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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250520
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of a rush to export, but the traditional off - season for consumption is approaching. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,820, down 320 from the previous day; the trading volume was 82,415 lots, an increase of 10,104; the open interest was 171,235 lots, a decrease of 9,255; and the inventory was 61,913 tons, a decrease of 1,334 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,110, down 720; the Shanghai copper basis was 290, down 400; the spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed minor changes, with the spread between near - month and continuous - first contracts increasing by 10, and the spreads between continuous - first and continuous - second, continuous - second and continuous - third contracts decreasing [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,523.5, up 76; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 174,325; the COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.6635, down 0.02, and the total inventory weight was 170,380, an increase of 1,817 [2]. Industry News - **Mine Operations**: The Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has received environmental approval to extend its operation until 2028; the Antamina copper mine in Peru has started to resume production; some mines in Poland, Kazakhstan, and other places have suspended production due to various reasons [2][4]. - **Production and Expansion Projects**: Multiple copper mine and smelter projects have production, expansion, or suspension plans. For example, the ACS - Metalstopes metal mine's fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020; the second - phase project of some copper mines may increase production capacity in 2025 [4]. - **Trade and Policy**: The US budget resolution includes tax cuts and debt ceiling increases; the US economic data may lead to Fed rate cuts; trade disputes and export policies affect copper trade, such as the export approval and higher export tax for Indonesian copper concentrate [3][4]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The new orders and long - term order executions of refined copper rod enterprises have significantly decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased, with changes in raw material and finished product inventories [4]. - **Other Downstream Products**: The capacity utilization rates of various copper products such as copper wires and cables, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper clad wires, steel strips, copper foils, copper tubes, and brass rods may decline due to factors such as high copper prices, trade policies, and market demand [4].
暴增91%!AI需求带飞富士康Q1利润,但关税阴霾拖累全年展望
智通财经网· 2025-05-14 08:28
智通财经APP获悉,凭借人工智能服务器的强劲需求,全球最大的电子代工制造商富士康第一季度利润 飙升91%,远超市场预期。不过,由于关税不确定性为前景蒙上了阴影,该公司对全年业绩展望却较为 保守。 作为苹果(AAPL.US)最大的iPhone组装商,同时也是英伟达(NVDA.US)AI服务器的制造商,富士康今日 公布第一季度净利润达421.2亿新台币(约合13.9亿美元),远高于路孚特汇总的分析师平均预测的378亿 新台币。 此外,富士康还在墨西哥建设一座大型制造工厂,用于为英伟达生产AI服务器。而墨西哥同样是美国 总统唐纳德·特朗普关税政策的目标之一。 富士康一直在寻求拓展电动汽车业务版图,将其视为未来主要的增长引擎。 其旗下子公司富士康汽车科技(Foxtron Vehicle Technologies)与日本三菱汽车上周宣布签署谅解备忘录, 将合作供应一款电动汽车。 富士康(正式名称为鸿海精密工业)上月表示,受AI服务器热销推动,今年第一季度营收跃升24.2%,创 该季度历史新高。 在财报电话会议上,富士康董事长刘扬伟表示,美国关税政策将带来更多挑战,因此他对公司全年业绩 的预期较之前更为谨慎。 富士康在财 ...
突然疯涨!澳元,彻底站起来了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 21:45
Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]
港股收评:恒指微涨0.13%,大金融、军工股集体走强,弘业期货飙涨34%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-07 08:51
大型科技股集体转跌,小米跌近3%,阿里巴巴跌超2%,网易、腾讯跌超1%,快手、京东、百度飘绿。 (原标题:港股收评:恒指微涨0.13%,大金融、军工股集体走强,弘业期货飙涨34%) 5月7日,一揽子金融政策重磅推出,涉及降准降息、股市、楼市等。港股三大指数走出高开低走行情,恒生科技指数最终收跌0.75%,国企指数 跌0.23%;恒生指数勉强维持涨势,收盘涨幅缩窄至0.13%。 盘面上,大型科技股集体转跌,小米跌近3%,阿里巴巴跌2%,网易、腾讯跌超1%,快手、京东、百度飘绿;受降准降息利好影响,大金融股总 体活跃,弘业期货大涨超34%表现最为抢眼;印巴冲突继续升级,军工板块避险或迎估值重估,中船防务盘中涨超14%;濠赌股、石油股、煤炭 股、海运股齐涨。另一方面,特朗普欲征药品关税,生物医药股全天表现低迷,百济神州跌近8%;机器人概念股、半导体股普遍下跌。 具体来看: 半导体股普遍下跌,华虹半导体跌超3%,中芯国际、上海复旦跌超1%。 军工股集体大涨,中航科工涨6.35%,中船防务涨5.97%,大陆航空科技控股、航天控股涨超1%。 汽车经销商股走强,中升控股涨4.8%,永达汽车、和谐汽车涨超1%。消息面上,央行 ...
宏源期货沪铜日评-20250501
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-01 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250430
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 12:38
004月8日,贵州孵化公众号上发布消息称"谈疏铁钢铁理氟"耦合循环一体化项目在贵阳市开阳目双流镇测永村开工,2万吨/年六氟减酸锂等项目开工。据了解,该项目是以磷的主导 的全资源循环播合产业示范项目,中核铂目、贵州降化及其他产业方与贵阳市人民政府签署合作协议。通过建设140万吨七水顽棱亚铁联产40万吨铁白粉、60万吨磷旋铁、60万吨磷酸铁 理、15万吨碳酸锂、1万吨氟化锂、2万吨元氰磷酸锂、10万吨铜冶炼、磷石膏分解制动酸、热电联产项目、公铺工程项目来打造具有全球等务力频能源电池材料研发和生产基地。 0组:BSMT 降,4月海关公布的进口再生铜原锌数据显示,3月再生铜原料进口量为18.97万突物吨,环比减少28%,同比减少12.07%。折分来源国来看,前五来源国分别为日本、美国、泰 国、马来西亚和中国台湾,日本进口量达2.7万实物吨,环比增加16%,一举跃升至第一名,美国进口量2.2万弈物吨,环比减少29%,受中美贸易战不断升级。中国海关次对4月00日前 寓开美国随口,并于5月22号前到达中国港口并报关的再生铜原料进行关税豁免,但在此前,8月份进口贸易商早已停止从美国采购两生铜原料,3月份到港货物均是1、2月赛 ...
中国财长抵美却未见美国同行,特朗普再度变脸,开出取消关税条件?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 13:11
细看本次华盛顿G20财长与央行行长会议,仿佛中国与美国之间进行了一场精妙的"外交拉锯战"。在会 上,中国财长蓝佛安和中国人民银行行长潘功胜开始了一场积极而繁忙的外交活动:广泛会见南非、欧 盟、德国、日本、韩国等多国代表,却唯独没有安排与美国财长贝森特的会面。这样的举动背后,是中 方对美方缺乏诚意及实质行动的不满,更是对美国单方面压力政策的有力反击。 听起来似乎有些戏剧化,但这非常符合中国的策略:在面对单边挑衅时,不是硬碰硬,而是以柔克刚。 虽说"来而不往非礼也",但在国际政治的盘面上,"选择性沟通"成了中国的利器。随着G20会议的闭 幕,美国那边却显得有些慌张,不到48小时,特朗普再度变脸,突然放出了"撤销关税"的条件,试图重 新掌握主动。 在国际舞台上,经济大戏的主角有时会扮演出人意料的角色,而最近的中美贸易争端便是这样一幕扣人 心弦的剧目。美国意欲通过加征关税来进行经济施压,然而,中国却没有落入"关税陷阱"的圈套,反倒 在接下来的博弈中站稳了脚跟。 事情得从特朗普高调宣布加征中国商品关税说起,这不是简单的"贸易政策调整",而更像是向中国发出 的挑战。145%的关税增幅,这手段颇具"出其不意"之感,但不要忘 ...
浙江永强(002489) - 2025年4月29日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-04-29 09:18
Group 1: Product Overview - The company primarily offers three categories of products: outdoor leisure furniture, sunshades, and tents, with various subcategories based on material, structure, and usage [1] - The company is a leading player in the outdoor leisure furniture and supplies industry, collaborating with major global retail chains and maintaining a leading position in sales for key categories [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The company is currently in the order negotiation season for the 2025-2026 business year, with specific order volumes, especially from the U.S. market, still uncertain due to clients being in a wait-and-see mode [1] - If U.S.-China tariffs remain at current levels, significant impacts on U.S. market orders are anticipated [1] - The U.S. reciprocal tariff policy proposed on April 2, 2025, will affect future business, but the first quarter of 2025 has not yet been impacted [6][7] Group 3: Market Expansion and Sales - Revenue from emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East is currently low, but online sales channels (e.g., Amazon, independent sites) are growing faster than traditional B2B models [3] - Sales of the company's products in Canada account for approximately 10%-20% of total North American sales [4] - The company is actively expanding its domestic market while maintaining steady growth [4] Group 4: Strategic Planning and Cost Control - The company has no current plans for restructuring and is focused on managing operations effectively to respond to U.S. tariff policies [5] - The company is gradually internationalizing its production layout, with a factory in Vietnam already operational and another in Thailand under preparation [5] - Specific cost control measures include increasing R&D innovation, improving production efficiency, optimizing the supply chain, and strict budget management to enhance profitability [7] Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company emphasizes that the resolution of U.S.-China trade disputes relies on national negotiations rather than individual companies [5] - The company remains committed to its core market of outdoor leisure furniture and is expanding its product categories while adapting to global market changes [7]
沃尔玛被曝已通知中国供应商恢复发货:新关税成本将由美方承担
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-04-29 08:55
观察者网消息,美方挑起关税战前夕,美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司曾打起"将关税负担转嫁中方"的歪脑筋, 在被中方约谈后,这才开始想起来"找补"。 据香港《南华早报》4月29日报道,在中美贸易争端升级而导致货运量锐减后,最近几天,沃尔玛和其他 美国主要零售商已通知中国江浙地区的部分制造商恢复供货。 "我们的长期合作伙伴沃尔玛已经通知我们开始(向美国)发货,我们不需要承担(对中国商品)新关税 的额外成本。"4月28日,宁波一家大型文具办公用品出口商的副总裁透露,已收到沃尔玛的通知,要求它 们恢复对美国的正常供货。该公司表示,新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担。此外,江苏也至少有一家 出口商接到了需求复苏的备货通知。 另据香港《明报》4月26日报道,近期正举行的第137届中国进出口商品交易会(广交会)期间,多名出口 商也不约而同提到,在沃尔玛、家得宝(Home Depot)、塔吉特(Target)等零售巨头于当地时间4月21日 同美国总统特朗普会谈后,沃尔玛已通知中国供应商恢复发送因本月初关税战开打而暂时停运的货物,关 税由美方买家承担。 美国一家沃尔玛购物超市 资料图 "我们了解到,(美国)主要零售商已建议其中国供应商恢复 ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250424
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 01:17
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Trump's concessions in Sino-US trade disputes and on the issue of the Fed's independence have eased market concerns and weakened risk aversion. The domestic non-ferrous metals market opened higher, but Shanghai zinc faced upward pressure and fluctuated during the day. The import window is open, and April refined zinc imports may rebound to over 30,000 tons. With overseas mine disruptions and domestic TC remaining flat, and considering factors such as refinery maintenance, new production, and pre-holiday restocking demand, a short position on rallies is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai zinc futures showed different fluctuations. For example, the 2505 contract opened at 22,595 yuan/ton, closed at 22,745 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan or 1.18%. The 2506 contract (the main contract) opened at 22,325 yuan/ton, closed at 22,460 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan or 0.97%, with a decrease in positions. The 2507 contract opened at 22,220 yuan/ton, closed at 22,245 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan or 0.77%, with an increase in positions [7]. - The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.69, and the exchange-excluded ratio was 1.21, with the import window open. LME zinc stocks decreased by 7,200 tons to 185,025 tons, and the 0 - 3C spread widened to 42.09. There were rumors of a full shutdown at Peru's Antamina due to an accident, strengthening overseas mine support [7]. 2. Industry News - On April 23, 2025, the spot prices of 0 zinc in different regions varied. In Shanghai, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,815 - 23,040 yuan/ton. In Ningbo, it was 22,805 - 23,000 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, it was 22,835 - 23,120 yuan/ton. In Tianjin, it was 22,850 - 23,250 yuan/ton. The spot premiums in different regions also showed different levels and trends [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the Shanghai-London ratio and exchange-excluded ratio, and zinc inventories in seven regions and LME, but specific data details in this part are not further elaborated [10][15].