以下文章来源于大势看财经 ，作者张一 大势看财经 . 《财经》杂志宏观学术部团队以独立、独家、独到的信念为读者提供原创的宏观政策解读、部委政策动 向、经济趋势前瞻以及名家前沿观察 美国有意无意推动美元贬值的行为对国际金融体系的影响有可能在未来进一步显现，金融市场的巨幅 波动不可避免。 张一 恒泰证券 研究所所长、 首席经济学家 自特朗普再度入主白宫后，其团队推出了一项被称之为"海湖庄园协议"（Mar-a-Lago Accord） 的经济战略构想。该战略构想来自特朗普政府经济顾问委员会（CEA）主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）于2024年11月撰写的一份题为《重构全球贸易体系使用指南》（A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System）的报告（《米兰报告》）。从特朗普百日施政的结 果看，基于该报告的"海湖庄园协议"构想已经对全球金融、贸易、产业乃至政治格局产生影响。从 趋势看，未来相当长一段时间而不是特朗普执政这四年，相关战略思想都会持续对国际政治经济格局 产生影响。 图表1 美元储备和美元指数对比 该报告主要涵盖三方面内容，一是美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with all maturities exceeding 4%, and the 30-year yield approaching 5% [1] - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is driven by four main factors: U.S. government tariffs leading to inflation expectations, declining foreign investor interest, rapid unwinding of basis trades due to soaring yields, and a diminished reputation of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset [2] - There is a possibility of continued significant increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields in the coming months, which could pose more risks to the U.S. economy and undermine the foundation of the dollar's dominance [2] Group 2 - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries, with some indicating that the recent softening of U.S. tariff attitudes and progress in U.S.-China trade talks have improved risk appetite, while others warn of the declining safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries [3][4] - A report from Renmin University warns that the U.S. national credit is approaching a visible crisis, predicting that 2025 could be the year of a U.S. Treasury collapse, urging vigilance regarding volatility in U.S. financial markets [5] - The report indicates that the U.S. government is losing credibility, with over a 50% chance of economic recession by 2025, exposing vulnerabilities in the dollar system and leading to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries [6] Group 3 - Global central banks are continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [8] - The report suggests that the potential collapse of U.S. Treasuries is not the end of the international financial system but the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system [8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to counteract the inflation caused by his tariff policies, while the Fed maintains its independence and focuses on combating inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Impacts - Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates is primarily driven by the negative impact of his tariff policies, which have increased import costs and led to input inflation [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of 2.4%, suggesting that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in economic data [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve is designed to be insulated from political fluctuations to maintain long-term economic stability, and it has stated that it will not yield to political pressure from Trump [4]. - The Fed's primary responsibilities include maintaining price stability and a healthy labor market, which are guided by economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is also influenced by historical lessons and the need to preserve policy space for potential future crises [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Dynamics - Despite the ongoing tensions, both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve share a common goal of maintaining the dollar's strong position in the global financial system [7]. - There is a growing demand among Asian banks and brokers for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, indicating a potential erosion of the dollar's dominance [8]. - The increasing interest in loans denominated in renminbi reflects a shift in global financial dynamics, as businesses seek alternatives to the dollar [8].

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are emerging as an unexpected ally in reinforcing the dominance of the US dollar amidst global de-dollarization discussions, with significant implications for international finance and payment systems [1][14]. Group 1: Growth and Adoption of Stablecoins - The total market size of stablecoins has surged from $20 billion in 2020 to an estimated $246 billion by May 2025, with Tether (USDT) alone growing from $67 billion in June 2022 to over $149 billion by May 2025 [7][19]. - Stablecoin transaction volume has increased by 598% since 2020, reaching $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard [9][19]. - Active stablecoin wallet addresses grew from 22.8 million in February 2024 to over 35 million by February 2025, marking a 53% increase [9]. Group 2: Impact on Europe and Financial Stability - The widespread adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins in Europe poses a threat to the European Central Bank's (ECB) control over monetary policy, as transactions may bypass the euro system, reducing the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [2][3]. - Concerns arise regarding financial stability, as European businesses earning in euros but receiving payments in dollar stablecoins could face currency mismatch risks if the euro depreciates [2][3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate the market, with 83% of stablecoins linked to the US dollar, while euro-pegged stablecoins hold a negligible market share, leading to higher transaction costs for euro stablecoins [5][16]. - The regulatory environment in the EU is stricter compared to the US, where there is more room for innovation and expansion due to the absence of comprehensive legislation [5][16]. - Dollar stablecoins have established a strong presence in early application scenarios, benefiting from network effects within the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms [5][16]. Group 4: Strategic Asset and Political Support - Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as strategic assets, with Tether being one of the largest holders of US Treasury securities, indicating a shift in how these digital currencies are perceived [13][15]. - Political backing from figures like former President Trump and Republican lawmakers positions stablecoins as a private sector solution to digital currency, contrasting with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [18][19]. Group 5: Future Projections - Standard Chartered forecasts that the supply of stablecoins could grow nearly tenfold from $230 billion to approximately $2 trillion by the end of 2028, significantly impacting foreign exchange market volumes [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with 30-year yields approaching 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, indicates significant market volatility and potential risks for U.S. debt credibility [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Treasury Yield Increase - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields since April is attributed to four main factors: 1. The U.S. government's excessive tariffs leading to inflation expectations [4]. 2. A decline in foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. debt [4]. 3. Rapid unwinding of Treasury basis trades due to soaring yields [4]. 4. A significant erosion of the reputation of U.S. debt as a global safe asset [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that long-term Treasury yields may continue to rise in the coming months, posing further risks to the U.S. economy and undermining the dollar's dominance [4][10]. - The current environment is compared to 2011, with expectations that funds flowing to European and Japanese markets may eventually return to U.S. Treasuries [6]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Domestic institutions have differing opinions on U.S. Treasuries: 1. CICC suggests that the recent softening of U.S. tariff attitudes and progress in U.S.-China trade talks have improved risk appetite, but the fundamental issues regarding the dollar's safe-haven status remain unresolved [6]. 2. Guotai Junan believes that the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms in place, and the short-term default risk is low, viewing U.S. Treasuries as more valuable than European or Japanese bonds in the long run [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk and Future Outlook - A report from Renmin University warns that the U.S. national credit is approaching a visible crisis, with 2025 potentially marking a significant downturn for U.S. debt [9][10]. - The U.S. debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [10]. - The report predicts that interest payments on U.S. debt could reach $13.8 trillion over the next decade, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total of the past 20 years [10]. Group 5: Global Trends in Treasury Holdings - Global central banks are continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [11]. - The report suggests that the decline of U.S. Treasury credibility is not just a financial issue but signals a broader shift towards a multipolar currency system [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. appear to be a temporary pause in a larger trade conflict, with both sides maintaining significant tariffs on key goods [1][3]. - The U.S. decision to lower tariffs is seen as a strategic retreat under inflationary pressure, with potential annual costs of $3,800 for American households if tariffs remain high [3]. - China's significant export reductions, particularly in rare earths, highlight the leverage it holds in the supply chain, suggesting that the U.S. may not be able to rely solely on technology restrictions to pressure China [3][5]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes that China's manufacturing presence is growing globally, with a market share of over 60% in Africa for mobile phones and a significant presence in U.S. supermarkets [5]. - The narrative suggests that any attempts at de-globalization will ultimately fail, as evidenced by China's increasing trade with Latin America surpassing that with the U.S. [5]. - The ongoing tariff dispute is framed as a broader geopolitical struggle, with implications for global power dynamics and the diminishing unilateral influence of the U.S. [3][5].

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Group 1 - The ongoing negotiations between the US and China in Geneva are being referred to as a "21st Century Bretton Woods moment," indicating a significant financial confrontation with potentially greater risks than trade wars [1] - The US Treasury Secretary brings a historical high of $8.2 trillion in maturing debt by 2025, with interest payments alone being substantial enough to fund 20 aircraft carriers [3] - Global buyers are fleeing US debt, with China reducing its holdings for eight consecutive months and Japan selling off $300 billion, while Saudi Arabia is quietly settling oil transactions in RMB [3] Group 2 - The US is pressuring China to increase its holdings of $200 billion in long-term US debt, with proposals including concessions on high-tech export restrictions and tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [5] - China's negotiation team is prepared, presenting a "de-dollarization roadmap" signed by 28 countries, which poses a significant challenge to US dollar dominance [8] - The volume of oil transactions settled in RMB between China and Saudi Arabia has surged by 380%, and a new payment system among BRICS nations has integrated 47 countries [8] Group 3 - The negotiations are critical due to two irreversible trends: the potential collapse of US dollar credit and the rise of the RMB as a global reserve currency [10] - If US Treasury yields exceed 5.8%, it could trigger a forced sell-off by global pension funds amounting to $76 trillion, indicating a severe financial risk [12] - The 20-year US Treasury ETF (TLT) has seen a 45% decline over three years, worse than the 2008 financial crisis, while the IMF reports that the RMB's share in global reserves has doubled to over 7% in three years [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King emphasizes the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][2][3]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that issuing countries often sacrifice some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [5]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit international currency use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [5]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s led to significant economic shocks, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates to meet international demand, resulting in a stock market bubble [7] [12]. Bretton Woods System and Its Collapse - Post-World War II, the dollar became the primary reserve currency, with the Bretton Woods system allowing dollar-to-gold convertibility [10]. - The system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced crises [10]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a significant shift, with the U.S. abandoning gold convertibility, leading to financial turmoil in the 1970s [12][14]. Trump Administration's Attitude Towards the Dollar - The report highlights that the Trump administration's concerns about the dollar's reserve status may pose a greater risk than its tariff policies [17]. - Some members of the administration believe the dollar is "overvalued" and propose measures to redefine its role, including sanctions and encouraging other countries to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [21]. - The potential for the U.S. to withdraw from its role as the world's "lender of last resort" could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in liquidity shortages and financial instability [23]. Future Predictions and Risks - King predicts that if the U.S. neglects international institutions, their credibility will suffer, and the transition to a new reserve currency will be challenging [22][23]. - Emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [24]. - The report warns that if the dollar loses its trust as a reserve currency, it could trigger a massive shift towards gold, reminiscent of the financial turmoil seen in the 1930s and 1970s [23].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King from HSBC highlights the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][22]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that the issuing country often sacrifices some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [3][22]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit a currency's international use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [3]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s caused significant economic turmoil, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates that led to a stock market bubble [3][9]. Bretton Woods System and Dollar Resurgence - Post-World War II, the dollar emerged as the primary reserve currency, established during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the dollar was pegged to gold [6][9]. - The Bretton Woods system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced competitiveness issues and financing crises [6]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, marked by Nixon's policies, led to significant financial instability and volatility in asset prices [9][12]. Trump Administration's Impact on Dollar's Reserve Status - The Trump administration's approach to the dollar's reserve status may pose greater risks than its tariff policies [22]. - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. government views the dollar as "overvalued" and may implement measures to redefine its role as a reserve currency [25]. - Potential measures include sanctions against countries holding dollar assets that conflict with U.S. interests and encouraging other nations to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [25][26]. Future Predictions and Risks - If the U.S. attempts to reclaim control over the dollar, it could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in severe liquidity shortages and potential financial turmoil similar to the 1930s or 1970s [27][30]. - The report predicts that emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [30].