提前布局春季躁动 策略研究团队 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 2025 年 11 月 30 日 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 市场调整告一段落，12 月是重要宏观窗口，建议提前布局春季躁动 近期市场出现了一定的调整，但我们认为当下已经可以更加积极。12 月将召开 政治局会议和中央经济工作会议，这两个会议为 2026 年的经济发展定调，具备 较强的指引作用，市场可能有所反应，同时春节较往常偏晚，春季躁动可能前 置，建议提前布局。11 月开始的调整主要由宏观上无法形成强预期、地缘政治 紧张和海外流动性风险传导引发。与 4 月类似，海外流动性风险传导加速了近期 的调整，但调整幅度较小，且已经有所修复。而本轮牛市的核心驱动力没有发生 改变：流动性还处在宽松的阶段，而基本面也在温和修复的阶段。且政策呼吁提 振资本市场以及长钱入市的基础下制度牛的大背景没有改变。此外，参考我们 8 月底发布的报告《证券化率看牛市》，证券化率可以作为判断指数牛空间的标志。 而目前证券化率 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.