The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it will leave interest rates unchanged, breaking a streak of three straight rate cuts amid uncertainty over the labor market and inflation. Fed policymakers voted to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The move follows three successive 25 basis point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year.Economic data showing a slowdown in the labor market along with inflation continuing to run hotter ...

Let's go to Washington DC with Edward Lawrence with the official decision. >> Well, the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. There were two dissenters in this.Steven Myron, board of governor as well as board of governor Christopher Waller both desented in this. Myron has dissented at every meeting that he has attended. His term ends on Saturday.Now, Governor Waller uh he is still in the running as one of the last four finalists for the Federal Reserve chairman. Uh now in the statement the Federal Reserve ...

1月29日，作为2026年首场利率决议，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，暂停了自去年9月以 来的连续三次降息步伐，符合市场预期。政策声明显示，与会者分歧仍存，理事米兰和理事沃勒对本次 利率决议持反对意见，支持降息25个基点。 为支持上述目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3-1/2至3-3/4个百分点。在考虑对联邦基 金利率目标区间进行进一步调整的幅度及时机时，委员会将审慎评估最新公布的数据、不断演变的前景 以及风险的平衡状况。委员会坚定致力于支持充分就业，并推动通胀回落至2%的目标水平。 在评估货币政策立场是否适当时，委员会将继续关注最新信息对经济前景的影响。如若出现可能阻碍委 员会实现其目标的风险，委员会将准备在适当情况下调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考虑广泛 的信息，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力及通胀预期，以及金融和国际形势的发展。 在本次货币政策行动中投赞成票的有：主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、副主席约翰·C·威廉 姆斯（John C. Williams）、迈克尔·S·巴尔（Michael S. Barr）、米歇尔·W·鲍曼（Michell ...

Cryptocurrency Market - In 2022, cryptocurrency prices struggled due to rising interest rates, but began to recover in 2023 and 2024 following the introduction of bitcoin ETFs [1] - By the end of 2025, cryptocurrency prices deteriorated while precious metals reached new highs [1] - The performance of major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum has been volatile, with many coins failing to keep pace with the rise of precious metals [11][12] Stock Market Performance - Major stock indexes, including the S&P 500, experienced a downturn in 2022 but rebounded significantly in 2023, with a 24% increase [2] - The S&P 500 continued to rise by 23% in 2024 and ended 2025 with a 16% annual return after recovering from a downturn related to President Trump's tariffs [2] - The stock market outlook improved as investors gained clarity on the end of rising interest rates in 2023 [3] Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times starting in 2022, which significantly affected various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies [4][7] - Interest rates are a primary tool for the Fed to influence economic activity, with lower rates stimulating growth and higher rates slowing it down [5] - The Fed has cut interest rates six times since September 2024, indicating a shift in monetary policy [5] Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The labor market showed signs of slowing but may be at a turning point, with inflation decreasing from its 2025 peak [6] - Economic conditions remain uncertain as policymakers await new data before making further decisions [6] Commodities Market - Precious metals have shown strong performance, while oil prices fluctuated between $70 and $85 in 2024, dropping below $60 in 2025 due to economic concerns [10][14] - The performance of commodities has been mixed, with gold and silver reaching record highs while oil faced challenges [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, with a significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections in January 2023, despite a relatively modest net injection in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On January 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 377.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan after 363.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The total net injection for the week reached 84.2 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC's operations in January included a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a net injection of 1 trillion yuan for the month, significantly higher than December's 300 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - As of January 28, the overnight repo rate (DR001) slightly decreased to 1.367% from 1.3674%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell to 1.5479% from 1.5833%, reflecting a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's proactive measures, including the early renewal of MLF, indicate a strong intention to support the liquidity in the market, especially ahead of the Chinese New Year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to February, potential liquidity disturbances are anticipated due to increased cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival and sustained high levels of government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement 14-day reverse repos and continue flexible operations with reverse repos and MLF to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [3]. - Despite the low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with controlled volatility in both DR007 and DR001 rates [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that the Canadian economy is adapting to structural challenges posed by U.S. protectionism, leading to high uncertainty in predicting future interest rate adjustments [2] - The central bank's economic growth forecasts remain consistent with previous estimates, projecting growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with an upward revision of the 2025 growth estimate to 1.7% due to less severe impacts from tariffs than anticipated [2][4] - The unemployment rate remains high at 6.8%, with rising youth unemployment and a decrease in the number of companies planning to hire [2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank expects inflation to remain around the 2% target, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply [2] - The latest inflation rate for December is reported at 2.4%, influenced by a base effect from temporary sales tax relief last winter, while the preferred core inflation measure has decreased to approximately 2.5% [4] - The Bank of Canada emphasizes the limitations of monetary policy, stating it cannot address structural damages caused by tariffs or specifically target sectors severely impacted by economic shocks [5] Group 3: Future Policy Considerations - The central bank's cautious stance reflects the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies and high geopolitical risks, leading to a neutral outlook on interest rates [3] - The Bank of Canada retains flexibility regarding future actions, indicating potential paths depending on the economic transition to a new trade environment and consumer spending trends [3]

当地时间1月28日下午2点（北京时间1月29日凌晨3点），美国联邦储备委员会将公布2026年首份利 率决议。 决策层内部投票格局与人事变动为会议增添变数。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰预计将继续投下反对票，坚 持主张更快降息，其任期将于1月31日届满。更受关注的是美联储理事沃勒的投票立场——作为特朗普 心目中下任美联储主席候选人之一，其投票倾向或影响提名前景：支持降息将契合总统降息诉求，反 之则可能错失提名机会。此外，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克等三位新轮值票委均倾向维稳利率，有望强 化暂停降息的共识。 政治因素的干扰成为本次会议的特殊背景。特朗普政府对美联储的干预力度持续升级，不仅对鲍威尔 展开刑事调查，还计划近期公布下任美联储主席提名人选，市场猜测提名或与本次利率决议同步公布 以转移焦点。鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上如何回应政治施压、是否透露任期结束后的去留规划，均成 为市场关注的额外焦点。分析人士指出，若鲍威尔选择卸任主席后继续留任理事，将成为制衡新领导 层的关键力量，维护美联储决策独立性。 市场对会议结果已提前反映，美股年初以来维持震荡，标普500指数估值处于历史高位，需货币政策信 号与科技巨头财报双重支撑。摩根士丹利 ...

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 2026 年 01 月 28 日 资金波澜再起 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 货币政策与流动性观点：税期过后即将迎来跨月，1 月最后一周政府债缴款规模 大幅上升至 5150 亿元左右，可能对资金面造成扰动，但需要注意的是 1 月央行 通过买断式和 MLF 净投放中长期资金 1 万亿元，可以看出对资金面的呵护，因此 跨月或也无需过于担忧。较为特别的是，上周隔夜资金出现上行的情况下存单利 率低位下行，一方面说明银行中长期负债可能较为充足，同业存单从 2025 年 11 月中旬开始除了 12 月第一周少量净融资不到 500 亿元外持续净偿还，截至上周 ...

市场分析师Ghiles Guezout表示，这一宣布可能最早就在今天。财经网站Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan也表示，特朗普官宣时机有可能特意安排在美联储1月政策会议期间。据分析，此举具有战略 意图，若美联储此次未降息，那么在会议期间宣布美联储主席人选将使白宫能够左右政策叙事。 特朗普可能提前公布下任美联储主席提名，甚至将官宣时间与本周美联储的利率决议同步。美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨03:00公布利率决议。 周二在爱荷华州的演讲中，特朗普表示："我很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。"至于很快是"多快"，市场 对此的猜测正在加剧。 当前市场押注的热门人选为贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德尔（Rick Rieder），投资者认 为他支持降息，且不会对美联储的独立性构成直接威胁。 截至发稿，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，里德尔的当选概率以46.1%位居首位，远超前美联储理事 凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）的29%；现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）的概率为 7.5%，国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Ke ...

决议的三大看点 由于许多美联储决策者认为央行目前处于或接近中性政策状态，因此，现在开始刺激经济的理由并不充 分——尤其是在今年财政政策即将启动以及关税上调对价格的影响仍存在不确定性的情况下。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月28日，美联储在北京时间周四凌晨即将迎来开年的第一场利率决议，当前，经济增长具备韧性、股 市接近历史高位且通胀高于目标水平，这些因素都表明美联储本次会暂停降息。但虽然预期维持利率不 变，但是这次决议在地缘政治、贸易不确定性、金银双高背景下的一次关键会议，所以对市场的指引可 能也更加复杂，重点关注主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会的措辞。 政策立场：对通胀和经济的评估，看美联储是否会调整对通胀"顽固"和经济"韧性"的描述？ 降息路径：对于下一次降息的暗示，面对最新的地缘政治局势，鲍威尔若释放更耐心信号，可能意味着 降息会被推迟到下半年晚些时候。 政治压力：美联储独立性的表态，特朗普正物色新美联储主席，任何关于政治压力影响决策的讨论都会 引发市场担忧。此前特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，并对主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，以期影响 央行的决策。 特朗普近期对加拿大、欧洲的关税威胁频发，导致市场集体震 ...