最近国际黄金市场有点"过山车"——前几条还因美联储降息预期升温涨到3452美元/盎司，最近就因美元强势走高，被部分机构抛售，跌回3300美元附近。 但神奇的是，国内金价始终没跌破980元/克，连金店的投资金条都稳在780元上下。 面对现在黄金这种上上下下的情况，不少人疑惑："黄金是不是要大跌了？要不要赶紧卖？""现在还能买吗？"其实，黄金的"抗跌"和"波动"，恰恰藏着普通 人该懂的底层逻辑。 先给大家算笔账：国际金价以美元计价，国内金价还要叠加人民币汇率。 最近美元指数在97附近震荡，人民币汇率稳在7.15左右，所以国内金价其实是"双重支撑"。但更关键的，是黄金的"硬核属性"在撑场子。 资料来源：中国人民银行； 国家都在悄悄存黄金"压箱底"，普通人的家庭资产里，黄金自然也该有点"存在感"。 地缘冲突的"保险栓"作用 最近中东局势又有点紧张，俄乌冲突也没消停。黄金有个外号叫"恐慌指数对冲工具"——当战争、制裁这些不确定性冒头时，资金会本能往黄金里钻。就像 家里备把伞，平时可能觉得占地方，下雨时才知道它管用。 通胀的"隐形对冲" 资料来源：新浪财经—美元指数； 全球央行的"囤金潮"还在继续 世界黄金协会数据显示， ...

基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得阴线收盘至短期表现呈现争夺态势，中短期图表缺乏方向或令后市仍以震荡为主，交易者仍留意3290--3350区间内多空拉锯，关注 后市市场选择。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3247低点反弹挑战3365后本周反复上演区间内过山车走势，隔夜盘中再度回吐此前反击至价格进一步刷新区间内 低点至3286一线继续震荡。截止当前亚盘午市，价格测试3285后小幅反弹或暂承压3300关口下方徘徊。日内或留意3290一线测试尝试短多，上方压力仍留意 3330/3345附近 操作思路： 多单： 周三（7月9日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅延续隔夜跌幅至3285一线弱势反弹，目前暂交投于3292美元附近。周二，现货黄金下跌逾1%，盘中一度跌破3300 美元/盎司关口，刷新逾一周低点至3287.06美元/盎司，收盘报3301.53美元/盎司。本轮金价下跌受到贸易谈判乐观情绪、美元走强、美国国债收益率攀升以 及特朗普关税政策带来的复杂影响的共同作用。 黄金作为传统的避险资产，其价格通常在全球经济不确定性加剧时上涨。然而，近期美国与主要贸易伙伴之间的谈判释放出乐观信号，削弱了市场对避险资 产的需求。美国总统特朗普周一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].

Group 1 - The recent rebound in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, renewed trade tensions, and increased gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates as early as September, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with a notable addition of 70,000 ounces in June, bringing total reserves to 73.9 million ounces [1] Group 2 - China's central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves is seen as a response to external financial shocks and aims to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [2] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against risks associated with single currencies like the US dollar, especially in the context of trade wars and economic uncertainty [2] - Despite the continuous increase in gold reserves, China's holdings still lag behind those of developed economies, indicating potential for further accumulation of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Gold International is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage its position as a leading gold mining company and enhance its competitive strength in the industry [1][2]. Company Overview - Zijin Gold International is a spin-off from Zijin Mining Group, established in 2000, focusing on gold exploration, mining, and sales [1]. - The company holds 100% ownership by Zijin Mining Group, which operates over 30 major mining projects globally, ranking among the top five mining companies in terms of resources, revenue, and market value [1]. Financial Performance - The company has shown significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, reaching revenues of 1.818 billion, 2.262 billion, and 2.99 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Net profit has also increased substantially, with a CAGR of 61.9%, achieving net profits of 184 million, 230 million, and 481 million yuan for the same period [5]. - The gross profit margin improved from approximately 34.13% in 2022 to 37.94% in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 11.74 percentage points [5]. Mining Operations - Zijin Gold International operates eight gold mines in resource-rich regions, including Central Asia, South America, Oceania, and Africa [3]. - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for 2024 is projected at $1,458 per ounce, while the average gold price is expected to be $2,288 per ounce, indicating a healthy profit margin [7]. Market Trends - The global gold demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2020 to 2024, reaching 148.1 million ounces in 2024, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased central bank purchases [8][11]. - The average gold price is expected to rise, reaching $2,386.4 per ounce in 2024 and potentially $3,387.7 per ounce by 2026, supported by ongoing demand from emerging market central banks [11]. Strategic Positioning - The gold mining industry is experiencing increased concentration, with leading companies achieving economies of scale through mergers and resource integration [11][12]. - Zijin Gold International ranks eleventh globally in gold production among the top 15 producers, with a production growth rate of 21.4% from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong competitive positioning [12]. Future Prospects - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO for debt repayment, upgrading existing mines, and general operational expenses, indicating a strategic approach to enhance its growth and operational efficiency [5][6].

【导读】沪指冲击3500点，创业板指涨超2%，公募点评市场表现 对于今天市场的强势表现，不少公募将其归因为政策及情绪面因素。 创金合信基金表示，今日在热点板块持续活跃，反内卷政策预期下，市场走强，交投情绪活跃。 消息面上，北京时间7月8日凌晨，特朗普在个人社交媒体上给各国的信函以及白宫的fact sheet显示，他 已经给14个国家发送信件。在初步的信函名单中，总共有14个国家被恢复了高关税税率；信中还提到， 结束90天的关税暂停期，计划在8月1日重新开始征税。 对于反复不定的"关税战"，方正富邦首席投资官汤戈认为，今日A股市场大涨更多是避险情绪导致，全 球资本都在寻找安全资产。"信函关税侧面反映出，通过前一阶段的斗争，美国认识到中国的巨大实 力，故转而以更大力度施压非华地区。" 7月8日，市场大涨，沪指再一次逼近3500点。创业板指大涨近2.4%，中小盘表现突出。 盘后，记者采访了多家公募，对今日市场强势表现进行解读。基金公司普遍认为，A股市场大涨更多因 素是避险情绪导致。后市能否一举突破取决于市场风偏向好能否持续，短期内市场风格或相对均衡，仍 建议重视哑铃策略。 "反内卷"政策预期下市场走强 交投情绪活跃 ...

实时黄金订单流分析 避险情绪持续升温！黄金能否趁势上攻？当下行情如何应对？顺姐正在实时分析中，点击观看 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The easing situation in the Middle East and the rebound of the US dollar are suppressing gold prices, but concerns over the potential reintroduction of high tariffs by the US are stimulating safe-haven buying in gold [1] - The US dollar index has gradually rebounded after hitting a low last week, approaching the 98 level, which has created downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The high tariff suspension announced by Trump in April is set to expire on July 9, and the US Treasury Secretary indicated that tariffs will be reinstated on countries without trade agreements by August 1, raising concerns about the impact on the global economy and trade [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently fluctuating within the range of $3,300 to $3,365 per ounce, with a focus on the potential breakout above the $3,350 to $3,365 resistance zone [1] - The current adjustment phase in gold prices has entered its 12th week since reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce, indicating that the mid-term adjustment may be nearing its end, although the timing and manner of the next move remain uncertain [1] - The overall pattern for silver remains unchanged, with prices fluctuating between $35 and $37 per ounce after breaking through the $35 level, and there is potential for further upward movement towards the $40 to $42 range [2]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices are rising, with Chow Sang Sang leading the increase by 8 CNY to 1007 CNY per gram, reclaiming the highest price position [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores has expanded to 38 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold maintaining the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1] - Other major brands' gold prices include Lao Miao at 1000 CNY per gram, Liufuk at 1005 CNY per gram, and Zhou Dafu at 1005 CNY per gram, all showing minimal changes [1][3] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 4.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] - The recovery prices for various brands are as follows: Cai Bai at 762 CNY, Zhou Sang Sang at 766.1 CNY, Zhou Dafu at 769.5 CNY, and Lao Feng Xiang at 775 CNY [4] - International gold prices experienced a V-shaped movement, with the lowest at 3296.09 USD per ounce and closing at 3336.35 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.04% increase [6] Group 3 - The market is currently influenced by U.S. tariff announcements and geopolitical tensions, which are affecting investor sentiment towards gold [6] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 7390 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which strengthens confidence in gold's long-term value [6] - The overall expectation is for gold prices to remain volatile as the market observes developments regarding U.S. tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions [6]

基本面： 周二（7月8日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，一度涨至3345.71美元/盎司，涨幅约0.3%。金价周一的走势充分体现了美元与避险情绪的博弈。早盘因美元 反弹和地缘政治担忧降温，金价一度跌破3300美元/盎司，触及3296.37美元的低点。然而，特朗普关税政策的公布引发美股暴跌，避险需求迅速回升，推动 金价反弹至3336.19美元/盎司，接近收平。这种快速的探底回升显示出黄金市场对外部冲击的敏感性，以及其在不确定性环境中的吸引力。 黄金的长期支撑在全球经济动荡的背景下，中国人民银行的黄金储备策略为金价提供了坚实的长期支撑。7月7日，中国央行公布数据显示，6月份其连续第 八个月增持黄金储备。这一持续性的购金行动反映了中国对黄金作为战略资产的重视，特别是在全球货币体系不确定性加剧的背景下。中国央行的购金行为 不仅提振了市场信心，也为黄金的长期需求提供了保障。 中国作为全球最大的黄金消费国，其央行购金的持续性对金价形成了重要支撑。结合特朗普关税政策可能引发的全球贸易紧张局势，中国央行的行动进一步 凸显了黄金作为避险资产的战略价值。此外，其他新兴市场国家，如金砖国家成员，可能也会因特朗普的关税威胁而增加黄金储 ...