Market Overview - Initial jobless claims reported at 236,000, with the trade deficit narrowing to $52.8 billion [1] - The market is experiencing a healthy rotation, particularly within the technology sector, rather than a broad sell-off [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Oracle's market reaction is viewed as a sign of rational exuberance, indicating a healthy market environment despite its stock being under pressure [2][4] - Broadcom's upcoming earnings are anticipated to shift market narratives, especially in the TPU space, which is seeing increased interest [5] Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - The market is struggling to break above the key resistance level of 6900, which is crucial for bullish sentiment [6] - A healthy rotation is noted, with potential for a rally if growth and value sectors continue to attract positive inflows [7] Geopolitical Factors - Mexico's Senate approved a 50% tariff on certain goods starting in 2026, impacting trade relations with China and other countries [12][13] - This move could lead to retaliatory actions from China, affecting commodities like copper and automotive parts [15][16] Commodity Market Trends - Copper and silver prices are rising, driven by a weaker dollar and increased retail buying, with silver up 3% and copper up 1.7% [18][23] - Upcoming elections in Chile, a major copper producer, could influence copper mining stocks positively [22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Heraeus Precious Metals indicates that gold, silver, and platinum group metals prices may experience a downward trend in the first half of 2026, following previous highs driven by strong demand and macroeconomic factors [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Precious metal prices are expected to undergo consolidation after significant increases, with gold likely to have the strongest support due to robust central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1] - Industrial demand weakness and recession risks pose significant downward pressure on platinum group metals, while silver's price may be more volatile due to industrial headwinds [1][2] - The report anticipates that the global market will face both economic and geopolitical challenges, with major economies like the US and Europe experiencing slower growth and persistent inflation affecting monetary policy [1] Group 2: China's Role and Future Demand - China remains a key factor in global demand trends, with economic stimulus measures potentially supporting industrial activity, although adjustments in photovoltaic policies may slow silver demand growth [2] - Initiatives related to green hydrogen and fuel cell technology in China's 14th Five-Year Plan may drive long-term demand for ruthenium and iridium [2] - The precious metals market may be influenced by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry, with low real interest rates and sustained inflation supporting investment demand [2]

金价在4,245美元阻力位下方整理，形成紧凑格局，预示潜在突破前的价格压缩。 降息预期持续支撑金价，因收益率走低与美元走软维持着利好宏观环境。 4381美元的历史高点仍是关键上行磁石，近期价格屡次在4200美元下方订单密集区获得支撑。 黄金仍是第四季度表现最强劲的宏观资产之一，尽管短期波动加剧且多次测试日内支撑位，仍维持在较高水平。图表显示市场拒绝下跌，即便价格在4,245 美元枢轴位下方停滞。每次回落至4,100美元中段区域都引发新的买盘兴趣，表明黄金下方结构性支撑依然完好。 ICMarkets认为这正是市场蓄势待发时的典型表现。黄金并非在分发筹码——而是在蓄势待发。 金价强势仍由降息预期驱动 随着美联储重启12月降息预期，黄金持续受益： 降息削弱美元，为黄金创造升值空间 收益率下降降低持有无收益资产的机会成本 政策过渡期投资者倾向转向防御性资产 市场尚未定价激进宽松周期——但单次降息预期已足以支撑金价维持高位。 地缘政治不确定性与大宗商品需求的韧性进一步强化了这一基本面支撑。 阻力位下方压缩 图表显示若干关键结构性特征： 历史高点4381美元形成明确外部流动性池。 金价反复测试4245美元短期高点，但始终 ...

市场当前最受关注的焦点，无疑是今晚出炉的美国9月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数。机构普遍预期：整 体PCE年率将从8月的2.7%小幅回升至2.8%；核心PCE年率(剔除食品与能源、为美联储最重视的通胀指 标)预计继续持稳于2.9%。 任何显著偏离预期的结果，都可能瞬间改变市场对美联储2025年降息路径的预期，从而引发美元与白银 的剧烈双向波动。若数据温和或低于预期，将进一步强化降息预期，银价有望一举突破近期压力区；反 之，若通胀再度超预期升温，则可能暂时打压降息预期，给白银走势带来阶段性回调压力。 周五(12月5日)亚欧时段，现货白银维持上涨，再度试探上方阻力，经历昨日暴跌后今日银价站上58美 元关口，美联储降息预期成多头最大"护身符"，地缘政治不确定性重新升温支撑银价涨势。 【要闻聚焦】 近期公布的经济数据指向经济有韧性而降息会继续，叠加多位联储官员发声支持12月降息，市场预期再 度转鸽，风险偏好回升利好白银。 俄罗斯总统普京周四再度放出强硬言论，明确表示美国提出的乌克兰停战方案中有"不可接受"的条款， 并重申乌军必须从顿巴斯地区完全撤出，否则俄军将采取进一步军事行动。这一表态彻底打破了短期内 达成和平协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which could impact interest rate expectations and silver prices significantly [1][3]. Market Overview - As of December 5, the silver price is trading at $58.25 per ounce, with a daily range between $56.85 and $58.51 [2][1]. - The U.S. dollar index is around 98.90, indicating a stable dollar environment [1]. Economic Indicators - Despite strong U.S. employment data, with a 53% decrease in planned layoffs and initial jobless claims at a three-year low, there remains an 85% expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3]. - The PCE data, a key inflation indicator for the Fed, is set to be released, and its outcome could either reinforce or alter the current rate cut expectations [3]. Technical Analysis - The silver market shows early signs of fatigue, with a bearish divergence between silver prices and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a cooling of upward momentum [4]. - Key support for silver is identified at $55.00; a decisive break below this level could lead to further declines towards $50.00 [4]. - On the upside, if silver prices break through the historical high of $58.98, it could target $60.00, supported by a strengthening trend indicated by the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 28.56 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global trade and investment are under increasing pressure due to financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, with global economic growth expected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - The report highlights that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, making trade closely linked to global financial and monetary conditions [1] - Developing economies are projected to grow at 4.3% in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but they face higher financing costs and increased vulnerability to sudden capital flow changes [1] Group 2 - The UNCTAD has proposed a series of practical reform suggestions aimed at reducing financial vulnerability and enhancing predictability, including improving multilateral trade dispute resolution mechanisms and updating trade rules [2] - Recommendations also include filling gaps in trade and investment statistics, reforming the international monetary system, and strengthening regional and domestic capital markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty are increasing pressures on global trade and investment, with a projected slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - The report highlights that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, emphasizing the critical role of dollar liquidity and cross-border payment systems in international trade activities [1] - Developing economies are expected to grow at a rate of 4.3% in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but they face higher financing costs and are more susceptible to sudden changes in capital flows [1] Group 2 - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) proposed a series of practical reform suggestions aimed at reducing financial vulnerability, enhancing predictability, and strengthening the synergy between trade, finance, and development [2] - Suggested reforms include improving multilateral trade dispute resolution mechanisms, updating trade rules to fit current economic conditions, addressing gaps in trade and investment statistics, reforming the international monetary system, and strengthening regional and domestic capital markets [2]

昨日黄金又是过山车的走势，高位震荡回踩向下，同时保持高位抗跌走势。晚间最低回落4163，不过尾盘又强势收回失地。黄金如果继续保持这样的走势， 那么不排除后续日K会震荡上升，盘面重新回到多头主导。 黄金虽短期面临获利回吐压力，但美联储降息预期、央行强劲购金、美债收益率回落、美元走弱以及地缘政治不确定性等多重因素合力推动向上突破。临近 年末，展望未来，5000美元目标可能并非遥不可及。大家多多关注美联储和关键数据的表现。 早盘反弹继续关注4245和4265附近阻力，接近不破轻仓空。回测先关注4183附近，进一步下破关注4163附近支撑。目前来看多空都有机会，反复性强，短线 处于高位反复迂回洗盘，小周期可能伴随反复的冲高回落。积存金关注945-940。日内操作有两个难点：一是支撑快速刺破容易被扫损，二是回踩后持续抗 跌拉升难以形成趋势性回落。保持好自己的节奏，最近不去追单，注意下操作手法 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 反弹4245轻仓试空，突破关注4265附近压制 回落4183不破多，破位关注4163支撑 积存金关注945-940 更多实时关注李槿后续 投资有风险，入行需谨慎 昨日超神回落多拿下 ...

张尧浠：美联储更宽松周期前景升温、金价预酝酿进一步牛市 另外，美元指数也持续运行在200日均线阻力下方，周图也处于200周均线下方，月图也是处于之前2年多的震荡区间下方，综合来看，未来一年前景，美 元指数都难以对金价造成趋势性的压力。反而有利好的预期；另外，美债10年期收益率，已高位震荡2年多，附图指标则显示顶部背离，这暗示后市将有 趋势性的走低，而会大幅且持续的利好金价。 上交易日周二(12月2日)：国际黄金触底回升收跌，收于5-10日均线上方，相对于周一的倒垂，有回落调整出尽转看涨的预期，故此，后市仍可以低多看涨 反弹为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4231.36美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4235.97美元，之后则持续回落走低，于欧盘初触及4181美元一线，并反弹回升，延续 至美盘初触及日开盘价附近，但最终再度遇阻回落跳水，录得日内低点4163.81美元，并再度触底回升，收盘于4205.63美元，日振幅72.16美元，收跌25.73 美元，跌幅0.61%。 影响上，金价日内因技术阻力压制和雷同于11月13日的形态看空预期，而获利了结先行走低，并在美盘一度跳水，但由于支撑买盘推动，以及特朗普积极 暗示更 ...

今日思路： 关注4250美元区域。如果金价反弹至这些位置附近并出现上涨乏力迹象（例如看跌的K线形态），可以考虑轻仓试空。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 根据当前市场情况，短期趋势依然偏多，但需要密切关注关键阻力的突破情况。 美联储降息预期强劲：市场对美联储在12月降息的概率预期维持在85%以上，甚至达到87.4%。这是当前推动金价上涨的核心动力。关键技术阻力：4242- 4250美元区域是近期的重要技术阻力位。4264美元和4275美元则是更高的压力位。 美元表现疲软：美元指数走软，创下数月来的最差单周表现，这使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来说更便宜。潜在获利了结：在金价近期持续上涨 （上周涨3.9%，11月涨5.5%）后，部分投资者可能选择卖出锁定利润，导致短期回调。 地缘政治不确定性：俄乌和谈进展等事件仍带来不确定性，潜在地缘风险会催生避险需求。 关注4200-4210美元以及4189-4196美元这两个支撑区域。若金价回落至此区域并出现企稳信号（例如看涨K线组合），可考虑轻仓博取反弹。 如果金价有效跌破4180美元的支撑，短期上涨结构可能被破坏。反之， ...