| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...

有色金属专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 特朗普 2.0 政策通过对等关税引发通胀预期和经济滞涨，地缘政治风险 增加避险需求，共同推高黄金价格，并加剧全球经济压力。 2025 年前三季度全球黄金供需增速均为 3%，但结构变化显著：金饰品 需求因高金价下降，央行购金放缓，ETF 投资成为主要支撑。 黄金税收新政区分投资性和非投资性用途，提高首饰税负，导致国内首 饰店报价高于盘面价格，预计将减少四季度及明年一季度首饰消费。 白银市场连续五年供不应求，加上 ETF 增量，预计今年是连续第七年供 不应求，库存流动性不足支撑银价上涨，基本面强劲，与黄金的金融属 性形成对比。 博巴和铂金均供不应求，但博巴供需紧张有所缓解，铂金更为严重。博 巴主要用于传统汽车，铂金更多应用于新能源汽车，铂金需求多元化， 更具向上弹性。 美国中期选举前，政府可能采取宽松货币和财政政策，包括降息、停止 缩表、减税等，以刺激经济，可能推高黄金价格。 美联储货币政策对黄金价格的影响减弱，地缘政治风险、美国国债问题 和美元信用下降等因素使得黄金定价逻辑多元化，预计 2026 年金价运 行区间可能在 3,900 到 4,800 美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [4]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, with a current price of 4143.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 212 CNY/ton (8.06%) and a year-on-year drop of 363 CNY/ton (4.87%) [9][10]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, showing a month-on-month decrease of 460 million cubic meters (1.30%) but a year-on-year increase of 472 million cubic meters (1.37%) [2][18]. - European natural gas imports in November increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 176,299.99 million cubic meters, which is a month-on-month increase of 7,244.29 million cubic meters (4.29%) and a year-on-year increase of 12,477.26 million cubic meters (7.62%) [3][27]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased to 4143.00 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decline of 8.06% and a year-on-year decline of 4.87% [9][10]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures price has decreased to 4.04 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.94% [9][10]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in November was 589,350.00 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,090.00 tons (2.01%) [2][18]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.30% but a year-on-year increase of 1.37% [2][18]. Inventory - As of December 12, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory was 179,263.00 thousand barrels, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16,782.00 thousand barrels (8.56%) but a year-on-year increase of 24,727 thousand barrels (16.00%) [20][23]. - European natural gas inventory as of December 15 was 79.129 billion kWh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 14.488 billion kWh (15.48%) and a year-on-year decrease of 10.299 billion kWh (11.52%) [22][25]. Imports and Exports - In November, European imports of natural gas increased to 176,299.99 million cubic meters, a month-on-month increase of 4.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [3][27]. - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe in November were 10,745.70 million cubic meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 46.04% [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose to a high level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.63%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 8.12%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.99% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk - aversion sentiment from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine has increased [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: International prices (Comex Gold active contract and London Gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4515.00 per ounce, up 0.77% from the previous day and 4.22% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex Gold and Gold T + D increased, while the position of Shanghai Gold main contract decreased. In terms of inventory, the LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased slightly [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: International prices (Comex Silver active contract and London Silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. For example, the Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,609 yuan per kilogram, up 7.10% from the previous day and 13.52% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The position of Shanghai Silver main contract increased, while the positions of Comex Silver and Silver T + D decreased. The total visible inventory increased slightly [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Platinum active contract and London Platinum) and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on GQEX and Platinum on SGE) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2343.20 per ounce, up 9.04% from the previous day and 25.02% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Palladium active contract and London Palladium) and domestic prices (Palladium main contract on GQEX) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1964.00 per ounce, up 5.56% from the previous day and 18.14% from the previous week [10]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased, and the inventory remained basically unchanged [10]. Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets remained unchanged at $66077.29 billion [12]. - Inflation data: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, the core CPI was 2.60%, etc. [14]. - Economic growth data: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.30% [14]. - Labor market data: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, and the non - farm payrolls monthly change was 6.40 million [14]. - Other data: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 68.60%, and the VIX index decreased by 15.05% [15]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided. For example, in January 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the range of 350 - 375 is 86.7% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The pricing of risk assets has become significantly sensitive to geopolitical events and policy expectations as global market liquidity decreases during the holiday season, with gold prices breaking the $4500 mark for the first time, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market will close early on Christmas Eve and remain closed on Christmas Day, leading to reduced trading activity in Europe and Asia, which contributes to lower overall transaction depth [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4525 during Asian trading but later consolidated around $4500, with a weekly increase of nearly 3.5%, outperforming other major asset classes [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela over oil transport issues, which have raised concerns about regional stability and potential energy supply disruptions [2]. - The market's reaction to geopolitical events is amplified due to lower participation ahead of the holidays, leading to a swift shift towards safer assets like gold [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data, including a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.3%, has not diminished the mid-term appeal of gold, as the market remains cautious about the dollar's strength despite the positive economic indicators [2][3]. - The market continues to expect the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle in 2026, maintaining low policy rate expectations that reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2][4]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - As gold prices reach historical highs, some short-term investors are taking profits, leading to slight price corrections, but the overall downward space for gold remains constrained by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and discussions around the Fed's policy independence [3]. - The current trading environment for gold is characterized by high volatility and potential for amplified price movements due to low liquidity, suggesting a cautious approach to position sizing and trend-following strategies [3][4].

12月24日午后，LME三个月期铜创下每吨12159美元的历史新高，年内累计上涨超37%，这一关键工业金属有望创下自2009年超15年来最大年度涨幅。 铜概念股业绩集体增长 据证券时报统计，A股中属于铜板块的上市公司共有16家，12月以来普遍上涨，截至12月23日，平均涨幅达到8.58%，金诚信（603979）、白银有色 （601212）、洛阳钼业（603993）等7股累计涨幅超过10%。 从业绩来看，铜板块个股前三季度合计实现归母净利润690.05亿元，同比增长46.18%，其中鹏欣资源（600490）扭亏为盈，白银有色同比减亏，楚江新材 （002171）、金田股份（601609）、洛阳钼业等12股归母净利润实现同比增长。 英大期货指出，地缘政治风险对铜价或有所提振。美联储威廉姆斯讲话进一步强化了市场对美联储短期暂停降息的预期。日前，中国铜冶炼厂代表与智 利矿业巨头安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费为零，凸显矿端供应紧张格局，叠加美国持续虹吸全球电解铜，增加非美地区铜供应 紧张担忧，持续利好铜价。 AI浪潮下的铜需求刚性增长 在全球AI算力基建狂飙突进的浪潮下，数据中心正成 ...

前言：富格林立足大中华市场合规运营近16年来，依靠领跑行业的资深分析经验和雄厚企业实力，斩获亚洲500强名企美誉，完善的市场分析 师专家团队坚持科学引导为广大投资者构建可信高效操作套路，运筹帷幄金市获利先机。周三(12月24日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格短线突然暴 涨，金价最高触及4525美元/盎司。尽管在强于预期的美国GDP数据公布后，金价自日内高位明显回落，但在假期缩短的交易周中，避险情绪 依然占据主导，主要源于美国与委内瑞拉之间不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势。投资者可即时线上联系富格林专家老师，合规获取即时策略市况 分析及可信盈利套路指导。 富格林资深分析师指出，在当前环境下黄金的需求驱动更加多元且流动。一方面，黄金继续扮演货币贬值对冲工具的角色，用于抵御通胀或货 币购买力下降。另一方面，它仍是美元资产的竞争产品。央行与投资者持续强劲的黄金需求预计仍将持续，成为支持黄金价格的核心要素。各 国央行增加实物黄金储备，以对冲经济不确定性、降低对美元的依赖并实现投资组合多元化。世界黄金协会数据显示，除5月外今年黄金ETF 总持仓量每个月都在增加。与此同时，国际社会对黄金在地缘政治和金融体系中的作用愈发关注，甚至在一定程 ...

12月24日，国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）继续涨停封板，继前两个交易日封板后实现连续 三个交易日涨停。截至发稿，该基金场内价格报3.116元，较最新公布的A类份额净值溢价率高达 68.2%，创下阶段新高。 作为国内公募市场唯一投资白银期货的产品，稀缺性叠加市场情绪推动大量资金涌入二级市场，直接导 致场内价格与基金净值严重背离，溢价率持续攀升。自11月25日启动上涨行情以来，该基金场内价格累 计涨幅已达127%，仅用21个交易日便实现翻倍，全年涨幅甚至高达222.6%。 然而，与其相对应的场外份额年内收益为104.47%，二者出现了相差118个百分点的溢价鸿沟，场内炒 作情绪可见一斑。 针对这一情况，国投瑞银基金近期密集发布风险提示公告。据统计，12月以来该公司已就国投白银LOF 发布15次相关风险提示，并多次采取临时停牌措施。 除此之外，该基金公司还通过调整申购限额的方式调控资金涌入节奏。12月22日，国投瑞银基金发布公 告明确将国投白银LOF的A类基金份额申购金额上限从100元提高至500元，C类份额从1000元降至500 元。12月23日晚，公司再次发布公告称将国投白银LOF的C类份额上限收紧至 ...

12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 从之后的走势看，昨日周二亚盘开盘后，黄金直接站稳4450美元继续上涨，至4497美元遇阻，此后亚欧 盘金价多次向上试探，均未能突破4500美元整数位置附近压制，美盘开盘后，黄金再次涨至4497美元遇 阻后，走势短线跳水，刷新日低至4430美元，不过金价很快企稳反弹，继续向上试探，临近收盘时刷新 历史新高至4499美元。总体来看，黄金在突破周一高点4449美元后，向上试探4500美元整数位置遇阻， 基本符合我们预期。 Wolfinan ...

黑海地区供应风险与美国产区干旱天气形成共振，为全球小麦市场注入强劲上涨动力。 受黑海地区供应风险升级与美国产区天气不确定性的双重驱动，芝加哥小麦期货价格周二再度走高，已连续 五个交易日上涨，正迈向自4月以来持续时间最长的反弹行情。 据媒体报道，俄乌局势持续，已导致黑海敖德萨地区的能源及港口设施遭到破坏，进一步加剧了市场对作为 全球主要出口地的该地区粮食和食用油供应中断的担忧。 黑海供应链持续承压、美国产区面临持续干热 推动本轮价格上涨的主要因素，是市场对黑海地区出口中断的担忧再度升温。紧张局势的加剧不仅导致基础 设施受损，更直接冲击了农产品的出口物流。 乌克兰谷物协会称，针对关键基础设施的持续攻击以及电力短缺问题，导致铁路和港口无法满负荷运转，这 对粮食外运能力构成了实质性制约。 在供应风险之外，作为另一主要产区的美国，其气候条件也在恶化。美国农业部在周二的报告中强调，干燥 的天气伴随着创纪录的温暖气温，正覆盖中部和南部平原。 气象预报机构Vaisala在报告中指出，预计这种干燥状况本周仍将持续，维持相关种植区的水分短缺状态。这 一天气展望为市场看涨情绪提供了额外的基本面支撑。 分析师认为，地缘政治风险和天气 ...