Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[6] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[6] Core CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[10] - Energy prices were the main driver of the inflation increase, with energy inflation rising by 1.9 percentage points to 1.0% month-on-month[13] Tariff Impact on Core Goods - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable month-on-month increases in clothing (0.9 percentage points) and furniture (0.6 percentage points) prices[14] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with respective month-on-month declines of 0.5% and 0.3%[15] Core Services Performance - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, showed strong inflation performance, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month[20] - The housing component saw a decline in growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, which fell by 2.8 percentage points to -2.9%[20] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[24] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[24] Federal Reserve Stance - Given the current economic conditions and the gradual transmission of tariff pressures, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to lower interest rates in the short term[25]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...

美国波士顿联储主席Susan Collins仍然认为，美联储在考虑降息问题上可以保持耐心，企业和家庭资产 负债表状况良好，可能会减轻关税对经济的影响。"总体的经济状况持续稳固，使美联储能够有时间认 真评估各种新增数据，" Collins为全国商业经济协会在华盛顿一场活动预先准备的讲话中表示。"因 此，在我看来，目前对货币政策保持'积极耐心'的做法依然是合适的。" ...

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6%, and up from the previous value of 2.4% [1][2] - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1][2] - The overall CPI data indicates a subtle resurgence of inflationary pressures, prompting a reassessment of market expectations regarding inflation [2] Group 2: Housing Market - The housing index increased by 0.2% in June, contributing significantly to the overall index rise [3] - Housing is viewed as a necessity with stable demand, showcasing strong anti-inflation properties [3] - Real estate investments, particularly Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), are expected to provide considerable returns due to stable rental income and property appreciation potential [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - The energy index rose by 0.9% in June, with gasoline prices increasing by 1.0% [4] - Over the past year, the energy index has decreased by 0.8%, with gasoline prices down by 8.3% [4] - Long-term opportunities are anticipated in the clean energy sector, driven by increasing global demand for renewable energy sources [4] Group 4: Food Industry - The food index rose by 0.3% in June, with household and away-from-home food prices increasing by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively [5] - The food sector is characterized by rigid demand, less affected by economic cycles, and is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and safety standards [5] - Companies with brand advantages and those focusing on organic and health food production are expected to thrive in the competitive landscape [5] Group 5: Non-Food and Non-Energy Sectors - The index excluding food and energy rose by 0.2% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [6] - Sectors such as home furnishings, healthcare, and entertainment are showing upward trends, while used and new vehicle prices are declining [6] - The healthcare sector remains attractive due to stable demand, especially for innovative pharmaceutical companies and high-end medical service providers [6]

金十数据7月15日讯，美国6月通胀如预期加速，投资者纷纷买入美国国债，推低了收益率。美国6月 CPI同比上涨2.7%，高于5月份2.4%的涨幅。核心CPI年率从2.8%上升至2.9%。美联储的通胀目标是 2%。美国PPI数据定于明天公布，预计也将加速。投资者正在仔细研究通胀数据，寻找关税影响的迹 象。6月份的数据支持美联储按兵不动，但CPI涨幅未超预期可能会缓解对美联储采取更强硬立场的担 忧。数据公布前，美债收益率稳步走高，数据公布后回落。10年期美债收益率为4.422%，2年期国债收 益率为3.912%。 美国通胀加速，美国国债收益率下滑 美国10年国债收益率 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a significant rebound in inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the second half of the year [1][4] - The CPI for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, indicating overall moderate inflation pressure [3] - Wall Street anticipates that the June CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.7% and month-on-month growth may reach 0.3%, marking a new high for the year [3] Group 2 - The rise in inflation is attributed not only to short-term fluctuations in energy and food prices but also to new tariff measures impacting various sectors, leading to input inflation [3] - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a trend of rising raw material prices, reflecting companies' responses to tariff policies, which could lead to widespread price increases in core goods [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to observe summer price reports to assess changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, but there is divergence on the timing, with some investors believing that sustained high inflation could delay rate cuts [4] - The recent rebound in the dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields indicate increased investor vigilance regarding the potential for rising inflation [4] - The current situation presents challenges for the Federal Reserve, balancing the risk of inflation resurgence against potential growth risks from manufacturing weakness and declining consumer momentum [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]

7月15日亚市尾盘，贵金属市场呈现显著分化态势。现货黄金延续日内温和反弹走势，当前金价在3364 美元/盎司附近徘徊；现货白银虽触及每盎司39美元的阻力位，但仍具备挑战2011年历史高点的充足动 能。货币贬值之际，投资者往往会转向硬资产，金银由此受益。美元疲软部分归因于市场对美国通胀可 能因拟议关税及其他政策措施而持续居高不下的担忧，这种通胀忧虑再度引发避险货币与贵金属需求的 飙升。 现货黄金（伦敦金）：黄金收小阴线，依托5日、10日均线运行，日线RSI跌至50附近。4小时级别上， 一度上探3370 - 80压力带，但涨势未能延续，整体维持区间震荡格局。 【要闻速递】 根据路透社最新调查，美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅预计从2.4%攀升至2.7%，核心CPI同比 增幅亦可能从2.8%升至3%。环比方面，CPI和核心CPI均预期上升0.3%。这一数据显示美国通胀压力持 续回升。 市场对美联储货币政策的预期随之调整。芝加哥商品交易所"美联储观察工具"显示，当前市场预期7月 降息概率趋近于零，9月维持利率不变的概率约为30%。FXStreet分析师Eren Sengezer指出，若6月核心 CPI环比增幅 ...

智通财经APP获悉，经济学家长期以来一直警告称，关税将推高美国通胀。即将公布的消费者物价报告 将检验他们的判断是否准确。在连续四个月高估消费者价格指数(CPI)之后，预测人士预计美国劳工统 计局在周二发布的6月CPI数据将显示通胀加快;家具、玩具和娱乐商品以及汽车等受关税影响的品类价 格上涨预计将结束此前一系列温和的物价数据。 这对美联储来说是一个棘手的局面。美联储今年一直坚守维持利率不变的立场，理由是预计关税将推动 通胀上行，尽管这种情况尚未出现。如果此次CPI数据依旧温和，几乎可以肯定将再次激怒美国总统特 朗普——他已多次呼吁美联储降息，并公开批评美联储主席鲍威尔。 美联储官员和私营部门预测人士普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普征收的关税转嫁给消费者，今年夏天 通胀将会上升。虽然许多公司最初选择通过提前增加库存或牺牲利润来吸收部分更高的成本、从而保护 消费者，但现在他们的一些应对措施已经捉襟见肘。 EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示："企业依然在利用各种策略来缓解关税的影响。"他预 计，关税将推动6月整体CPI月度增幅的三分之一，夏季晚些时候还会有更大的冲击，"但随着时间的推 移 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has reached a historic high of $121,500, driven by institutional buying and a recovery in market risk appetite [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is expected to increase liquidity in the cryptocurrency market [4][5] - The introduction of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. has provided a clearer regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, boosting investor confidence [4][5][6] Price Movement - Bitcoin first surpassed the $100,000 mark on December 5, 2024, and has since experienced significant volatility, including a drop below $80,000 in April [3] - After breaking the $110,000 level in May, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase before rising to $121,500 in July [3][4] - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $135,000 in Q3 and potentially $200,000 by the end of the year [8] Market Dynamics - The shift in Bitcoin's primary buyers from retail investors to large corporations and asset management firms has significantly impacted price dynamics [5] - The market is currently characterized by strong buying pressure from long-term holders, which has reduced selling pressure and provided a solid support base for prices [6] - The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional macroeconomic variables has increased, indicating its role in the global liquidity landscape [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin is in a "price discovery" phase after reaching new highs, with potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking [8][9] - The future trajectory of Bitcoin's price will depend on key variables, including U.S. policy towards digital assets and the maintenance of trading volumes [9] - Caution is advised for traders, with recommendations to manage positions carefully and avoid excessive leverage in a high-volatility environment [9]