【博时市场点评10月27日】沪指逼近4000点，创业板涨近2% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数上涨，涨幅均超1%，沪指逼近4000点。今日两市成交放量至2.35万亿，上周五两融 余额放量61亿元。推迟发布的美国CPI数据出炉，9月CPI同比增3%，高于前值，但略低于预期，其中能 源价格反弹对其形成带动，核心CPI增速较上月放缓，整体来看，9月美国通胀数据仍在回升，但幅度 有一定温和化趋向。同时，美国就业市场下行风险仍在，消费者信心指数仍然处于较低位。受此影响， 本周FOMC会议继续降息25bp的概率较大，今年共降息75bp仍是当前市场多数预期。中美吉隆坡经贸磋 商举行，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。从我方表述来看，双方沟通的问题包括造船和海事物流 关税、延长对等关税暂停期等等，"就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识"，"美方表达立场是强 硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的"，本周关注双方领导人会否在韩国见面。 消息面 当地时间10月25日至26日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共 识为引领， ...

Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions to maintain stability in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to ease capital requirements for large banks, with the new proposal expected to increase overall capital by 3%-7%, lower than the previous 9% proposal [2] - The Bank of Japan indicates that the economy and inflation are in line with expectations, with potential for interest rate hikes later this year, although no clear basis for immediate hikes exists [2] - The Swiss National Bank has published its interest rate decision meeting minutes for the first time, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriate under various circumstances [2] - The Bank of Korea maintains its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the third consecutive time due to concerns over rising real estate prices and mortgage loan growth [3] - The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%, marking the third rate cut since July [3] - The Bank of Indonesia has unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, aligning with inflation expectations [3] - Argentina's central bank has signed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [4] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the U.S. September CPI was below expectations, with overall inflation remaining stable, which may reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Moody's economists suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate this week due to weak trade performance and domestic demand [5] - Australian inflation data is set to be released, with expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not cut rates again this year due to rising prices [6] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will take place from October 27 to 30 [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report on Wednesday [8] - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8] - The European Central Bank will also announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a loose monetary policy by injecting liquidity into the banking system through a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, alongside a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in October, consistent with the previous month [1][2]. Group 1 - The PBOC's liquidity injection is aimed at alleviating pressure on the financial system due to the dual challenges of a major tax period and month-end cash flow [2]. - The central bank's actions are also intended to support the issuance of government bonds, with an expected net financing of over 1 trillion yuan in October, as the government has arranged for an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt [2][3]. - The continuation of MLF operations is expected to facilitate credit expansion and stabilize market expectations, ensuring that medium to long-term market interest rates remain stable [2][3]. Group 2 - The PBOC's recent monetary policy committee meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has continued to implement a net injection of liquidity through MLF operations, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance amid ongoing government bond issuance and economic challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations and Liquidity Injection - On October 27, the PBOC conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][2]. - With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing in October, the net injection for the month will reach 200 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of liquidity [1][2]. - The total net liquidity injection for October, including 4 trillion yuan from reverse repos, will amount to 600 billion yuan, consistent with the previous month [1][2][3]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance and Economic Support - The current period is characterized by significant government bond issuance, with an additional 500 billion yuan of local government debt planned for October to address existing debt and stimulate effective investment [1][2]. - Analysts expect that the net financing scale of government bonds in October will still reach 1 trillion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there is a possibility that the PBOC may implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut or increase bond purchases to further release liquidity [5][6]. - The necessity for stable growth has increased, and the PBOC aims to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations [5][6]. - The market liquidity is expected to remain stable and abundant before the end of the year, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on October 27, 2025, including the direction of price movement and corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Strong - biased Oscillation**: Index futures, copper, aluminum, nickel, carbonated lithium, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and natural rubber futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [2][3][4]. - **Weak - biased Oscillation**: Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, gold, silver, zinc, tin, and palm oil futures are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [2][3]. - **Wide - range Oscillation**: Iron ore futures are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping will attend the APEC Summit and visit South Korea; Premier Li Qiang will participate in multiple meetings and visit Singapore; Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held; the central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; relevant government departments emphasize development in various fields such as state - owned assets management, science and technology, and foreign investment [8][9][10][11][12]. - **International News**: The US has inflation data, government shutdown issues, and trade frictions with Canada; the eurozone economic data improves; Japan focuses on dealing with high prices [15][16][17]. 3.3 Commodity Futures Information - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally closed down, but global uncertainty still supports the demand for precious metals [18]. - **Energy**: Crude oil futures prices had a slight correction, and the supply - surplus background is expected to suppress price increases [18]. - **Base Metals**: London base metals showed mixed trends. Regulatory relaxation signals may have a positive impact on the financing environment of base metals [19]. - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar had a slight decline, and the US dollar index remained flat [19][20]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On October 24, 2025, major index futures contracts showed different trends, with short - term trends varying. In October 2025, different index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [20][21][22][25][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 24, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. On October 27, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [44][46][50]. - **Gold and Silver Futures**: On October 24, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a weak - biased trend. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [50][51][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 24, 2025, base metal futures showed different trends. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, different base metal futures are expected to have different trends [61][65][73]. - **Other Futures**: On October 24, 2025, other futures such as carbonated lithium, rebar, and crude oil showed different trends. In October 2025, they are expected to have different trends, and on October 27, they are expected to have different trends [86][91][119].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system through a series of monetary policy tools, including a 900 billion yuan MLF operation scheduled for October 27, 2025, which aligns with market expectations for liquidity support [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - In October, the PBOC will inject a net 200 billion yuan of MLF, following the maturity of 700 billion yuan, resulting in a total net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan for the month, consistent with the previous month [1][2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support government bond issuance and meet credit financing needs for enterprises and households [2][3] - The total amount of long-term liquidity remains stable, with MLF net injection being the eighth instance this year, although slightly lower than the previous two months [3] Group 2: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The ongoing large-scale issuance of government bonds and the introduction of new policy financial instruments are driving the demand for liquidity, with expectations of net government bond financing reaching over 1 trillion yuan in October [2] - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter to further support economic growth and stabilize employment, alongside continued use of MLF and reverse repos [4][5] - The overall loan growth in the first three quarters of 2025 has exceeded 5 trillion yuan, indicating a robust demand for credit across various sectors, including fixed asset loans and support for small and medium-sized enterprises [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system, including a 900 billion yuan MLF operation and a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in October [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On October 27, the PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [2]. - With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing in October, the net MLF injection for the month will reach 200 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2]. - The total net liquidity injection for October, including 400 billion yuan of reverse repos, amounts to 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of net injection compared to the previous month [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Future Measures - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's continued liquidity support signals a sustained accommodative monetary policy stance, especially in light of increasing external volatility and the impact of high tariffs on global trade [2]. - There is an expectation for further monetary policy tools to be employed in the fourth quarter, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and the resumption of government bond transactions to stabilize economic growth and employment [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to enhance liquidity management through various tools like reverse repos and RRR cuts to meet the demands of government bond issuance and increased credit supply [3].

Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a focus on enhancing social civilization and improving people's quality of life[2] - An estimated market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan will be added over the next five years through the promotion of key industry upgrades[8] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in the face of challenges[8] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Policies focus on new urbanization infrastructure construction, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for underground pipeline renovations during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[9] - The government will strengthen the top-level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, enhancing foundational research and core technology development[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to construct a scientific and stable monetary policy system, ensuring the smooth operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets[13] - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to support consumption and effective investment, maintaining financial market stability[14] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion yuan to local governments to enhance fiscal capacity and support effective investment[15] - This allocation is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to 2024, aimed at addressing existing government investment project debts[15] Real Estate Policy - Recent policies in cities like Chengdu and Chongqing focus on adjusting housing fund loans and promoting smart construction in the housing sector[17] - The issuance of infrastructure REITs is encouraged to support urban renewal projects[17] Trade Relations - There is a potential meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. during the upcoming APEC conference, with ongoing discussions on bilateral trade relations[18] - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU[19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese banking wealth management market** and its performance in Q3 2025, highlighting significant growth trends and challenges faced by the sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Size and Growth**: By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of the Chinese banking wealth management market reached **32.13 trillion yuan**, with an increase of **1.46 trillion yuan** in Q3 alone, indicating a seasonal growth that surpasses previous years [2][9]. - **Product Performance**: - **Fixed Income Products**: The scale of fixed income wealth management products grew from **26.8 trillion yuan** at the end of 2021 to **31.2 trillion yuan** by Q3 2025. Excluding cash management products, fixed income products increased from **17-18 trillion yuan** to **24 trillion yuan** [3][4]. - **Mixed Products**: Mixed wealth management products experienced significant volatility, dropping from over **2 trillion yuan** in 2021 to **0.83 trillion yuan** in Q3 2025, but have shown slight recovery with the stock market's improvement [4]. - **Investment Allocation**: In Q3 2025, a substantial portion of banking wealth management funds was allocated to deposits, increasing by **1.26 trillion yuan** and accounting for **27.5%** of total funds. Conversely, bond investments decreased from **56.8%** to **40.4%** [5][8]. - **Public Fund Holdings**: The scale of public funds held by banks was **1.34 trillion yuan**, a decrease of **46 billion yuan** from the previous half-year, with equity asset allocation dropping from **2.4%** to **2.1%** [6]. Challenges and Recommendations - **Yield Improvement**: The primary challenge for banking wealth management is to enhance yields in a low-interest environment, where over **40%** of funds are allocated to low-yield assets. Recommendations include increasing allocations to credit bonds with a remaining term of around **3 years** and adjusting credit ratings [8][9]. - **Market Impact of US-China Relations**: The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to have limited impact on the Chinese bond market, with domestic economic fundamentals being the key determinant. The focus should remain on short-term interest rate trends and potential policy changes [7][12]. Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: The banking wealth management market is projected to reach **33 trillion yuan** by the end of 2025, with further growth to **36 trillion yuan** anticipated in 2026, which will increase the demand for credit bonds with shorter maturities [9][10]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: A continuation of moderately loose monetary policy is expected in 2026, including potential rate cuts, which will create favorable conditions for government bonds, particularly in December [13][14]. Additional Considerations - **Impact of Domestic Demand**: The current state of insufficient domestic demand is putting pressure on various industries, including home appliances and automobiles, leading to price reductions to maintain sales. This trend is expected to challenge overall economic growth and inflation levels [15].

基于此，伍超明预计，下阶段货币政策将从四方面发力：一是继续择机运用降准降息等总量工具，同时 优化并创新结构性货币政策工具，充分发挥其作用；二是强化货币与财政、产业等政策的协同效应，解 决需求端不足问题；三是畅通货币政策传导机制，通过健全市场化利率调控框架，强化利率政策执行和 监督，推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降；四是加强预期引导和管理，通过强化政策沟通，清晰传达政策 意图，稳定市场预期，从而"充分释放政策效能"。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，展望后期，总量工具层面，降息降准的空间和时 点可能取决于这一轮金融和通胀数据的修复情况，以及应对基建项目开工财政端潜在增量的货币支持配 合诉求等，不排除年末到明年上半年再度降准降息的可能性。结构性工具方面，预计下一阶段央行将加 大对科技创新领域的金融支持力度。 在健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制方面，央行强调"维护股市、债 市、汇市等金融市场平稳运行"。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) 近年来，我国金融市场整体稳健运行。外汇市场方面，央行坚持市场在汇率形成之中的决定性作用，面 对多变的外部环境，保持了人民币汇率的基本稳定。经过多年发展，中 ...