Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan/ton, and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.19% at 3,602 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices maintain an oscillating trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but the expectation of a looser medium - term balance sheet limits the upside space of prices [1] - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil currently lack highlights. The market structure has been continuously adjusted recently, especially the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. However, the peak demand season of downstream power generation terminals provides some support to the market. Egypt's purchasing power is relatively strong, with an expected import volume of 990,000 tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 990,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons. But with the increase in Egypt's LNG imports, the subsequent demand growth space for fuel oil in power plants may be limited. The structural positive factors of high - sulfur fuel oil have not completely subsided. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have recently loosened marginally. The arrival of Brazilian tanker cargoes has increased, and Kuwait's exports have also begun to resume. The spot supply in the Asia - Pacific region is relatively abundant. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Group 3: Strategies - For high - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Cross - variety: Positions of shorting FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) in the early stage can be appropriately stopped for profit [2] - Cross - period: FU reverse spread positions in the early stage can be gradually stopped for profit [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile, with crude oil rising significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread was volatile, at $7.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread, and the basis was also volatile. The domestic and foreign spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (with expected large delivery volume), and the 09 contract fluctuated around $8. The 0.5 - cst cracking in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread was volatile. This week, Singapore's land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased, low - sulfur floating storage increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory was volatile, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, being moderately high compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not eligible for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions, and if the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, with the overseas market operating strongly. The domestic and foreign near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, with low valuation and continued gaming. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and foreign valuations of LU are high [6][7]. 2. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | 5.33 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.75 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 7.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -2.10 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 0.92 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 6.22 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 2.16 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -3.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -0.81 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.89 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 2.78 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 3.56 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.12 | | 380 - cst Basis | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -6.1 | [5] Domestic FU and LU Contract Data | Contract | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -11 | | FU 05 | -2 | | FU 09 | 4 | | FU 01 - 05 | -9 | | FU 05 - 09 | -6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 15 | | LU 01 | -9 | | LU 05 | 0 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -9 | | LU 05 - 09 | 16 | | LU 09 - 01 | -7 | [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports LLDPE and PP - PP has short - term maintenance returns and new production is progressing smoothly, with output at a year - on - year high. After the decline of the PE market, the basis strengthens, and arbitrageurs have good sales. In June, imports decreased significantly, with a slight increase expected in July. Demand is suppressed by the off - season. The strategy is that PE is expected to be range - bound, and PP is bearish on a single - side basis [36]. Methanol - The market's expectation of methanol imports has increased due to the easing of the Iranian situation, and the premium caused by geopolitical factors has been reversed. Currently, port arrivals are still low, inventory is at a low level, and the port basis is strong. Attention should be paid to the actual shipments after the restart of Iranian plants. The domestic supply is tight due to long - term maintenance at Henan Dahua and planned maintenance in Guanzhong. Demand is in the seasonal off - season. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [38]. Benzene and Styrene - The price of pure benzene continues to be weak. The overnight price of raw materials has declined, and some planned benzene - ethylene plant restarts have been suspended due to high ethylene prices. At the same time, the high - load operation of ethylene in major refineries has led to a significant increase in pure benzene supply, putting pressure on its price. In the benzene - ethylene market in East China, the market is generally stable. As the end - of - month paper - cargo delivery approaches, the basis price is relatively strong, with market transactions mainly for exchange, and overall high - price trading is limited. Downstream buyers are hesitant at high prices. In the medium term, tariffs and national subsidies may not further stimulate terminal demand. High profits in benzene - ethylene may stimulate production, and there is still pressure on the supply - demand margin, with an expected valuation repair relying on a decline in benzene - ethylene. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for benzene - ethylene resonating with raw materials [43]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices remained range - bound, as macro and fundamental factors counteracted each other. Trump reaffirmed the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including restricting its oil export revenue, but hinted that China could continue to buy Iranian oil and planned to talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices have recovered from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Fundamentally, inventories have declined for the fifth consecutive week, reaching an 11 - year seasonal low, and the inventory at the Cushing storage center has also declined for three consecutive weeks to the lowest level since February, supporting the market. The market focus is expected to shift to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Currently, Russia has stated that it will support production increases if the alliance deems it necessary. If OPEC maintains high - speed production increases, the fundamental surplus in the third quarter may continue to pressure the market, causing the center of gravity to fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support for WTI at [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent at [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC at [490, 500]. Option traders can look for opportunities as volatility narrows [47]. Urea - Short - term suggestions focus on three aspects: export - related developments, including market expectations before the Indian tender and actual port - collection volumes; the implementation of supply - side maintenance, especially whether major factories such as Shandong Mingshengda and Henan Jinkai will stop production as scheduled; and marginal changes in demand, such as weather factors and industrial procurement rhythms. The strategy is to consider going long on dips, as the rebound logic driven by news has not been fully realized, and export policy optimization and the Indian tender may continue to provide support. However, strict stop - losses should be set to prevent the risk of unmet expectations [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Near - term PX plants are under maintenance, and downstream PTA and polyester loads are high in the short term, providing support for PX at low levels. However, weak terminal demand and limited oil - price support suppress PX. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The PX09 contract is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900, and single - side trading is on hold. - PTA: Despite plant maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli, new production capacity and weak downstream demand and terminal load lead to a weakening supply - demand outlook. PTA has limited self - driving force and will follow the cost side. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900 in the short term, with single - side trading on hold and a rolling reverse - spread operation for TA9 - 1. - Ethylene Glycol: Iranian ethylene - glycol plants are restarting, and shipments are normal. The restart of domestic plants and weak demand expectations mean that supply - demand cannot drive price increases. With geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices weakening, ethylene glycol is expected to decline. The strategy is to hold short - term call - option sellers for EG2509 - C - 4450. - Short - fiber: The current supply - demand is weak. Due to planned production cuts in July and low inventory at short - fiber factories, the absolute price is slightly more supported than raw materials, and the processing margin on the futures market has recovered. The absolute price will follow raw materials. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to expand the processing margin at low levels, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts. - Bottle - grade polyester: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - grade polyester plants have cut production. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is bottoming out. The absolute price will follow the cost side. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin when it reaches the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Some plants have restarted, and current good profits may stimulate production. Downstream non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and the continuous reduction of alumina purchase prices is negative for the spot market. However, due to the recovery of alumina profits and increased production, overall demand is still supported. Weekly alkali - plant inventory has decreased, and the futures is at a discount to the spot. In the short term, there is limited downward momentum for the caustic - soda futures, but it may fluctuate. In the third quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and alumina profits may weaken, providing no positive drive for caustic soda. Considering the high - profit valuation of caustic soda, its upside is limited. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. - PVC: The short - term contradiction is not intensifying. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real - estate sector, which drags down terminal demand, and there is no obvious negative feedback or clearance in the PVC industry. Currently, PVC maintenance is decreasing, and new production is expected in June - July, increasing supply pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and exports are maintained after the extension of BIS. The social inventory has slightly increased, and further drivers need to be verified. The short - term strategy is to wait for rebounds and new drivers to look for short - selling opportunities [89]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.34% to 0.40%. L2509 - 2601 increased by 8.51%, while PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.17%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE decreased slightly, and the basis of North - China plastics and East - China PP changed significantly [36]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.86%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.42%. PE enterprise inventory decreased by 10.25%, and social inventory decreased by 16.91%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.2%, powder - material operating rate decreased by 1.3%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.2%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.72%, and trader inventory decreased by 9.21% [36]. Methanol - **Prices and Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased, with MA2509 rising 1.09%. MA91 spread increased by 38.46%, and the Taicang basis increased by 37.01%. Spot prices in different regions changed, with the port - to - inland price difference increasing [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.02%, port inventory increased by 14.34%, and social inventory increased by 6.11%. Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.85%, overseas upstream decreased by 22.67%, northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8.94%, downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 6.84%, formaldehyde decreased by 0.38%, and fatty acid increased by 4.50% [38]. Benzene and Styrene - **Raw - material Prices**: Brent crude oil was stable, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.7%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was unchanged, CFR Korea and China pure benzene decreased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread decreased slightly, and the ethylene - to - naphtha spread increased by 3.7% [40]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices**: The East - China spot price of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.2%, EB2507 and EB2508 decreased by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The basis increased by 44.2%, and the month - spread decreased by 29.6% [41]. - **Industry Chain开工率 and Profits**: Domestic and Asian pure - benzene comprehensive operating rates changed by 1.2% and - 2.3% respectively. Benzene - ethylene operating rate increased by 7.0%, PS by 0.7%, EPS decreased by 3.3%, and ABS decreased by 0.2%. Benzene - ethylene integrated profit decreased by 76.8%, non - integrated profit increased by 13.1%, PS profit decreased by 39.5%, EPS increased by 42.9%, and ABS decreased by 105.3%. Port inventories of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene changed by 2.7% and - 15.3% respectively [43]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while SC decreased by 1.46%. Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 decreased, and WTI M1 - M3 increased. Brent - WTI and SC - Brent spreads decreased, and EFS increased [47]. - **Refined - product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.46% to 1.39%. RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 increased, and Gasoil M1 - M3 was unchanged [47]. - **Refined - product Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Singapore increased to varying degrees [47]. Urea - **Prices and Changes**: Futures contract prices decreased slightly, and the basis in different regions changed significantly. Spot prices in most regions increased slightly, and the cross - regional spread changed [69][73][74]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic daily urea production decreased by 1.95%, coal - based production decreased by 2.49%, and gas - based production was unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 2.83%, and plant - maintenance losses increased by 29.60%. Factory inventory decreased by 3.53%, and port inventory increased by 29.15%. Production - enterprise order days decreased by 1.75% [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China PX prices changed, with CFR Japan naphtha decreasing by 1.7% and CFR China PX increasing by 0.4% [80]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, and other products decreased slightly, and cash flows and processing margins also changed to varying degrees [80]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased slightly, PTA operating rate decreased by 3.5%, MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 4.1%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.2%. MEG port inventory increased by 1.0%, and the expected arrival decreased by 38.0% [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Changes**: Prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda were unchanged, as were East - China PVC prices. SH2509 and SH2601 increased, while SH basis decreased by 20.2%. V2509 and V2601 changed slightly, and the V basis decreased by 0.8% [85]. - **开工率 and Profits**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. Outer - sourced calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased by 5.8%, and Northwest integrated profit increased by 6.2% [87]. - **下游开工率 and Inventory**: Alumina, viscose - staple fiber, and printing - and - dyeing industry operating rates changed slightly. PVC downstream product operating rates decreased, and caustic - soda and PVC inventories changed to varying degrees [88][89].

Report Information - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, and high-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic and overseas spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. [4][5] - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were at a moderate level. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunker fueling and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region, and cannot be used for physical delivery in the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipment volume will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. [5] - Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is running strongly, the domestic and overseas near-month spreads of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 457.84 | 481.08 | 464.95 | 460.60 | 413.51 | -47.09 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 497.59 | 517.59 | 508.06 | 509.41 | 466.22 | -43.19 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.57 | -1.07 | -1.73 | -2.41 | -1.97 | 0.44 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.10 | 764.51 | 728.36 | 713.74 | 642.12 | -71.62 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.51 | -246.92 | -220.30 | -204.33 | -175.90 | 28.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.64 | 24.87 | 22.22 | 26.31 | 21.22 | -5.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.75 | 36.51 | 43.11 | 48.81 | 52.71 | 3.90 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 478.90 | 480.47 | 478.09 | 471.10 | 427.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 484.42 | 487.41 | 487.09 | 481.07 | 436.97 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 538.95 | 542.99 | 544.13 | 540.67 | 501.16 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.34 | 96.69 | 96.50 | 93.65 | 85.76 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.93 | 0.26 | -0.27 | -0.98 | -0.54 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -151.77 | -172.52 | -169.97 | -152.34 | -133.46 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 486.91 | 485.32 | 479.12 | 475.90 | 431.62 | -44.28 | | FOB VLSFO | 548.13 | 550.77 | 550.33 | 549.45 | 508.57 | -40.88 | | 380 Basis | 7.55 | 4.65 | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.75 | -0.90 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 9.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 0.7 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 20.0 | 20.4 | 16.2 | 18.8 | 21.1 | 2.3 | [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 3119 | 3154 | 3152 | 3180 | 2895 | -285 | | FU 05 | 3044 | 3068 | 3079 | 3100 | 2850 | -250 | | FU 09 | 3333 | 3369 | 3363 | 3385 | 3065 | -320 | | FU 01 - 05 | 75 | 86 | 73 | 80 | 45 | -35 | | FU 05 - 09 | -289 | -301 | -284 | -285 | -215 | 70 | | FU 09 - 01 | 214 | 215 | 211 | 205 | 170 | -35 | [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3733 | 3787 | 3766 | 3815 | 3500 | -315 | | LU 05 | 3531 | 3674 | 3687 | 3701 | 3421 | -280 | | LU 09 | 3886 | 3948 | 3917 | 3968 | 3629 | -339 | | LU 01 - 05 | 202 | 113 | 79 | 114 | 79 | -35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -355 | -274 | -230 | -267 | -208 | 59 | | LU 09 - 01 | 153 | 161 | 151 | 153 | 129 | -24 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today. The SC08 contract rose 1.36% intraday. The geopolitical concerns have eased slightly, but the supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist. Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall. The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the FU cracking is weak. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall. The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and the inventory data continues to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly. The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive. The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today, with the SC08 contract rising 1.36% intraday [2]. - Trump postponed the decision on whether to attack Iran for two weeks, and the geopolitical concerns have eased slightly [2]. - The supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist before the return to the negotiation table [2]. - Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options [2]. - The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise due to the direct impact of geopolitical risks on the supply of medium-sulfur crude oil and the support of tanker freight rates [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall [3]. - The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-sulfur fuel oil has been supported since the conflict broke out [3]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep processing is low, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is greatly reduced due to the high cracking valuation [3]. - The FU cracking is weak under the strong crude oil, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, while the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall [4]. - The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited due to the consumption of crude oil quotas and the planned increase in the operation of deep processing equipment by major refineries after the maintenance peak [4]. - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has continued to increase month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April, indicating that the terminal demand is expected to increase [4]. - As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and society has continued to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly [5]. - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure due to the increase in import costs [5]. - The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas have both increased. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive [5]. - The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly under the support of strong crude oil and political risks [5].