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by the overseas interest rate cuts and improved domestic risk appetite, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% [4] A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, supported by historical trends of increased trading activity post-holiday and reasonable market valuations [5] - The TMT sector is recommended as a key focus for investment, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as ongoing industrial trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [5] Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to support a continued upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market, which has strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations [6] - A "barbell" strategy is suggested for investment, focusing on sectors like self-controllable technology, high-end manufacturing, and high-dividend low-volatility stocks such as telecommunications and utilities [6]

Market Overview - In September, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 12.0%, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 0.8% [1][8]. - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 5.6% as of September 25, 2025 [1][11]. A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend post-National Day, supported by stable economic fundamentals and reasonable market valuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.5 times [2][14]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is recommended as a key focus area, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as advancements in AI and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][16][17]. Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations, particularly in sectors like technology and new consumption [3][18]. - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic policies in the context of US-China relations, as well as high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][18]. Stock Recommendations - For October 2025, the recommended A-share stocks include SMIC, Cambricon, Hikvision, Aolai Technology, Huayou Cobalt, Sany Heavy Industry, Haier Smart Home, China Merchants Bank, China Merchants Shekou, and Shanghai Lingang [3][20]. - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for October 2025 include Alibaba, Baidu, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Xindong Company [3][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of momentum in navigating the technology landscape, particularly in the context of past market events and the current AI boom [1]. Group 1: Market Experience - The author has over two decades of experience in the market, specifically focusing on the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [1]. - The author has navigated significant market events such as the dot-com bubble, the credit default crisis of 2008, and the recent surge in artificial intelligence [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary focus of the author's investment strategy revolves around risk mitigation and identifying momentum within the market [1].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on sectors such as robotics, new energy in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, chemicals, securities, and internet stocks in Hong Kong [2][4] Industry Insights - **Robotics**: Domestic production capacity for industrial robots is rapidly expanding, with a cumulative production of 447,100 units from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.9%. Service robots also saw a cumulative production of 10,378,300 units, up 23.6% year-on-year. The acceleration of Tesla's Optimus project is a significant catalyst for the sector [4][5] - **New Energy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of "involution" competition among new energy companies, leading to an increase in multi-crystalline silicon prices from 35,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, which is expected to improve profitability for photovoltaic companies. The global deployment of battery energy storage systems is projected to grow by 54% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 86.7 GWh [5] - **Chemicals**: The supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry are expected to improve, with significant room for valuation recovery. The Central Financial Committee's emphasis on addressing "involution" and promoting orderly competition is likely to enhance the competitive landscape [5] - **Securities**: The securities sector is benefiting from a recovery in market risk appetite, with IPO and refinancing volumes increasing by 17% and 59% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of 2025. The growth in various brokerage services is expected to continue as the capital market undergoes reforms [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of momentum in navigating the technology landscape, particularly in the context of past market events such as the dot com bubble, the credit default crisis of 2008, and the recent AI boom [1] Group 1 - The author has over two decades of experience in the market, specifically focusing on the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors [1] - The article highlights the author's specialization in risk mitigation strategies during significant market downturns [1] - The current focus is on leveraging momentum as a key strategy for investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core concept of TMT is the combination of Technology, Media, and Telecom, representing a significant sector in the capital market often leading in bull markets and viewed as a growth investment opportunity [2][7][10]. - TMT encompasses a wide range of companies related to information technology, making it a popular investment area [3][6][7]. Group 2 - To quickly find TMT sector ETFs, users can utilize the Go-Goal App or the ETF search mini-program by selecting the TMT category in the ETF screening feature [3][10][12]. - The ETF screening function allows investors to filter through various categories, including asset class, major sectors, style characteristics, trading tags, management methods, investment regions, index types, and operational nature, facilitating a more targeted search for specific ETFs [4][10][15].