Group 1: Market Insights - The defensive dividend assets in the stock market may become a core safe haven for funds amid the "tariff storm" [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening as the Trump administration proposes to replace short-term bonds with 100-year zero-coupon bonds [3][18] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - Under the current tariff situation, risk assets are experiencing significant declines, while safe-haven assets are gaining, with the domestic 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.6% [3] - Chinese assets are expected to show resilience compared to global markets in the short term, with opportunities outweighing risks if policy responses are appropriate [4] - The consumer and investment sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand policies, presenting short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have seen a rise of 3.18% due to increased domestic prices following U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports [10] - The power equipment and new energy sectors are underperforming due to concerns over profit impacts from trade conflicts [10] Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - The monetary policy is expected to continue pushing nominal interest rates down, with potential acceleration in easing measures in the second quarter [16] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of further declines in bond yields as the economic impact of tariffs unfolds [16] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - A neutral to defensive allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing the importance of safe-haven assets like bonds and gold [20] - The A-share market should consider a combination of dividend/value and technology stocks in a barbell strategy, while being cautious of sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [20]

以下文章来源于字母榜 ，作者彦飞 字母榜 . 让未来不止于大 来源|字母榜 作者|彦飞 编辑|王靖 真正问题是，特斯拉美国工厂大规模使用其他国家供应商的零部件，S3XY、Cybertruck等车型均不例外； 特朗普政府挥出的关税重拳，结结实实 打在了马斯克和特斯拉身上。 与中国工厂相比，特斯拉美国工厂的供应链本土化程度低得多。美国越筑越高的关税壁垒，不可避免地推升特斯拉美国工厂的生产成本，并反映在 终端售价上，进而拖累特斯拉在美国这一全球最大市场的销量。 特朗普搬起了石头，却砸了马斯克的脚。 4月11日，特斯拉中国官网显示，两款进口纯电车型Model S和Model X已经无法订购。 一位特斯拉一线销售员工向字母榜（ID: wujicaijing）确认了这一消息。她表示，目前进口两款车会被征收高额关税，导致零售价格过高，因此特 斯拉下架了Model S/X的车辆定制服务，消费者只能购买已经完成进口清关的现车。 上述人士透露，目前Model S/X的现车极为紧俏。截至4月11日上午，Model X全国仅有的7辆现车已被预订一空；Model S同样车源紧张，红色 版本全国仅有5辆，很可能一天内全部售罄。 按照特斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariff policy on global markets and China's response, highlighting the stabilization of the A-share market through various measures taken by the government and market participants [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policy - Trump's announcement of a minimum 10% tariff on global imports and specific rates on countries like China (34%) and the EU (20%) has led to significant declines in global asset prices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 9.9% and 11.4% respectively [2][3]. - The A-share market experienced a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 7.3% on April 7, but showed signs of recovery with a 1.6% increase on April 8 due to intervention from various funds [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Institutional Response - The "national team" entered the market to stabilize it, with the Central Huijin announcing increased purchases of ETF funds, which saw a significant rise in trading volume, indicating strong demand [3][4]. - Regulatory bodies provided support by adjusting insurance fund investment ratios, allowing for greater equity asset allocation, which enhances market stability [3][4]. Group 3: Market Participants' Actions - Over 30 listed companies initiated stock buybacks, totaling over 15 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in their financial health and future prospects [4]. - The combination of government intervention, regulatory adjustments, and proactive measures from market participants demonstrates a collaborative effort to stabilize the market [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The article expresses a long-term positive outlook for the Chinese capital market, emphasizing that the current macroeconomic environment is more favorable compared to 2018, with a focus on internal demand and technological advancements [10][12]. - The diversification of export structures and the reduced reliance on the U.S. market (from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024) suggests that external shocks will have a limited impact on the overall economy [13]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Future investment opportunities may include sectors such as semiconductors and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), which are expected to rebound due to domestic policy support and a focus on self-sufficiency [14]. - The food and beverage sector is likely to perform well due to low external dependency and increased domestic consumption support [15]. - Defensive sectors like banking and utilities are recommended for their high dividend yields and resilience during market downturns, with current yields around 6% compared to a 10-year government bond yield of 1.6% [15].

Core Insights - The manufacturing landscape is evolving from OEM/ODM models to vertical integration due to increasing supply chain uncertainties and rapid market changes [1][4][5] Group 1: OEM/ODM Models - OEM and ODM models have been widely adopted in the context of globalization, allowing manufacturers to outsource production to specialized suppliers, thus optimizing efficiency [1] - These models have led to significant cost savings by establishing production bases in low-labor-cost countries, particularly after China's entry into the WTO [1] - However, the reliance on outsourcing has exposed vulnerabilities, such as quality control issues and instability due to production delays and geopolitical tensions [4] Group 2: Vertical Integration - Companies like Tesla and SpaceX have shifted towards vertical integration, controlling key supply chain elements to enhance quality, accelerate innovation, and scale production without external constraints [2] - Apple transitioned from relying on Intel for processors to producing its own M-series chips, gaining unprecedented control over hardware and software integration [3] - Amazon has invested heavily in building its logistics and distribution infrastructure, moving away from third-party carriers to create a self-sufficient network [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - The trend towards vertical integration is evident across various sectors, including traditional manufacturing, where companies like BYD and major automakers are developing their own critical components [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of supply chain security, leading to a fragmented global trade environment that further exposed the weaknesses of the OEM/ODM model [4] - The semiconductor shortage during the pandemic resulted in over 10 million vehicles being cut from production in the automotive industry, illustrating the risks associated with over-reliance on external suppliers [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Vertical integration, while requiring significant investment and management capabilities, positions companies to thrive in competitive markets by ensuring quality and fostering innovation [5] - The shift from OEM/ODM to vertical integration is seen as a necessary evolution in response to market demands for speed, precision, and supply chain stability [5] - Embracing vertical integration is viewed as a key strategy for companies aiming to lead their industries in the future [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in light of intensified US-China trade tensions and their impact on market dynamics. It suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a diversified portfolio strategy to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of short-term exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a need for caution and a focus on low volatility, dividend, value, and quality factors [2]. - The recent surge in the Hang Seng Index basis, which exceeded 200 points, is a rare occurrence, having only happened 13 times since 2013. Historical data suggests that the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to corporate earnings, with PPI (Producer Price Index) being a key indicator to track [2][8]. - The article notes that the Chinese government has taken significant measures to support the capital market amid escalating trade tensions, which positively influenced market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a three-pronged approach for identifying optimal investment opportunities during periods of market volatility: (1) observing signs of easing trade tensions, (2) identifying undervalued assets, and (3) recognizing liquidity issues that may lead to temporary market dislocations [3]. - A long-term strategy is recommended, focusing on a "global barbell strategy" that balances risk and return across various asset classes, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the implications of a shifting global order [4]. - The article suggests maintaining a defensive asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of tracking US dollar liquidity as a leading indicator for market movements [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The article provides a detailed asset allocation model under the "All Weather Strategy," which includes varying proportions for different risk preferences, highlighting the importance of adjusting allocations based on market conditions [6]. - The model suggests a significant allocation to Chinese government bonds and convertible bonds, reflecting a preference for lower-risk assets in uncertain market conditions [6]. - The allocation percentages for various assets are tailored to different risk appetites, with specific adjustments made for volatility and correlation among asset classes [6].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言：我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低 波、股息、价值、质量因子。 我们在 25.4.8《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对》 提示中期投资者需要深刻解读世界秩序重塑的方向和权衡各类资产的性价比。 ● 中美贸易摩擦加剧中，中国政府采取了有力的维护资本市场的举措，对周二的市场产生了较好的提振作用。 而从美国与各国磋商贸易条件进展看，不排除特朗普延期 关税的可能。 ● 中国资产的风险偏好冲击在本周一达到了较为极端的水平。 恒指基差突破200点是历史罕见现象，2013年至今只出现过13次，本轮对等关税冲击下，恒指基差突破近 210点。复盘历史13次的经验，极端贴水（现货价格远高于期货）后港股市场的表现由企业盈利决定（PPI同比是较好的跟踪指标）：PPI回升—>港股反弹；PPI回落—> 港股回落。PPI与中美贸易条件的演变息息相关，需要继续跟踪关税问题的进展。 ● 全球资本市场目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on global assets and the shift from a "great moderation" to a "great volatility" in the global economy, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [3][4]. Short-term Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, Swiss francs, gold, and dividend stocks before the implementation of tariffs on April 9 [4]. - Current market indicators suggest a decline in risk appetite, and liquidity metrics should be closely monitored for potential trading opportunities [4]. - Specific asset class assessments indicate that global equities and commodities remain under pressure, while U.S. equities are weak and U.S. Treasuries are strong, reflecting a preference for safety over inflation concerns [4]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - The tariffs reinforce three underlying logics of a new investment paradigm: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [5]. - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation of safe-haven assets to manage risk and return effectively, as the global economic landscape continues to evolve [5]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "All Weather Strategy" outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with a notable emphasis on Chinese government bonds and gold across varying risk profiles [7]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 8.51% in COMEX gold, while for high-risk preference, it suggests 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 11.75% in gold [7].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 我们在25.2.28 《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示，港股周线6连阳后，短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆。 从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨，反而应关注落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子。 ● 部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。 疫情以来，全球从"大缓和"走 向"大波动"，G2在生产贸易（中国生产国VS美国消费国）、债务（中国私人高VS美国政府高）失衡突出，特朗 普政府企图通过非常规手段化解全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑不可逆。 ● 特朗普关税对全球资产的影响？ 关税一阶段定价征税国家的"通胀效应"+被征税国家的"需求收缩效应"、二阶 段定价被征税国家的应对措施（货币财政）。 ● 短期而言：在4.9（对等关税生效日期）前，以避险资产（美债&中债、瑞郎、黄金、红利等）为宜。 当前关键 问题除了关注各国之间的贸易谈判，在金融市场上还要关注基本面的问题是否会转换成流动性的问题。当前， （VIX、AAII熊牛价差、BNP全球风险溢价等指标显示）风险偏好下 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on both the U.S. and global capital markets, highlighting the uncertainty it brings [2][5][6] - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has implemented a series of tariffs on various trade partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 49% depending on the country [3][4] - The article emphasizes the historical context of globalization and its effects on economic structures, noting that globalization has significantly benefited countries like China while disadvantaging others like Japan and Europe [9][11] Group 2 - The article outlines the concept of disruptive innovation, explaining how it challenges existing market structures and creates new opportunities for growth [17][20] - It identifies the winners and losers of disruptive innovation, where disruptors gain market share and consumer benefits, while traditional companies face declining profitability and potential layoffs [20][22] - The article also discusses the macro-level changes brought about by disruptive innovation, particularly in sectors like healthcare, where traditional inefficiencies persist despite attempts at disruption [22] Group 3 - The article analyzes market drivers, particularly interest rates and stock risk premiums, and their influence on investment decisions in the context of the current economic climate [24][25] - It highlights the importance of revenue growth and operating profit margins for companies, particularly in relation to their exposure to international markets amid tariff uncertainties [26][27] - The article concludes that political and macroeconomic factors will increasingly influence company valuations, necessitating a shift in how investors assess potential returns [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's new tariff policies, highlighting the potential for increased trade tensions and their impact on global supply chains and economies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Their Nature - Trump's tariffs are characterized as a political weapon rather than a mere economic tool, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [3][4]. - The tariffs imposed on China could reach a staggering 34%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic relations [2][4]. - The overall tariff levels for U.S. imports could rise to between 54% and 64%, surpassing previous expectations and indicating a more aggressive stance compared to past trade conflicts [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Reactions - The expected annual revenue from the tariffs could range from $349.9 billion to $503.5 billion, indicating a significant financial motive behind the policy [13]. - The tariffs are likely to have a detrimental effect on the U.S. economy, potentially reducing GDP by 0.2% to 1.5% and causing a decline in household incomes [15][19]. - China's export trade is expected to face substantial pressure, with the average tariff level reaching unprecedented heights, which may lead to a short-term economic slowdown [16][22]. Group 3: Strategic Implications and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current trade conflict may signal the end of the third era of globalization, with long-term implications for global economic structures [10][19]. - The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a spiral of escalating tariffs [9][10]. - The article emphasizes the need for strategic adjustments in response to these developments, advocating for a focus on domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency as pathways to resilience [24][27].