Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].

CBOT农产品晚间分析：巴西丰产叠加美豆生长状况良好，目前美豆价格还是高估了？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 SEA：印度 6 月棕榈油进口量环比激增 60%至 955683 吨，豆油进口量下降 9.8%至 359504 吨，葵花籽 油进口量增长 17.8%至 216141 吨。印度 6 月植物油进口总量为 1549825 吨，较 5 月的 1187068 吨增长 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8,788 | 0.46% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,994 | 0.10% | 8,020 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,424 | -0.16% | 9,474 | 0.53% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,232 | 1.37% | 4,228 | -0.0 ...

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The market demand is weak, but the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Considering the increase in imports later, the domestic supply and demand are marginally loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view after the rebound and pay attention to the pressure at 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of white sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of white sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The main contract holding volume increased by 4.46%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis increased by 2.04%, and the Kunming basis increased by 26.67% [1]. - **Industrial Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year-on-year. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% year-on-year, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% year-on-year [1][3]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season is difficult to solve before the new cotton is listed, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly in a stable range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract holding volume increased by 0.80%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.32% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis increased by 5.19%, and the 3128B - 05 contract basis increased by 5.71% [4]. - **Industrial Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month-on-month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, the import volume decreased by 33.3% month-on-month, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. However, due to the high temperature, the egg weight and laying rate have declined, and the supply of large eggs is tight. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the egg price may rise this week, but the increase may be limited [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 4.55% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39%. The basis increased by 3.95% [7]. - **Industrial Situation**: The price of day-old chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 2.13%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.37%, and the breeding profit decreased by 20.60% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, due to concerns about seasonal production growth, the futures price may face resistance and fall back. For soybean oil, the speculation on the US biodiesel theme has ended, and the market is affected by both positive and negative factors, showing a narrow - range shock adjustment [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51%; the price of 01509 is 9439, down 0.31% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50%; the price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9610, up 0.31% [10]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the inventory of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The weather in the US soybean producing areas is good, and the market is worried about the impact of US tariffs. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The soybean meal basis is stable, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84%; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract is 4101, down 0.10%; the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract is 3610, up 0.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80%; the price of Harbin soybeans is 3960, unchanged; the price of Jiangsu imported soybeans is 3660, unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in September increased, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, but as the remaining grain decreases, the downward space for the corn price is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the corn price. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306, down 0.60%; the price of corn starch 2509 is 2656, down 0.78% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430, down 0.41%, the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2700, unchanged, and the Weifang spot price is 2920, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import corn auction continued, the downstream deep - processing entered the seasonal maintenance period, and the wheat substitution squeezed the corn demand [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 14.74%, the price of pig 2511 is 13645, down 0.37%, the price of pig 2509 is 14345, down 0.21%, and the 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.94% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with prices in different regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industrial Situation**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.59%, the white - striped pork price remained unchanged, the price of piglets decreased by 3.20%, the price of sows remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.31%, the self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34% [17].

花生区间震荡。一方面，旧作花生货源集中，夏季建库成本有所抬升；另一方面，下游处于消费淡季，需求端支撑有限。新季花生整体种 植面积预计略增，且扩种预期已在盘面有所体现，同时主副产区天气暂未出现明显炒作题材。中期来看，现货成本对盘面形成支撑，但种 植面积增加已成为市场共识，后续盘面预期需关注天气及进口相关题材的演变。 上周，易盛农期综指先抑后扬。截至上周五收盘，该指数报收于1176.04点。 图为易盛农期综指日K线 棉花价格偏强震荡。美棉虽有所反弹，但反弹力度逐渐减弱。郑棉近期表现偏强，原因在于旧作棉花库存紧张，投资者做多情绪高涨。在 产业套保盘压制下，未来仍会以震荡偏强运行为主。 白糖维持震荡行情。近期ICE原糖10合约最低下探至15.44美分/磅。一方面，低价刺激需求释放，销区炼厂点价对盘面形成支撑；另一方 面，巴西部分地区糖价低于乙醇价格，市场对糖醇比回落存在预期。本轮内外盘糖价下跌过程中，炼厂采购已完成大半，盘面上方面临套 保压力。综合来看，郑糖难现趋势性行情。 菜粕价格区间偏强震荡。上周菜粕价格先跌后涨。CBOT大豆与加拿大菜籽价格均表现偏弱，内外盘走势明显分化。外围市场，美国大豆 及加拿大菜籽主产区天 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall processing demand for corn is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement the market supply, causing the market sentiment to turn slightly pessimistic and the price to decline slightly. However, the increasing storage and capital costs may limit the decline. The 2509 futures contract is mainly in a volatile correction following the spot market, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in corn - producing areas on new crops [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the corn main contract 2509 opened lower and fluctuated higher, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest price was 2325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2313 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The total index open interest increased by 21,480 lots to 1,626,312 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The port inventory is continuously decreasing but remains at a high level compared to the same period. Wheat still has an advantage in feed substitution for corn, and the substitution volume continues to increase. Imported corn is continuously auctioned, increasing market supply. Barley and other alternative imported grains show price advantages, and future imports may increase. Feed demand is improving, but feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, are not active in spot procurement, and turn to new wheat procurement, mainly conducting on - demand procurement and rolling replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises are continuously losing money, are entering the seasonal off - season, with a declining operating rate, and their inventories are relatively high and stable, mainly conducting rigid - demand procurement [7]. 2. Industry News - **US Corn Situation**: As of July 6, 74% of the corn in the United States was rated good to excellent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, reaching the highest level for the same period since 2018. As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, compared with the revised 1,380,943 tons of the previous week and 1,023,905 tons of the same period last year. As of July 2, the average price of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 US regions was 148 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from a week ago [8][10]. - **Other News**: India is seeking a trade agreement with the United States and may allow the import of some processed genetically modified agricultural products. The corn good - to - excellent rate in France is 78%, lower than 81% a week ago and 82% of the same period last year. Russia has lowered the wheat export tariff to zero and raised the corn export tariff by 3% from July 9 to 15, 2025. As of July 7, 2025/26, Ukraine's grain export volume was 77,000 tons, lower than 1,131,000 tons of the same period last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including corn futures and spot prices, port inventories, wheat prices, wheat - corn price spreads, corn imports, and feed production, with data sources from Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [7][9][11]

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Positive Outlook)**: Beans (★★☆), Soybean Meal (★★★), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Oil (★★★) [1] - **Sell (Negative Outlook)**: Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Hogs (★★★), Eggs (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It assesses the current market conditions, factors influencing prices, and offers short - and long - term outlooks for each product. Short - term factors such as weather, policy, and trade uncertainties are emphasized, while long - term trends like bio - diesel development and supply - demand fundamentals are also considered [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have stopped falling and rebounded, with prices slightly fluctuating. Northeast China's weather is favorable for soybean growth this week, and policy - driven trading had good results. Future weather and policies need close attention. US soybean优良率 is 66%, in line with market expectations, and future US weather shows no major deviations. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and the Dalian soybean market is currently in a state of oscillation [2][3] Soybean Meal - US soybean conditions are normal, and the domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. Brazilian premiums have risen significantly, and domestic oil mills' 9 - month shipping procurement progress has reached 70%. With many uncertainties in Sino - US trade and no bad weather in the US for now, the Dalian soybean meal market is expected to oscillate [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract has partially reduced positions, and prices have slightly corrected. The MPOB report shows that production meets expectations, but exports are lower, domestic consumption is higher, and ending stocks are higher than expected. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long run, bio - diesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - There is still a risk of local dryness in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area, but recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. CFTG funds hold a net long position in ICE rapeseed, which is at a historical high, and there is a risk of price pressure if funds reduce their positions. The domestic rapeseed oil market is weak, affected by the poor export performance of palm oil in the MPOB report. The rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn market is oscillating. Since July, due to the impact of CNGC auctions, the supply has increased and prices have declined, affecting market expectations. The supply from some grass - roots traders has increased, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Northeast China have generally fallen. The corn futures market is likely to continue oscillating [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures have increased in positions and prices, with the main contract hitting a new high. However, the spot price has weakened slightly, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The long - term production capacity pressure remains as the inventory of breeding sows increased in June, indicating a downward pressure on hog prices in the medium - to - long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have increased in positions and decreased in price, hitting a new low. The spot price is stable. July is a turning point between the off - season and peak season for egg prices, but this year's peak season may start later due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival. The 8 - month futures contract still has a premium of nearly a thousand yuan over the spot. In the long run, the long - term egg price has not bottomed out due to insufficient capacity reduction [9]

Report 1: Oil and Fat Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report, the bullish factors are realized. There is a risk of a new round of decline after the end of the current uptrend in crude palm oil futures due to concerns about production growth in July. Long - term, there is a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, after a sharp rise, Dalian palm oil futures may face short - term resistance around 8,650 yuan, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively stop falling around 8,500 yuan. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil market is currently less affected by its own fundamentals. The previous biodiesel theme has been digested by the market. At present, the market is mainly affected by the rise of new - crop soybeans in the US and trade relations. In the short term, the fluctuation range of CBOT soybean oil is small, and the narrow - range shock adjustment pattern will continue. In the domestic market, the overstocked oil mills force traders to lower the basis for sales contracts, which has a certain drag on the spot basis quotation. However, due to the expected limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter, the possibility of a significant downward adjustment of the basis quotation is not large. [1] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,170 yuan on July 9, up 40 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,920 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 0.33%; the basis of Y2509 was 250 yuan, up 35.87%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 137 to 22,826, a decrease of 0.60%. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan on July 9, up 120 yuan or 1.75%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,678 yuan, up 34 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of P2509 was 22 yuan, up 123.40%; the warehouse receipts increased by 184 to 854, an increase of 27.46%. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 9, up 50 yuan or 0.52%; the futures price of OI509 was 9,510 yuan, down 88 yuan or - 0.92%; the basis of OI509 was 170 yuan, up 431.25%; the warehouse receipts increased by 301 to 3,021. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to 4, a decrease of 33.33%; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 18 to 32, an increase of 128.57%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 6 to 60, an increase of 11.11%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 110 to - 530, a decrease of 26.19%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 60 to - 758, a decrease of 8.60%. [1] Report 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the short term, due to the continuous import corn auctions, the market sentiment is bearish, and the spot and futures prices are weak. As the remaining grain is consumed, traders are reluctant to sell, and the decline of corn prices slows down. Downstream deep - processing has maintenance plans and purchases on demand; the breeding end purchases as needed and mainly replenishes inventory on a rigid basis. The overall demand is supported by breeding consumption. On the substitution side, wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - protection policy, the wheat - corn price spread narrows, and the feed substitution increases, limiting the rise of corn. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward movement of corn in the third quarter. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is gradually digested, the decline of corn is limited due to the tight remaining grain, the market fluctuates narrowly, and it is advisable to pay attention to subsequent policy releases and temporarily stay on the sidelines. [3] 3. Data Summary - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; the basis was 41 yuan, up 5.13%; the north - south trade profit was - 1 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 105.26%; the import profit was 554 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 1.84%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning was 173, down 40 or - 18.78%; the open interest increased by 25,610 to 1,604,832, an increase of 1.62%; the warehouse receipts increased by 287 to 202,489, an increase of 0.14%. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04%; the basis was 23 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 to 57, an increase of 16.33%; the starch - corn spread on the disk increased by 3 to 358, an increase of 0.85%. The open interest increased by 10,948 to 298,266, an increase of 3.81%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 101 to 22,821, a decrease of 0.44%. [3] Report 3: Sugar Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the first half of June, Brazil's sugar production was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 696,000 tons or 22.12%. Brazil's increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline supports the raw sugar price. However, the global supply is becoming looser, which puts pressure on raw sugar, and the rebound height is limited. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The market demand is weak, the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, the continuous decline of raw sugar, the expansion of import processing profits, and the loosening of processed sugar quotes put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in imports later, the overall domestic supply - demand is marginally looser, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. [7][8] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,606 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of sugar 2509 was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.56%; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.54 cents/pound, up 0.39 cents or 2.41%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 173 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 9.49%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 7,728 to 287,247, a decrease of 2.62%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, a decrease of 0.45%. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.33%; the spot price in Kunming was 6,365 yuan/ton, up 485 yuan or 8.25%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,457 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.67%; the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,662 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or - 0.68%. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, up 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 6.465 million tons, up 283,600 tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 510,000 tons, down 17,200 tons or - 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 6.42 percentage points or 9.70%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points or 8.11%. The national industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 322,100 tons or - 9.56%. [7] Report 4: Cotton Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The downstream of the cotton industry remains weak, the overall demand is weak, the operating rate of textile enterprises continues to decline, and the finished - product inventory is accumulating. However, the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of textile enterprises has deteriorated from April to May, and there is no obvious continuous upward - driving force in the industrial fundamentals. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in the main production areas in Xinjiang and the downstream demand of the industry. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a higher range than before the rise in late June. If the downstream remains weak, there is still a risk of decline. [10] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.18%; the ICE US cotton main contract was 67.72 cents/pound, up 0.40 cents or 0.59%. The 9 - 1 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 80.00%; the open interest of the main contract increased by 3,542 to 546,763, an increase of 0.65%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 16 to 9,932, a decrease of 0.39%. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.06%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan or - 0.64%. - **Industry situation**: The commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 29.71 million tons or - 9.5%; the industrial inventory was 90.30 million tons, down 2.71 million tons or - 2.9%; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons or - 33.3%; the bonded - area inventory was 33.60 million tons, down 3.30 million tons or - 8.9%. The yarn inventory days were 27.23 days, up 3.37 days or 14.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days were 36.61 days, up 1.15 days or 3.2%. The cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 million tons, up 8.86 million tons or 22.6%. [10] Report 5: Meal and Soybean Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and market concerns about US tariffs keep the market at the bottom. The premiums of Brazilian soybeans for August and September shipments have slightly declined recently. As the time window for the arrival of US soybeans approaches, the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continues to rise, the operating rate improves, and there is no significant inventory pressure on soybean meal, and the basis is relatively stable. However, the subsequent supply is expected to be high, and the terminal trading is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand. The trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the market is bottom - grinding in the short term. [12] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,800 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,947 yuan, up 12 yuan or 0.41%; the basis of M2509 was - 147 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 8.89%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for September shipments was 37 yuan, up 4 yuan or 12.1%; the warehouse receipts were 42,250, unchanged. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 10 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of RM2509 was - 106 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 10.42%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipments was 155 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 34.32%; the warehouse receipts were 15,663, down 136 or - 0.86%. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 1 contract was 4,111 yuan, up 7 yuan or 0.17%; the basis of the main soybean No. 1 contract was - 151 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 4.86%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3,582 yuan, unchanged; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 78 yuan, unchanged. [12] Report 6: Pig Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The spot price of pigs fluctuates. Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the slaughter volume increases slightly, the market demand is weak, the price is stable and weak, and the market lacks upward - driving force. Currently, the breeding profit has returned to a low level, the market is cautious about capacity expansion, and there is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a wave of market conditions in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the live - pig inventory continues to be postponed, and the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan. [15][16] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The main - contract basis was - 185 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or - 123.87%; the futures price of pig 2511 was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or - 0.62%; the futures price of pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%. The 9 - 11 spread was 665 yuan, up 75 yuan or 12.71%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1,328 to 71,740, a decrease of 1.82%; the warehouse receipts were 447, unchanged. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Henan was 14,080 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,170 yuan/ton, down 1,030 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 14,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price in Liaoning was 14,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Guangdong was 16,590 yuan/ton, unchanged