Report Information - Report Title: PTA Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jin, Feng Zeren [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On July 7, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2509 was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton or 0.59%. With international crude oil fluctuating narrowly and PTA's fundamentals lacking major new news, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2509 on July 7 was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863,534 lots and a decrease of 2,777 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,640 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 169,785 lots and an increase of 11,751 lots. Due to the narrow - range fluctuation of international crude oil and the lack of major new news in PTA fundamentals, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5] 3.2 Industry News - The strong US job market supports the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors await clarification of President Trump's tariff plans. OPEC and its allies are expected to further increase crude oil production in August, leading to a cautious decline in international oil prices. On July 4, the electronic trading price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 was $66.50 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.75%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 was $68.30 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73%. The Asian xylene market continued to decline, with FOB South Korea closing at $715/ton and CFR China at $735/ton. The PTA price in the East China market was 4,802 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton, and the daily average negotiation basis was at a premium of 98 yuan/ton over futures 2509, remaining stable [6] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, processing margins, spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][12][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term due to large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season, despite factors like the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, a rebound in crude oil prices, a significant decline in bottle chip production this week, strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season with rising temperatures, high export volume in May, and expected increases in the开工 rate of downstream industries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract PR2509 of bottle chips dropped by 8 yuan to 5908 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 42,300 lots, a decrease of 618 lots. In the spot market, the price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market fell by 5 yuan to 6000 yuan/ton, and in the South China market, it dropped by 10 yuan to 6050 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 354,200 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 77.5%, a decrease of 2.4% from last week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5725 yuan, a decrease of 3.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 70.9 yuan/ton [1] - Demand: In May 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 619,000 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.6955 million tons [1] - OPEC decision: Eight OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting from June this year [1] - Oil price: Uncertainty in US tariff policies and the likelihood of OPEC+ continuing to increase production in August led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract was at 67.00, down 0.45 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 09 contract was at 68.80, down 0.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The main contract 2508 of China's INE crude oil futures rose 5.2 to 503.7 yuan/barrel and 3.3 to 507 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Geopolitical factors led to a rebound in crude oil prices. This week, bottle chip production decreased significantly. With rising temperatures, there are strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season, and the downstream industries'开工 rate is expected to increase. However, large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season lead to a short - term weakly oscillating price of bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 品 研 究 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 843.5 | 29 | 3.56% | | | | J2509 | 1442 | 53.5 | 3. 85% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1189983 | 529227 | -35195 | | | | J2509 | 30166 | 49728 | 162 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 涨跌(元/吨) 10 | | | 焦煤 | 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 吕梁低硫主焦 | 934 1128 | 934 1113 | 0 15 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market for PX is supported in the short - term due to geopolitical factors and supply - demand tightness, but may be dragged down by downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are expected to be affected by similar factors, and their prices will fluctuate with the cost side. For polyolefins, PP is expected to be under pressure while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals. PVC and caustic soda have their own supply - demand contradictions, and the current market trends are complex. Urea's market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. Methanol's supply and demand situation is complex with uncertainties in overseas supply and weak domestic demand. Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases and demand decreases [2][25][34][39][43][46][53]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On June 23, most polyester product prices showed minor changes. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 0.7%, and its cash - flow decreased by 59.7%. PX - related prices also had fluctuations, with CFR China PX down by 0.1%. The prices of upstream products like Brent crude oil (August) decreased by 8.39% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and polyester comprehensive开工率 decreased, while MEG comprehensive开工率 increased. For example, PTA开工率 decreased from 82.6% to 79.1%, and MEG comprehensive开工率 increased from 66.3% to 70.3% [2]. - **Market Outlook**: PX is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09, observing the PX9 - 1 spread, and reducing positions in the PX - SC spread narrowing strategy at low levels [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, L2601 and PP2601 closing prices increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 increasing by 10.29% [25]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PP装置开工率 increased, while PE装置开工率 decreased slightly. PP inventory increased, and PE inventory decreased. For example, PP企业 inventory increased by 4.52%, and PE企业 inventory decreased by 1.83% [25]. - **Market Outlook**: PP is expected to be bearish in the short - term due to high production and poor marginal profits, while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals but is still affected by the off - season [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, the prices of PVC and caustic soda products mostly decreased. For example, the price of华东电石法PVC decreased by 0.6%, and the price of山东32%液碱折百价 decreased by 3.7% [30]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed slightly. The inventory of caustic soda in some areas decreased, but the inventory of downstream alumina plants increased [32][34]. - **Market Outlook**: The current price of caustic soda is still searching for a bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. PVC may have short - term price increases but is limited by long - term supply - demand contradictions, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, most urea futures prices decreased. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.35%. Spot prices in different regions also showed declines, such as the price of Shandong (small - particle) urea decreasing by 3.85% [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the开工 rate of production enterprises decreased. The inventory in factories decreased, while the inventory in ports increased. Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export volume has decreased significantly [39]. - **Market Outlook**: The urea market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. It is not recommended to go long at low levels prematurely, but opportunities in the option side with narrowing volatility can be grasped [39]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, crude oil prices decreased significantly. Brent decreased by 8.39%, and WTI decreased by 7.22%. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreasing by 50.34% [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. In the short - term, the market volatility may decrease, but geopolitical risks still exist. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clearer [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 23, methanol futures prices decreased. MA2601 decreased by 0.76%, and MA2509 decreased by 0.99%. The inventory of methanol decreased, and the开工 rate of some downstream industries also decreased [46]. - **Market Outlook**: The overseas supply of methanol is uncertain, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the development of the Iranian situation and the actual parking rhythm of MTO [46]. Benzene - Ethylene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On June 23, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil (August) decreased. The prices of pure benzene and ethylene - related products also had minor changes, with pure benzene - stone naphtha increasing by 0.7% [50]. - **Benzene - Ethylene Prices and Inventory**: The price of benzene - ethylene decreased slightly, and its inventory decreased. The profit of benzene - ethylene integration decreased significantly by 76.8% [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases from upstream device resumptions and profit - driven production increases, and demand decreases from weak downstream profits and uncertain terminal demand [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the current winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery. Recently, the futures market has mainly traded based on the delivery cost logic. With the support of delivery costs, the valuation of the 07 contract still has room for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short sell far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Contracts**: On June 19, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2507 contract closed at 798 yuan/m³, up 2.5 yuan/m³ (0.31%) from the previous day; the log 2509 contract was at 794 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan/m³ (- 0.13%); the log 2511 contract was at 791.5 yuan/m³, down 5 yuan/m³ (- 0.63%) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The 7 - 9 spread was 4 yuan/m³, up 3.5 yuan/m³; the 9 - 11 spread was 2.5 yuan/m³, up 4 yuan/m³; the 7 - 11 spread was 6.5 yuan/m³, up 7.5 yuan/m³. The 07 contract basis was - 48 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan/m³; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/m³, up 1 yuan/m³; the 11 contract basis was - 41.5 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan/m³ [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 19 compared with the previous day, with a 0% change. The ex - factory prices of imported logs in the international market also remained stable [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.193 yuan on June 19, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 778.59 yuan, up 0.56 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port freight volume was 195.5 million m³, up 22.8 million m³ (13.20%) from April. The number of departing ships was 58, down 5 (- 7.94%) from the previous month [2]. - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million m³, up 6 million m³ (1.77%) from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 201 million m³, up 9.5 million m³ (4.96%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 113.31 million m³, up 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of June 13, the average daily log出库 volume in China was 5.98 million m³, down 0.33 million m³ (- 5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.3 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (- 2%), and in Jiangsu, it was 1.9 million m³, down 0.38 million m³ (- 17%) [3].

白糖日报 软商品日报 2025/06/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both coke and coking coal will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. Coking coal will face stricter safety inspections [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1417228 lots and an open interest of 567843 lots, an increase of 10312 lots. The closing price of J2509 was 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.75%, with a trading volume of 31312 lots and an open interest of 54018 lots, an increase of 255 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Various spot prices of coking coal and coke remained mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few varieties. For example, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Peak Downs coal converted to RMB decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 decreased, while the spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 increased [2]. Price and Position Information - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: On June 10, 2025, the ex - warehouse prices of coking coal at northern ports were as follows: 1290 yuan/ton for Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port, 1205 yuan/ton for Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, 1205 yuan/ton at Lianyungang Port, 1110 yuan/ton at Rizhao Port, and 1195 yuan/ton at Tianjin Port [2]. - **Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index on June 10**: S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 970 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 838 yuan; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 849 yuan [3][4]. - **Position Information**: On June 10, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 19885 lots and short positions decreased by 3681 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 693 lots and short positions increased by 351 lots [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1 [5].