1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the oil and fat market has improved, and it is waiting for the fermentation of bullish factors. The protein meal market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The corn/starch market has shown stable to weak spot prices and an increase in positions on the futures market. The hog market is experiencing price fluctuations due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The natural rubber market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The synthetic rubber market has seen a temporary improvement in sentiment as raw material prices have stabilized. The cotton market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The sugar market is testing its lower support in the short term. The pulp market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The double - glue paper market has strengthened following the pulp market. The log market is oscillating at the bottom [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment has improved, waiting for bullish factors to ferment. The outlook is that palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil will oscillate. - **Logic**: Optimistic trade sentiment led to the rise of US soybeans on Wednesday, and domestic oils stopped falling and rose yesterday, with palm and rapeseed oils being relatively strong. The US government is in a "shutdown," and the market doubts the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly. From an industrial perspective, US soybean data updates are suspended. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and the market expects a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield. China's tariff adjustment policy boosts the export demand for US soybeans. Brazilian soybean planting is going smoothly. The arrival of imported soybeans in China may be at a relatively high level, and the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, and the probability of inventory accumulation is high. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low due to increased consumption in biodiesel. India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. With the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to increase [2][6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are oscillating at a high level, and the positive impact of China's purchases has been gradually digested. Attention should be paid to the US soybean yield and the growth of South American soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased, but the discount is more favorable than that of the US. Brazilian soybeans will enter a critical growth period in November, and the impact of La Nina should be monitored. CBOT US soybeans are approaching a reasonable valuation, and new bullish factors are needed for an upward movement. Domestically, in the short term, the import and crushing profit of the January futures contract is still in the red, and profit margins need to be provided to stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the quantity of China's US soybean purchases will be gradually realized. The South American weather and the strength of the fourth - quarter consumption season will determine the upward potential of soybean meal. In the long term, there is expected to be no gap in soybean supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot prices are stable to weak, and the futures market has increased positions and risen. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable with local fluctuations. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as the temperature drops, and the supply pressure has eased. However, there are bottlenecks in transportation capacity, leading to increased freight costs and a slow - to - resolve shortage in the sales area. In November, the market is still under the pressure of new grain listing. The expected increase in production in the Northeast will drag down prices. Feed - using enterprises are mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force for prices before large - scale inventory building occurs [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices are oscillating. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The supply and demand are loose, but farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices after the price weakens has led to a low - level oscillation of hog prices. In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of sows capable of reproduction was at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased from January to September. It is expected that the hog slaughter volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has started to decline. With the dual drivers of "policy + losses," the reduction of sow production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026. The demand has increased slightly as the temperature drops. Group farms are actively selling, and the average weight has decreased. The enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The rebound of the natural rubber market is in line with the rebound rhythm of commodities. The fundamental situation can provide some bottom support. The RU warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled, and the new rubber registration progress is slow, with a lower valuation compared to NR. The import pressure in November may be relatively large, which will put pressure on the upside of NR. The short - term spread between RU and NR may be repaired. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no further macro - driving force, the rubber price may face downward adjustment pressure. However, as it enters November, there may still be room for speculation about domestic rubber - cutting suspension and RU warehouse receipts, so the downside space is relatively limited [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and sentiment has temporarily improved. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The BR main contract has switched to the January contract and continued to rebound, returning to the level before Tuesday's decline. The improvement in sentiment is due to the better trading volume and temporary stabilization of butadiene prices, along with a strong rebound in the overall commodity market. The price of butadiene dropped rapidly last week to a record low this year. The supply - demand contradiction in the market has intensified, and the cautious attitude of downstream buyers has led to poor trading volume. Although the downstream buyers have gradually entered the market after the price dropped to a low level, and the supply side of butadiene intends to stop the price decline, buyers are still cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the improvement in trading sentiment can continue to support the butadiene price. In the medium term, the supply - demand of butadiene will remain in surplus in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may decline further [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The short - term outlook is for the January contract to oscillate within a range, and the long - term outlook is for a bullish oscillation. - **Logic**: The increase in the new - season Xinjiang cotton production is less than expected, and the purchase cost has increased, which supported the cotton price to oscillate strongly in October. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the reduction of import tariffs on US cotton are expected to promote US cotton exports to China and China's textile exports next year, but the short - term impact is limited. With the listing of new cotton, the supply has increased, and the cotton price is under pressure. At the same time, the profit from hedging has gradually emerged, and there is hedging pressure on the upside of the cotton price. The upper pressure on the January contract is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The market is testing its lower support in the short term. The long - term outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak of Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased, which may marginally improve the loose international trade flow. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has increased slightly year - on - year, and the market's expectation of Brazil's production increase has not changed. Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan have increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import controls on syrups and premixes and the expected exhaustion of import licenses have made the domestic market relatively strong, there is still downward pressure on the domestic market as the southern sugar enters the peak crushing season [14][15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The recent rise is due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper driven by the increase in packaging paper prices and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper, as well as the increase in wood chip prices. From a medium - term perspective, the previously traded bearish factors have not completely ended. Although the bullish factors in downstream demand may bring short - term bullishness, the upward space is expected to be limited. On the fundamental side, the demand for softwood pulp has been low due to formula adjustments in recent years. There is export pressure from overseas to China, and the import price in US dollars remains weak. The hardwood pulp market has an obvious surplus situation. Although the demand has increased seasonally, it is difficult to support the price above the production cost. The futures main contract price is approaching the prices of some brands, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium under the weak supply - demand background. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts this year will also put pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some bullish factors, such as the obvious increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected marginal improvement in cultural paper demand in November and December. The paper pulp futures market is inclined to a wait - and - see attitude [16]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The market has strengthened following the pulp market. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The price of double - glue paper in Shandong has remained stable. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption - side support is insufficient. The supply - demand relationship is still weak, and the support from wood pulp is limited. The new production facilities are operating stably, and the paper supply surplus is still severe. The demand side has seen the start of publishing tenders, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the overall downstream consumption is still weak. Some factories are facing greater production and sales pressure. Although some paper enterprises have announced price increase plans in early November, the market is waiting and seeing, and most prices will remain stable at the end - of - month settlement. The publishing tenders have not yet started intensively, and the demand side has no obvious positive factors. The upstream wood pulp price is under pressure, and the cost support for double - glue paper is limited. The price of double - glue paper is expected to stabilize [17]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The market is oscillating at the bottom. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The log market has remained weak and stable this week. On the one hand, traders are actively selling, and the decline in the sales volume of laminated wood has put pressure on the price of sawn timber, leading to downward pressure on the spot market. On the other hand, New Zealand log suppliers have adjusted their quotes, and there will be a greater pressure of blue - stained timber on the arrival of ships in the future, which will also put pressure on the spot market. The log peak season is gradually ending, and the port outbound volume will decline. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, the log inventory may accumulate again. Although the market has a short - term bearish sentiment, the log valuation is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited. The speculative side is advised to wait and see [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each variety. For example, protein meals are strong, while some oils are weak, and other commodities are mostly in a state of oscillation [1][8]. - International factors such as US government policies, South American weather, and global trade relations, as well as domestic factors like consumer demand and import/export volumes, significantly influence the market [3][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils - **View**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak due to strong production expectations for Malaysian palm oil. Domestic oil trends were divided, with palm and rapeseed oil oscillating weakly. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean export demand led to a decline in US soybeans. The US government's "shutdown" affected data updates. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be high, slowing down the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Russian rapeseed harvest may increase domestic rapeseed oil supply [7]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate weakly, while soybean oil may oscillate [7]. Protein Meals - **View**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are rising, and the market remains strong. - **Logic**: The retention of the 10% tariff on US soybeans by China drove up domestic soybean meal prices, and rapeseed meal followed. Internationally, Chinese purchases are expected to boost US soybean exports in the next 2 - 3 months. The US soybean supply - demand balance may tighten further if the yield is revised down. Brazilian old - crop soybean exports decreased in October, but it has a price advantage. In China, short - term import crushing margins are still in the red, but the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter may drive up prices. Medium - to long - term factors such as Chinese purchases, South American weather, and consumption will determine the price increase [2][3][8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will oscillate, and domestic soybean meal will oscillate with an upward bias [3][8]. Corn/Starch - **View**: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally stable. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as storage conditions improve, and transportation bottlenecks increase costs. New grain listing pressure may still affect prices later. With high yields, the cost of gathering grain at ports may decrease, and the demand for building inventories is not strong [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: Futures rebounded with reduced positions, while spot prices remained weak due to high supply. Short - term, second - fattening is affected by price rebounds. Medium - term, the large number of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to increased pig supply in the fourth quarter. Long - term, sow culling is expected to accelerate, reducing supply pressure in the second half of 2026. Demand is slightly increasing with the drop in temperature, and group farms are actively selling [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly in the short - term, and long - term prices may be supported by sow culling [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market oscillates and adjusts, with a bearish sentiment. - **Logic**: The market is still weak, but the decline has slowed. The difference in valuation between RU and NR may lead to a narrowing of the spread. Without new macro - level support, prices may continue to decline. However, there may still be speculation about the end of the domestic tapping season and RU warehouse receipts [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at the bottom with high elasticity, and short - term focus is on expanding the RU - NR spread [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market rebounds from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded after reaching a low. Lower prices increased downstream purchasing interest, and the stabilization of butadiene also supported the market. However, butadiene supply is expected to be in surplus in the next two months [13][14]. - **Outlook**: Before the supply - demand imbalance of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. Cotton - **View**: The main contract oscillates, with limited upside and downside. - **Logic**: New - season cotton production in Xinjiang is lower than expected, and higher acquisition costs supported prices in October. Macro - level benefits such as improved Sino - US trade relations may promote cotton imports and textile exports in the future, but the short - term impact is limited. New cotton listings and hedging pressure may limit price increases, while cost support restricts price drops [14]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long - term, the cotton market may reduce inventory and prices may rise [14]. Sugar - **View**: The strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but new sugar supply from the Northern Hemisphere will increase. Brazil's production is slightly higher than last year, and Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. Domestically, demand from August to September was average, and industrial inventories increased. Although import controls and limited import quotas supported prices, the overall supply is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to long - term, prices will oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. Pulp - **View**: The market rises on high volume, and the enthusiasm for cash - and - carry arbitrage increases. - **Logic**: Futures prices rose due to expectations of rising paper prices and increasing wood chip prices. However, the long - standing negative factors in the pulp market, such as low demand for softwood pulp, over - supply of hardwood pulp, and high - cost futures contracts, limit price increases. There are also some positive factors, such as rising packaging paper prices and improving cultural paper demand [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [17]. Offset Printing Paper - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: On November 5, prices in Shandong remained unchanged. The supply of new production capacity is stabilizing, and the supply surplus is still severe. Demand from publishing tenders has started, but social orders are not strong. Some paper mills plan to raise prices in early November, but the market is waiting and watching [18]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to new factors affecting market sentiment [19]. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Log prices in ports remained stable this week. Traders' active sales and weak sales of laminated wood put pressure on prices. New Zealand's log imports may face problems such as blue - stain wood. However, the current low valuation and inventory in Jiangsu limit further price drops [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate at the bottom, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for speculators [21]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index shows that the commodity 20 index increased by 0.18% to 2526.40, the industrial product index remained unchanged at 2213.59, and the PPI commodity index decreased by 0.17% to 1335.37 [179]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on November 5, 2025, was 931.46, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 0.52%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.44% [180].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests selling call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests exiting long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum suggests buying on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver suggest range trading [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash's 01 contract suggests a bearish approach [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; Apples and jujubes are expected to trade weakly [1] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; Corn is expected to trade weakly; Soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; Oils are expected to trade weakly [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, the third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will enter a period of consolidation [5] - The main trading line of the Treasury bond market is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and the motivation for the market to drive yields down continuously is not strong [5] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices, with a positive sentiment. The supply of coking coal and rebar may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract [10] - The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels [11] - The aluminum market may face a correction after the previous over - rise, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels [12] - The nickel market has an uncertain supply due to new policies, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - The tin market has an expected improvement in supply and weak downstream consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [18] - The precious metal market, including gold and silver, is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range [19] - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets are expected to be weak and volatile, mainly due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports [22][25][26] - The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand, and it is recommended to trade in a range [30] - The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory [32] - The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels [33] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to trade in a range due to factors such as increased global production and consumption and a decline in inventory [37] - The PTA market is expected to trade at a low level due to factors such as weak oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation [39] - The apple and jujube markets are expected to decline due to factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption [39][40] - The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts [43] - The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly [44] - The corn market is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47] - The soybean meal market is expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - The oil market is expected to be volatile at a low level, with differences in performance among varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares opened low and closed high. After the end of major events, the market enters a vacuum period and is expected to trade in a range. It is bullish in the medium to long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts declined. The market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand and rising prices. The supply may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar declined. The static valuation is neutral to low, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and wait until after the new year to consider the 05 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price reached a record high and then declined. It is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels or trade in a short - term range [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of Guinea's bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is being depleted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels for different products [12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has adjusted the RKAB policy, which may affect the supply of nickel ore. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the price of nickel iron is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the supply of tin ore is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand [18] - **Silver and Gold**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut, the precious metal market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to US ADP employment data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 4700 level [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production and inventory. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2400 level [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 6500 level [26] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - **Urea**: The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand. It is recommended to trade in a range of 1600 - 1700 for the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory. It is recommended to trade in a range of 2230 - 2330 for the 01 contract [32] - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6900 and 6600 support levels for PE and PP respectively [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand have changed, with increased production and consumption and a decline in inventory. The price of seed cotton is high, and it is expected to trade in a range [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation. It is expected to trade in a range of 4400 - 4700 [39] - **Apple and Jujube**: The apple and jujube markets are affected by factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption. The prices are expected to decline [39][40] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts and pay attention to secondary fattening and group enterprise sales [43] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and weather [44] - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by new grain listing and supply - demand factors. It is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2050 - 2170 range and 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [47] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the reduction of US soybean import tariffs and the expected adjustment of the US soybean supply - demand report. It is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - **Oils**: The oil market is affected by factors such as the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It is expected to be volatile at a low level, and it is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the sugar market is currently transitioning from a bear to a bull phase, with potential resonance between fundamentals and macroeconomic factors expected around 2027 [1][36] - Over the past 20 years, the sugar price has been significantly influenced by the global supply-demand gap, with recent years showing that production cuts have become a more prominent driver of market trends [1][36] - The historical analysis indicates that domestic and international sugar prices have shown a high degree of consistency, with variations primarily in the amplitude of fluctuations and the timing of bull-bear transitions [2][36] Group 2 - The article outlines five major historical cycles of sugar price fluctuations since 2000, detailing the factors influencing each phase, including weather conditions, domestic production, and international market dynamics [4][5][6] - The ENSO index is highlighted as a critical tool for observing sugar price cycles, with El Niño and La Niña phenomena having complex impacts on global sugar production and prices [15][33] - The domestic sugar market has been affected by government policies, including tariff quotas established after China's WTO accession, which have stabilized the import quota at 1.945 million tons [4][20] Group 3 - The analysis shows that sugar demand has a strong positive correlation with global consumption trends, with average annual growth rates of 2.07% from 2000 to 2011, declining to 0.55% since 2012 [8][10] - The article emphasizes that the domestic sugar price tends to be more resilient during downturns due to protective measures for the domestic sugar industry, while international prices are more market-driven [22][28] - The current market dynamics suggest that the 01 contract is performing strongly, particularly in the context of seasonal demand fluctuations [31][36]

Group 1 - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $68 per barrel in 2025 and may drop to $60 in 2026, which would be cheaper than five years ago [1][3] - Global oil inventories are expected to be 65% higher in 2025 compared to the peak in 2020, leading to stagnant oil demand due to the rise of electric and hybrid vehicles [3] - A decrease in oil prices is expected to ease inflationary pressures, with food prices projected to drop by 6.1% in 2025, benefiting consumers in developing countries [3] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices are projected to surge by 21% in 2025, increasing agricultural costs and squeezing farmers' profits [3][5] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with gold prices projected to rise by 42% in 2025 and an additional 5% in 2026, while silver is expected to increase by 34% [3][5] - The World Bank advises countries to invest in technology and improve market transparency to withstand price fluctuations, indicating a need for proactive economic strategies [5]

Core Insights - The China Meteorological Administration predicts the onset of La Niña conditions in late autumn, with significant temperature fluctuations expected during the winter season [1][2] Group 1: La Niña Conditions - La Niña is expected to develop in late autumn and persist until early 2026, with a lower probability of forming a prolonged La Niña event due to its anticipated short duration [2] - The equatorial central-eastern Pacific is forecasted to remain in a neutral-cool state until September 2025 [2] Group 2: Impact on Winter Climate - Under La Niña conditions, the average winter temperature across China is expected to be close to or above the normal levels, with overall reduced precipitation [2] - The distribution of precipitation is anticipated to be "more in the north, less in the south," with a lower risk of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events in southern regions [2] - Specific areas such as southeastern East China, eastern Central China, and eastern South China are expected to experience less precipitation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The winter climate in China is expected to be influenced by the La Niña phenomenon, which is predicted to last until early 2026, leading to average national temperatures close to or above normal levels this winter [2][6][7]. Temperature Trends - In October, the national average temperature was 11.1°C, close to the historical average, with a "warm front followed by cold" pattern observed [4]. - The early part of October experienced high temperatures, with some regions in southern China exceeding 38°C, while a significant drop in temperature occurred in the latter part of the month due to cold air masses [5]. La Niña Impact - The La Niña state is expected to result in a winter with average temperatures near or above normal and generally lower precipitation, particularly in southern regions [7]. - The risk of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events in southern China is considered low [7]. Precipitation Patterns - National average precipitation in October was 51.5 mm, which is 51.8% above the historical average, marking the third-highest for this period [8]. - The forecast indicates that certain regions, including northeastern and southwestern areas, will experience above-average precipitation, while others will see near-normal to below-normal levels [9]. Upcoming Weather Forecast - The next ten days are expected to see higher temperatures in most northern regions, with average temperatures 1-3°C above or close to normal levels [8]. - Rainfall is anticipated in various regions, with specific areas in the southwest and south experiencing significant precipitation events [9].

Core Viewpoint - The China Meteorological Administration predicts the development of a "La Niña" phenomenon starting in late autumn 2023, expected to last until early 2026, with a lower probability of significant impacts on climate conditions in China [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **La Niña Development** - The "La Niña" state is anticipated to begin in late autumn 2023 and continue until early 2026 [1] - The duration of this "La Niña" event is expected to be relatively short, leading to a lower probability of a significant "La Niña event" [1] - **Impact on Climate** - Under the "La Niña" conditions, the average national temperature during winter is expected to be close to or above the historical average [1] - Overall precipitation is predicted to be lower, with a distribution pattern showing more precipitation in the north and less in the south [1] - The risk of widespread low-temperature rain, snow, and ice in southern regions is considered low [1] - Significant temperature fluctuations are expected this winter, with notable differences in cold and warm periods [1] - Regions such as southeastern China, central eastern China, and southeastern southern China are forecasted to experience reduced precipitation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply faces significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans rebounded this week. Trump's negotiations with multiple countries are beneficial for US soybean sales, and the reluctance of US domestic spot holders to sell also provides support. Brazil's new - crop soybean planting is progressing normally, with an expected planting progress of about 30% this week. Brazil's premium quotes have been continuously decreasing, but the rebound of US soybeans is more significant, causing the domestic soybean arrival cost to rise slightly by 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and there is some room for Brazil's premium to decline. Since there is no significant downward trend in the global soybean supply, it is expected that the domestic soybean import cost will fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, Brazil's quotes will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first trade on the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to fall, and then, after the game between US soybeans and Brazil's premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the soybean meal market will then trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, the basis weakened, the futures market was strong, and the oil mills' futures crushing profit rebounded. The domestic soybean meal trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.95 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 days. As of October 22, institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases in August were 9.2 million tons, 8.64 million tons in September, 8.52 million tons in October, and 5.26 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic supply has significant real - world pressure, with soybean inventories at their highest level in history. In the short term, there is no breakthrough in importing US soybeans. As the soybean meal inventory - reduction season begins, it provides some support. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is mainly to sell on rebounds [9][10][11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, but does not provide specific analysis [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract, but does not provide specific analysis [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of multiple contracts such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, but does not provide specific analysis [23][24]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds, but does not provide specific analysis [26][29] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate, but does not provide specific analysis [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and its forecast, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America from July to September and its occurrence frequency, and the impact of La Nina on South American climate, but does not provide specific analysis [35][37][39]. - **US Soybean Processing and Price**: The report shows the historical trends of US soybean processing profit, Illinois Central No. 1 yellow soybean spot price, US soybean monthly processing volume, and NOPA soybean oil inventory, but does not provide specific analysis [47][50]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year, but does not provide specific analysis [51][52]. - **China's Oilseed Import**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports, but does not provide specific analysis [54][55]. - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: The report shows the historical trends of the soybean and rapeseed processing volumes of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [56][57]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [60][61]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends and forecasts of the soybean meal inventory of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills in China, but does not provide specific analysis [63][64]. - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the processing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast, but does not provide specific analysis [65][66]. 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the cumulative trading volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, but does not provide specific analysis [67][68]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit per feather of white - feather broilers, but does not provide specific analysis [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply and demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is progressing normally, and the estimated planting area is increasing. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market is under real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support. It is expected that the bean - meal market will fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. Brazil's new - season soybean planting is progressing normally, and institutional estimates suggest an increase in the planting area. Brazil's premium quotes fluctuated this week, and the soybean arrival cost remained stable. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and there is some room for the Brazilian premium to decline. Since there is no significant decline in the global soybean supply, the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is yet to be determined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotes will remain strong, providing some support for the bean - meal market. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the bean - meal market may first trade the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to decline. Then, after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the bean - meal market will trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic bean - meal spot market weakened, the basis increased, the futures market weakened, and the oil - mill's futures crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume rebounded to a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.93 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 days. As of October 14, institutional statistics showed that the purchased volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 5.33 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic bean - meal, the domestic bean - based basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is that the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The core driving logic is that the domestic supply is under real - time pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean - meal 01 contract and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract from February to October 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report displays the historical spread trends of the soybean - meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 11 - 1 spreads, and the soybean - meal 01 - rapeseed - meal 01 spread from 2021 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the historical net - long positions of the management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal from May 2020 to September 2025, along with the corresponding futures prices [25][26][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report presents the historical planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Niña occurring from October 2025 to January 2026. The report also shows the weighted precipitation and forecasts in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas until October 31, 2025, as well as the impact and frequency of La Niña on precipitation in North America from July to September and its climate impact on South America [34][35][36]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts signed by the US soybeans in the current market year to China, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [49][50]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report presents the historical monthly import volume and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [52][53]. - **China's Oil - Mill Crushing Situation**: The report shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [54][55]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report presents the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Protein - Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Protein - Meal Crushing Profit**: The report presents the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2021 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption and Transaction**: The report shows the historical cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [66]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report presents the historical per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the per - feather profit of white - feather broiler breeding from 2021 to 2025 [67][68].