期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内库存高企，油厂开工率回升加剧库存压力，油厂合同量大幅回落，贸易商滚动补库、 饲料厂按需采购，成交清淡。需求端，终端追涨情绪有限，成交谨慎，市场关注大豆到港及通关政策 传闻。市场情绪推动下，豆粕期价虽迎来止跌反弹，但持续性不强。短期豆粕期价延续近强远弱格局， 期现表现分化，整体低位震荡为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday View**: No specific intraday view is provided - **Medium - term View**: The reference view is "oscillating". The core logic is that in December, the domestic thermal coal price weakened continuously, and the decline exceeded expectations. The coal market is weak due to unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain is high, and the price is weak. Stabilization needs the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". The intraday views are "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - The coking coal market has a neutral and relatively loose supply - demand pattern, but post - New Year downstream winter storage and resumption expectations provide some support, and the continuous decline of thermal coal may trigger new supply adjustment measures [5]. - The coke market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, but the demand - side expectations have improved, and the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the futures main contract remaining in low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 740,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Import**: As of December 20, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 26,498 vehicles, a 23.0% increase from the high base in November, which suppresses domestic coal prices [5]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Overall supply is stable, demand remains low, the supply - demand pattern is neutral and relatively loose, and coking coal inventories in all industrial chain links have increased [5]. Coke (J) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the combined daily output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1,094,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,265,800 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Both supply and demand of coke have stabilized at a low level, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak, but demand - side expectations have improved [6].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on December 26, with platinum leading the rise by over 9%, followed by lithium carbonate with over 8%, and silver with over 6% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1599.42 points, up 28.36 points or 1.81% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2207.01 points, up 39.13 points or 1.80% [1] Group 2 - Precious metals showed strong performance, with silver breaking through the 18,000 yuan/kg mark and platinum leading the market with a 9.29% increase [2] - The bullish sentiment in precious metals is supported by expectations of monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, and strong investment demand, although there are signs of overheating in trading [2] - Palladium, which has weaker fundamentals, saw a decline of 2.08%, leading the losses in the domestic commodity market [2] Group 3 - Industrial metals rose collectively despite being in a demand off-season, with copper prices nearing 100,000 yuan/ton and international copper reaching over 90,000 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic industrial policies are positively impacting industrial metals, particularly aluminum, with expectations for capacity optimization following a recent announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission [3] Group 4 - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant drop of 1.31%, with market sentiment cooling despite strong spot prices [4] - The dual焦 (coke and coking coal) market experienced a decline, with main contracts dropping over 1%, although there was some recovery during the day [4] - Current supply and demand dynamics in the dual焦 market are leaning towards looseness, with potential policy changes expected to positively influence coal prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term outlook of oscillation [1][5][6]. - Shanghai rubber is likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern on Friday [5]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [6]. 3. Summary by Category Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Mid - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Stronger operation [1] - **Core Logic**: With domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas entering the off - season, the supply pressure of domestic full - latex has significantly decreased. The downstream domestic auto production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. The industrial logic is strengthening, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has increased supply - side disturbances, enabling Shanghai rubber to break through the triangular convergence pattern and move upwards [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Mid - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Stronger operation [1] - **Core Logic**: The downstream domestic auto production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected, but the potential supply pressure is prominent, weakening the market driving force. The rising price of crude oil futures has strengthened the cost support [6].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：受圣诞节假期影响，CBOT 市场休市，国际市场指引暂时缺位。国内市场，贸易商多持观 望态度，密切关注油厂大规模停机计划，普遍延续滚动拿货策略以规避库存风险。当前美豆上涨部分 抵消了人民币升值对进口成本的压制，成本驱动因素趋于多元，豆粕期价在底部区间呈现反复震荡格 局。短期来看，汇率波动、外盘节奏及国内供需节奏交织影响，市场缺乏单边趋势动力。豆粕期价仍 将维持震荡格局。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are strong, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that during the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the market trading atmosphere cools down. Also, after the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, the US dollar index is weak, and gold prices have risen this week. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity, and in China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The current high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: This week, gold prices have risen, with New York gold breaking through $4500 and Shanghai gold breaking through 1000 yuan. After the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, and the weak US dollar index is beneficial to gold prices. During the overseas Christmas holiday, the domestic trading atmosphere weakens, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity. In China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. During overseas holidays, Shanghai copper continues to operate strongly, and there is a risk of short - term price decline due to long - position liquidation. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

人民财讯12月26日电，国内商品期货开盘，铂主力合约涨超9%，钯涨超6%，沪银涨超5%，国际铜、碳 酸锂涨近3%。 （原标题：国内商品期货开盘 铂主力合约涨超9%） ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most prices rising, particularly precious metals, with platinum increasing by 9.99% [1] - All new energy materials saw an increase, with lithium carbonate rising by 4.85% [1] - Most base metals experienced gains, with international copper rising by 2.89% [1] Group 2 - Energy products mostly increased, with fuel oil rising by 1.50% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also saw an upward trend, with soybean meal increasing by 1.35% [1] - Chemical products generally rose, with 20 rubber increasing by 0.67% [1] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly increased, with corn rising by 0.50% [1] - The black series experienced declines, with coke falling by 1.75% [1] - Non-metallic building materials all declined, with glass dropping by 1.33% [1] Group 4 - Shipping futures all declined, with the container shipping index (European line) falling by 0.28% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market opened mostly higher on December 25, with mixed performance across various commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Shanghai gold decreased by 0.17% [1] - Shanghai silver increased by 1.23% [1] - Shanghai copper rose by 1.18% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw a rise of 0.23% [1] - Iron ore experienced a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Coking coal fell by 0.44% [1] - PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) increased by nearly 1% [1]