Group 1: Financial Market Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations for government bonds, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market and a supportive monetary policy stance to foster economic recovery and financial stability [4] - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while enhancing the macro-prudential management system to monitor and assess systemic financial risks [4] Group 2: Digital Currency and Virtual Currency Regulation - The PBOC plans to optimize the management system for digital currency and support more commercial banks to operate digital currency services, while continuing to combat domestic virtual currency trading and speculation [5] - Policies to prevent and address risks associated with virtual currency trading remain effective, with ongoing collaboration with law enforcement to maintain economic and financial order [5] Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening Up - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes enhancing the adaptability of financial services to better support sustainable economic development and promote reform and opening up in the financial sector [6] - The administration will focus on strengthening funding support for major projects to boost domestic demand and improve financial services for various sectors, including education and healthcare [7] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to deepening capital market reforms to enhance the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system [8] - The CSRC will promote pilot policies in Beijing, encouraging high-quality financial resources to gather in the capital and support the development of the capital market [9] Group 5: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will coordinate the internationalization of the Renminbi with high-quality capital account opening, ensuring systemic risk prevention while enhancing the foreign exchange policy framework [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is short - term "oscillating bullish", but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was still at a relatively high level but is expected to decline, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating bullish with limited upside [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Monday [3]. 3.2 Important Information - Premier Li Qiang attended the fifth RCEP leaders' meeting and called on all parties to work together to address challenges [3]. - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank and regulatory officials made key statements, including resuming open - market Treasury bond trading, improving the monetary policy framework, and cracking down on virtual currency operations [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 20.843 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.92 million tons [3]. - From October 20th to 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.884 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.548 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.259 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.008 million tons [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month while the shipping volume increased. The previous hot metal daily output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons week - on - week, still at a relatively high level. Steel mills in some areas of Hebei are under production restrictions, and the hot metal output is expected to decline to below 2.3 million tons [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market is short - term oscillating bullish, but due to the expected decline in hot metal output, caution is advised regarding the upside potential. The resistance level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - losses are recommended [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The resumption of treasury bond trading by the central bank is a positive for the bond market, with the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields dropping by over 5bps, and other maturities also seeing significant declines [1][7]. - It is a routine operation. The suspension earlier this year was due to market supply - demand imbalance and risk accumulation, while the resumption indicates regulatory approval of the current bond market interest rate level, limiting the risk of further rate hikes [1][7]. - To maintain the scale of the central bank's treasury bond holdings, it is estimated that the central bank needs to buy between 0.7 - 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds this year [2][8]. - The central bank may choose one of three trading methods, with the first method (buying from large banks) being the most likely to control the impact on the bond market [3][12][13]. - The resumption of treasury bond trading may reduce the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year, but interest rate cuts are still necessary to promote financing growth [4][13]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market will be in a trend - based recovery. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to recover to around 1.65% [4][14]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Reasons for Resuming Treasury Bond Trading - It is a routine operation to implement the deployment of the Central Financial Work Conference, enhancing the synergy between monetary and fiscal policies and ensuring smooth policy transmission and market stability [1][7]. - The suspension earlier this year was due to large supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks in the bond market, while the resumption is because the bond market is running well [1][7]. - To maintain the scale of the central bank's treasury bond holdings. Last year, the central bank bought 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, and the scale has decreased from 2.88 trillion yuan in December 2024 to 2.22 trillion yuan in September this year. It is estimated that 0.7 - 1 trillion yuan needs to be bought this year [2][8]. Possible Trading Methods - The central bank buys from large banks at once or multiple times, and large banks do not immediately buy from the market. This is more of a short - term fund injection, with a limited impact on bond market supply - demand, and a gradual and controllable positive impact later [2][12]. - The central bank gradually entrusts large banks to buy from the market, focusing on the short - end. Considering last year's experience where short - term rates dropped sharply, the possibility of this method is low [3][12]. - The central bank entrusts large banks to buy across the curve, which will lead to a decline in the overall interest rate center, benefiting the long - end more [3][12]. Impact on Monetary Policy and the Bond Market - The resumption of treasury bond trading may reduce the need for a reserve requirement ratio cut this year, but interest rate cuts are still necessary to lower real interest rates and promote financing, especially before the peak financing season next year [4][13]. - Treasury bond trading is more beneficial to the short - end, and the central bank's signal will improve market sentiment, driving down long - term yields. In the fourth quarter, the bond market will recover, and a dumbbell strategy is recommended [4][14].

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank released an alternative model estimating the U.S. unemployment rate at approximately 4.3% for October 2025, consistent with the official rate from August, indicating a moderate cooling of the labor market without signs of sharp deterioration [1] - The model previously estimated the September unemployment rate at 4.34%, slightly lower than August's 4.35%, as the official data was not released due to the government shutdown [1] - The model integrates various private data sources, including job platforms and payroll processing services, showing a high correlation with historical official unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, responding to weakened economic momentum and uncertainty in the current "data vacuum" environment [2] - Analysts suggest that an early rate cut could help mitigate potential shocks if the unemployment rate suddenly rises due to economic downturns, which could significantly alter the labor market landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is identified as a "weak link" among emerging Asian currencies due to domestic economic weakness, narrowing interest rate spreads, and rising capital outflow risks [1] Group 1: Structural Characteristics of the Korean Won - The won is highly sensitive to global and U.S. demand, characterized by a high beta coefficient [1] - It has low interest rate levels and a high degree of capital account openness, making it particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Bank of Korea faces ongoing challenges in monetary policy, needing to balance between maintaining interest rates and potential rate cuts [1] - The current complex external environment complicates the decision-making process for the central bank [1] Group 3: Trade Relations and External Vulnerabilities - Lack of substantial progress in the U.S.-Korea trade agreement poses additional risks, with the U.S. demanding concessions that Korea may find difficult to accept [1] - South Korea's export reliance on key industries such as technology, automotive, and shipbuilding remains heavily dependent on the U.S. market, amplifying the won's external vulnerabilities [1] Group 4: Market Expectations and Inflation Outlook - Despite market expectations for a shift towards monetary easing by the Bank of Korea, caution is advised due to the complex inflation outlook [1] - The combination of a highly open capital account, weakening domestic economic conditions, and low interest rates suggests increased pressure for capital outflows [1] - Even if inflation eases, the central bank may limit the extent of rate cuts to maintain exchange rate stability [1]

Core Points - President Trump is accelerating the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of this year, which is significantly earlier than usual [2] - The five final candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, with Hassett and Warsh seen as frontrunners [4][5] - The new chair is expected to influence monetary policy decisions before officially taking office in mid-May, as they may participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings [3][6] Candidate Details - The final five candidates confirmed by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin include Waller and Bowman, both nominated by Trump, along with Hassett, Warsh, and Rieder [4] - Hassett and Warsh are noted for their close relationships with Trump, which is considered a key factor in their candidacy [4] - Rieder has made a strong impression on Mnuchin during their meetings, adding to his candidacy [4] Implications of Early Appointment - Historically, new Fed chairs are announced three to four months before the current chair's term ends, allowing the incoming chair to shape investor expectations regarding interest rates [6] - The arrangement allows the new chair to vote on monetary policy decisions before their official term begins, providing a structured way to influence policy direction [7] - However, an early announcement may create challenges for the successor, as they could face pressure to either challenge decisions made by their future colleagues or defend the Fed's actions, potentially causing tension with Trump [7]

Core Points - The 2025 Financial Street Forum focused on "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development" and highlighted the importance of establishing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the need for a robust macro-prudential management framework to address systemic financial risks and improve the correlation between macroeconomic operations and financial risks [1][3] - Key initiatives announced include the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, optimization of the digital RMB management system, and measures to support personal credit recovery [2][6] Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC's focus on enhancing the macro-prudential management system includes better coverage of macroeconomic operations, financial market dynamics, systemically important financial institutions, and international economic risks [1][3] - The PBOC plans to strengthen additional supervision for systemically important banks and insurance companies, and will publish a list of such institutions to facilitate targeted regulatory measures [2][5] - The macro-prudential assessment (MPA) will be split into two parts: one focusing on monetary policy execution and the other on macro-prudential and financial stability assessments [3][4] Group 2: Open Market Operations and Digital Currency - The PBOC announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which had been suspended due to market imbalances earlier in the year [6][7] - The resumption aims to stabilize bond market interest rates and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [6][7] - The establishment of a digital RMB management center in Beijing is intended to support the development and operational management of digital currency, with a focus on optimizing its role within the monetary system [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive framework to mitigate systemic financial risks and enhance monetary policy effectiveness [1][5][7]. Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management System - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focusing on four key areas to improve the macro-prudential management system: better coverage of the relationship between macroeconomic operations and financial risks, financial market operations, systemically important financial institutions, and the spillover effects of international economic and financial market risks [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to strengthen additional supervision for systemically important financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, to align regulatory measures with their significance [1][2][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which had been suspended due to market imbalances. This move aims to enhance liquidity management and stabilize the bond market [9][10]. - The central bank's decision to restart government bond trading is seen as a response to increased issuance of government bonds and local government bonds, facilitating better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [9][10]. Group 3: Digital Currency Development - The PBOC is establishing a digital renminbi international operation center and a digital renminbi operation management center in Beijing to promote the development and management of digital currency [12]. - Future efforts will focus on optimizing the digital renminbi management system and enhancing its positioning within the monetary hierarchy, supporting more commercial banks to become operational entities for digital renminbi [12][13].

刚刚召开的党的二十届四中全会提出，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。 10月27日下午，以"创新、变革、重塑下的全球金融发展"为主题的2025金融街论坛年会在京开幕。会上，中国人 民银行行长潘功胜以"中国宏观审慎管理体系的建设实践与未来演进"为题发表演讲。 潘功胜坦言，比较来看，货币政策是中央银行传统职责，制度框架比较清晰成熟；宏观审慎管理全球虽然也有不 少实践，但起步不久，仍处于不断探索和完善的过程中。在构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系方面，人民银行主 要有以下四大重点工作方向：一是更好覆盖宏观经济运行和金融风险的关联性；二是更好覆盖金融市场的运行； 三是更好覆盖系统重要性金融机构；四是更好覆盖国际经济和金融市场风险的外溢影响。 记者了解到，夯实系统重要性金融机构附加监管将是央行完善宏观审慎制度和管理框架的重要内容之一。潘功胜 透露，下一步需要全面评估认定系统重要性银行、保险等金融机构和金融基础设施，在常规监管基础上，实施与 其系统重要性程度相匹配的附加监管措施。 在谈及如何加快构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系时，潘功胜亦强调，要强化系统重要性银行附加监管，充分发 挥逆周期资本缓冲、恢复与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has signaled a commitment to maintaining liquidity stability through increased medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a focus on balancing risk prevention and expectation stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On October 27, the central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations this year [1]. - The central bank also performed a 337.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 348.3 billion yuan for the day [1]. - Analysts expect that the total net MLF injection for October will reach 200 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations and supporting government bond issuance [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Expectations - The central bank's operations are seen as a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies, with significant government bond issuance expected in October, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2]. - The overall liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with short-term liquidity pressures anticipated due to tax payment deadlines, but these are expected to be manageable [3][4]. - Recent trends in the bill market indicate a decline in financing demand, which may alleviate some of the liquidity tension associated with tax periods [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential short-term disturbances, the overall liquidity situation is projected to remain stable across the quarter, with the central bank likely to continue using reverse repurchase operations to mitigate volatility [4][5]. - The resumption of government bond trading operations by the central bank is expected to enhance market confidence and provide additional tools for maintaining market stability [5].