Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is significantly increasing its medium-term liquidity management through MLF and reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in August, the highest since February 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on August 25, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan after offsetting 300 billion yuan maturing this month, marking six consecutive months of increased MLF operations [1][2]. - The total net liquidity injection for August reached 600 billion yuan, double that of July, indicating the largest single-month medium-term funding injection in nearly six months [2][3]. - The operations reflect a deep coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, aimed at supporting the ongoing issuance of government bonds and meeting the financing needs of the real economy [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The liquidity tightening in the banking system was influenced by tax payments and the issuance of government bonds, which led to a temporary increase in short-term interest rates [4][5]. - The overnight repo rate (R001) peaked at 1.55% and the 7-day repo rate (R007) reached 1.58%, indicating a higher-than-seasonal level of liquidity tension [4]. - The PBOC responded by increasing open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 13.652 billion yuan from August 18 to 22, with a single-day operation reaching a recent high of 3.612 billion yuan on August 22 [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Direction - The PBOC's future monetary policy will focus on "policy implementation," with potential delays in rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, while maintaining flexibility in tool selection [6][7]. - The upcoming maturity of over 2 trillion yuan in reverse repos is expected to be managed without significant volatility, supported by the PBOC's proactive stance and fiscal spending at month-end [6][8]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to monitor liquidity conditions closely and may adjust policies to ensure a conducive environment for economic recovery [8].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Insights - The growth rate of general public budget revenue turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to July, ending the negative growth trend observed earlier in the year[4] - In July, the monthly growth rate reached 2.6%, the highest for the year, with both central and local revenue growth hitting new highs[4] - Major tax categories, including corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax, contributed 94% to the revenue growth, indicating a structural improvement in revenue sources[4][25] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to July, maintaining stability but showing significant divergence between central and local expenditures[5] - Central expenditure increased by 8.8%, while local expenditure growth fell to 2.5%, the lowest for the year, reflecting challenges in local fiscal management[5] - Social security and health expenditures showed strong growth, with social security spending increasing by 9.8% and health spending by 5.3%, while infrastructure-related expenditures remained weak[38] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, but the rate of decline improved, primarily due to better land transfer income[5] - Land transfer income decreased by 4.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market, while government fund expenditure surged by 31.7%[5] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerated, with completion rates reaching 63.1% of the annual quota, a 14 percentage point increase from previous values[5] Group 4: Policy Outlook and Risks - Future fiscal policies will focus on accelerating existing policies and enhancing new tools to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by recent government meetings[6] - Despite improvements in fiscal revenue and expenditure structures, challenges remain, particularly in meeting budget completion rates and addressing weaknesses in real estate-related tax revenues[6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, aiming to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for A-share market trends indicate a belief in a fluctuating upward trajectory, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies anticipating this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies consider current valuations to be reasonable, while 25% and 25.58% respectively view them as low [6]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Insurance institutions are particularly interested in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - There is a focus on investment themes including artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The primary risks identified by insurance asset management institutions and insurance companies for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. Group 6: Offshore Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of 2025, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [11].

Funding & Investment - A new RMB 500 billion (approximately USD 69 billion) policy-driven financial tool is being launched [1] - The tool will focus on strategic sectors including emerging industries and infrastructure [1] - Key investment areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumption, green and low-carbon initiatives, agriculture and rural areas, transportation and logistics, and urban infrastructure [1] Regional Activity - Multiple regions have been holding policy seminars and project preparation meetings related to the new policy-driven financial tools since May [1] - Some local governments are compiling project lists and specifying the amounts of funds to be applied for [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The LPR quote remained unchanged in August, and the monetary policy continued with a moderately loose tone. The signal of overall loosening was still unclear, which was in line with market expectations. Although the bond market was still disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market in the short term, its overall downward space was limited supported by the fundamentals and capital situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month change and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80%, up 0.50% month - on - month with a growth rate of 6.02%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.40% month - on - month with a decline rate of 0.80% [9]. - The US dollar index was 98.23, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1865, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.12%. DR007 was 1.57, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.48%. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 with a decline rate of 7.38%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.01%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.01% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The section includes figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It includes figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28]. IV. Spread Overview - It includes figures such as the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [31][38][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the，treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][72]. Market Analysis Macro Aspect - The Politburo meeting in July proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, manage the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, resolve local government debt risks actively and steadily, and prohibit the addition of implicit debts. On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds would be subject to value - added tax. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. On August 19, the Ministry of Finance announced market - making support operations to increase the supply of scarce bond types [1]. - In July, the year - on - year change of CPI was flat [1]. Capital Aspect - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds. However, the credit derivation efficiency was weak, and the medium - and long - term loans of residents and enterprises continued to shrink, with insufficient investment and consumption demand. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock was only 9%, mainly relying on government bond issuance to add leverage. The medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises remained sluggish, and a large amount of funds flowed to non - bank institutions [2]. - On August 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.473%, 1.534%, 1.596%, and 1.532% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [2]. Market Aspect - On August 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.43 yuan, 107.86 yuan, and 116.05 yuan respectively. The price change rates were 0.00%, - 0.10%, - 0.18%, and - 0.35% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.024 yuan, 0.137 yuan, 0.069 yuan, and 0.589 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase interest rate rebounded and the treasury bond futures prices fluctuated, it was recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - **Hedging**: There was medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors could use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

（原标题：毕马威报告：支持房地产市场止跌回稳，仍是今年经济工作重心） 毕马威中国最新发布的2025年三季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）显示，下一阶段经济运 行需要关注三方面问题：一是物价低位运行，将对下一阶段内需的修复带来挑战；二是房地产仍处于修 复阶段，今年4月以来，房地产修复进程再度出现波折；三是下半年出口或将走弱，全球经济增速放 缓，叠加美国正在设定新一轮的贸易协定，将对开拓新市场带来潜在负面影响。 报告认为，在新一轮政策性金融工具的支持下，基建投资有望企稳回升。房地产方面，将进一步因城施 策释放居民住房需求，并可能提高增量资金对房地产收储、城中村和危旧房改造等领域的支持，房地产 投资动能或将在下半年阶段性企稳。 从资金层面来看，报告预计，下半年的基建投资将有三类资金来源，一是尚待发行的增量政府债券。据 财政部披露，上半年已下达超长期特别国债资金预算6,583亿元，其中"两新"3,350亿元，"两重"为3,233 亿元，下半年还剩4,767亿元可继续推进。二是前期发行尚未使用的国债、一般债资金，上半年发行尚 未形成支出的额度在0.4万亿元，这部分资金也有望在三季度加速投放。三是关注政策性金融 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national general public budget revenue for January to July increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year and the cumulative growth rate turning positive for the first time [1][3] - In terms of central and local government, the central general public budget revenue was 58,538 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while local general public budget revenue was 77,301 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% [2] - The total general public budget expenditure from January to July was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with significant increases in spending on social security and employment, education, and health [1][2] Group 2 - The expenditure on social security and employment grew by 9.8%, education expenditure increased by 5.7%, and health expenditure rose by 5.3% during the same period [1] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds were accelerated, with local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributing to a 31.7% increase in government fund budget expenditure [1] - The monthly general public budget revenue for July was 20,273 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with both central and local revenues achieving their highest monthly growth rates of the year [2]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 19, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a slight tightening trend, with the overnight repo weighted average rate initially exceeding 1.50% but later falling back to around 1.47% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.03%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Data - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [14] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 249.06 billion yuan, with stamp duty revenue rising by 20.7% to 25.59 billion yuan, and securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 62.5% to 9.36 billion yuan [14] Group 6: Local Government Bonds - Guangdong Province plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, with an expected issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan [14] Group 7: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, projecting that the net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national general public budget revenue for January to July increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year and the cumulative growth rate turning positive for the first time [1][3] - In terms of central and local government, the central general public budget revenue for January to July was 58,538 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while local general public budget revenue was 77,301 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% [2] - The total general public budget expenditure from January to July was 160,737 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with significant increases in key areas such as social security and employment, education, and health [1][2] Group 2 - The expenditure in key areas was well-supported, with social security and employment spending growing by 9.8%, education spending by 5.7%, and health spending by 5.3% [1] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds were accelerated, with local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributing to a 31.7% increase in government fund budget expenditure [1] - The monthly general public budget revenue for July was 20,273 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with both central and local revenues showing the highest monthly growth rates of the year [2]