美国银行的首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett建议，在不确定性彻底结束前，投资者应该趁美股、美元反 弹时卖出。 Hartnett和他的团队在报告中指出，"我们（上半年）仍然会在债券、黄金下跌时买入，在标准普尔指数/ 美元上涨时卖出。"Hartnett补充说，市场的"痛苦交易"表明未来还会有更多的下行空间。 报告指出，美元正处于长期贬值趋势中，而资金撤离美国资产的趋势还将延续。这一趋势将持续到美联 储开始降息、"贸易战"彻底结束以及消费者支出保持韧性为止。 高盛也表示，自3月初以来，外国投资者已悄然抛售了630亿美元的美股。而摩根大通周五公布的一项调 查显示，美股将是今年资金流出最多的资产类别，最被看好的资产类别是现金。 图片来源：智通财经 美国银行策略师并不看好本轮美股反弹。 本周一，美股三大指数集体大跌，且跌幅均超过2%。周二至周五，美股则连续4天反弹。整周，道指、 标普500指数、纳指分别上涨2.48%、4.59%、6.73%。万得美国科技七巨头指数单周涨幅接近8%，特斯 拉大涨18%，亚马逊、英伟达、脸书涨幅均超过9%，苹果、微软涨幅也超过6%。 本周，特朗普对关税的态度有所缓和。Robeco ...

迄今为止，美国白宫都没有公布任何同其他经济体的正式贸易协议，美国总统特朗普最近却透露了惊人 的数字，宣称他已经谈下200份协议。 美东时间4月25日周五媒体发布的专访显示，本周二该媒体问特朗普，他的贸易顾问纳瓦罗之前说，可 能在90天内达成90份协议，现在距离90天这个期间只剩13天，还没有一份协议对外公布，为何会如此。 特朗普回答，并不是什么都没有，有"很多"（many）协议。 以上提到的90天是指美国暂缓征收部分对等关税的期间。据新华社，美国4月2日宣布对所有贸易伙伴征 收对等关税，其中对华加征关税税率高达34%；4月9日，美方继续对中国产品加税至125%，并对其他 各国超过10%部分的对等关税暂缓90天；中方4月11日宣布，对原产美国的进口商品加征关税提高至 125%。 本周五公布的访谈中，被媒体追问何时会公布很多协议时，特朗普说： "我已经谈成了200份协议。" 同在周五，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）透露在同一些国家会谈。USTR称，正与日本及其他国家"持 续进行"实质性的技术性会谈，会谈的重点是改善互惠贸易。 据央视新闻，上周的美日谈判结束后，特朗普宣称取得"重大进展"，但海外媒体表示，除了同意再 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPR remained unchanged this month, and the crude steel output increased seasonally in March. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The global economic uncertainty is high, and trade tensions are intensifying [6]. - Trump's attitude towards China has softened, and it is expected that tariffs on Chinese goods will be significantly reduced, which eases market pessimism, and the commodity index fluctuates [6]. - The ferroalloy production profit is negative, and the molten iron output continues to rise. The overall demand for steel is still weak, and the 75B ferrosilicon tender quantity of Hegang in April decreased compared with the previous round [6]. - The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable, with little expected change [6]. - The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - The supply is decreasing, and the power cost provides support. The spot price change is limited, and the sector demand is under pressure. Ferrosilicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: This month, the LPR remained unchanged. In March, the crude steel output increased seasonally, and the average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities decreased. The global economic uncertainty is high, and trade tensions are intensifying [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Trump's attitude towards China has softened, and it is expected that tariffs on Chinese goods will be significantly reduced. There are two possible tariff adjustment plans [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The ferroalloy production profit is negative, the molten iron output rises, and the overall steel demand is weak. The 75B ferrosilicon tender quantity of Hegang in April decreased compared with the previous round [6]. - **Cost Aspect**: The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable, with little expected change [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The supply is decreasing, and the power cost provides support. The spot price change is limited, and the sector demand is under pressure. Ferrosilicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of April 25, the open interest of ferrosilicon futures contracts decreased by 36,900 lots compared with the previous period, and the monthly spread increased by 52. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 530, and the spot price remained unchanged [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 25, the basis of ferrosilicon increased by 42, reaching - 60 yuan/ton [20][21]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: As of April 24, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 30.91%, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous period, and the daily average output decreased by 200 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types increased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the national ferrosilicon output was 98,900 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 11.82% from the previous period [27][31]. - **Upstream**: As of April 21, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for ferrosilicon production remained unchanged. As of April 24, the price of Shenmu semi - coke remained unchanged. The production profit of ferrosilicon was negative [37][43]. - **Downstream**: As of April 25, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. From January to February 2025, the total ferrosilicon export volume decreased by 26.65% compared with the same period last year [47].

特朗普秒变脸！关税砍半+鲍威尔保命？中美谈判桌暗流涌动！ 导语 老铁们！川普大爷这波操作直接把华尔街整不会了！前脚刚说要炒了美联储主席鲍威尔，后脚就改口称"从没想过解雇他"，转头又承认对华关 税"高得离谱要大幅砍价"。这变脸速度比川剧还快，咱得好好掰扯掰扯这出大戏。 【事件反转】特朗普急刹车：不解雇鲍威尔，关税要砍半？ 美东时间周二（4月22日），白宫上演现实版"冰火两重天"。总统特朗普在官方活动后的记者会上突然变调，先是对着媒体比出"OK"手势："我和 鲍威尔聊得不错，他暂时安全了。"这和他上周大骂鲍威尔"史上最差主席""越早滚蛋越好"的态度简直判若两人。 更绝的是，这位最会搞推特治国的总统突然承认："我们现在对华关税确实定得太高，会考虑大幅下调。"这话要是放在两年前，能从他嘴里蹦出 来？记得当时他可是在推特上炫耀"关税就是中国交的保护费"啊！ 【恩怨情仇】从"央行刺客"到"最佳队友" 要说这出戏码，得从去年说起。川普刚上任就盯着美联储："赶紧降息啊！我的经济计划全靠低利率！"可鲍威尔这个"鹰派铁头娃"硬是顶着压力 加息，气得总统在推特上连发十几条推文骂街。 到今年4月，矛盾彻底爆发。先是白宫经济顾问放风要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 78,000 yuan mark before falling back. It oscillated below 78,000 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest increased slightly. The price increase was due to Trump's recognition of high tariffs on Chinese goods and the expected significant reduction. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, the refined - scrap spread has widened, and the industrial support is strong but the driving force will decline. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress the price increase. It is expected that the short - term copper price will oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 78,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price slightly rose and then fell in the morning, oscillating above 19,800 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest decreased continuously. The price increase was also due to the expected tariff reduction. The short - term macro environment is improving, high profits of smelters suppress the price, while active downstream production provides support. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,000 yuan [5]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated in the range of 125,000 - 126,000 yuan and closed above 126,000 yuan, with the open interest decreasing slightly. The short - term price has repeatedly failed to break through the 126,000 yuan mark, facing significant technical resistance. The short - term industrial outlook is weak, and the downstream stainless - steel market is sluggish. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will be weak [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On April 23, a fatal accident occurred at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and an investigation. Citi raised the copper futures price forecast to $8,800 per ton due to Trump's relaxed stance on tariffs [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to IAI data, the global primary aluminum production in March 2025 was 6.227 million tons, compared with 6.089 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 5.66 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in March was 3.729 million tons, compared with a revised 3.399 million tons in the previous month [8]. - **Nickel**: On April 23, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,800 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,850 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,300 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,650 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [32][35][36].

观察者网消息，美国财政部长贝森特22日被爆向投资者承认，眼下中美关税对峙僵局"难以为继"，并称预 计"短时间内"将出现缓和态势后，"先眨眼"的美国总统特朗普再度释放"降温"信号。 据美联社23日报道，当地时间周二（22日），特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示，在关税谈判期间他不会对 中国采取 "强硬手段"，并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议，"大幅下调"对中国进口商品加 征的145%巨额关税。 在被问到是否会对中国采取"强硬态度"时，特朗普否认说："不，我不会说'我要对中方强硬'。我们会以非 常友好的态度对待他们，他们也会友好相待，然后我们拭目以待会发生什么。" 继续凭空造牌，他在回答另一个问题时又补充称，如果未与中国达成贸易协议，"我们只需要设定（关 税）数字就行"。 《今日美国》报道称，尽管中美之间的正式贸易谈判尚未启动，但特朗普仍摆出一副信誓旦旦的模 样，"这份协议对于每个人而言都是公平的。而且我认为这个（谈判）过程很快会完成。" 在后续提问中，特朗普也重申了不想继续提高对华关税的态度。在谈到高达145%的对华关税时，他声称， 针对中国进口商品的关税税率不会维持在当前水平，"145%的税率非常高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States is preparing to negotiate with the United Kingdom to lower tariffs on various American goods, specifically aiming to reduce the UK’s automobile tariff from 10% to 2.5% [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Goals - The U.S. intends to encourage the UK to lower tariffs on multiple American products and reduce non-tariff barriers [1] - A specific target is to decrease the UK’s automobile tariff from 10% to 2.5% [1] - The U.S. will also push for the UK to ease import regulations on American beef and other agricultural products [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The U.S. seeks modifications to the rules regarding the origin of goods traded between the two countries [1] - A draft document outlining the U.S.-UK trade negotiation objectives has been circulated to stakeholders by the Trump administration [1]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648) reported a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year, despite facing challenges in the domestic petrochemical industry due to supply-demand imbalances [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The company reported a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, which is a 26.77% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The company maintains a competitive edge through low raw material costs, a complete supply chain, and integrated industrial operations [1] - Satellite Chemical employs a leading technology strategy, focusing on R&D innovation to differentiate and upscale its products, allowing for premium pricing [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces uncertainties from domestic and international markets, particularly the "low-end surplus, high-end shortage" issue in the petrochemical sector [1] - The price of propane, a key raw material, has dropped significantly from $618/ton to $450/ton, creating arbitrage opportunities for the company's processing business [1][2] Group 4: Tariff Adjustments and Responses - Satellite Chemical has developed three strategies to mitigate the impact of tariff adjustments on ethane, including lobbying for exclusion from tariffs and adapting processing models [2][3] - The company has a history of processing business and plans to shift its focus to export-oriented operations, despite the complexities involved [3] Group 5: Production Capacity and Market Outlook - In 2024, Satellite Chemical plans to invest in a new facility with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons of ethanolamine, enhancing its product lineup [4] - The company’s C2 and C3 product prices have shown a positive trend, with projections indicating a potential price increase due to supply constraints in the domestic market [5][6] Group 6: Industry Trends - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity expansion, which is expected to support chemical prices [5] - The high dependency on imports for high-end polyethylene and other products indicates a structural issue in the market, with potential for price increases as domestic supply tightens [5][6]

4月16日，美股周三低开。道琼斯工业指数跌0.35%至40225.82点，标普500指数跌1.01%至5342.16点， 纳斯达克指数跌1.89%至16499.69点。 具体来看，科技股普遍走低，美股科技七巨头均低开，英伟达重挫6.9%，微软跌1.4%，苹果跌1.8%， 亚马逊跌1.7%，谷歌跌2.1%，特斯拉跌2.5%，Meta跌2.5%。 除英伟达外，半导体板块也表现疲软，超威半导体（AMD）跌7.9%，应用材料跌5.3%，阿斯麦跌 5.3%，台积电跌5.1%。 本周美股财报季继续，高盛、强生、美国银行、花旗集团、黑石、阿斯麦、台积电、奈飞等知名公司将 陆续公布业绩。 | 英伟达 | 105.9750 | -5.55% | -6.2250 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US NVDA.O | 104.500 盘前 | -6.86% | -7.700 | | 特斯拉 | 248.3350 | -2.27% | -5.7750 | | US TSLA.O | 247.550 盘前 | -2.58% | -6.560 | | Meta | 510.3200 | -2.15% | - ...

国务院关税税则委员会今天（11日）发布公告，2025年4月10日，美国政府宣布对中国输 美商品征收"对等关税"的税率进一步提高至125%。美方对华加征畸高关税，严重违反国际 经贸规则，也违背基本的经济规律和常识，完全是单边霸凌胁迫做法。 根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华人民共和国海关法》、《中华人民共和国对外贸易 法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经国务院批准，自2025年4月12日起，调整对原产于 美国的进口商品加征关税措施。有关事项如下： 昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 中国对美所有进口商品加征125%关税 二、其他事项按照《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》 （税委会公告2025年第4号）执行。 小米汽车回应湛江SU7事故 4月11日，小米汽车发文回应了网传的湛江事故。 小米汽车表示，2025年4月5日凌晨，一辆 小米SU7标准版 在驾驶员（经查非车主本人） 手动驾驶状态行驶过程中，在湛江市徐闻县曲界镇376省道与一辆电动二轮车发生碰撞。事 故发生后，肇事司机弃车逃逸。据警方最新通报，肇事司机目前已被执行逮捕。 对于事故中汽车为什么会被引燃，小米汽车表示，目前，现场勘查已完成， ...