1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: With the release of MPOA production data and potential inventory decline at the end of the month, crude palm oil futures may break through previous highs. However, due to the expected seasonal increase in July production, beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market may continue to rise in the short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The US Senate passed a fiscal spending bill including 45Z tax credits, which is expected to boost soybean oil consumption if passed by the House and signed by the President. Domestically, high factory operating rates have increased inventory, but the selling pressure on oil mills is not large, and the decline is expected to be limited [1]. 2.2 Corn - The current corn price is stable but lacks upward momentum due to continuous import auctions. In the medium - term, supply is tight, imports are low, and consumption is increasing, which may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to policy auctions [3][5]. 2.3 Meal - US soybeans have strengthened technical support and rebounded. Brazilian soybean prices are rising. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, but there is no significant inventory pressure on soybean meal. The supply is expected to be high, and attention should be paid to demand [6]. 2.4 Pork - The spot price of live pigs is oscillating strongly. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing, and attention should be paid to the pressure above 14,500 [9]. 2.5 Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline has supported the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the global supply is loose, and the rebound is limited. Domestically, the market sentiment is positive, but considering future imports, the market may turn bearish after the rebound [12]. 2.6 Cotton - The short - term supply of old - crop cotton is tight, but the long - term supply is sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [14]. 2.7 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On July 3, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,290 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,994 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,478 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; the futures price of O1509 was 9,618 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 20 yuan/ton, down 54.55%; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100.00%; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 65 yuan/ton, up 6.15% [1]. 3.2 Corn - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2,363 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,731 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Market situation**: In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and prices are firm; in North China, the shipment volume has increased slightly, and deep - processing prices are stable with partial declines. The overall demand is resilient, but wheat substitution limits price increases [3]. 3.3 Meal - **Prices**: On July 3, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,958 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,601 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [6]. - **Market situation**: US soybean prices have rebounded, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is expected to be high [6]. 3.4 Pork - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of the main live - pig contract was 830 yuan/ton, up 9.21%. The spot price in Henan was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market situation**: The inventory of secondary - fattened pigs is increasing, the slaughter procurement is more difficult, and the spot price is rising. The market sentiment is positive in the short - term, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing [9]. 3.5 Sugar - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,576 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the futures price of sugar 2509 was 5,767 yuan/ton, up 0.02%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.37 cents/pound, up 5.21% [12]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production and sales have increased year - on - year, and the inventory has decreased [12]. 3.6 Cotton - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,785 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,785 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.43 cents/pound, down 0.31% [14]. - **Industry situation**: The inventory in the north is decreasing, the industrial inventory is slightly down, and the import volume has decreased. The downstream inventory is increasing, and the processing profit is decreasing [14]. 3.7 Eggs - **Prices**: On July 3, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3,690 yuan/500KG, up 0.33%; the futures price of the egg 08 contract was 3,565 yuan/500KG, up 0.59%. The egg - producing area price was 2.60 yuan/jin, unchanged [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices are expected to be stable with a slight decline in the short - term [15].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a bullish trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8522.00 yuan and closing at 8482.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.27% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Hualian Futures suggests a support level for palm oil at around 7800 yuan [2]. - Zhonghui Futures anticipates that palm oil will mainly operate below previous highs in the near term [3]. - Ningzheng Futures recommends a low-position buying strategy for palm oil due to reduced production and increased exports in June [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - SPPOMA data indicates a 0.65% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 to June 30, while exports have slightly increased, alleviating inventory pressure [2]. - The recent U.S. Senate decision to restrict tax credits for biofuels produced from non-North American materials is expected to positively impact soybean oil prices, indirectly affecting palm oil [2]. - The domestic market is experiencing a supply surplus of palm oil, leading to weak demand, as indicated by the ongoing inversion in the price difference between soybean and palm oil [4].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合約 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 成高价 : | 或低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | 成交量 : | 特企业 | 特色重变化: | | ...

油脂：美生柴政策利好 油脂震荡收涨 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、6 月 30 日美国农业部发布的播种意向数据显示，2025 年美国农户计划播种 8338 万 英亩大豆，低于 3 月份预测的 8349.5 万英亩，同比降低 4.2%，也低于市场平均预估的 8365.5 万英亩（范围 8250-8530 万英亩）。 2、美国农业部作物进展周报显示，截至周日(6 月 29 日），大豆出苗率为 94%，高于前 一周的 90%，历史均值 95%。大豆优良率为 66%，和上周持平，而分析师预期优良率提高到 67%。 3、美国参议院最新税收法案提出，将禁止使用北美以外原料（如中国废弃食用油）生 产的生物燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。该措施较此前版本更为严格。原提案允许使用进口原料的 燃料生产商申请 80%的税收抵免。 4、南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2025 年 6 月 1-30 日，南马来西亚 棕榈油产量环比减少 0.65%，其中鲜果串单产环比减少 0.23%，出油率（OER）减少 0.08%。 1 / 3 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号： ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The outlook for soybean meal is short - term weak with potential for long - term price increase, and the live hog market is expected to be volatile in the medium - term [1][2][17]. - The weather in the US Midwest is expected to improve crop growth, which may impact the soybean market [3][4]. - Various macro and industry news such as US soybean压榨 volume, import costs, and livestock product prices have implications for the soybean meal and live hog markets [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed 0.57% lower at 2961 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose 3.43% to 14340 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 15.21 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract was flat at 1028 cents/bushel [1][2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest, there will be showers in some areas in the coming days, which may help improve crop growth. A stagnant front brought heavy rain to the north, and another front will bring showers. The warm and wet weather is beneficial for crop growth in many areas [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - US soybean压榨 volume in a certain month was 6.11 million tons, higher than the previous month and last year. Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased on July 2nd [5]. - On July 1st, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased [5]. - The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in June was adjusted. The estimated live hog average price in the second half of 2025 is 14 - 16 yuan/kg [6][7]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket" product index decreased on July 1st. The prices of pork, beef, mutton, eggs, and other agricultural products also declined [7]. - The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, in the contraction range, and the May JOLTS job vacancies were 7.769 million, higher than expected [7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 contract is in a narrow - range bottom - shaking pattern, while the M01 contract may rise. The soybean meal spot price is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a possible break below 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis may decline slightly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: In the short - term, live hog futures prices may rebound due to reduced supply and positive policies. However, in the medium - term, the increase in supply and weak demand limit the upside of the spot price, and the market will be volatile [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the biodiesel industry, indicating a potential increase in stock prices relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [5][30]. Core Insights - The price center for HVO and SAF continues to rise, with domestic Ucome prices slightly narrowing. The international SAF landed price is reported at $2065.90 per ton, a slight decrease of 2.90% from the previous week, while the HVO offshore price is at 2146.65 yuan per ton, down 4.01% [1]. - Domestic waste oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with average prices for waste oil at 6940 yuan per ton (up 130 yuan) and gutter oil at 6500 yuan per ton (up 80 yuan) [2]. - The international crude oil market has shown volatility, impacting biodiesel prices. Despite cost-driven increases in Ucome, the price rise is insufficient to cover raw material costs, leading to reduced enthusiasm among producers [3]. - Recent export data for May indicates a subdued performance, with Ucome export volumes around 60,000 tons, and a notable trend of re-importing Ucome from Hong Kong [3]. - Germany has introduced a draft law to revise biofuel targets, aiming to curb fraud in the sector, which may lead to significant price increases for biofuels and compliance certificates [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report highlights the upward movement in HVO and SAF prices, with domestic Ucome prices influenced by raw material costs. The price dynamics in Europe show a slight decrease in FAME prices, while the demand in the HVO/SAF market remains supportive [1][3]. Export Performance - The report notes that the export performance of biodiesel products has been lackluster, with specific attention to the role of Hong Kong as a key transit point for Ucome [3]. Regulatory Developments - The introduction of new regulations in Germany is aimed at enhancing the integrity of the biofuel market, which could lead to increased prices and stricter compliance requirements [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, as they are expected to benefit from increased demand and improved raw material supply [4].

豆粕的奇迹没上演几天，就又下跌了，并且再次跌破2800元/吨这个关键位置。 为什么2800是个关键位置？ 我们之前分析过，因为从近两年行情来看，豆粕跌破2800后，时间很短就会出现一波回调，也就说明豆粕在这个位置是有支撑的。 支撑从哪来呢？ 一是成本，二是需求，三是市场情绪及预期。 比如拿去年举例，去年豆粕库存压力很大，但也依然在跌破2800以后就跌不动了。 为什么？ 说白了，进口大豆也有成本，也不是大风刮来的，更不是想刮多少就刮多少的，所以七七八八算下来有刚性成本支撑。 而需求方面，去年猪价好转，养殖户扭亏为盈，生猪补栏等操作量也增加了，所以也有刚性需求支撑。 今年猪价虽然说有所走弱，但整体生猪产能仍处于高位，刚性需求也并不少。 至于市场预期要从短期和长期两个维度来看了。 短期看，豆粕比较弱，因为当前正是南美大豆出口旺季，进口大豆到港量庞大，再加上天气不稳定，巴西大豆保存难度增加，所以油厂也是开足马力，大肆 生产，所以豆粕有累库的现象。 但豆粕不一样，由于我们对进口大豆的依赖太大，所以可以说国际市场的风吹草动，都会影响到豆粕。 比如，近期国际市场的变化就有点大。 但是需求主体提货不仅要考虑短期，更要考虑长期 ...

华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 研究报告 油脂周报 利好刺激，油脂大幅上涨 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价大幅上涨，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 4.75%， 以 8156 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约上涨 4.86%以 8536 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约上涨 4.47%，以 9726 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 798813 吨，较上月同期出口的 720422 吨 增加 10.88%。马棕榈油上涨 4.79%。 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 23 星期一 豆油方面：6 月 13 日，美国环保署（EPA）公布最新的掺混 标准提案，该提案大幅提高了 2026 年和 2027 年生物质基柴油义 务量目标，将2026 年生物燃料混合总量设定为240.2 亿加仑，202 ...

油脂：能源恐慌叠加生柴利好 油脂集体大涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 7960.00 | 7786.00 | 174.00 | 2.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 8436.00 | 8140.00 | 296.00 | 3.64% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 9505.00 | 9310.00 | 195.00 | 2.09% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1068.50 | 1043.00 | 25.50 | 2.44% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/磅 | 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the good condition of corn quality rate and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have raised concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, freight has decreased recently, leading to continuous outflow of grain sources, accelerating the decline of trade inventory and increasing the market's bullish expectation. In the North China and Huanghuai areas, traders have shifted to purchasing wheat, so corn shipments have decreased, port inventory has continued to decline, supply - side pressure has continued to ease, and the bullish expectation in the market has strengthened. However, there are rumors that imported corn will start auctioning at the end of June. For the futures market, after a continuous rise, the upward trend has slowed down recently, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to the short - term shortage of raw corn supply in parts of North China and continuous losses in corn starch production, the industry's operating rate has continued to decline to a new low this year. With the obvious reduction of supply pressure and the support of firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch has performed relatively well, and industry inventory has also slightly declined. Affected by the slight decline of corn, the starch price has dropped with the market, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2359 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 116 yuan/ton; the futures open interest of active contracts for yellow corn is 637414 hands, a decrease of 64999 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch is - 3960 hands, an increase of 4522 hands; the registered warrant volume of yellow corn is 215285 hands, a decrease of 1000 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 444.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.25 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest is 1614274 contracts, a decrease of 54876 contracts; CBOT corn non - commercial net long position is - 14435 contracts, a decrease of 95494 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2407.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.96 yuan/ton; the factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the fob price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is unchanged; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 31 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 48.65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.96 yuan/ton; the difference between Shandong starch and corn is 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons; in Brazil, the sown area is 131 million hectares, and the output is 22.6 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons; in Argentina, the sown area is 53 million hectares, and the output is 7.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, and the output is 44.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons; in Ukraine, the output is 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 101.6 tons, a decrease of 13.4 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 465.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 391 tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of corn is 18 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 23.72 tons, an increase of 3.37 tons; the monthly output of feed is 2664 tons, a decrease of 113.2 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it is - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 33.48 days, a decrease of 1.87 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 118.6 tons, a decrease of 2.17 tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 49.06%, a decrease of 0.86%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 48.71%, a decrease of 3.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.09%, an increase of 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.49%, an increase of 0.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.87%, a decrease of 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.87%, a decrease of 0.49% [2]. Industry News - The US EPA announced a new proposal on June 12, planning to significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biofuels from 2026 - 2027. The total biofuel blending volume will increase to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and further to 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, a significant increase compared to 22.33 billion gallons in 2025 [2]. - The BAGE reported that as of June 11, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn was 46.7%, only 2.9 percentage points higher than a week ago. The USDA lowered the estimated ending inventory of the US 2024/25 from 1.415 billion bushels last month to 1.365 billion bushels, and the 2025/26 ending inventory from 1.8 billion bushels to 1.75 billion bushels, both lower than analysts' expectations [2].