Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market to enhance economic resilience and promote effective market and government collaboration [1][2] - Recommendations include strengthening fair competition reviews, addressing barriers to economic circulation, and enhancing regulatory frameworks to support market integration [1] - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in national technology initiatives is suggested, focusing on improving the development environment for private companies [3][4] Group 2 - The need for a unified technology transfer system and a platform for rapid matching of innovation results with market demands is highlighted to enhance the conversion of scientific achievements [5][6] - Investment in human capital is proposed as a strategy to drive high-quality development, linking improvements in living standards with economic growth [7] - Recommendations for optimizing the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to ensure balanced regional development and effective public service delivery are presented [8][9] Group 3 - The financial system's role in supporting private enterprises and technological innovation is emphasized, with suggestions for improving financial support mechanisms [10] - A multi-faceted investment growth mechanism is proposed to foster future industries, focusing on government guidance and innovative financing models [11][12] - The importance of addressing challenges in the AI industry, particularly in data sharing and computational power, is discussed to promote innovation [13][14] Group 4 - Recommendations for enhancing agricultural technology promotion through systemic reforms and innovative service models are outlined to support agricultural development [15][16] - The role of county-level cities in urban-rural integration is emphasized, with suggestions for improving infrastructure and public services [17][18] - Strategies for promoting high-quality employment for college graduates, including enhancing cooperation between educational institutions and industries, are proposed [19] Group 5 - The need for a new model of real estate development is highlighted, focusing on meeting the housing needs of new citizens and young people while ensuring market stability [20] - Suggestions for enhancing investment quality and efficiency in the Belt and Road Initiative are presented, emphasizing financial coordination and risk management [21][22] - The importance of stabilizing and improving the quality of foreign investment and trade is discussed, with a focus on attracting high-end service industries and supporting domestic enterprises in international markets [23]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant transformation and adjustment due to changing domestic and international economic conditions [1][3] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical period for the real estate sector, with a shift in policy focus from stabilizing to consolidating stability [3] Policy Developments - Financial policies are increasingly supportive of reasonable financing needs for real estate companies, with banks optimizing credit offerings [5] - Tax policies are being adjusted to favor homebuyers, with various regions implementing tax reductions that lower home purchase costs by tens of thousands [5] - Land supply policies are being optimized based on market demand, with adjustments made to land sale rhythms and scales to address supply-demand imbalances [5] Market Strategies - The "Optimize Inventory" strategy involves local governments exploring policies for acquiring existing residential properties to convert them into affordable or rental housing [7] - The "Expand Supply" strategy focuses on increasing the supply of high-quality housing, with an emphasis on quality in land supply and new housing regulations [7] - A shift towards a new development model in the real estate sector is underway, moving from high-leverage, high-turnover practices to a focus on high-quality development [7] Market Dynamics - Diversification into commercial, industrial, and rental housing sectors is becoming a new focus for real estate companies [9] - While the exact timing of price increases cannot be determined, positive factors are creating conditions for price stability and reasonable recovery [9] - The real estate market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and regional disparities, with first-tier cities expected to see price stabilization while third and fourth-tier cities face challenges [9][11] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to present both opportunities and challenges, with continued policy easing expected to stabilize prices in first-tier and hot second-tier cities [11] - The cancellation of purchase restrictions in cities like Guangzhou may signal a new wave of market support actions in other first-tier cities [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has decreased year-on-year, while many regions continue to relax policies to stimulate the market [1] - The report highlights a significant shift in the real estate market dynamics, indicating a potential turning point in policy effectiveness and market stabilization [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.9% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind A indices decreased by 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.5% and -0.9% [55] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - New housing market: In the last week, 36 cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 205.9 million square meters, up 10.0% month-on-month but down 18.5% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions totaled 527.4 million square meters, down 11.0% year-on-year [13][17] - Second-hand housing market: In 15 cities, the transaction area was 169.5 million square meters, up 1.6% month-on-month and up 1.4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions reached 456 million square meters, up 7.0% year-on-year [17] - Inventory and absorption: The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities was 7816.2 million square meters, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year. The absorption cycle for new homes was 20.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 months and a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 months [29] 3. Land Market Conditions - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1571.3 million square meters, down 24.1% month-on-month and down 31.8% year-on-year. The average land price was 1732 RMB per square meter, up 32.0% month-on-month and up 30.0% year-on-year [47] - The cumulative land transaction area for 2025 was 49461.5 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [47] 4. Investment Recommendations - Real estate development: Recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to Greentown China [8] - Property management: Recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [8] - Real estate brokerage: Recommended company is Beike, with a suggestion to pay attention to I Love My Home [9]

上头的动作也是越来越密集。这不，6月13号刚开的国务院常务会议（咱就叫国常会吧），又重点敲黑 板了房地产的事儿！ 我仔细琢磨了会议释放的信号，感觉这次不是小打小闹，而是真的下了大决心，要稳住局面，还要谋划 长远。咱今天就好好唠唠这个事儿。 为啥非得"稳"住楼市不可？这包袱太重了！ 咱得先弄明白一个事儿：为啥上面现在对"稳楼市"这么上心，力度可以说是空前的？这可不是拍脑袋决 定的。 核心就一个：房地产这玩意儿，在咱们国家经济这台大机器里，分量实在太重了！重到它打个喷嚏，可 能好多地方都得跟着感冒。 第一，它牵连的"兄弟行业"太多了！你想想，盖房子不是光有钢筋水泥就行的。 从土地规划、设计画图，到建材生产（钢筋、水泥、玻璃、涂料...）、建筑施工、装修装饰，再到家电 家具、金融服务、中介服务...这整条产业链长得吓人！ 我查过点资料，房地产业直接或间接带动的相关行业，少说也有五六十个。 毫不夸张地说，它要是真趴窝了，下游一大片工厂、公司、工人伙计们的饭碗都得受影响。 整个经济链条的运转都会被拖慢。这就叫"牵一发而动全身"，真不是危言耸听。 而且，关键是目前，咱还没找到哪个行业，能立刻顶上，扛起房地产这么大的盘子和 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry and its investment strategies for mid-2025, highlighting the current market conditions and future expectations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The central bank has maintained the MLF interest rate, which is expected to lead banks to lower commercial loan rates, enhancing liquidity in the market [1][2]. - **High-Quality Housing Financing**: The Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the supply of funds for high-quality residential projects and is accelerating the introduction of financing systems that align with new real estate development models [2][3]. - **Current Housing Sales Policy**: The policy for selling existing homes has extended development cycles to 2-3 years, increasing market uncertainty and sales challenges [1][2]. - **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on urban renewal, with increased financial support from various government bodies [2][3]. - **Special Bonds Utilization**: As of June 2025, approximately 400 billion yuan of special bonds have been used for land acquisition, but only 70 billion yuan in transactions have been completed, indicating a need for stronger government action [1][3]. - **REITs Market Growth**: The issuance of REITs has accelerated, with a 9.07% increase in the CSI REITs index this year, outperforming both stock and bond markets [1][4][5]. Additional Important Content - **Performance of REITs**: - Housing REITs reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a distribution fund increase of 11% [1][5]. - Consumer REITs showed resilience with a 7% revenue increase and a 23% rise in distributable funds in Q1 2025 [7]. - **Real Estate Sales Trends**: - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in sales volume and area, with expectations of a narrowing decline in the future [8]. - The trend towards luxury new homes is evident, driven by a lack of demand for affordable housing and administrative constraints on land sales [8][11]. - **Developer Sales Performance**: Major developers like Poly Developments and China Resources Land are leading in sales, with cities like Shanghai showing significant transaction volumes [9]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The decline in new home market absorption rates is expected to stabilize around July 2025 due to an influx of quality new homes [10]. - **Land Acquisition Trends**: Developers are increasingly willing to acquire land in core cities, with leading firms showing over 300% year-on-year growth in land acquisition [12]. - **Industry Evolution**: The real estate sector is shifting towards more cautious land acquisition strategies, focusing on high-certainty core areas to mitigate risks [13]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The new and second-hand housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, with policies in Xi'an allowing provident fund payments for new home down payments, which is expected to stimulate market activity [4][5] - The report indicates a weak recovery trend in the new housing market, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market through supportive fiscal and monetary policies [4][6] - The report highlights that land transaction areas have increased month-on-month, with a notable performance in the Shanghai land auction market [6][37] Sales Sector Summary - In the 25th week of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 68 major cities was 2.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23% but a month-on-month increase of 7% [18][32] - The cumulative transaction area from the beginning of the year to date in 68 cities reached 58.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 6% [18] - The transaction area of second-hand homes in 20 cities was 2.09 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5% [32] Investment Sector Summary - In the 25th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning areas totaling 23.36 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20.71 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3% [37] - The average transaction premium rate was 1.5%, with notable land sales in cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [37] Financing Sector Summary - In the 25th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds reached 7.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126% [45] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds was 178.75 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for policies to stimulate housing consumption and stabilize the real estate market in China, particularly in the context of recent economic challenges [19][21][22] - The average housing prices in Zhongshan are significantly lower compared to core cities in the Greater Bay Area, making it an attractive location for living and entrepreneurship [2] - The city of Guangzhou is leading in the acquisition of existing housing stock, which helps to address housing needs and reduce inventory pressure [3] Group 2 - The urban renewal market in China is projected to reach a scale of 8.6 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 18.3%, indicating a significant opportunity for investment [4] - The real estate service platform in China is facing challenges, with a reported loss of 20 billion yuan over four years, highlighting the need for a restructuring of business models [5] - Shanghai's land sales have exceeded 21.2 billion yuan, reflecting a differentiated supply strategy that aims to maintain market activity while responding to changing market demands [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost housing consumption, including the removal of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios and interest rates [19][21] - The focus on improving the quality of housing and promoting "good housing" construction is seen as essential for meeting the demand for better living conditions [20][22] - The city of Dalian has introduced eight policy measures to support the stable development of the real estate market, including financial incentives for homebuyers and increased supply of affordable housing [15][16]

Macroeconomic Insights - Consumption has exceeded expectations, showing a moderate recovery in economic activity, with May's data indicating a further rebound in consumption and a slight increase in production[4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains negative year-on-year, but core inflation has stabilized above 0.5%[4] - Industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, indicating a relatively mild production environment[4] Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased disturbances, particularly due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, which has led to a rise in gold prices[6] - Despite market adjustments, the overall trend remains a stable upward trajectory, with expectations for a structural bull market starting in the third quarter[6] - The A-share market is transitioning from quantitative to qualitative changes, with a significant focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption[6] Fixed Income Outlook - Recent weeks have seen a general decline in interest rates across various maturities, with short-term rates dropping significantly, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment[28] - The average rates for DR001 and DR007 have decreased by over 10 basis points, reflecting a downward trend in funding costs[28] - The current environment presents opportunities for investment in time deposits as rates are expected to continue declining[29] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector shows stable profitability, with credit growth slightly slowing but deposit growth rebounding[36] - The price adjustments following interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressure on net interest income, with a controlled decline in net interest margins anticipated[36] - The banking index has outperformed the broader market, indicating strong relative performance[35] Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a year-to-date cumulative sales area growth rate of -0.3% across 33 cities[38] - The government is emphasizing a multi-faceted approach to stabilize the real estate market, aiming to activate demand and optimize supply[38] - Policies are expected to support a gradual recovery in the real estate sector, with a focus on leading companies with strong market capabilities[40] Non-Banking Financial Institutions - The securities market remains stable, with daily trading volumes in major exchanges ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 trillion yuan[42] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade is significant, but domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption may mitigate some adverse effects[42] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to introduce significant policies that could enhance market confidence and investment value[43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Guangzhou's recent proposal to fully cancel real estate purchase restrictions, marking the end of a 15-year policy aimed at stabilizing the housing market and controlling price surges [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce has released a draft plan to optimize real estate policies, including the complete removal of purchase, sale, and price restrictions, as well as lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [1]. - The cancellation of purchase restrictions aligns with the central government's directive to grant local governments more autonomy in real estate market regulation, allowing for tailored policies based on local conditions [5][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of May, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in housing prices across 70 major cities, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, with a significant inventory of approximately 774 million square meters of unsold properties [2]. - The current market still faces challenges, including a large existing inventory and new properties entering the market, necessitating further efforts to stabilize and restore market confidence [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for a new real estate development model that balances market forces with government support, highlighting the importance of social capital in housing construction [11]. - The proposed model aims to establish a dual-track housing system that integrates both market and security aspects, with a focus on minimizing administrative intervention in the market [12].