2025 年 9 月 1 日 总量研究 TMT 主题基金涨幅优势延续，超百亿资金加仓 TMT、周期行业 ETF ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250901 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.8.25-2025.8.29）国内权益市场热度持续，创业板指上涨 7.74%，港股 呈现调整。行业方面，本周通信、有色金属、电子行业涨幅居前，纺织服 饰、煤炭、银行行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周权益型基金整体表现较 好，偏股混合型基金领涨，混合债券型一级基金回调。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场热度上升，股票型基金发行火热，新 成立基金 44 只，合计发行份额为 282.05 亿份。其中股票型基金 29 只、混 合型基金 5 只、债券型基金 5 只、FOF 基金 2 只、REITs1 只、货币市场型 基金 2 只。全市场新发行基金 29 只，从类型来看，股票型基金 19 只、混合 型基金 7 只、债券型基金 3 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：行业主题基金方面，本周各主题基金净值多数上涨， TMT 主题基金涨幅优势延续，净值上涨 5.85%，金融地产、医药主题基金呈 现回 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened higher on September 1, with fluctuations observed during the morning session, leading to slight increases by midday [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.65 points, up 0.12%, with a trading volume of approximately 805.1 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12710.25 points, up 0.11%, with a trading volume of about 1023.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals, semiconductors, and communication equipment sectors showed strong performance at the opening [1] - Gold, non-ferrous metals, tourism, and pharmaceuticals sectors continued to rise initially, while solid-state batteries, paper, real estate, and wind-sand governance sectors gained momentum during the session [1] - By midday, gold, non-ferrous metals, and CRO concepts had the highest overall gains, while insurance, aviation, and securities sectors experienced the most significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that while the TMT sector's congestion has not peaked, it is approaching a warning line, suggesting that low-heat sectors like consumption and cyclical industries may offer better value in the next market phase [2] - Guotai Junan emphasized that the current bull market mindset is firmly established, with technology remaining a strong focus, and suggested that the necessity for high-low switching is not strong in a bull market environment [2] - Dongwu Securities highlighted the inevitability of AI applications' rise, recommending investments in downstream application sectors such as AI + innovative pharmaceuticals, AI + military, and AI-driven robotics [3] Box Office Performance - The box office for China's summer film season in 2025 reached 11.966 billion yuan, with 321 million viewers [4] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" led the box office with 2.89 billion yuan, followed by several other titles in the top six [4] Gold Market Trends - International gold prices have reached a historical high, with New York futures closing at $3516.1 per ounce on August 29, surpassing the previous closing price of $3482.7 on August 7, 2025 [5] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to market expectations regarding a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and increasing risk aversion among investors [5]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 刚过去的交易周（8月25日至29日），A股迎来第四周连涨，但波动显著加剧，甚至可以说晃得人"头晕 目眩"。 如下图所示，沪指与平均股价本周均收十字星，共同点是下影线很长。 但另一边，双创指数本周相当强势——既未回吐上周涨幅，阳线的实体部分也都更长。 结合主要股指的周涨跌幅来看，当下市场对风格的偏好就可以用几个词来概括：科技属性、大容量和大 市值。 | 名称 | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板指 | 7.74% | 34.95% | | 科创50 | 7.49% | 35.63% | | 深证成指 | 4.36% | 21.91% | | 中证A500 | 3.34% | 16.57% | | 中证500 | 3.24% | 23.02% | | 沪深300 | 2.71% | 14.28% | | 中证A50 | 2.62% | 10.67% | | 中证1000 | 1.03% | 24.86% | | 上证指数 | 0.84% | 15.10% | | 中证2000 | -0.78% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Hongde Research Preferred Mixed Fund, which achieved a net value growth rate of 7.60% in the first half of 2025, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 0.11% during the same period [1] - Since its establishment on May 27, 2019, the fund has accumulated a net value growth rate of 81.69%, compared to a benchmark return of 11.79% [1] Group 2 - The fund manager, Wang Keyu, noted that since the second half of 2021, the continuous decline in the real estate sector has negatively impacted consumer confidence and government spending, leading to deteriorating profits in certain domestic demand industries reliant on land resources and real estate [3] - Wang Keyu emphasized that the trend of reduction and optimization will be a long-term development direction for some industries, while many listed companies have been enhancing their competitive advantages within the supply chain and improving their international operational capabilities [3] - Since mid-2024, there has been a significant improvement in domestic financial policies, with a focus on enhancing investor returns and improving the quality of listed companies [3] Group 3 - Wang Keyu believes that the cyclical factors of economic activities reaching a bottom, along with major policy shifts in finance and industry, will create opportunities for domestic demand to rebound [4] - However, uncertainties such as tariffs and trade barriers may lead to significant fluctuations in external demand, and high volatility in financial markets may occur intermittently [4] - The investment strategy will focus on sectors such as advantageous manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and TMT, while also seeking cost-effective investment opportunities in infrastructure assets [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent stock market rally is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural benefits, forming a positive cycle where increased funds lead to higher trading volumes and greater upward momentum. However, there is a risk of a callback, and key indicators to watch for a shift in sentiment include a contraction in trading volume, a decline in basis, and a drop in implied volatility of options. Currently, trading volume remains around 3 trillion, and while optimism persists, risk management is necessary for single - sided long positions in futures. [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, and after mid - August, optimism about the long - term stock market trend has increased. Strategies should be mainly long - oriented, but attention should be paid to key indicators for sentiment changes. In terms of style, weight - based stocks are showing advantages, and different trading strategies are recommended for different scenarios. [24] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Stock Market Trend Analysis - Since April, the stock index has shown an overall oscillating upward trend. After the sharp decline in April, the trading volume of broad - based indices gradually returned to normal with the entry of the national team. The rapid upward movement since late June is due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and various structural benefits. From June 20th to now, sectors such as TMT, new energy, non - banking finance, and steel have seen significant gains. [2] - The current rally is driven by the support of the national team, the release of structural benefits, positive sentiment, and the influx of funds. The trading volume of the two markets has climbed from around 1 trillion to about 3.1 trillion, approaching the high of last year. The proportion of margin trading in the total trading volume has also increased from about 8% to around 11.6%. [2] - In terms of stock index style, due to the influx of funds, small - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 are stronger as both hot money and leveraged funds prefer small - cap stocks with high elasticity and the support of technology concepts. [3] 2. Futures Index Observation and Analysis - With the rise of the stock market and the strong performance of small - cap stocks, the futures index has the following changes: the inter - period spread (next - quarter - current month) first dropped significantly and then rose rapidly; small - cap futures index IM has shown better performance, but there are signs of a recent style shift; the basis of the futures index has generally increased. [8] - The inter - period spread has not deviated from its operating rules. The stronger performance of the far - month contracts since mid - August may reflect an optimistic shift in market expectations for the far - term trend, influenced by factors such as the rebound from low spreads and the change in market expectations from short - term to long - term. Additionally, arbitrage trading at low spread levels has also contributed to the spread rebound. [8][9] - In terms of cross - varieties, small - and medium - cap futures indices have been stronger during the rally, but there are signs of a style shift since the end of August. This may be due to low - point arbitrage trading, the high valuation of small - cap stocks leading to a potential shift of funds to weight - based stocks, and the heavy trading of weight - based stocks in broad - based indices. [15][16] - The basis of the futures index has been rising due to positive sentiment and is currently at a high level for the year. Although there is still room for growth compared to last year's high, considering the low starting point and significant increase, there is a need to be vigilant about a cooling of sentiment. [18] 3. Stock Index Option Observation and Analysis - The implied volatility of options has increased significantly since mid - August, indicating that the market's long - term expectations have deviated from the previous consensus, and optimism about the long - term trend has increased. The stock index has also made breakthroughs, which may have attracted more funds and boosted sentiment. Currently, the implied volatility of stock index options is at a relatively high - middle level in history with room for further increase. [22] 4. Strategy Recommendations - In terms of futures, single - sided long positions should be held with risk management. In terms of style, it is recommended to focus on IF, but if the Fed cuts interest rates in September and liquidity expectations rise, small - cap stocks may show advantages again, and a temporary shift to IM can be considered. For long - term holding, IF is still recommended. Cross - variety arbitrage can focus on long IF and short IM, especially when the spread is at a low level. In terms of inter - period trading, follow the long - term rule of negative correlation between the stock market and the inter - period spread, and take the opportunity to short far - month contracts and long near - month contracts when the two show positive correlation. [24] - For options, due to the high uncertainty of the stock index trend and implied volatility, it is recommended to combine with spot trading, mainly using the insurance strategy (spot + buying put options) to obtain stock market gains while avoiding the risk of a market decline. [25]

Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, and the STAR Market 50 index rising over 7%, indicating strong support momentum [1] - Following a significant adjustment on Wednesday, the market quickly recovered, suggesting a potential continuation of upward momentum [1] Key Sectors - The main focus of the market remains on computing power and semiconductor chips, with several core stocks reaching new highs, including Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, and others [1] - The performance of Nvidia and related industry stocks continues to show rapid growth, indicating sustained industry prosperity [1] Investment Opportunities - There is an ongoing trend of capital inflow into the computing hardware sector, expanding beyond core stocks like CPO and PCB to include liquid cooling, data centers, optical fibers, and copper cables, presenting opportunities for potential gains in these segments [1] - The semiconductor sector is also showing strength, with stocks like Cambrian rising over 15% and SMIC increasing over 17%, both reaching historical highs [2] Market Sentiment - As of August 28, TMT transaction volume accounted for 40.8%, nearing historical highs but not yet at extreme levels, indicating a potential for increased market divergence [2] - Recent announcements regarding stock suspensions and risk warnings from popular stocks like Dongxin and Cambrian may impact short-term market sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance today, with major indices collectively rising, indicating a potential recovery phase despite some underlying volatility in individual stocks [2][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14% to close at 3843.60 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25% to 12571.37 points. The ChiNext Index surged by 3.82% to 2827.17 points, and the STAR Market 50 Index jumped by 7.23% to 1364.60 points [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 29,708 billion, a decrease of 1,948 billion from the previous day [2]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector, led by companies like Cambrian (寒武纪), saw significant gains, with Cambrian's stock price soaring to 1587 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai [3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector emerged as the market's focal point, with notable increases in communication and electronic components sectors, rising by 3.69% and 3.39% respectively [3][4]. - Despite the overall index performance, individual stock performance showed significant divergence, with over 4,000 companies experiencing price declines during the day [5]. Financial Sector Dynamics - The financial sector, particularly banks and insurance, played a crucial role in market regulation, with notable selling pressure observed during the trading session [6]. - The selling pressure in the financial sector is attributed to profit-taking from previous gains, the influx of speculative short-term funds, and a mismatch between current index performance and long-term market expectations [6]. External Market Influences - Nvidia's recent quarterly report, which showed disappointing results, led to a decline in its stock price, impacting sentiment in the semiconductor market [6]. - The Hong Kong market experienced a downturn, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.81%, influenced by intensified competition in the food delivery sector, affecting major players like Meituan and Alibaba [6]. Investor Sentiment and Strategy - The current market environment necessitates careful direction choices for investors, emphasizing the importance of avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [7]. - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan to 7.1216 is seen as a significant positive factor for assets denominated in yuan, although the timing of its impact on financial and real estate sectors remains uncertain [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in stock prices of SMIC and Cambricon, both reaching historical highs, amidst a strong interest in the AI sector on the STAR Market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - SMIC's stock price surged nearly 15%, contributing over 17 points to the STAR Market's gains [2]. - Cambricon's stock rose over 8%, surpassing the price of Kweichow Moutai, with a total market capitalization exceeding 610 billion yuan [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The influx of capital into the AI sector is expected to continue as the market capitalization of key companies increases, attracting passive ETF allocations [1]. - Despite the strong performance of major stocks, there is a warning about a potential deterioration in trading structure, with over 3,700 stocks declining in value [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current market dynamics appear to be driven by a short-term surge, caution is advised regarding the potential for a reversal in market sentiment and the stability of trading structures [7][8]. - The TMT sector's trading volume has increased significantly, nearing historical highs, indicating a concentrated investment trend that may not be sustainable [8].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76% to 3800.35 points, breaking below the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term adjustment [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.69%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index dropped 0.79% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 486.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed strong performance, with telecommunications, artificial intelligence, chips, and consumer electronics leading the gains [1] - Conversely, sectors previously benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as steel, coal, and building materials, saw significant declines [1] Investment Sentiment - Overall market sentiment is neutral to slightly weak, with more than 4700 stocks declining [1] - Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap stocks, while growth stocks outperformed value stocks, indicating a preference for innovation-driven investments [1] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term pullback, there is a long-term positive outlook for the stock market, with attention on whether the 20-day moving average can stabilize [1] - The current rally in A-shares is not isolated, as global markets are also pricing in expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a recovery in the manufacturing cycle [1] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond index rose slightly by 0.03%, indicating relative stability in the bond market [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist in the short term, with potential support for bond prices if yields rise too high [2] Communication Sector Dynamics - The communication industry is driven by the continuous growth of global data traffic, with advancements in 3G, 4G, and 5G technologies enhancing data transmission efficiency [9] - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers in North America is projected to reach $71.11 billion in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 30.2% to 33.5% [10] - The government's policies to enhance AI infrastructure and optimize resource allocation are expected to catalyze growth in the communication sector, particularly in light of increasing demand for AI-related applications [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on August 27, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2][3]. - A - share market sentiment has been rising recently, with over 60% of billion - level private equity funds approaching full - position operations. However, the high turnover rate of on - site funds may increase short - term market volatility [16]. - The scale of Chinese ETFs has officially entered the 5 - trillion era, and the total scale of public funds has set a new record for the tenth time since early 2024 [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1. Stock Index Futures - On August 27, 2025, stock index futures are expected to have a strong - side shock. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4490 and 4530 points and support levels at 4449 and 4425 points [2]. - In August 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to have strong - side or shock - biased - strong trends [19][20]. 3.1.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 27, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with support at 107.82 and 107.66 yuan and resistance at 108.09 and 108.17 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is also likely to have a wide - range shock, with support at 116.5 and 116.1 yuan and resistance at 117.8 and 118.1 yuan [38][42]. 3.1.3. Commodity Futures - Gold, copper, aluminum, zinc, glass, soda ash, PVC, and natural rubber futures are expected to have strong - side shocks on August 27, 2025; silver and PTA futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thermal coil, soybean meal, soybean oil, and methanol futures are expected to have weak - side shocks; crude oil futures are expected to have a weak - side shock [2][3][5][7]. - Alumina, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and iron ore futures are expected to have wide - range shocks on August 27, 2025 [4][5]. 3.2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The State Council has issued an action plan for in - depth implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +", aiming to achieve wide - ranging and in - depth integration of AI in six key areas by 2027 and full - scale empowerment of high - quality development by 2030 [8]. - China's outbound investment flow has ranked among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years as of the end of 2024, with an outbound investment stock of over 3 trillion US dollars and accounting for 7.2% of global outbound investment [8]. - The US President Trump has made statements on trade agreements, tariffs on imported furniture, and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which have an impact on the market [10]. 3.3. A - Share Market Situation - On August 26, 2025, the broader market had a narrow - range shock with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26%. A - share trading volume was 2.71 trillion yuan, down from 3.18 trillion yuan the previous day [16]. - A - share market sentiment has been rising recently, with private equity funds actively deploying. Over 60% of billion - level private equity funds are approaching full - position operations, focusing on technology growth, small - and medium - cap, and high - prosperity sectors [16]. 3.4. Global Market Situation - On August 26, 2025, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.18%, and the US three major stock indexes rose slightly, while European three major stock indexes fell across the board [18][19]. - On August 26, 2025, international precious metal futures closed mixed, London base metals mostly rose, and the US dollar index fell [12].