证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 静观其变，谋而后动 ——2025年5月资产配置报告 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年5月8日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税缓和信号显现，但行业关税仍存变数： 内容目录 海外宏观 Ø 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 关税对经济影响逐渐显现，既定政策加快落地 Ø 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 u 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩至-0.3%，主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的拖累。后续美国经济走势 取决于关税谈判的进展（商品消费），以及减税政策的支持（私人投资）。 u 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量，对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致匹配—— 即全球基准税率降至10%，中国维持约60%高位。 u 对华关税政策方面，特朗普表示"对中国达成 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent macroeconomic data in the U.S. shows resilience in hard data while soft data is starting to weaken, indicating a potential "soft landing" for the economy [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded from oversold territory, returning to the March trading range, but the odds of further gains have diminished [1][4] - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor the pace of tariff negotiations and their transmission effects on the U.S. economy in the second quarter [1][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the "Trump trade" narrative, noting that market optimism initially focused on tax cuts while underestimating the impact of tariffs [2][9] - It points out that Trump's use of executive orders has been extensive, with at least 185 orders signed in the first 100 days, the highest for any U.S. president in that timeframe [2][12] - The report indicates that Trump's policy commitments, particularly in trade, immigration, and energy, have seen varying degrees of fulfillment, with overall fulfillment rates remaining low [3][22] Group 3 - The report analyzes the recent market optimism, attributing it to a combination of macroeconomic risk mitigation and positive earnings reports rather than a resolution of tariff concerns [4][30] - It notes that while hard data such as GDP and employment figures show resilience, consumer sentiment indicators have weakened, suggesting potential future economic challenges [4][31] - The earnings reports from major tech companies have been strong, while consumer goods companies express concerns over the impact of tariffs on their cost structures and profitability [4][39]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外政治 特朗普 2.0 百日新政复盘及后市展望 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《五一假期海外市场：强非农再压降 息预期》 2025-05-05 《美债天量的到期 vs 供给，哪个更致 命？》 2025-04-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：特朗普 2.0 百日新政兼具特朗普 1.0 政策延续和新政治周期 起点的双重特征，而在政策落地上，关税和财政政策成为最大的两个"预 期差"来源，二者在影响全球增长预期的同时，也使得特朗普 2.0 百日 新政内的大类资产走势与 1.0 时 ...

美国财长贝森特：2017年减税政策的持续将带来经济刺激。 ...

面对经济形势的不确定性及特朗普支持率下行的压力，美国共和党正努力在7月4日前，通过一项被称 为"又大又美"（big, beautiful）的税收支出法案，以提振经济并挽回政治声望。 然而，这个法案的主要内容却只是对现有减税政策的延续，新政措施又规模有限，实际经济效应可能被 关税政策削弱，其政治回报可能远低于预期。 对于特朗普政府而言，这场减税行动，更像是防守，而非进攻。 减税计划的"核心"：维持现状 美参议院财政委员会主席、共和党人迈克·克拉波（Mike Crapo）对此表示，法案若获通过，"将避免民 众的钱包被'洗劫'，并有望重现2017年那样的经济增长"。 不过，尽管共和党强调延续减税能刺激经济，但实际效果很可能"维持现状"多于"扩张经济"。对公众而 言，这只是"避免坏消息"，而非明显利好。 前美国国会预算办公室主任Douglas Holtz-Eakin表示，自从共和党去年11月完全控制政府，美国人就可 以放心地认为减税政策将会延长： "围绕税法本身并不存在巨大的不确定性，没有人认为它不会延长。" 特朗普的新主意：给选民看得见的利益 特朗普显然意识到，仅仅延长旧有政策，"旧瓶装旧酒"不足以激发选民热情。因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the actions taken by Donald Trump during his second term in office, highlighting his efforts to fulfill campaign promises and the mixed results of these initiatives. Group 1: Economic Policies - Trump has made claims about reducing inflation, with rates dropping from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025, but the legality and effectiveness of his tariff policies remain uncertain [1] - His tax reduction plans are expected to decrease national revenue, complicating debt repayment, and the national debt increased significantly during his first term despite similar promises [2] - Trump has implemented tariffs on foreign goods, which he believes will protect American interests, but this has led to market volatility and mixed results [6] Group 2: Immigration Policies - There has been a significant decrease in attempted illegal border crossings, from nearly 250,000 in December 2023 to about 7,181 in March 2025, although comparisons to previous administrations are still pending [3] Group 3: Energy Policies - Trump has promised to reduce energy costs significantly, with some predictions indicating a potential drop in gasoline prices by up to 15 cents per gallon due to his tariff policies [5] Group 4: Social and Cultural Policies - Trump has taken steps to cut funding for educational institutions that do not align with his administration's values, targeting universities like Harvard and threatening to revoke their tax-exempt status [11] - His administration has also sought to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, impacting cultural institutions and federal funding for certain projects [12] - Trump has signed orders to restrict transgender athletes from competing in women's sports, reflecting his commitment to conservative social policies [13] Group 5: Legal and Judicial Actions - Some of Trump's initiatives have faced legal challenges, raising questions about their long-term viability and the potential for judicial review to impact his policy agenda [1]

美国财长贝森特：（特朗普政府）认为我们与众议院和参议院都"处于（减税）协议之中"。 希望我们到7月4日（美国独立日）能敲定税收政策的下调幅度。 总统特朗普已经表态，不考虑调整百万富翁的税收政策。 ...

民调支持率持续下滑之际，美国总统特朗普试图通过关税收入为美国人减税以挽回民心，但这一计划 很可能难以实现。 当地时间4月27日，特朗普在其社交媒体平台上表示，在关税收入的支持下，"许多人的所得税将大 幅减少，甚至完全取消"，并承诺重点为年收入低于20万美元的人群减税。 2025.04. 27 本文字数：2069，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：即便特朗普进一步提高关税税率，数学上也仍不可能用关税收入替代所得税。 然而，经济学家普遍认为这一计划缺乏可行性。耶鲁大学预算实验室经济学主任特德斯基（Ernie Tedeschi）认为，即便特朗普进一步提高关税税率，数学上也仍不可能用关税收入替代所得税。美 国外交关系委员会（CFR）本月发布的研究更是直指这一说法"荒谬离谱"，并称"关税对经济的破坏 性影响使得这一目标显得不切实际且缺乏责任感"。 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 东方汇理资产管理投资研究院全球宏观研究主管普拉丹（Mahmood Pradhan）对第一财经记者表 示，关税不会给美国带来显著的收入增长，反而更可能导致消费减少和需求下降。同时，"美国当前 的财政政策仍缺乏具体细节，提升联邦支出的效率也远未达到承诺的目标" ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's plan to use tariff revenue to replace income tax is deemed impractical by economists, as it cannot generate sufficient revenue to offset income tax losses [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy has significantly impacted the global economy, raising concerns about rising prices among American consumers and leading to a decline in his approval ratings [2] - A recent Ipsos poll indicated that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs, with 69% believing his administration is failing to curb rising prices [2] - The Yale University budget lab estimates that the tariff policy could generate $2.4 trillion in revenue from 2026 to 2035, but after accounting for negative dynamic revenue effects, the average annual revenue would be only $176.9 billion, less than one-third of Navarro's optimistic projection [3] Group 2: Feasibility of Tax Replacement - The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) argues that the idea of replacing income tax with tariffs is unrealistic, citing that the effective tariff rate of 28% would only yield an additional $511 billion in revenue after considering import transfer effects [3] - The bottom 90% of income earners contribute $576 billion in income tax, which exceeds the expected tariff revenue, highlighting the inadequacy of tariffs to replace income tax [3] - The increase in tariff rates could lead to a shrinking tax base, further complicating the feasibility of using tariffs to replace income tax [3] Group 3: Political and Legislative Context - Trump's proposal to eliminate income tax for low-income earners may inadvertently harm them by removing refundable tax credits, leading to a net loss in purchasing power [4] - The potential for tariffs to replace income tax is limited, with estimates suggesting that tariffs could only cover up to 40% of income tax revenue, necessitating very high tariff rates that could trigger an economic recession [4] - Trump's administration is seeking to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which is set to expire in 2025, and has proposed various tax cuts, raising concerns about how to fund these initiatives [5]

匈牙利总理欧尔班：尽管面临全球贸易战争，将继续推行减税政策。 ...