Core Viewpoint - The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence the Fed's independence, future policy direction, and investment strategies, with a focus on potential shifts towards a more dovish stance in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Perspectives - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate, is viewed as a "moderate hawk" who emphasizes inflation control as a core responsibility of the Fed, advocating for a strategy of balance sheet reduction combined with cautious interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Rick Rieder, another candidate, has a contrasting view, suggesting that the Fed should shift its focus from controlling inflation to addressing labor market challenges, proposing a more neutral monetary policy stance [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market anticipates that the Fed's independence will not face fundamental threats, but there is a growing expectation for a more dovish approach in future monetary policy, prompting investors to consider non-U.S. assets [2][8]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence have increased due to public pressure from the U.S. government, which could undermine market confidence in U.S. monetary policy and the financial system [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential for rising inflation expectations could lead to upward pressure on interest rates, which may negatively impact U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sectors sensitive to discount rate changes [9][10]. - The global economic landscape may see a shift towards fiscal expansion, which could improve overall demand and lead to an increase in long-term interest rates, while the Fed's new chair may face pressure to lower rates further [10][11].

美国总统特朗普宣布将于当地时间1月30日上午揭晓新任美联储主席人选，美媒爆料称，特朗普选择的 人选是美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Jerome Powell）。 据《纽约邮报》1月29日报道，特朗普计划提名沃什接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 消息人士告诉该报，特朗普29日会见了沃什，之后致电沃什，询问他是否愿意接受这一职位，沃什欣然 同意。 这些要求匿名的知情人士提醒说，在特朗普正式宣布之前，人选尚未最终确定。 一位知情人士称，沃什曾任美联储理事，他于29日访问了白宫。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。 报道称，8年前，特朗普在选择鲍威尔之前，曾考虑过沃什担任美联储主席。现年55岁的沃什被认为是 利率鹰派，这能缓解人们对他会在美联储独立性上妥协的担忧。但沃什和特朗普一样，也一直强烈批评 鲍威尔在拜登执政期间过度印钞，从而加剧了通货膨胀。 与此同时，据彭博社1月29日报道，知情人士透露，特朗普政府正准备提名沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。 特朗普当地时间1月29日表示，他计划于30日上午宣布其对美联储主席人选的提名。 沃什是美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven status and supportive monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CHF/USD exchange rate was 1.3043, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3522% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 2.5% [1]. - The USD/CHF rate fell below 0.7640, marking a 176-month low, highlighting the CHF's strong position in the currency market [1]. - The CHF's performance aligns with historical stability during periods of market turmoil, reinforcing its role as a core safe-haven currency [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The SNB maintained its policy rate at 0% during the December 2025 monetary policy meeting, with expectations to keep it unchanged until at least the second half of 2027 [1][2]. - The SNB's commitment to a stable monetary policy supports key export industries like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, alleviating pressures from a strong currency [2]. - The SNB retains the option for regular foreign exchange interventions to manage CHF fluctuations, aiming to balance currency strength with economic stability [2][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year rate of 0.1% in December 2025, indicating a controlled inflation environment that aligns with the SNB's policy [2]. - The SNB forecasts average inflation of approximately 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for both 2026 and 2027, suggesting no need for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [2]. - The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 1%-1.5% in 2025 and around 1.5% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and a stable job market [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Global risk sentiment, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, has increased demand for the CHF as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The potential for a slowdown in external demand due to rising global economic uncertainties poses a risk to Switzerland's export-driven economy, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the CHF, expecting it to remain strong amid ongoing safe-haven demand and supportive policies, with potential fluctuations based on external economic conditions [5].

截至2026年1月30日，加元兑美元报0.7389，较前一交易日微跌0.3249%，当日开盘0.7413，盘中最高触 及0.7419，最低下探至0.7383，延续近期震荡上行态势。同期美元兑加元下跌0.5%，跌至1.3482的16个 月低点，凸显加元强势格局。开年以来，加元依托加拿大央行政策稳健、美元走弱的双重支撑持续回 暖，累计涨幅超1.4%，成为汇市中表现稳健的品种，当前多空博弈围绕0.74关口展开，核心聚焦加央行 政策动向、美加贸易局势及全球风险偏好变动。 加拿大央行(加央行)的稳健货币政策是支撑加元走强的核心内生动力。1月28日，加央行宣布将基准利 率维持在2.25%不变，符合市场普遍预期，这也是其延续当前利率水平的阶段性决策，凸显对经济不确 定性的审慎态度。行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆在新闻发布会上七次提及"不确定性"，明确当前基准利率处于适 当水平，但需密切监测各类风险，相较于此前表述，进一步强化了对经济前景的谨慎立场。 此次政策坚守贴合加拿大经济复苏节奏与通胀格局，2025年加拿大通胀率为2.1%，预计未来一段时间 将维持在接近2%的目标水平，无需通过激进货币政策调控。市场普遍解读，加央行短期内既不会降息 ...

Core Insights - Tokyo's CPI has declined for two consecutive months, with energy prices falling significantly and food price increases slowing down, while service prices continue to rise moderately [1][9] - The core CPI stands at 2.0%, exactly at the central bank's target, which may lead to a more cautious approach from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes [1][9] Inflation Trends - January's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased by 2.0%, below the expected 2.2% and down from the previous 2.3% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose by 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and the previous 2.6% [4] - The overall Tokyo CPI increased by 1.5%, below the expected 1.7% and the previous 2% [4] - The decline in CPI indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure across Japan [4][10] Energy Price Impact - Energy prices have significantly contributed to the inflation slowdown, with gasoline prices dropping by 14.8% year-on-year, a substantial increase from the previous month's decline of 6.4% [5] - Overall energy prices fell by 4.2%, contributing negatively to inflation by 0.22 percentage points [5] - Month-on-month data shows gasoline prices decreased by 4.8%, electricity prices fell by 0.1%, and city gas prices dropped by 0.6% [5] Food Price Trends - Food price increases have continued to slow, with prices (excluding fresh food) rising by 5.6% in January, down from 6.2% the previous month [6] - The contribution of food prices to overall inflation decreased from 1.43 percentage points to 1.30 percentage points [6] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 13.2%, with cabbage prices plummeting by 64.4% and fresh fruit prices down by 10.8% [7] Service Price Stability - Service prices have continued to support inflation, with residential rents increasing by 1.5%, and private rents rising by 2.1%, contributing 0.08 percentage points to overall inflation [8] - Communication costs rose by 6.4%, driven by an 11.0% increase in mobile communication fees, contributing 0.15 percentage points to inflation [8] - Education and entertainment service prices increased by 2.2%, with accommodation costs rising by 6.0%, although this was a slowdown from the previous month's 7.8% [8] Central Bank Policy Implications - The comprehensive slowdown in Tokyo's inflation data may influence the Bank of Japan's policy stance, with the core inflation rate at the target level but showing a cooling trend [9] - Seasonally adjusted month-on-month data indicates that CPI (excluding fresh food) remained flat compared to the previous month, suggesting weakened short-term inflation momentum [9] - The Tokyo CPI is viewed as a leading indicator for national inflation, with the trends expected to be confirmed in upcoming national data releases [10]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月报 宏观 全球货币分化，国内宏观强韧性 核心观点 美国方面，制造业与服务业继续分化，服务业强韧性支撑美国 宏观基本面。通胀表现温和，就业数据也有所修复，美联储降息节 奏放缓，美债收益率有所回升。后续主要关注就业数据的持续改善 情况以及特朗普对美联储的政治施压情况。欧洲方面，欧元区核心 通胀指标与 2%的目标一致，欧洲央行降息节奏放缓，未来需要重点 关注内部欧洲地区薪资增速以及外部贸易与地缘政治局势的情况。 日本方面，随着通胀增速放缓，1 月份日本央行宣布维持政策利率 不变，但上调了中长期通胀预测。不过日本政府的财政扩张政策倾 向以及财政可持续性担忧也在持续推升日债收益率。日本央行加息 放缓很大程度上是为了保持债市稳定，但是相应地日元汇率端将明 显承压，后续需要关注日本官方对日元的干预情况 12 月宏观经济数据呈现较强韧性：制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间， CPI 温和回升，PPI 跌幅收窄，新增企业信贷数据有所改善。不过内 需有效需求不足的问题仍存，具体表现在居民端，新增居民信贷数 据表现较弱。1 月 15 ...

下任美联储主席人选即将公布。 当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储主席人选时说，"明天 上午"。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 从去年下半年以来，下任美联储主席的头号人选在以下四人间多次变化，他们分别是白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、贝莱德集团全球固定收益 首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。 在线博彩网站Polymarket最新数据显示，沃什获得提名的概率飙升至80%，与其他候选人明显拉开距 离，而最近的头号人选里德获得提名的概率降至10%。 沃什出生于1970年4月，他本科毕业于斯坦福大学，他是哈佛大学的法学博士。他目前是斯坦·德鲁肯米 勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙人、斯坦福大学访问学者。德鲁肯米勒是美国传奇投资人，他与美国财政 部长贝森特都曾在索罗斯基金担任要职。沃什的人脉关系还包括知名投资人彼得・蒂尔、风险投资家马 克・安德森。蒂尔也是最早公开支持特朗普的硅谷创投大佬之一。此外，沃什的夫人Jane Lauder是雅诗 兰黛的继承人之一。 沃什曾供 ...

里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他打算在下周宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选，届时，关于鲍威尔将于5 月卸任后由谁领导美国央行的猜测日益甚嚣尘上。 "我们将宣布美联储主席人选，我认为，这将是一个能做好工作的人，"特朗普在今年的首次内阁会议上 表示，重申了他关于大幅降低利率的一贯主张。 美联储在2025年降息三次，在周三结束为期两天的政策会议，维持基准利率在3.50%·3.75%区间不变。 特朗普表示，利率应降低两到三个百分点，这一水平在历史上与经济停滞或衰退是一致的。 美国商务部的数据显示，第三季度年化经济增长率为4.4%。 在特朗普政府长达数月的正式物色鲍威尔继任者的过程中，人们看到总统倾向于不同的候选人，即使他 已经加大了对美联储决策施加影响的力度，而美联储不受政治压力的独立性被视为其控制通胀能力的关 键。 近几个月来，特朗普曾试图在一起已提交最高法院的案件中解雇一名美联储理事，他的司法部也对鲍威 尔就建筑翻新发表的言论展开了刑事调查，美联储主席称此举是在货币政策问题上向他施压的"借口"。 特朗普候选名单上的四位候选人 里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周 ...

尽管存在反对票，但官方表述并未释放出明确的宽松信号。政策声明继续强调经济活动保持稳健扩张，就业市场虽降温但并未恶化，通胀仍被描述为略高于 目标。这种措辞组合显示，多数决策者仍希望通过时间换取更多确定性，而非在数据尚未形成一致指向前贸然转向。FXTRADING分析认为，当前美联储 更像是在为未来政策转向做铺垫，而非立即启动行动，短期内政策不确定性主要体现在节奏而非方向。 加拿大央行维持中性立场 新西兰年末贸易回暖 新西兰12 月商品进出口规模同比均实现约 15% 的增长，使得当月录得约 5200 万新西兰元的贸易顺差，虽属温和水平，但明显优于市场此前的保守预期。 从结构上看，出口与进口同步扩张，反映出年末阶段无论是外部需求还是国内吸纳能力，均处于相对活跃状态。 从出口去向看，主要贸易伙伴贡献较为均衡。对澳大利亚和欧盟的出口增幅尤为突出，增速均达到两位数，显示区域贸易关系持续升温。与此同时，对美国 和日本的出口亦保持正增长，尽管幅度存在差异，但整体表明新西兰出口并未对单一市场形成过度依赖。进口方面，来自澳大利亚与欧盟的商品流入明显增 加，而来自美国的进口出现回落，在一定程度上缓和了进口扩张对贸易余额的挤压。FXT ...

美联储主席鲍威尔强调政策"无预定路线"，委员会投票结果显示，两名官员投下了反对票，主张应降息25个基点。 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储2026年首次议息会议决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变 这一决定标志着美联储终结了自2025年9月以来的"三连降"，符合市场此前超过95%的预期 值得注意的是，美联储在本次声明中将经济增长描述从"温和"上调至"稳健" 美联储的决定终结了自2025年下半年开始的降息周期。在此之前，美联储已在2025年连续三次降息，总幅度达75个基点 2025年的最后一次降息发生在12月，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75% 在本次会议声明中，美联储对经济的描述从"温和"上调至"稳健" 美联储表示，现有指标表明，经济活动正以"稳健速度扩张"，失业率趋于稳定，通胀水平"仍然略显偏高" 有分析指出，通胀仍然是美联储决策的关键考量。美联储在声明中删除了去年12月提到的"通胀已朝着2%目标取得进展"的表述，仅保留了"通胀依然略显偏 高"的描述 美联储内部的分歧在本次会议上也显露无遗。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·米兰投下反对票，主张在本次会议上降息25个基点 ...