固收+优选组合今年以来跑赢二级债基指数 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 03 日 金 融 工 程 固收+基金上调成长暴露，债基优选组合持续贡献超额 ——固收+及纯债基金月度跟踪（2025 年 12 月） 投资要点： 各类型固收+产品收益表现均有回落 金 今年以来，股票型和混合型固收+净值波动较大，本月各类固收+ 产品收益均有回落。11 月混合型、股票型和转债型固收+分别下跌 0.5%、0.42%、0.16%。 固收+基金上调成长配置 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 将固收+基金净值对各类资产的风格纯因子收益回归，得到固收+ 基金在各类资产上的风险暴露。对比本月与上月的债券风险因子暴露， 我们发现固收+基金整体在债券久期配置上相对持平，在信用策略上更 加谨慎。在股票资产的风险因子暴露测算显示，固收+基金在成长风格 上的暴露有所增配，略微增加了市值因子的风格暴露，股票仓位基本 持平。 我们通过胜率、赔率等多个维度每季度优选 10 只基金等权配置， 构建固收+基金优选组合。从业绩表现来看，今年以来优选组合相对二 级债基指数有一定超额，今年以来跑赢二级债基指数 0.28%。 不同久期类型纯债基金业绩分化 中长期纯债型基 ...

Market Outlook - The report emphasizes a preference for large-cap stocks in December, suggesting a potential shift from growth to value investing as the market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and significant domestic meetings at year-end [1][11] - Historical data indicates that from 2015 to 2024, large-cap stocks have shown a higher probability of outperforming small-cap stocks in December, with a 70% success rate for large-cap over small-cap [12][14] Liquidity and Capital Supply - The report anticipates stable net inflows of incremental capital in December, with foreign capital activity expected to increase [3][20] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, which is likely to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the market [20][21] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, textiles, and petrochemicals are expected to perform well, while sectors that previously saw significant gains, like technology and automotive, may underperform [2][3] - The report highlights that sectors related to AI and technology are likely to attract new capital due to the issuance of several technology-focused funds in December [11][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommended indices for December include the CSI 300, STAR Market 50, low-volatility dividend indices, and technology indices related to Hong Kong stocks [12][11] - The report suggests that the performance of the CSI 300 and dividend indices is likely to be stronger in the latter half of December, coinciding with the earnings forecast period for listed companies [17][18]

截至收盘，中证500指数下跌0.6%，中证1000指数、科创100指数均下跌0.9%，中证2000指数下跌1.0%，创业板中盘200指数下跌1.7%。 平安证券研报称，当前基本面复苏信号仍有待观察，市场情绪低位回升。短期风格上，12月小盘风格有望占优，成长风格占优趋势仍在，建议关注小 盘、成长风格。 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该 | | --- | --- | --- | | -1.0% | | 2023年 | | | 152. 5倍 | 4 | | 中证500ETF易方达( | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证500指数 | | | | | 该指数由全部A股中剔除沪深300指 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该指数自 | | 数成份股及总市值排名前300名的 | | | 发布以来 | | 股票后,总市值排名靠前的500只 | | | | | 股票组成,完整覆盖11个中证一级 | -0. 6% | 32.0倍 | 59. | | 行业 | | | | | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数滚动市盈率 | 该指数自 | | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The market experienced a collective decline in the afternoon, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals and energy showing gains, leading to an increase in related indices [1] - The Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index rose by 0.4%, while the Guozhen Value 100 Index increased by 0.3%, and the Guozhen Growth 100 Index fell by 1.0% [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (E Fund, 159222) has seen continuous net inflows for 16 trading days, totaling over 100 million yuan [1] Index Performance - The Guozhen Value 100 Index, which employs a "high dividend + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" screening system, focuses on value stocks and has shown stable historical performance [1] - The Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index selects stocks based on free cash flow rates, combining high dividends with growth potential [1] - The Value ETF (159263) and Free Cash Flow ETF (E Fund, 159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on related investment styles [1] Sector Composition - The Guozhen Growth 100 Index consists of 100 stocks with a significant focus on growth, with over 65% of its composition in information technology and materials sectors [3] - The Guozhen Value 100 Index is composed of 100 stocks with a strong value orientation, with over 65% in consumer discretionary, financials, and industrial sectors [3] - The Free Cash Flow Index includes 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, with over 70% in industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors [3]

晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 基金研究 权益市场全面迎来修复，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 风险偏好持续上升，成长风格占据市场主导——公募基金 2026 年年度投资策 略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额大幅上升——2026 年融资融券年报 证 公司研究 券 盈利能力提升明显，各业务发展稳步推进——民士达（920394）2025 年三季 报点评 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.03） 固定收益研究 研 行业研究 究 报 "冰雪假"拉动相关消费，盈峰溢价受让索菲亚股份——轻工制造&纺织服 饰行业 12 月投资策略展望 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 固定收益研究 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001 ...

开源证券表示，风格上依然看好成长风格延续。市场在经历6-10月的上涨行情后，目前出现短期的"行 情调整+科技回调"的特征。历史上类似的"牛市"当中，阶段性（60日）回撤较大的情况总共出现过13 次。统计13次回撤，可以发现调整前后风格延续概率稍大于风格切换。我们认为前期超跌的一些成长品 类的机会已经显现，且随着机构参与度和风险偏好的提高，核心优质AI硬件也有修复的机会。 成分股中，北京君正涨超15%，南大光电、润泽科技、中际旭创、蓝思科技、新易盛等跟涨。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，创业50ETF（159682）已连续两个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超2200万元。 12月1日，市场早盘震荡拉升，创业板指盘中涨超1%，半导体、消费电子等板块涨幅居前。 创业50ETF（159682）跟踪创业板50指数，权重股包括宁德时代、东方财富、新易盛、中际旭创、胜宏 科技、汇川技术、阳光电源、天孚通信等。该ETF还配置了场外联接基金：联接A（017949）、联接C （017950）。 热门ETF中，创业50ETF（159682）半日涨1%，午后开盘走势略有回落，截至发稿涨0. ...

廖市无双：本轮调整就此结束了吗？20251130 摘要 上证指数跌破上升趋势线，进入 A-B-C 结构调整，短期反弹不代表调整 结束，向下空间有限，不宜杀跌。关注 3,700-3,750 买入区间。 恒生科技和科创 50 回调幅度较大，调整较为充分，不建议盲目止损。 恒生科技关注 5,360 附近支撑，科创 50 在 1,250 或以下具有买入价值。 券商板块 ETF 份额大幅增加，但近期滞涨，处于重要变盘点，下跌空间 有限，具备补涨潜力，是赔率较好的板块，可关注红色圈圈位置的买入 机会。 成长型指数表现突出，中证 1,000 和国证 2000 涨幅较大，国证 2000 率先回补缺口，量化私募和游资青睐中小盘成长股。 市场风险偏好提升，TMT 板块表现强劲，通信、电子、传媒等科技类板 块领涨，防御性板块走弱，表明市场风险偏好有所恢复。 美联储降息预期波动影响市场风格，7 个科创创业人工智能属性 ETF 获 批预计融资规模达数百亿，利好成长风格，但拥挤度改善有限。 医药板块调整充分，拥挤度消化，受益于美联储降息预期和 FDA 换人， 具备增量价值，超配程度为历史最低之一，有望迎来上涨机会。 Q&A 近期市场表现 ...

Group 1 - The market adjustment has temporarily concluded, and December is an important macroeconomic window, suggesting early positioning for the spring rally [2][10][14] - The core driving force of the current bull market remains unchanged, with liquidity still in a loose state and the fundamentals undergoing mild recovery [10][18][23] - The recent market adjustment was primarily caused by the inability to form strong macro expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the transmission of overseas liquidity risks [10][12][14] Group 2 - The growth style is expected to continue, with historical data indicating a higher probability of style continuation rather than switching during market adjustments [3][25][26] - The current market environment is conducive to small-cap stocks, which tend to outperform in a loose liquidity context [4][28][30] - Small-cap stocks are likely to lead the next phase of the recovery due to their characteristics and the current macroeconomic conditions [4][28][34] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on a dual-driven approach of technology and cyclical sectors, with opportunities emerging in underperforming growth industries [5][39] - Specific sectors to consider include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside cyclical beneficiaries from PPI improvements [5][39] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and cyclical sectors to capture potential market movements [5][39]

东吴证券表示，伴随着总量层面量价齐升、以及科技成长领域展现出的高景气、叠加低基数效应，全A 营收和利润同比增速开启反弹。从不同行业风格角度出发，成长风格引领本轮的盈利周期修复。机构此 前提到，预计明年6月前后是"成长→价值"风格新一轮转换的关键窗口。微观结构视角上看，虽然反内 卷政策持续发力，但对于价格的提振或需要3到4个季度左右的验证期；以海外算力链为主的方向，仍将 受益全球AI浪潮下的高额资本开支。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued upward trend in growth style stocks, with the Guozheng Growth 100 Index rising by 1.1% as of midday trading [1] - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index focuses on A-share stocks with prominent growth characteristics, with the top three industries being electronics, communications, and computers, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the index weight [1] - The index emphasizes key areas such as semiconductor equipment, domestic computing chips, and high-speed optical interconnects, which are aligned with national strategic technology sectors, providing investors with a streamlined approach to invest in high-quality growth stocks [1]