现货端,随着焦企启动补库,叠加部分中间环节入场买货,焦煤整体成交氛围改善,线上竞拍几乎全线上涨。港口贸易准 () 湿熄焦1490(-10),准一于熄焦1680(-20),炼焦煤价格指数1258.6(+8.5);蒙煤方面,口岸通关维持高位,口岸 易企业报价暂稳,市场成交明显放量,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤1068(-1),蒙5精煤1197(-3),河北唐山:蒙5精像 1305(-)。期货端:资本市场情绪共振,多有反复,波动较大,不过整体依然是以做多为主,媒焦有所回调,不过现货表 现依然较好。基本面来看,市场进入淡季,产业数据表现较弱,本周钢材表需出现超季节性转弱(可能和节假有关),而钥 材产量增加,导致钢材库存转增,煤矿供给也随着新的一年增加,不过产量对比往年依然偏低。接下来关注下游补库是否 逐渐开启。具体到行情上,随着01交割博弈结束,黑色进入淡季讲"预期"的阶段。板块后续主要看能不能找到足够的" 预期"利好,吸引资金拉涨盘面,让期现入场把现货锁住,形成期现联动上涨。参照过往经验,这种行情在旺季前一 直接下跌,项多涨不动陷入震荡,因此偏向于逢低做多,短期内盘面大幅上涨后需要消化情绪,波动加剧, 外要注意天气回暖 ...

现货升水格局延续 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 期货行情： 2026-01-13，沪铜主力合约开于 104600元/吨，收于 102290元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 103,780元/吨，收于 103,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为贴水30元至升水150元/吨，均价为升水60元/吨，与昨 日持平。电解铜现货价格区间在101920-103100元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约呈现"V型"走势，开盘自102860元/吨下行 至102100元附近后反弹，盘中触及103700元高点，最终收于103160元/吨。隔月Contango价差在430-200元/吨之间， 当月进口亏损约1680-1930元/吨。市场方面，早间平水铜报价贴水50元至平水，好铜金川大板因货源紧张报升水150 元。金冠、中金等品牌成交于贴水50元至平水，湿法铜贴水50元成交，随后豫光报价上调至贴水20元，祥光、鲁 方以升水50-80元成交。午后价格小幅上行，中条山、豫光等按 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak trading, with steel prices remaining volatile. The iron ore market is mainly under observation, and iron ore prices are fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose supply and demand, and prices are also fluctuating. The thermal coal market shows rising prices at the pithead, while downstream trading remains in a stalemate [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,303 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with prices basically stable and small fluctuations in the market. Purchases were mainly for low-cost essential needs, with few speculative and spot-futures transactions [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For building materials, the fundamentals have slightly weakened. Steel mills are resuming production quickly, while downstream winter storage replenishment is delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. However, as it is the consumption off-season for steel, the market has a relatively high tolerance for inventory. For plates, the fundamental contradictions are limited, but high inventory always suppresses price elasticity. In the short term, prices depend on cost changes [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter-period, inter-variety, spot-futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices fluctuated slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports also fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for essential needs. The total iron ore sales at major national ports reached 841,000 tons, a 11.78% increase from the previous day. The cumulative sales of forward spot iron ore were 1.515 million tons (11 transactions), a 156.78% increase from the previous day, with 1.165 million tons sold by mines [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Currently, with high iron ore valuations, global shipments remain at a high level, and the total inventory has been rising continuously. The liquidity of some port supplies has been locked up, and the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply. If the negotiations are finalized later, port supplies may cause a supply shock, and there is great uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, with steel mills resuming production and winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. Future attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations and steel mills' replenishment [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. The price of coking coal for furnace use increased, and coking profits were somewhat restored. The supply in the production areas has been steadily increasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal around 1,060 - 1,080 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of the coke market is currently relatively balanced, and coke prices are temporarily stable. On the raw material side, coking coal prices have recently increased, and the market has high purchasing enthusiasm with large order volumes. Coking plants' production enthusiasm is average, as is the downstream purchasing enthusiasm. For raw materials, downstream buyers mostly purchase as needed, and coal mines' production enthusiasm is at a normal level. In the short term, the coke market will mainly remain stable, and prices may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to steel mills' production resumption and replenishment. For coking coal, supply and demand are loose, imports have increased, domestic high - quality production capacity has been released, and the inventory at ports and factories is at a high level, with great pressure to reduce inventory. In the short term, it will also mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and downstream replenishment progress [6] - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect fluctuations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the overall situation is still strong, with good non - power and other terminal demand, and normal downstream replenishment. Most coal mines have good sales, with many coal - hauling trucks, and prices continue to rise. However, some coal mines have poor sales, and prices have been slightly reduced. Currently, coal mines say that transactions are mainly through long - term agreements, and there are few market coal transactions. Later, coal prices may stabilize. At ports, trading remains sluggish. Affected by the inverted upstream shipping prices, port quotes are relatively high, but most downstream buyers are observing, with only sporadic inquiries. There are serious differences in the market. Some believe that there is an expectation of Spring Festival replenishment, and with continuous upstream price increases, the willingness to hold prices is strong under cost support. Some market participants believe that current downstream consumption is lower than expected and that the price increase at the pithead is not sustainable, so they have a strong willingness to sell [7] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to rise slightly, but downstream demand has not met expectations, and the temperature is relatively high in the coming week, so there are still differences in views. However, the supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side still has a boost, and attention should be paid to the implementation process of maintenance. The market sentiment has improved, driving the prices of PE and PP to continue to rebound, but the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of both is limited. The short - term rebound sustainability of PP depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the rebound drive of PE may weaken after the sentiment fades [1][3][4] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6,766 yuan/ton (+29), and that of the PP main contract was 6,545 yuan/ton (-15). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,670 yuan/ton (+90) and 6,750 yuan/ton (+100) respectively, while PP spot price in East China was 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -96 yuan/ton (+61), in East China was -16 yuan/ton (+71), and PP basis in East China was -295 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate was 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 104.8 yuan/ton (+17.2), PP oil - based production profit was -535.2 yuan/ton (+17.2), and PDH - based PP production profit was -722.0 yuan/ton (+53.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 160.2 yuan/ton (+58.7), PP import profit was -365.7 yuan/ton (-33.2), and PP export profit was -36.5 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film operating rate was 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The bottom - rebound of oil prices has strengthened cost support. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, it is not a substantial reversal. The supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in low - cost imported goods and the return of some devices to produce standard products. The demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure exists under high supply [3] - **PP**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and the supply - side reduction expectation and cost support have boosted prices. The supply pressure has been relieved in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the short - term rebound sustainability depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. Pay attention to the upstream maintenance dynamics [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 14 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：继续探底 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 24375 | -275 | 40 | 2435 | 3590 | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 24780 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 3196 | 5 | ୧3 | 299 | 491 | | | | | | | | 沪铝 ...

锌价估值持续偏低 重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-40.90美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化190元/吨至24330元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日200元/吨至24290元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水30元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日190元/吨至24260元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水0元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-13沪锌主力合约开于24215元/吨，收于24235元/吨，较前一交易日205元/吨，全天交易日成交 152709手，全天交易日持仓68022手，日内价格最高点达到24735元/吨，最低点达到24035元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-13，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.83万吨，较上期变化-0.02万吨。截止2026-01-13，LME 锌库存为106900吨，较上一交易日变化100吨。 市场分析 冶炼厂原料库存略有增加，对国产矿采购积极性下滑，国产矿TC保持平稳，进口矿TC持续回落，Antamina最新报 价0-10美元/吨。冶炼厂原料可用天数并不高，短期TC难上涨。冶炼综合利 ...

2026年01月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯计划减产，关注兑现力度 | 2 | | MEG：估值下方空间有限 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260114 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位震荡 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产偏低维持，现货挺涨基差转正 | 8 | | PP：下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260114 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强 | 21 | | 丙烯：现货供需收紧，趋势偏强 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：地缘推涨，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨为主，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：弱势运行 | 26 | | 短纤： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose and then fell. London gold exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver exceeded $89 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the US core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, while some inventories changed [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Gold prices are rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. Silver has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.81% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24,375 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Although the terminal consumption of the electrolytic aluminum market is under pressure, the expectation of loose macro - policies and geopolitical risks provide strong support for aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 3.00% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,780 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Alumina supply is gradually recovering, inventory is accumulating, and the price of bauxite is falling. The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 13, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,235 yuan per ton and 17,310 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The lead market shows weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [2][3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see. For lead, it can be traded within a range or treated with a short - bias [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract closed at 8,635 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: The fundamental support is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 166,980 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply increased in December but is expected to decrease in January. Demand for some battery materials is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Due to inflation concerns on the supply side and battery export expectations on the demand side, prices are expected to be supported, and it is easy for prices to rise and difficult to fall [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 49,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 990 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Market regulatory authorities interviewed photovoltaic associations and enterprises, causing market pessimism. Supply decreased slightly, and demand for some downstream products declined [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: There are still rumors of joint production cuts on the supply side, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,169 yuan per ton, a rise of 14 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and steel mills are in a state of continuous loss [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,140 - 3,190 yuan per ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 824 yuan per ton, a rise of 8 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. Steel mill profits are poor, and port inventory has a certain structural shortage. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 810 - 840 yuan per ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan per ton, a fall of 11.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and coking coal supply - demand is weak. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,180 - 1,220 yuan per ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell, continuing to digest the USDA bearish report [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. US soybean crushing increased slightly, while exports decreased [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are weak and in the process of finding a bottom. Domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by South American supply expectations, and near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - reserve sales and customs clearance [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices rose slightly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down compared to last year, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Downstream inventory has increased, and procurement enthusiasm will decline [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell due to the uncertainty of B50 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in December but increased year - on - year. Exports increased. The near - term inventory increased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Edible oils are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and trade in the weak seasonal production cut cycle in the long - term. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,274 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.27% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices fell due to Indian production pressure. Domestic sales progress is slow, and SR05 is under pressure from both imported and domestic sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, ICE US cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and international crude oil prices rose significantly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton production forecast decreased in 25/26. Domestic cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the upward trend is still valid [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see. The price reference range is 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. Festival stocking drove demand, but supply is sufficient [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The January pig slaughter volume is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. Demand is stable in the short - term and will increase at the end of the month [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply is decreasing, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate stronger [6][7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9,779 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.55% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: This year's apple production is low, with poor quality. Cold - storage apple sales are slow, and there is competition from other fruits. The post - holiday price risk depends on pre - holiday sales [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis strengthened, and the market transaction was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising but slowing down. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, while other sectors' demand is stable [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4,888 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, supply is at a high level, demand is seasonally weakening, and inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are low. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1,097 yuan per ton, a fall of 3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass production cuts increased, sales improved, supply decreased, and inventory decreased from a high level. Downstream demand is weak, and production is at a loss [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market transaction was average [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising, and the export window is open. Downstream start - up rates increased due to national subsidy policies [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, it is recommended to go short at high prices [8][9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose for five consecutive days due to geopolitical risks [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is still large, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is above the five - year average [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is not recommended to chase high prices. Wait for opportunities to go short or buy out - of - the - money put options [9]. Styrene (EB) - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The market trading atmosphere was average [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal - to - high levels. Demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, it is recommended to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse spreads and long on styrene profits [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1,211 yuan per ton, a fall of 1.3% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply is recovering, demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to do reverse spreads or go long on glass and short on soda ash [9].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/0 7 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 268 322 8 0 - 2026/01/0 8 801 2230 2220 2340 - 2345 2448 264 322 -19 -10 - 2026/01/0 9 801 2250 2235 2340 - 2345 2430 267 322 -20 -10 - 2026/01/1 2 801 2260 2250 2340 - 2345 2438 267 322 -12 -10 - 2026/01/1 3 801 2257 2255 2345 - 2315 2430 - - - -27 - 日度变化 0 -3 5 5 - -30 -8 - - - -17 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变 ...

2026 年 01 月 14 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260114 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15, 975 | 16. 130 | -155 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 140 | 16. 030 | +110 | | | | 成交量(手) | 380, 256 | 349, 692 | +30. 564 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 194. 674 | 200. 506 | -5, 832 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 105. 590 | 104. 590 | +1,000 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 46. 325 | 46. 564 | -239 | | 价差数据 | 患差 | 现货-期货主力 | -275 | -330 | +55 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -925 | -1,000 | +75 | | | ...