Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, and domestic downstream demand generally stable and positive but with mixed sector performances. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and the supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year, with potential recovery in smelting supply. Similar to copper, it's necessary to monitor US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price and Market Analysis - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. The price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year, concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Metal Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,540 | 115 | 9,725 | - 81.01 | 156,350 | 1,200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | 30 | 2,593 | - 0.47 | 479,525 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,260 | - 65 | 2,767 | - 7.54 | 71,250 | - 950 | | Nickel | 119,700 | - 1,380 | 14,929 | - 186.96 | 209,346 | 18 | | Lead | 16,745 | - 155 | 1,970 | - 38.38 | 281,100 | - 1,850 | | Tin | 266,480 | 2,100 | 33,475 | - 2.00 | 1,715 | 85 | [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed weak fluctuations. Pro farmer field surveys indicated good growth of US soybeans, strengthening expectations of high yields for the new season. However, due to the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report, there is strong support at the bottom. Dalian meal will mainly fluctuate in a short - term range, and its price is expected to remain firm under the support of import costs [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils closed up. High - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports in August. The sharp increase in August exports boosted palm oil prices. Concerns about Indonesia's inability to meet production recovery expectations and the strict implementation of Indonesia's DMO policy also provided support. But there is a risk of a short - term decline due to US biodiesel news and profit - taking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8394 for soybean oil, 9500 for palm oil, 9791 for rapeseed oil, 3113 for soybean meal, 2610 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were - 20, - 54, - 37, - 47, - 57, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24%, - 0.57%, - 3.15%, - 1.49%, - 2.14%, and 0.29% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., showed different values compared to the previous values [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4423 for BMD palm oil, 1036 for CBOT soybeans, 51 for CBOT US soybean oil, and 297 for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were - 25, 20, 2, and - 3 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.56%, 1.88%, 4.59%, and - 1.08% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8570 and 8690 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.12% and 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products, such as the basis of various oils and meals and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, showed different values compared to the previous values [1] Import and Profit - Import profits of different sources of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 283, compared to - 242 previously [1] Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipt of soybean oil was 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 22 日 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20590 | રેર | -125 | 160 | 1125 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20720 | ー | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2593 | 16 | -31 | 10 | 213 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 124523 | -3645 | 26534 | 20928 | -142219 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 6、预期：本周乙二醇到货量下降至低位，叠加近期聚酯工厂参与点价积极，后续港口出货将呈现好转，预计8-9月内港口库存维持 低位运行。另外需求环节逐步恢复，聚酯及终端负荷均有所回升，需求支撑逐步走强。预计短期乙二醇市场震荡偏强为主，下方支 撑较为明显，关注聚酯负荷回升速度以及商品走势。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货盘面受华南500万吨PTA装置计划外先后停产消息影响，PTA价格大幅上行，带动聚酯链期货盘面全线大 涨，下游聚酯产销也略有提振，上午现货基差快速上行，不过下午市场情绪溢价回吐，基差有所松动。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 当分析师遇到胡辣汤 宝城期货 陈栋 郑商所周边，高楼大厦与街边小吃并存，金融精英与美食爱好者共享同一片天空。 这里的美食，就像是期货市场上的各种商品，丰富多彩，等待着每一位食客去探索、品味。 清晨的阳光洒在交易所的大楼上，金光闪闪，预示着新的一天充满希望。不远处的街道上，一家老字 号的胡辣汤店已热闹非凡。我曾多次参加郑商所甲醇高级分析师评选，当时，早餐必去喝胡辣汤。店内， 食客手捧热气腾腾的胡辣汤，搭配金黄酥脆的油饼，一口下去，辣味与香味在口中交织，唤醒了沉睡的味 午后的交易所，忙碌而有序。周边的小吃街也逐渐热闹起来。一家名为"烩面世家"的小店，以其独 特的羊肉烩面吸引了众多食客。店内，宽面条在高汤中翻滚，羊肉的鲜香与面的筋道完美结合，再撒上一 把葱花，色香味俱全。这碗烩面，就像是期货市场上的午盘，稳健而有力，让人回味无穷。 傍晚时分，交易所周边的夜市热闹起来，各类小吃琳琅满目。喷香的烤串、酥脆的炸鸡、爽滑的凉皮…… 这些小吃，就像是期货市场上的夜盘，充满着变数与惊喜，让人欲罢不能。 在交易所周边，还隐藏着许多小而美的店。一家甜品店以手工 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a slight downward oscillation with a slight increase in open interest. Recently, copper prices have been weak, but the amplitude has been narrowing, and open interest has stabilized. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled, and overseas risk appetite has declined. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper began to decline on Thursday. As the peak season approaches, industrial support may continue to strengthen. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. As the peak season approaches, industrial support for aluminum prices has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel increased in position and declined, with the main contract price breaking through the 120,000 - yuan mark. At the macro - level, the bullish atmosphere in the domestic market has cooled. At the industrial level, high domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories keep the nickel fundamentals weak. In the short term, with the cooling of the macro - atmosphere and weak fundamentals, the nickel price has broken through the 120,000 - yuan mark, and the futures price is expected to continue its decline [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 21, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 129,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the 14th and 14,500 tons compared to the 18th. The procurement and sales sentiment in the Shanghai area has improved. Looking ahead to tomorrow, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and under the drag of low - priced imported goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, as it is Friday tomorrow, the downstream procurement sentiment is expected to be strong, so the decline of the spot premium of Shanghai copper is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the 14th and a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the 18th. In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,700 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides various charts for copper, aluminum, and nickel, including base differentials, inventory changes, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper base differentials, domestic and overseas inventory changes, and LME copper cancellation warrant ratios; for aluminum, there are charts of aluminum base differentials, social inventory changes, and alumina inventory changes; for nickel, there are charts of nickel base differentials, inventory changes, and LME nickel trends [12][25][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures price will fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the USDA weekly export sales report [2] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price and basis are firm [2] - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, mainland spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises mainly purchase raw materials as needed, hoping that the "Golden September and Silver October" will bring an opportunity for demand improvement [2] - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2] - Currently, the domestic old - crop supply is tight, which supports the cotton price fluctuations, but the weak downstream demand limits the upside space. The price will maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. If the future demand improves marginally, the price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 48,506 lots, down 639 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton: 481,950 lots, up 3,484 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,335 lots, down 120 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 363 lots, down 97 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton yarn: 22,074 lots, down 75 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 69 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,541 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax): 14,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,035 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,912 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton: 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn: 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit: 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 151,617.59 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 116,040.09 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.09%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.07%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.78%, an increase of 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.65%, a decrease of 0.04% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On August 21, the spinning profit was - 1,354.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The raw material cotton price decreased, and the spinning mills' spot - on - hand profit increased slightly [2] - On Wednesday, the ICE cotton December contract closed flat. On Thursday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.05% [2]

机构观点 东吴期货：PX环节福海创等检修延续，短期供应增量有限，PXN价差预计维持相对高位，为PTA提供 一定成本支撑，但难以完全抵消原油下行压力。海伦新产能稳定运行，台化、威联、嘉兴重启，PTA整 体供应预计维持增长态势。聚酯产品价格上涨仍显乏力，刚需支撑存在，投机性需求受制于对原料走势 的谨慎预期。终端织造开机率持续回升，秋冬订单打样启动及长丝库存下降是积极信号，显示弱复苏仍 在延续。然而，坯布库存绝对值仍处高位，终端订单的实质性、持续性改善仍有待观察。预计PTA市场 延续震荡偏弱格局。策略上，短期以逢高谨慎偏空思路为主，密切关注原油动向、PTA大装置实际检修 执行情况以及聚酯产销与库存的持续性变化。 华联期货：供应端上周产量略有增加。需求端聚酯开工率维持稳定，产量同期高位，终端织造开工率小 幅回升，订单表现不温不火。库存端行业库存延续去化，成品方面长丝、短纤小幅去库，瓶片库存维 持。成本方面原油弱势关注区间下沿支撑情况，TA加工费小幅反弹，下游产品利润弱稳。总体看短线 供需尚可，但外围市场普遍偏弱，估值驱动偏弱，技术面区间震荡。操作方面区间交易，2601合约参考 4650-4850。 截止2025年8月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by factors such as global supply - demand adjustments, domestic supply expectations, and downstream demand. The sugar market is influenced by Brazilian production estimates and domestic supply pressure. The pulp market faces supply and demand challenges with high inventory and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton (- 0.32%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 649,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% and a month - on - month increase of 3.33% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks made the supply - demand pattern shift from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. Domestically, the supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton production is expected to increase [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but policy regulation may limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton (+ 0.26%) from the previous day. In July, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production data shows a decline in some aspects but a high sugar - making ratio. Domestic sugar sales have slowed, and imported sugar pressure is increasing [5][6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short - term, sugar prices will likely oscillate due to supply pressure, but a potential tail - end rise may occur in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, a change of - 42 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure exists in the second half of the year with high port inventories. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, and the improvement of terminal demand is expected to be limited [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9]