Group 1 - The article provides an authoritative interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting discussions among top experts on current economic hotspots, policy directions, growth paths, and reform priorities for China's economic development from 2025 to 2026 [2][3] - Key speakers include prominent figures such as Liu Fengliang, Zou Jingxian, Wang Yiming, Mao Zhenhua, Shen Jianguang, Zhang Xiaojing, and Li Daokui, who are all influential in the field of macroeconomics [3] Group 2 - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook indicates that monetary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will continue to move towards neutral interest rates, with geopolitical risks gradually receding, leading to lower global economic uncertainty compared to 2025 [5][6] - The discussion emphasizes that the US will focus on balancing policy, technology, and Federal Reserve actions, while Europe is expected to experience moderate recovery and Japan will face significant challenges [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses strategies for global asset allocation in 2026, focusing on selecting high-cost performance assets across various markets, including US stocks, US bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [8] - It highlights the importance of balancing risk and return while identifying structural opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 4 - The textile and apparel industry strategy for 2026 is outlined, focusing on global consumption trends, export recovery, and the selection of stable growth leaders amid differentiated domestic demand [11] - Key insights include understanding demand elasticity and performance recovery in the textile and apparel sector [11] Group 5 - The article presents an investment map for the pharmaceutical sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, emphasizing the high potential of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies [13] - It suggests a dual approach focusing on "innovation-led" and "steady growth" strategies, with a particular interest in innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generic drugs [13] - Notably, 42.86% of the companies in the pharmaceutical sector are classified as national-level "little giants," indicating a strong presence of specialized firms [13]

Oil Market - Crude oil prices have risen for five consecutive days, with WTI increasing by 0.6% to settle above $58 per barrel, while Brent surpassed $62 per barrel. Investors are weighing the impact of the U.S. crackdown on Venezuelan oil exports against weak demand [2][10] - The U.S. has inspected one oil tanker, seized another, and is pursuing a third near Venezuela to pressure the Maduro government. Venezuela's oil exports account for less than 1% of global supply, but the revenue is crucial for the Maduro administration [3][11] - WTI has dropped approximately 19% this year, heading towards its largest annual decline since 2020. Market supply is expected to remain ample even if Venezuelan exports decrease significantly in the short term [4][12] Base Metals - Copper prices have surpassed $12,000 per ton for the first time, driven by mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs. Copper rose over 35% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 2009 [5][13] - The possibility of U.S. tariffs on copper has been a key factor in driving prices up, with a surge in U.S. imports forcing manufacturers in other regions to compete for supply [14] Precious Metals - Gold and silver have reached record highs, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. Silver rose 3.6% to surpass $70 per ounce, while gold approached $4,500 per ounce [7][16] - The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset has increased amid escalating geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Venezuela [7][16]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [2][7] Geopolitical Factors - The recent increase in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, where the U.S. has intensified pressure on President Nicolás Maduro's government [2][7] - Ahmad Assiri from Pepperstone Group noted that while these developments have not triggered complete risk-off sentiment, they have certainly increased the potential demand for gold as a necessary safe-haven asset [2][7] Market Performance - Gold prices have surged by 70% this year, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979, largely due to increased purchases by central banks and significant inflows into gold ETFs [2][8] - The world's largest precious metals ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its holdings increase by over 20% this year [8] Investor Behavior - Recent price surges have been primarily driven by retail investors rather than institutional ones, with concerns over rising debt levels leading to a sell-off of sovereign bonds and their currencies [8] - The influx of retail investor funds into gold ETFs is noted to be less sticky, suggesting continued price volatility [8] Price Trends - Gold and silver have not experienced sell-offs despite entering overbought territory, as indicated by their relative strength index (RSI) readings above 80 for gold and close to 80 for silver [9] - Current price levels of $4,500 for gold and $70 for silver are viewed as reference points rather than hard resistance levels, indicating solid support for both metals [9] Future Projections - Several banks, including Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a base case scenario of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, while also highlighting potential upside risks [8]

| 1 1 1 12 標 1 œ | | --- | | 4 17 | | 7 1 2 2 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月23日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的 闲置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一国委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应 收紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽 ...

来源：中原网 在震荡2个月后，国际金价重回巅峰。Wind数据显示，12月23日，COMEX黄金期货盘中一度冲至 4530.8美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 国际金价站上4500美元/盎司，年内黄金类ETF净流入额超千亿元 今年，黄金成为资本市场上表现最亮眼的资产之一。Wind数据显示，截至12月22日收盘，COMEX黄金 期货年内涨幅已超60%，达60.84%。 年内，金价屡创新高，COMEX黄金期货接连突破3000美元/盎司、3500美元/盎司、4000美元/盎司及 4500美元/盎司的历史大关。 在国际金价的推动下，零售黄金克价也水涨船高，年初数百元克价的黄金首饰如今已普遍达到千元一 克。金价查询网显示，12月23日，周大福、周生生、六福珠宝、潮宏基的克价已涨至1403元，老凤祥、 周六福则分别为1399元/克，1389元/克。 金价如此狂飙，在信用货币体系重构下，各国央行扫货黄金，ETF资金跑步进场，以及地缘政治风险扰 动、美联储开启降息周期等成主要推手。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2022年至2024年，全球央行年度购金量连续三年超过1000吨。今年前三季度， 全球央行净购金总量达634吨，尽管低于过去三年的 ...

12月23日，现货黄金延续涨势，截至今日11时48分，国内现货黄金报1009.40元/克，国际现货黄金报4486.27美元/盎司。 据智通财经，12月22日纽约时段，现货黄金价格加速上涨，日内涨幅扩大至2%，有望与现货白银一同录得逾四十年来最强劲的年度表 现。 | 品牌 | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 周大福 | 1403 | +2.56% | | 老凤祥 | 1399 | +2.49% | | 周六福 | 1319 | +0.53% | | 周生生 | 1403 | +2.63% | | 六福珠宝 | 1366 | +0.59% | 贵金属市场火爆 有人刚买半天还没发货就赚了 期货价格的上涨带动了线下消费者的咨询热情。 22日，在上海长宁区的一家商场里，虽然是周一工作日下午，但各家金店里仍有不少消费者。上海长宁某商场金店店长称，该店客流 比以往增长了30%左右。 具体行情显示，现货黄金日内一度涨超2.3%报每盎司4442.22美元，现货白银一度涨3.3%报每盎司69.46美元，双双刷新历史纪录，年内 金银分别累涨69%和137%，势将创下1979年以来的最大 ...

在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is positioned to leverage opportunities in the semiconductor foundry sector through collaborations with major North American tech companies like AMD and Google, especially amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Taiwan [1]. Group 1: Collaborations and Contracts - Samsung Electronics' chairman Lee Jae-Yong recently met with executives from major tech companies, including Tesla's Elon Musk and AMD's Lisa Su, to discuss foundry business opportunities [1]. - In July, Samsung signed a contract worth 23 trillion KRW with Tesla to produce the next-generation AI chip, AI6, at its Texas facility [1]. - Samsung is expected to secure more large orders, including its Exynos 2600 processor and image sensors for Apple, as well as ASICs from Chinese companies Bitmain and Canaan [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks and limited capacity at TSMC are driving major tech companies like Tesla, AMD, and Google to engage with Samsung Electronics [2]. - The US government has designated advanced semiconductors as a national security resource, pushing for domestic production, while Taiwan's government restricts technology exports and foreign investment [2]. - TSMC's plans to build a second factory in Arizona and produce 3nm chips by 2027 may fall short as the 2nm process is currently the most advanced, creating an opportunity for Samsung to lead in 2nm production [3]. Group 3: Market Share and Demand - TSMC holds a 71% share of the global foundry market, with its market share increasing from 61.2% in Q4 2023 to over 70% due to high demand for AI semiconductors [3]. - Despite TSMC's growing market share, its capacity shortages are creating a ripple effect that benefits Samsung's foundry operations [3]. - Apple faces a capacity shortage for the next-generation 2nm process, having secured nearly half of the total capacity, prompting competitors like Qualcomm, AMD, and Google to turn to Samsung [5].

2025年12月23日，全球金融市场见证历史，黄金价格如同脱缰野马，一举突破4500美元大关，最高触及4497美元，单日暴涨超过100美元。这场疯狂的上涨 背后，是三个地缘政治火药桶同时冒烟：美国对委内瑞拉发出最后通牒，俄罗斯紧急撤离外交官家属，中东战云密布，俄乌冲突持续升级。 特朗普在海湖庄园与国家安全团队紧急会晤后，宣布将对委内瑞拉实施全面封锁，授权扣押任何驶往委内瑞拉的油轮。 他警告马杜罗："这是最后机 会。"委内瑞拉外长随即召开新闻发布会，谴责美国的行为是"海盗行径"，并揭露美国在加勒比地区的武装行动已造成104人死亡，400万桶原油运输中断。 俄罗斯开始紧急撤离驻委内瑞拉外交官的家属，欧洲情报官员透露，撤离行动已于上周五启动，包括妇女和儿童在内的多名人员正被转移出境。俄罗斯外交 部以"非常严峻的语气"评估当前局势，这一动作通常被视为军事冲突即将爆发的前兆。 与此同时，中东火药桶再次冒烟，以色列向美国通报，伊朗可能正在准备对以色列发动袭击。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡公开警告，如果伊朗攻击以色列，将遭 到"非常猛烈的回应"。尽管美国情报机构尚未发现明确迹象，但这一潜在冲突的风险已让全球投资者神经紧绷。 东欧战 ...

中东地区的火药味也愈发浓厚，以色列向美国通报，伊朗可能在筹备对以色列发动袭击，尽管伊朗的军 演目前仅限于境内调动，且美情报机构未发现明确迹象，但以色列总理内塔尼亚胡已公开警告，如果伊 朗攻击以色列，将遭到"非常猛烈的回应"。这一潜在冲突的风险虽低于50%，但在2023年10月巴以冲突 爆发后，以色列的风险容忍度已大幅降低。 当地时间12月22日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基证实，乌方代表团已结束与美方在迈阿密举行的系列谈判并启 程返乌。泽连斯基表示，代表团当晚将向其提交谈判细节，双方已完成20点"和平计划"初稿阶段全部关 键工作，方案整体制定完毕，虽非尽善尽美，但核心推进目标达成。这些战事和谈判的胶着状态，进一 步放大市场对地缘风险的担忧，推动避险资金涌入黄金市场。 除了地缘政治因素，宏观经济环境的动荡也为黄金提供了强劲支撑。美元指数周一下滑0.47%至98.27， 年内迄今下跌约9.58%，有望创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅，主要受欧元和日元汇率上涨拖累，美元的 疲软直接提升了以美元计价的黄金吸引力。 技术面从黄金日线图上来看，黄金昨日开盘后即持续拉升上涨，盘中冲破4400压力，再创历史创新高， 日线收得一超100美 ...