Market Performance - On June 9, the four major A-share stock indices rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43% to 3399.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.65% to 10250.14 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.07% to 2061.29 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.6% to 997.61 points [2]. - Market turnover was 1.3127 trillion yuan, an increase of 135.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, medicine and biology (+2.3%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.72%), and textile and apparel (+1.61%) led the gains, while food and beverages (-0.43%), automobiles (+0.03%), and household appliances (+0.04%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4120/200/1092 respectively. Institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 5.7 billion, -5.9 billion, -7.3 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +13.3 billion, +5.9 billion, -8.6 billion, and -10.7 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Yield - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 142.36, 109.65, 53.05, and 40.83 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -19.08%, -15.74%, -11.38%, and -12.66% respectively, and three-year historical quantiles of 5%, 6%, 3%, and 6% respectively. The futures-spot price difference remained at a low level [3]. Trading Strategy - Recently, small-cap stock indices have had a deep discount, presumably due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short-term band strategy is recommended [3]. - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a bullish view on the economy. Buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips is recommended. For near-month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro-cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On June 9, most yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.344, up 0.53 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five-year bond was 1.472, up 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten-year bond was 1.617, up 2.45 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty-year bond was 1.95, down 1.63 bps [3]. Cash Bonds - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two-year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.093, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the five-year treasury bond futures is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.083, and an IRR of 1.81%; the CTD bond of the ten-year treasury bond futures is 220010.IB, with a yield change of -0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.094, and an IRR of 1.86%; the CTD bond of the thirty-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.162, and an IRR of 1.94% [4]. Trading Strategy - The cash bond market has recently shown a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. First, the maturity scale of government bonds in June has increased, and the net supply rhythm of government bonds may become more stable. Second, there is a possibility that the long-term liability cost of insurance companies will be lowered in July. Third, the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, and the allocation demand for the bond market may increase [5]. - For futures, the CTD bond price of the near-month contracts is low, and the recent IRR level is high, so short sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on the near-month contract prices and causing the far-month contracts to have a premium. The positions of T and TL have increased, while the positions of TF and TS have decreased, indicating strong long positions at the long end, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short-term long and long-term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [5]. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent import and export sentiment has rebounded [12].

Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2025.06.09-06.13 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约本周预计运行区间为2900至3050，建议关注2900一线的支 撑力度。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量218万吨，表观消费量229万吨，主要钢厂库存184万 吨，社会库存629万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中，但由于库存压力持续下降，因此 调整行情可能接近尾声。 2 建议观望等待调整阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 建议观望等待新一轮趋势明朗。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 建议观望等待调整阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For stock index futures, short - term band strategies are advisable due to deep discounts on small - cap stock indices. In the medium - to - long - term, it's recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. Near - month contracts of IC and IM should be treated with caution [3]. - For bond futures, it's suggested to take short - term long and long - term short positions. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips; medium - to - long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 6, A - share major indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04% to 3385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index fell 0.19%, 0.45%, and 0.48% respectively. Market trading volume was 1177.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 139.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Industries like non - ferrous metals, communication, and petroleum and petrochemical led the gains, while beauty care, textile and apparel, and food and beverage led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 2600, 210, and 2602 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 76, - 118, 12, and 182 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 114, - 77, +38, and +153 billion yuan [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 146.64, 107.08, 55.98, and 46.05 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 19.22%, - 14.99%, - 11.65%, and - 13.81% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 5%, 7%, 2%, and 4% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [3]. 2. Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 6, bond futures yields declined across the board. Among active contracts, the implied yields of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds decreased by 0.93bps, 1.56bps, 6.03bps, and 4.02bps respectively compared to the previous day [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures are provided. In the bond market, the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern may change in the future. The short - term strategy is to buy T and TL on dips, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows a recent rebound in import and export sentiment [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On June 5, A-share's four major stock indices rose across the board: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.1 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58% to 10203.5 points, ChiNext Index rose 1.17% to 2048.62 points, and STAR 50 Index rose 1.04% to 996.41 points. Market turnover was 1317 billion yuan, an increase of 139.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+2.62%), electronics (+2.31%), and computer (+2.12%) led the gains; beauty care (-3.07%), textile and apparel (-1.81%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.79%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2675/197/2540 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 38, - 41, - 26, and 30 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +14, - 15, +19, and - 18 billion yuan respectively [2]. - For Treasury bond futures on June 5, most yields declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.356, down 2.79bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.495, down 1.21bps; the ten - year bond was 1.658, down 0.08bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.012, up 2.99bps [3]. 2. Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 158.21, 118.37, 64.36, and 49.13 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 20.04%, - 16.03%, - 12.97%, and - 14.26% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Recently, small - cap stock indices have had a deep discount, presumably due to the expansion of neutral product scale this year. Since the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The current bond market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. In June, the maturity scale of government bonds increases, and the net supply rhythm may slow down. In July, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long - term liability cost of insurance. The domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. For futures, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and the recent IRR level is high, so short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on near - month contract prices and causing far - month contracts to have a premium. T and TL positions are increasing, while TF and TS positions are decreasing, indicating strong long - term bullish power, betting on a further decline in policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. 4. Specific Market Data - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets**: Detailed data on the performance of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2506 - IC2512, IF2506 - IF2512, IH2506 - IH2512, IM2506 - IM2512) and their corresponding spot indices (such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.) are provided, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and basis annualized yield [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets**: Data on the performance of various Treasury bond futures contracts (such as TS2506 - TS2512, TF2506 - TF2512, T2506 - T2512, TL2506 - TL2512) and their corresponding spot bonds (such as 250006, 250003, etc.) are presented, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Short - term Funding Rates**: The current, previous, one - week - ago, and one - month - ago prices of SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 are shown, indicating relatively stable short - term funding rates [11]. 5. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the prosperity of the real estate market increased [11].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a significant decline, with iron ore futures showing a downward trend and a current price fluctuation between 695.0 and 708.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of approximately 0.50% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the basic supply and demand dynamics indicate a continued weakening in iron ore demand, with a decrease in iron water production and an increase in domestic iron ore output expected in June, leading to a bearish price outlook [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while iron water production is declining, steel mills' profits are still supporting high iron ore demand, but the overall supply-demand structure is neutral to weak, indicating potential pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights that despite a decline in iron water production, the speed and extent of this decline are limited due to reasonable profit margins for steel mills, suggesting continued support for iron ore demand [2] - The global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand in the medium term [2] - The outlook for iron ore shipments in the second half of the year is expected to increase significantly, with a focus on monitoring the production progress of steel mills and the ongoing situation regarding steel billet exports [2]

招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 4 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.42%，报收 3376.2 点；深成指 上涨 0.87%，报收 10144.58 点；创业板指上涨 1.11%，报收 2024.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.45%， 报收 986.11 点。市场成交 11,774 亿元，较前日增加 136 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.63%)， 综合(+2.53%)，纺织服饰(+2.41%)涨幅居前；交通运输(-0.58%)，国防军工(-0.24%)，公用事业 (-0.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,964/211/1,237。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 23、-26、-45、48 亿元，分别变动+49、+40、-27、 -62 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.37、120.01、65.54 与 47.42 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-19.84%、-15.84%、-12.83%与-13.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 期- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean/M粕类**: International soybeans are in a high - yield pattern, with high production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, the pressure of soybean arrival is increasing, and although the demand is good, there is an obvious pressure of bean粕 inventory accumulation [2][3][5]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is dragged down by the expected high yield in Brazil and its trend is weak. In China, due to the lag in summer stocking demand and the short - term weak trend of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [7][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rumor of India's tax reduction was refuted, and the Malaysian palm oil market declined. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean oil may slow down, and the supply of rapeseed oil exceeds demand, but the decline space is limited [15][18]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The sowing of US corn is accelerating, and the external corn price is falling. In China, the supply of corn is relatively low, and the spot price is stable. The futures price has strong support [23][26]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak [30]. - **Peanuts**: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still low, and the price of new - season peanuts in Henan is rising. The import volume has decreased significantly. The downstream consumption is still weak, and the price of peanut粕 is stable. The price of peanut oil is strong, but the market for oil - using peanuts is weak. The price of 10 - contract peanuts is expected to have limited rebound space [32][34]. - **Eggs**: The overall supply of eggs is sufficient, and the egg price has stabilized recently. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [41][45]. - **Apples**: Currently in the weather - trading peak, the recent rainfall in Shaanxi has alleviated the drought. In the consumption off - season, the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory supports the price. The 2510 contract is expected to have limited downward space [49][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The market is mainly dominated by macro factors. The uncertainty has increased, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [54][58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.58% to 1045.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT bean粕 index rose 0.53% to 301.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: Forecasts for USDA export sales, EU rapeseed production increase, potential slowdown in Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic oil - mill data on soybean and bean粕 inventory [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - M11 - 1 positive spread, MRM09 spread widening; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [6]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.14 (0.83%) to 17.04 cents per pound [7]. - **Important Information**: Data on Brazilian port sugar waiting for shipment, India's sugar domestic sales quota, Yunnan's sugar production and sales, and the decline in average yield and sugar - output per ton of sugarcane in Brazil's 2025/26 season [8][9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - virtual - value ratio spread options [11][12][13]. Oils and Fats - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by 0.96% to 48.39 cents per pound; BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.76% to 3903 ringgit per ton [15]. - **Related Information**: Malaysia's plan to increase biodiesel blending ratio, USDA export sales forecasts for US soybeans, bean粕, and soybean oil, and Canada's rapeseed export and inventory data [16][17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper edge of the range; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [19][20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the main contract down 0.3% to 447.5 cents per bushel [23]. - **Important Information**: CBOT soft red winter wheat price increase, feed enterprise inventory data, corn processing enterprise inventory data, and corn price stability in North ports and North China [25]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - the 07 - contract corn has support around 440 cents per bushel, close out long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - conduct oscillatory operations on corn - starch spread, go long on 09 - contract starch and short 09 - contract corn when the price is low; Options - those with spot can consider the strategy of selling put options when the price is high [27][28]. Pigs - **Related Information**: Pig price stability in different regions, changes in piglet and sow prices, and changes in the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and pork wholesale price [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - the price is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - LH79 reverse spread; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions, arrival and transaction prices at oil mills, peanut oil and peanut粕 prices, and inventory data of peanut and peanut oil [32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - short the 10 - contract peanuts when the price is high; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - sell pk510 - C - 8600 options [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg price changes in main production and sales areas, data on the number of laying hens in production, egg - chick hatching volume, egg - chicken culling volume, egg sales volume, inventory, and profit [41][42][43]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - close out short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - go long on 08 - contract and short 09 - contract; Options - wait and see [45][46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, market conditions, prices, and storage - merchant profits [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - buy the 10 - contract apples at low prices; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [57][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.30 (0.46%) to 65.03 cents per pound [54]. - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volume, US cotton planting rate, and the news about US tariff administrative orders [55][58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral - US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [59][60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, with high yields in Brazil and Argentina, and smooth progress in the new - crop planting of US soybeans. The domestic soybean market also faces inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, it is expected to show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, and the corn market is expected to be stable in the short - term with strong support for futures. The pig market has short - term supply pressure, and the peanut market has limited rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market may be slightly weak in the short - term. The cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][5][10][19][28][33][37][48][52][58] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.45% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.33% to $302.2 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Brazil's soybean production reached 169 million tons this year. The global rapeseed production may be about 800,000 - 900,000 tons less. Brazil launched a 28 - day avian influenza observation period. As of the week of May 23, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2093 million tons, the开机率 was 62.1%, the soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week [2] - **逻辑分析**: The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, and the domestic oil mills face inventory accumulation pressure [3][5] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, slightly allocate long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage and expand the MRM spread; for options, adopt the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar fell 0.32 (1.81%) to 17.38 cents per pound [7] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose slightly, and the quotes of sugar - making groups in various regions decreased. The inventory in Guangxi's third - party warehouses increased year - on - year, and the destocking speed was the lowest in the same period of the past five years. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and there was import profit [8] - **逻辑分析**: Brazil is about to enter the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [10] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, view it as weak and volatile; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.44% to 49.22 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.16% to 3827 ringgit per ton [15] - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.51%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 11.6% compared with the same period last month. Argentina's soybean planting area and output increased, and the soybean harvest rate was 77%. Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory was 966,700 tons [16][17][18] - **逻辑分析**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The soybean oil inventory accumulation speed may slow down, and the rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, but the decline space may be limited [19] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper limit of the range; for arbitrage, consider expanding the YP 09 spread at low levels and going long on OI 91 at low levels; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.3% to 459.5 cents per bushel [24] - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose last week due to slow spring sowing and good export sales. The temperature in the US corn - producing states is expected to be higher than normal, and the precipitation is expected to be lower than normal. The corn inventory of major processing enterprises increased slightly. The purchase price in the northern port and the price in the North China production area were stable [25][27] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn report is stable, and the sowing speed is accelerating. The domestic corn supply is relatively small, and the spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract is in a low - level shock, and the basis difference is narrowing [28] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the 07 corn contract has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and long positions can be tried; for arbitrage, conduct shock operations on the corn and starch arbitrage and expand the spread at low levels; for options, those with spot can consider the strategy of accumulating put options at high prices [29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price showed a weak trend, and the prices of piglets and sows decreased slightly. The wholesale price of pork increased [32][33] - **逻辑分析**: The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is still relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure still exists [33] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the market is mainly in a shock operation; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell wide - straddle options [34] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The quotes of peanuts in various regions are relatively stable, and the arrivals and transaction prices of peanut oil mills vary. The price of peanut oil is relatively strong, and the sales of peanut meal are average. The peanut inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the peanut oil inventory decreased slightly [35][36] - **逻辑分析**: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still small, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is still weak, but the large - scale oil mills' purchases have boosted the market. The 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong, but the rebound space is limited [37] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for the 10 - contract peanut; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [38][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and the price in the main sales areas also decreased. The inventory of laying hens increased, the egg - chick hatching volume increased, the slaughter volume of laying hens increased, the egg sales volume increased, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased, and the egg - raising profit increased [43][44][45] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to close the previous short positions and wait and see [48] - **交易策略**: No specific strategies provided in the text Apple - **重要资讯**: The apple inventory in cold storage decreased, the export volume increased, the import volume increased significantly, the market destocking speed slowed down, the terminal demand decreased slightly, the new - season apple is entering the bagging stage, and the precipitation in the western region has alleviated the drought to some extent. The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the storage profit has increased [49][50][51] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market is in the peak of weather - related trading. The market may revise the previous pessimistic expectations, and the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory has a certain supporting effect on the price [52] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short positions can consider closing the positions and waiting and seeing, and then build long positions at low levels for the AP10 contract; for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short the 09 contract; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [50][53] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose 0.39 (0.59%) to 66.06 cents per pound [54] - **重要资讯**: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought in the US main production areas has been alleviated. The weekly signing volume of US upland cotton increased, and the weekly shipping volume decreased. The number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton decreased [55][56][57] - **交易逻辑**: The market fundamentals change little, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the influence of the macro - level [58] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger in a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59][60]

2025.05.26-05.30 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析，螺纹钢期货主力合 约本周预计运行区间为3100至2950，建议关注3100一线的压力位 置。中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量231万吨，表观消费量247万吨，主要钢厂库存187万 吨，社会库存629万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于横盘阶段，资金方面则空方阵营略占优势。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 3100至2950，可留意3100一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源 ...

2025.05.19-05.23 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为3130至2980，建议关注3130一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量226万吨，表观消费量260万吨，主要钢厂库存185万 吨，社会库存650万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 目录 中线行情分析 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 3130至2980，可留意3130一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 品种交易策略 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...