1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated the need for cautious policy adjustment, cooling the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and a continued decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed year - on - year and fell short of expectations, with the central bank restarting treasury bond trading to release liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed policy expectations [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. For example, stocks, bonds, and various commodities are mostly in a short - term volatile state, and specific trading strategies vary by asset [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and insurance, the domestic stock market fell. With economic data weakening and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive is weak, and the stock index is in short - term volatility. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market fell on Monday night. Due to the strong US dollar and reduced expectations of a US rate cut next month, the short - term is volatile, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday, driven by market sentiment. However, the fundamentals are still weak, with demand declining and supply being restricted by losses. The downward space below 3000 points for rebar is limited, and low - level buying opportunities can be considered [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded on Monday. The bottom of pig iron production is uncertain, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Monday, while the futures prices rebounded. The demand for ferroalloys decreased, and the supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly while that of silicon iron increased slightly. The futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures contract oscillated on Monday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls but remained under pressure. Demand for heavy soda was stable, and that for light soda improved slightly. Short - term range - bound, medium - to - long - term bearish [9]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was slightly stronger on Monday. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was still high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall on Monday, restricted by the reduced expectation of a Fed rate cut. The inventory is difficult to deplete, and if the expectation is repaired later, the price may face a significant correction [10]. - **Tin**: The supply side has a tight situation, and the demand side is weak. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the medium - to - short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit on Monday. The market quickly digested negative news, and the demand logic prevails. It is oscillating strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need to be watched [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly on Monday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures contract fell on Monday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is weak, and the port market has a strong basis in the morning. Inventory is rising, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It may fall in the short term but is supported by gas restrictions and cost factors [15]. - **PP**: The PP market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to increased inventory. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [15]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusted. The core contradiction is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market fluctuates slightly. Supply pressure persists, demand is differentiated, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize in the medium - to - long term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean futures price rose overnight. The export inspection volume was in line with expectations, and the monthly crushing volume reached a record high [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is loose, the inventory is high, and the risk of a future gap is reduced. With the weakening of US soybeans, the price may correct, but it may also stabilize later [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand but is supported by the oil mill's price - holding and export rumors. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and the export volume decreased significantly in November. The domestic inventory increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Corn**: The current corn inventories in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures price may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly stronger [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price was weak over the weekend. The winter consumption peak has not fully arrived, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [21].

有色金属日报 2025-11-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜美股下跌，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 0.73%至 10766 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 86320 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 136050 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下调。国内电 解铜 ...

市场对美联储12月降息的预期，在短短一个月内从沸点降至冰点。 据最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至44.4%，而维持利率不变的概率则升至55.6%。 这一数据标志着市场预期发生了根本性转变。回想10月中旬，降息概率还高达94.2%，而如今市场却更倾向于相信美联储将按兵不动。 美联储货币政策预期正在经历一场剧烈转变。 CME美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，不仅12月降息概率大幅下滑，对明年1月的利率预期也相应调整。 到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为16.7%。 回顾这一预期变化轨迹，市场态度的转变速度令人吃惊。 从10月15日的94.2%，到11月7日的66.9%，再到11月13日的50.1%，最终到11月17日的44.4%。 与此同时，维持利率不变的概率从10月15日的5.7%，一路上升至11月17日的55.6%。 市场预期的"大逆转"不仅体现在概率变化上，更反映了对宏观经济形势的重新评估。 多位美联储官员近期的鹰派言论，是导致市场预期转变的主要推手。 美联储主席鲍威尔直言，12月是否降息远非定局， ...

Core Insights - The international gold price opened at 942.06 yuan per gram and has shown a downward trend, currently at 929.87 yuan per gram, indicating a significant decline from the previous closing price of 954.71 yuan per gram [1] - The fluctuation in gold prices is closely linked to global economic conditions, with the recent drop potentially signaling an economic recovery as investor risk appetite increases [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in December are expected to be a key factor influencing future gold price movements, with market expectations leaning towards a pause in interest rate cuts [1] Market Dynamics - The current gold price decline may present a potential buying opportunity for investors, although caution is advised against making impulsive decisions based solely on short-term price movements [1][2] - The ongoing volatility in the gold market raises questions about whether the recent price drop is a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a longer-term downward trend [5] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a keen awareness of market developments and the latest gold price trends to make informed investment decisions [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil market is in a state of structural supply surplus, with both OPEC and EIA expecting oversupply. However, factors such as OPEC's lower - than - expected production increase, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply, and the return of funds are providing some support to oil prices. The market outlook is complex, and short - term oil prices may oscillate at low levels. It is recommended to operate in the short term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long term [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Trends**: Last week, NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.81 per barrel, up 0.93% week - on - week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.29 per barrel, down 0.05% week - on - week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 461.7 yuan per barrel, up 0.24% week - on - week [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global market has shifted from a daily supply shortage of 400,000 barrels to a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels. EIA expects the U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, higher than the previous estimate. Indian refiners said that Saudi Arabia and Iraq would fully deliver the contracted crude oil volume to India in December and could increase the supply [3]. - **Production**: In October, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.43 million barrels, an increase of 30,000 barrels from September, with the increase lower than the planned 114,000 barrels. Despite Ukraine's drone attacks, Russia's oil processing volume decreased by only 3% this year, and the decline in refining volume from August to October was 6% [3]. - **Funds**: In the week of November 11, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 12,636 contracts to 164,867 contracts; as of the week of September 23, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [3]. 3.2 Related News - **Fed Policy**: With less than a month until the December interest - rate meeting, the Fed's stance is divided, but the balance is tilting towards keeping the policy unchanged. Several Fed officials expressed hawkish views this week [4]. - **IEA Outlook**: IEA believes there is "considerable downside risk" to Russia's crude oil production outlook, but it has not estimated the specific impact yet. It maintains the estimate of Russia's average daily output of 9.3 million barrels in this quarter and next year [4]. - **Market Structure**: The futures curve of WTI shows a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak demand for spot - delivered crude oil. In October, U.S. crude oil exports reached the highest level since July 2024. The futures curve of Brent crude oil will remain flat in the months after March next year [4]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil terminals and the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia have led to potential supply losses, driving up oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has fluctuated sharply, from nearly 95% to about 50% [5]. 3.3 Outlook - The oil price will oscillate at a low level in the future. It is recommended to operate in the short - term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long - term, while paying attention to the progress of geopolitical events [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have all declined compared with the previous period, with price drops ranging from - 0.36 to - 1.66 dollars and price decline rates from - 0.54% to - 2.56% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated. For example, as of November 7, the Cushing inventory was 22.519 million barrels, a decrease of 346,000 barrels; the EIA inventory was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels [10][11]. 3.5 Position Data - **CFTC and ICE Data**: The net long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil futures have changed. By calculation, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators and the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures have increased in some periods [3][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Various commodity futures markets show different trends and characteristics, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on market performance, fundamentals, etc. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price dropped on Friday, with London gold falling below $4,100/ounce. The US will release multiple economic data, and Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continue to flow in, and inventories in different places change. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level. [1] - **Silver**: There is a short - squeeze situation. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions. [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Price was weak on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the probability of a December interest rate cut is low. Supply is tight, and demand has improved. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract fell on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand has slightly improved. Overseas supply disturbances have pushed up prices, but the short - term trend depends on the movement of main funds. [2] - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Supply is in surplus, and some factories are overhauling or reducing production. The price is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the short term. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Current demand is high, but the long - term demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing high prices, or consider selling put options. [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Tin**: Price oscillated weakly on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the supply of tin ore is tight. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [4] Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The main contract price rose slightly. Steel supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the hot - rolled coil contract. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the iron ore contract. [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the coking coal contract. [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Friday. Supply is shrinking, and demand is growing rigidly. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short term. [6] - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and some spot prices weakened. Supply is delayed due to weather, and there is a short - term supply - demand tightness, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to sell hedging at high prices. [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices showed different trends. The supply of Malaysian palm oil is high in the near term and is expected to decrease seasonally in the long term. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy. [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar showed different trends. The international market is affected by India's export policy, and the domestic market will follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market or sell call options. [7] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated narrowly. International data adjustments are negative for cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices fell. Supply pressure has decreased, and demand has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. [7] - **Apples**: The main contract price rose last week. Due to extreme weather, the supply of high - quality apples is reduced, and the price is high. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [8] - **PVC**: The main contract price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is less than expected. It is recommended to short. [8] - **PTA**: PX and PTA prices have different trends. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing fee in PTA. [8] - **Rubber**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to oscillate between 14,500 - 15,500. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract price fell. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. It is recommended to use a reverse spread or short strategy. [9] - **PP**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [9] - **MEG**: The spot price is given. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract. [9] - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated this week due to the game between fundamental negatives and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than expected. [9][10] - **Styrene**: The main contract price rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply and demand are improving in the short term but are weak in the long term. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term. [10] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract price fell. Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks collectively declined following a significant drop in spot gold prices, which fell nearly $180 from a historical high of $4,211, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02099) fell by 4.03%, closing at HKD 135.8 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) decreased by 3.46%, closing at HKD 33.52 [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) dropped by 2.96%, closing at HKD 29.54 [1] - Zijin Mining International (02259) declined by 2.54%, closing at HKD 138 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is adjusting its optimistic expectations for a December interest rate cut following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to profit-taking across risk assets, including gold and cryptocurrencies [1] - Dongwu Securities suggests that despite the current macroeconomic framework, there remains a medium-term bullish outlook for precious metals, indicating that the recent price correction may present a buying opportunity [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures believes that the recent rebound in gold and silver prices has ended, and a new adjustment phase is expected, with attention on the upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

本周，美联储将公布10月货币政策会议纪要，多位美联储官员也将陆续发表讲话，投资者将在会议纪要 以及这些最新表态中寻找线索，推测美联储的货币政策路径。上周，多位美联储官员先后发言，打压了 降息预期。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，目前美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至不足50%。（总台 央视记者 渠莎莎） 编辑：王一帆 ...

短期之"冰"：回顾近期跌势的寒意 截至今日亚市收盘，国际现货黄金价格交投于每盎司1930美元附近，虽然较上周低点略有反弹，但相较 于一个月前超过2050美元的高点，跌幅依然超过5%。这一轮下跌，主要由以下几个因素合力造成： 2025年11月16日，综合讯—— 今日的全球黄金市场，正弥漫着一种复杂而微妙的气息。在过去几周经 历了一轮令人心悸的显著下挫后，金价在当前位置陷入了拉锯与震荡。然而，在表面的疲软之下，一股 看涨的暗流正在涌动。越来越多的市场分析指出，此前压制黄金表现的几大短期"枷锁"已然松动，市场 正站在一个短期波动加剧、但中长期前景趋于明朗的关键节点之上。 面对当前"短期波动"与"中长期积极"并存的局面，市场参与者应如何布局？ 短期来看， 金价的波动性仍将维持在高位。多空双方将在1950美元附近展开激烈争夺。任何关于美国 经济数据或美联储官员的讲话，都可能引起价格的剧烈摆动。对于短线交易者而言，这既是风险，也是 机会。 1、美元与美债收益率的"双刃剑"：过去一个月，美国公布的一系列经济数据，特别是通胀和就业数 据，显示出超预期的韧性。这迫使市场重新评估美联储的货币政策路径。此前市场普遍期待的快速、连 ...