塑料产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7254 | 29 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 | 26 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 218535 | 9174 持仓量(日,手) | 436321 | -12259 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 28 | 3 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 356143 | -7143 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 396063 | -15721 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -39920 | 8578 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7244.78 | -15.65 LLDPE(7042)均价 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 下游按需采购 电解铅市场成交逐步转强 绝对价格：谨慎偏多 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，但冶炼厂对高银矿采购意愿同样低迷，而目前处于淡旺季交替之际，储能电池 板块表现突出，受益于移动基站、数据中心等需求支撑，相关企业开工率普遍达80-100%。行业对下半年预期乐观， 其余板块蓄电池也存在开工率逐步回升的情况。因此操作上依然建议以逢低买入套保为主。 期权策略：卖出看跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-08，LME铅现货升水为-25.31美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16900 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-40.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16900元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-75元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 氧化铝的仓单风险仍在继续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20600元/吨，较上一交易日下跌40元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌20元/吨至-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20480元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20580元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至-70元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-08日沪铝主力合约开于20460元/吨，收于20525元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20570元/吨，最低价达到20430元/吨。全天交易日成交109583手，较上一交易日减 少39087手，全天交易日持仓254726手，较上一交易日减少598手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-08，LME铝库存384350 吨，较前一交易日增加13200吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-08 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3100元/吨，山东价格录得30 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 仓单持续注销，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 整体来看，短期盘面拉涨带动现货与锂矿价格上涨，刚需有一定支撑，但盘面反弹后成交情况一般，近期新能源 品种均表现较强，碳酸锂7月老仓单需注销，新仓单注册情况不明，短期碳酸锂盘面偏强运行，后续需关注新仓单 注册情况。 单边：短期观望，若盘面反弹可逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 2025年7月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63860元/吨，收于63880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价小幅上涨。当日 成交量为545405手，持仓量为338034手，较前一交易日增加15500手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1110 元/吨。所有合约总持仓599714手，较前一交易日增加8534手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加391491手，整 体投机度为1.13。当日碳酸锂仓单12655手，较上个交易日减少2700手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.21-6.37万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.008-6.18万元/吨，较前一交易 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-09 山东液氯继续下跌，支撑烧碱盘面 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4894元/吨（+2）；华东基差-114元/吨（-2）;华南基差-64元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（-20）；电石利润105元/吨（-20）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-7.7美元/吨（+1.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2408元/吨（+0）；山东32%液碱基差123元/吨（+63）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱报 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 政策及情绪影响继续发酵，多晶硅盘面触及涨停 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8200（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（0）元/吨。现货价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，6月国内有机硅DMC产量环比5月 增加13.75％，同比减少1.60％。后续开工方面，7月虽国内仍有部分单体企业开工负荷有所下降，但整体影响量较 为有限，7月预估有机硅产量环比6月上升1.53％。 策略 基本面短期稍有好转，供应端西北大厂减产，西南开工低于往年，消费端环比有一定提升。但行业总库存水平较 高，反弹后有套保压力，且短期停产企业及西南丰水期均有复产可能，终端消费并未改善，基本面偏弱。工业硅 期货盘面上涨主要受多晶硅大幅拉涨影响，后续需关注工业硅行业是否有政策推动，短期建议观望为主，若无政 策推动，仍以逢高卖出套保为主。 单边：短期观望，上游逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-09 沙特装置近期重启中，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4267元/吨（较前一交易日变动-12元/吨，幅度-0.28%），EG华东市场现货价 4343元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.09%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比-1元/吨）。 沙特几套分别为45、55、70万吨/年的乙二醇装置于近期重启中，该装置上周因电力问题短暂停车。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比+17美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为15元/吨（环比-20 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外 ...

港口到港压力仍存，价格震荡偏弱 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-09 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（-20）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1965元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差192元/吨（-1），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2280元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差107元/吨（+4）；河南2175元/吨（+0），河南基差2元/吨（+19）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差72元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250吨（-7450）， 西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2402元/吨（-23），太仓基差29元/吨（-4），CFR中国280美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-32元/吨 （-23），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2415元/吨（-20），广东基差42元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-09 供应充足，盘面弱势震荡 市场分析 1、\t7月8日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4580； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4457元/吨，涨56元/吨，丁烷4229元/吨，涨80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨14美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，涨15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨112元/吨，丁烷4268元/吨，涨119元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日原油价格走强，但对LPG市场提振有限，盘面维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。现货方面，沿江地区有所下跌， 其余区域主流维稳，氛围温和，上游库压尚可，下游按需采购。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕； 国内供应尚可，整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, and NR is rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Driven by the warming macro - atmosphere, rubber prices rebounded slightly. Currently, the absolute price of rubber is at a low level. From the perspective of spreads and production profits, RU is in an undervalued range, and the valuation of NR is not significantly overvalued. However, the current driving force is still weak due to the peak rubber - tapping season at home and abroad, with production maintaining a recovery pattern. Affected by seasonal rainfall, it is not the peak period of raw material output. In China, due to the better profit of concentrated latex factories than that of whole - latex production, the phenomenon of factories competing for raw materials still exists, and domestic raw material prices remain firm. But overseas rainfall has eased, and it is expected that raw material prices will continue to weaken, reducing the cost - side support for rubber. This week, the maintenance of domestic semi - steel tire factories may gradually end, and the operating rate is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak. For BR, the news of the fault of the upstream atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of butadiene and the warming macro - atmosphere drove a significant rebound in cis - butadiene rubber. However, the actual impact on the butadiene unit is limited. The supply is expected to change little this week. Although Shandong Yihua is under maintenance, some private units have plans to increase production. The production profit is still around the break - even point, limiting the supply increase. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tire factories is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak, and the rebound amplitude is limited. The supply - demand contradiction of cis - butadiene rubber itself is not significant. The upstream butadiene raw material supply is abundant, and there is rigid procurement at low prices, so the price fluctuation is expected to be limited. Cis - butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,660 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons, with different growth rates in different regions. - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. - USA: In the first five months of 2025, the United States imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the United States imported a total of 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the RU basis was - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+ 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,192 yuan/ton (- 37.10), the NR basis was 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 11.00). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 7.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.53% (- 0.70%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 64.13% (- 6.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,590 tons (+ 7,445.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), the RU futures inventory was 188,850 tons (- 3,110), and the NR futures inventory was 29,736 tons (+ 2,118) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,150 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,170 yuan/ton (+ 251). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98% (+ 0.19%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,800 tons (+ 430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,350 tons (- 1,300) [3]