纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-26 周中苯乙烯港口库存回升，下游利润有所压缩 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润197元/吨（+20元/吨），PS生产利润-353元/吨（+70元/吨），ABS生产利润-1041元/吨 （+1元/吨）。EPS开工率0.00%（-48.02%），PS开工率49.40%（-0.30%），ABS开工率68.90%（+0.00%）。 市场分析 原油方面。美伊局势仍是焦点，特朗普表示伊朗未放弃核野心，但仍保留外交窗口，继续关注谈判动向及对芳烃 成本的影响。 纯苯方面。节后港口库存微幅累积，港口库存仍处于历史高位。中国纯苯开工率明显较前期底部回升，进口到港 后续压力仍存。下游表现尚可，苯乙烯开工有进一步回升预期；己内酰胺开工仍处于低位，苯酚、苯胺、己二酸 开工均在偏高位。 苯乙烯方面，国内开工见底回升，苯乙烯港口库存周中继续回升，但库存绝对水平略低于同期；另外仍关注长停 的京博及玉皇后续的复工可能。节后下游EPS企业采购积极性有所回升；但苯乙烯涨价后，下游生产利润大幅压缩， 特别是ABS亏损加剧。 策略 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-32元/吨（+17）。纯 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 下游询价增多 铜价或逐步企稳回升 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-02-25，沪铜主力合约开于 101650元/吨，收于 102460元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.94%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 102,880元/吨，收于 103,040 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.58%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨沪期铜2603合约换月首日，现货报价随合约切换显著调整。市场供需两端同步回暖：前期锁定的 进口货源持续到港，叠加未交割仓单陆续流出，流通货源维持高位；下游企业节后逐步复工，入市询价采购增多， 采销情绪明显回升。值得注意的是，供应增量释放更为直接，尤其未交割仓单流出对升贴水形成压制。不过隔月 Contango结构下，持货商向远月交仓意愿分流部分现货，对贴水构成支撑。整体处于节后再平衡初期，预计今日 现货贴水仍将承压。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，美国商务部表示，将对从印度、印度尼西亚和老挝进口的晶硅太阳能电池组件征收反补贴税，理由是 其生产商受益于政府补贴，削弱美国本土产品竞争力。根据初裁结果，印度生产商/出口商的一般补贴税率被设定 为125.87% ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-26 股指持续回升 市场分析 地产松绑。宏观方面，上海市五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（"沪七条"），自2026 年2月26日起施行。新政重点调减限购政策：非沪籍居民购买外环内住房社保年限从3年降至1年，缴纳社保满3年 可增购1套；持居住证满5年可购1套，无需社保。公积金家庭贷款最高额度可达到324万元。只要沪籍家庭新购住 房是其名下唯一住房，即可暂免征收房产税。美国贸易代表格里尔近日表示，将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶 段经贸协议情况301调查，并可能采取关税措施。海外方面，美国商务部表示，将对从印度、印度尼西亚和老挝进 口的晶硅太阳能电池组件征收反补贴税，理由是其生产商受益于政府补贴，削弱美国本土产品竞争力。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走强，上证指数涨0.72%收于4147.23点，创业板指涨1.41%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，钢铁、有色金属、建筑材料、房地产、基础化工行业涨幅超2%，仅银行、传媒行业收跌。市 场延续放量，当日沪深两市成交额超2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.26%报23152.08点。 IC增仓 ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-26 豆一高价博弈需求，花生震荡静待复工 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4679.00元/吨，较前日变化+46.00元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-79，较前日变化-46，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场今日大豆价格暂稳，贸易商基本暂未大面积复工，市场报价较为谨慎。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.24元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河 嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.37元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货盘面震荡上行。豆一期货接连刷新高点，不过下游需求依然平淡，购销氛围未见显著回暖。后续需 观察加工企业及贸易环节的补库动作，若实际补库意愿提升，或 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 氧化铝现货招标价低于预期 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23380元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-200元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-40元/吨；中原A00铝价23300元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-280元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23450元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-55元/吨至-130元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-25日沪铝主力合约开于23580元/吨，收于23835元/吨，较上一交易日变化155元/吨，最 高价达23910元/吨，最低价达到23535元/吨。全天交易日成交238350手，全天交易日持仓248160手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存110.8万吨，较上一期变化21.6万吨，仓单库存 285175吨，较上一交易日变化2576吨，LME铝库存469550吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2560元/吨，河南价格录 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 硅价持续震荡，去库过程艰难 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-25，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8380元/吨，最后收于8430元/吨，较前一日结算变化（25） 元/吨，变化（0.3）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓313959手，2026-02-24仓单总数为20817手，较前一日变化840 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，目前供应端显著收缩，价格支撑明显，但多晶硅高库存始终压制需求，价格缺 乏上行动力。供需双弱下，关注节后大厂复工计划及资金情绪变化。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进 度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计2月12日 ...

期 货 研 究 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23835 | 285 | 320 | -495 | 2535 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23980 | - | - | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3175 | 64 | 70 | 26 | 287 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 238350 | 120134 | 49768 | -294919 | 37488 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 2481 60 | 120523 | 63374 | 59167 | -18776 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 20907 | 2949 | 4606 | -16841 | -6036 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 10. 08% | -0. 38% | 0. 57% | -0. 32% | 0. 92% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. Instead, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, rubber has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend; while many commodities like synthetic rubber, LLDPE (in some cases), and methanol have a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral trend [4][7][10]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and price trends of multiple energy - chemical commodities. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation, cost factors, and external influencing factors. For instance, some commodities are affected by raw material price fluctuations, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes, production capacity adjustments, and geopolitical events [10][14][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to be oscillating strongly. The main contract's price increased on both the day and night sessions, with the day - closing price rising from 17,030 yuan/ton to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price from 17,180 yuan/ton to 17,315 yuan/ton. The open - interest also increased [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises resumed production as planned, with semi - steel tire orders in February better than those of all - steel tires. Market orders are better than last year, and trading is expected to improve [6]. Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate downward. The main contract's price decreased, with the day - closing price dropping from 13,140 yuan/ton to 13,045 yuan/ton, and the open - interest also decreasing [7]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory increased significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure coming from the weakening fundamentals and the lower support from international energy prices and international butadiene prices [8][9]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Crude oil provides strong cost support, but its own supply - demand pattern is average. After the holiday, the demand for mulch films is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover. The supply - side contradictions are not significant for now [10][11]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production capacity before the 2605 contract, and the supply - demand game among existing capacities intensifies. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [10][11]. Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The near - month delivery pressure is high, but the cost still provides support. The 05 - contract futures price is 2167 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 167 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, liquid chlorine was weak, which supported the caustic soda price. After the festival, due to high inventory, the short - term sharp increase space is limited. The market will first deal with the delivery pressure and then consider future production reduction expectations and improved downstream demand [14]. Pulp - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price had a slight increase during the day session and a decrease during the night session. The open - interest decreased [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The futures market oscillated at a high level, and the spot market remained stable after the price increase. The demand side is favorable, but there is also pressure from port inventory accumulation. The price of household paper is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the inventory and downstream procurement sentiment [20][21]. Glass - **Price Trend**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price increased slightly, with the 05 - contract closing at 1064 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [23]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, domestic float glass factories plan to raise prices, but the downstream market starts slowly. The implementation of the new price needs further follow - up [23]. Methanol - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 2285 yuan/ton to 2249 yuan/ton [26]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price index decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [28][29]. Urea - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 1855 yuan/ton to 1838 yuan/ton [31]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased significantly. In the short - term, the futures price will enter an oscillating pattern, and the medium - term focus is on the start of the grass - roots market [32][33]. Styrene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly [34]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, the overseas styrene price was strong, and the domestic port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the destocking amplitude after March and the restart progress of marginal devices [35]. Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: The spot market has little change. The futures price increased, with the 05 - contract closing at 1191 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [37]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with enterprises' device operation oscillating and downstream demand in a wait - and - see state. In the short - term, the market will adjust weakly and stably [37]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply tightened, and the night - session price soared. The prices of each contract had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand remained tight, and the spot price was stable. The prices of each contract also had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Market Conditions**: Saudi Arabia cancelled the FOB loading plan from March 1 - 24 due to a facility failure, which led to a sharp rise in the international paper - cargo price. There are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [45][46]. PVC - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05 - contract futures price is 4963 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 243 yuan/ton [48]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged. In 2026, the supply - side production reduction during the maintenance peak season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [48]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounded, and the weakness was temporarily alleviated. The prices of each contract decreased [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price dropped from a high level, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market slightly shrank. The prices of each contract also decreased [50]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. The prices of each contract decreased [52]. - **Market Conditions**: The short - term price was under pressure due to Maersk's price cut in the 11th week of March. In the medium - and long - term, the uncertainty lies in the resumption of shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment suggestions [61][63][64]. Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Staple Fiber**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The futures price decreased, the spot price was mostly stable, and the downstream demand was weak [66]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillated and decreased, the factory price was mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere improved [67]. Offset Printing Paper - **Price Trend**: It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price and cost of each paper type remained stable, and the futures price had a slight decrease [69]. - **Market Conditions**: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the market started slowly after the holiday, and the trading was light. The industry was in a wait - and - see mood [70][72]. Pure Benzene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly [74]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 24, 2026, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. The market atmosphere was average on the day, and the trading volume decreased [75][76].

2026 年 2 月 26 日 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，现货横盘整理 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com LPG：供应收紧，夜盘冲高 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 2604 | 4,272 4,510 | -0.58% -1.57% | 4,309 4,588 | 0.87% 1.73% | PG | 2603 2604 | 22,851 75,507 | -4,097 -3,677 | 8,216 82,176 | -4,396 1,926 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,444 | -1.31% | 4,504 | 1. ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 纯碱： 周三纯碱期货涨幅较大，现货价格持稳为主。周三商品市场涨多跌少，市场情绪改善。从基本面来看，近期碱检修安排较少，上上周纯碱产量环比增加1.8 万吨至79.2万吨，近期产量预期下降，供应端压力略减。下游需求小幅下滑，上上周碱厂库存环比增加1.0万吨至158.8万吨，最新交割库库存较前一周减少 1.5万吨至30.8万吨。上上周浮法玻璃冷修2条产线、光伏玻璃产线无变动；本周光伏玻璃点火1条产线。近期浮法玻璃与光伏玻璃日熔量之和下降，重碱需求 下降，轻碱需求略降，中下游采购积极性转弱。12月纯碱进口略升至0.35万吨，出口上升至23.27万吨。宏观方面，近期国内房地产销售数据环比下降，低于 去年同期水平；国外宏观影响偏中性（美元指数下跌、贸易摩擦担忧减弱）；国内政策扰动减弱。综合来看，短期纯碱供应略降、需求暂稳，市场情绪改 善，纯碱暂时延续震荡。仓单方面，周三纯碱仓单持稳至3224张。 短期纯碱期价区间震荡，SA2605日内参考1170-1200区间。 （胡鹏 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0019445，仅供参考） 玻璃： 截至2026年2月25日日 ...