Group 1 - The report highlights that equity assets have shown strong performance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets and technology growth sectors, while commodity performance has been mixed [2][5][11] - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased, while the negative correlation between A-shares and Chinese government bonds remains strong [2][11][12] - The risk premium level for A-shares has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, with the current level at 5.8%, indicating a slight increase in relative value compared to historical averages [16][19] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Asia-Pacific region has outperformed, with notable gains in technology growth stocks; for instance, the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 5.5% [5][24][28] - Emerging markets in Asia, such as the A-share ChiNext Index and Korea's KOSDAQ, have also shown strong performance, with increases of 3.2% and 2.5% respectively [24][28] - In contrast, Latin American markets, including Brazil and Mexico, have faced continued pressure and declines [24][28] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond yield curve is "bull steep," with a general downward trend in yields for longer maturities, while the U.S. bond yield curve is "bear steep," reflecting rising yields [46][50] - Specifically, the 10-year to 2-year yield spread in China has widened, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market [46][50] - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield has increased to 4.47%, driven by inflation expectations, while the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [46][59] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown overall increases, but with significant differentiation; for example, iron ore and natural rubber prices rose over 3%, while crude oil prices fell by 1.5% to 1.6% [63][64] - The report notes that the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, although at a slower pace compared to previous weeks, with major currencies like the euro and yen depreciating against it [63][64] - Inventory levels for gold and silver have increased, contrary to the average declines seen over the past three years, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [64][71][75]

市场可能正在低估美国长期的通胀风险。德意志银行一份最新研究报告指出，尽管关键的通胀预期指标表面上保持稳定，但深入分析揭示市场对 未来通胀的真实担忧已接近十年来的最高水平，这背后与关税威胁及对美联储独立性的担忧紧密相关。 华尔街见闻文章显示，美国6月核心CPI连续5个月低于预期，市场通胀预期指标也显得相对温和。德银分析指出，近期，衡量市场长期通胀预期 的关键指标——5年期、5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率（5y5y breakevens）和通胀互换（inflation swaps）——虽然已升至近十二个月的高位，但整体 仍处于受控区间。 然而，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti及其团队在7月17日发布的报告中警告称，这种表面的平静具有欺骗性。该行分析发现，一 旦剥离油价波动对这些指标的强烈影响，一个更能反映真实通胀担忧的"风险溢价"指标便显现出来，且已攀升至2014年以来的最高水平附近。 被油价"扭曲"的通胀预期 潜在风险溢价升至十年高位 衡量市场长期通胀预期的关键指标很大程度上是受油价走势影响。报告指出，自2014年中期油价暴跌以来，现货油价与5年/5年远期盈亏平衡通胀 率及通胀互换等长期通胀 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 16, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, yields in different countries varied, e.g., the US was 4.483%, the UK was 4.624%, etc. - Latest changes ranged from -0.026% (France) to 0.048% (US). - One - week changes were between -0.008% (UK) and 0.082% (US). - One - month changes were from -0.012% (Japan) to 0.178% (Germany). - One - year changes were from -0.664% (Japan) to 0.500% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.830%, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.023% (Italy) to 0.040% (US). - One - week changes: some data were missing, with others ranging from -0.037% (UK) to 0.074% (Australia). - One - month changes were from -0.028% (Italy) to 0.170% (US). - One - year changes were from -1.345% (Italy) to 0.432% (Japan) [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 15, 2025, the rate against the Brazilian real was 5.557, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.56% (Brazil) to 0.33% (South Korean won). - One - week changes were from -0.38% (Thai baht) to 2.00% (Brazil). - One - month changes were from -1.41% (South African rand) to 1.06% (South Korean won). - One - year changes were from -11.41% (Thai baht) to 1.77% (Brazil) [3] RMB Exchange Rates - On July 15, 2025, the on - shore RMB was 7.183, the off - shore RMB was 7.185, etc. - Latest changes were from 0.01% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.17% (off - shore RMB). - One - week changes were from -0.05% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.06% (on - shore RMB). - One - month changes were from -0.35% (RMB central parity rate) to -0.02% (RMB 12 - month NDF). - One - year changes were from -1.43% (off - shore RMB) to 0.29% (RMB central parity rate) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6243.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44023.290, etc. - Latest changes were from -1.15% (Spanish index) to 1.60% (Hang Seng Index). - One - week changes were from -1.45% (Spanish index) to 4.07% (Thai index). - One - month changes were from -0.34% (Mexican index) to 8.98% (South Korean index). - One - year changes were from -11.51% (Thai index) to 38.15% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.24% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.11% (Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index). - One - week changes were from -0.34% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.18% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index). - One - month changes were from 0.16% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.31% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index). - One - year changes were from 4.75% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.83% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares were 3505.00, CSI 300 was 4019.06, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.42% (A - shares) to 1.73% (ChiNext). Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 was 13.32, S&P 500 was 26.55, etc. -环比 changes were from -0.11% (S&P 500) to -0.01% (CSI 300). Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 was -0.72, German DAX was 2.15. -环比 changes were from -0.04% (S&P 500) to 0.04% (German DAX). Fund Flows - Latest values were from -1048.16 (A - shares) to -148.29 (CSI 300). - 5 - day average values were from -566.14 (A - shares) to -23.58 (CSI 300). Trading Volume - Latest values were from 798.06 (SSE 50) to 16120.48 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). -环比 changes were from -102.33 (SSE 50) to 1533.09 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). Basis and Spread - Basis: IF was -38.46, IH was -13.03, IC was -10.56. - Spread: IF was -0.96%, IH was -0.47%, IC was -0.18% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - Closing prices: T00 was 108.890, TF00 was 106.025, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.10% (T01) to -0.07% (TF00). Funding Rates - R001 was 1.5745%, R007 was 1.5877%, SHIBOR - 3M was 1.5590%. - Daily changes (BP) were from 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) to 5.00 (R007) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 0.98% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.36%. The large-cap value index fell by 0.18%, and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.69%. The Shanghai 50 Index gained 0.60%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 2.29%. Real estate and steel sectors performed well, while coal and banking sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium. Historical extreme bottoms have shown this data to be at two standard deviations above the mean, with notable instances in 2012, 2018, and 2020. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 to exceed 4%. As of July 11, 2025, the indicator was at 3.57%, with the two standard deviation boundary at 4.76% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of July 11, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 63%. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were at 68% and 61%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 21%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 42% and 31%. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets. The last adjustment began in Q1 2021, showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 3 billion yuan, and margin trading increased by approximately 14.1 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.4748 trillion yuan [2]. Neural Network Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [9].

1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term task that has not kept pace with China's growing economic stature globally. The article explores the potential acceleration of RMB internationalization and analyzes the associated benefits and drawbacks, particularly from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [2][3]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its economic weight [6][8]. - RMB payment share globally may be underestimated, with actual RMB payment settlement estimated at around 8%, despite SWIFT reporting a lower figure [10][17]. - Historical evidence suggests that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [9][27]. Group 2: RMB Valuation and Liquidity - The market exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, primarily due to insufficient global liquidity, resulting in a high liquidity premium [4][29]. - The high M2 money supply does not equate to significant depreciation pressure, as a large portion of M2 consists of foreign exchange reserves due to trade surpluses [4][34]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which dominates global payments and reserves, contributes to its overvaluation, while the RMB's liquidity needs to be improved to enhance its valuation [4][50]. Group 3: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The current environment is favorable for accelerating RMB internationalization, with a declining USD index and increasing demand for RMB in cross-border transactions due to Chinese enterprises expanding overseas [40][50]. - The use of RMB in cross-border payments has significantly increased, with 2023 figures showing RMB cross-border payment amounts for goods and services at 24.8% and 31.9%, respectively [52]. - The low financing costs of RMB, driven by the divergence in interest rates between China and the US, enhance its attractiveness as a financing currency [53]. Group 4: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account and providing exchange facilitation for enterprises and residents to enhance RMB's global circulation [56][60]. - The establishment of a legal framework for RMB stablecoins is recommended to improve the currency's liquidity and international standing [63][64]. - The central bank should consider reducing its holdings of USD assets while increasing gold reserves to strengthen RMB's credibility [64][68]. Group 5: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization is expected to support high-quality economic growth, allowing for a potential adjustment of GDP growth targets [71]. - The internationalization of RMB can help Chinese enterprises optimize asset allocation globally, enhancing their competitiveness and market valuation [75][76]. - While RMB appreciation may negatively impact exports, the overall benefits of internationalization are expected to outweigh the drawbacks, particularly as trade quality improves [80].

Global Asset Market Performance - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies were as follows: the US was 4.401, the UK was 4.632, etc. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on July 8, 2025, showed different values for the US, UK, etc., with corresponding changes over different time periods [3]. - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies on July 8, 2025, had different values for South Africa, Brazil, etc., and also had different changes over different time periods [3]. - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates and their corresponding changes on July 8, 2025, were presented, including latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. - Major economies' stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Emerging - economy stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for Malaysia, Australia, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Credit bond indices on July 8, 2025, had different values for emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, valuations, risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were presented [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, etc., were presented, along with the money market's capital interest rates and daily changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market performance shows mixed results across various indices, with the ChiNext Index rising while the STAR 50 Index slightly declined, indicating a divergence in sector performance and potential investment opportunities in specific areas [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over the last five trading days, the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.35%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50%. The large-cap value stocks rose by 1.94%, and large-cap growth stocks increased by 1.78%. The Shanghai 50 Index saw a rise of 1.21%, and the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.53% [1]. - Steel and building materials sectors performed well, while the computer and non-bank financial sectors lagged behind [1]. Group 2: Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, reached 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022, indicating a market rebound potential. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 61%, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 67% and 60%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 20%, indicating a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 21.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 19.7 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.4136 trillion yuan [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and AI Modeling - The long-term technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with significant declines observed in previous cycles. The current adjustment phase, which began in the first quarter of 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. - A convolutional neural network model has been developed to analyze price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes, with a focus on banking and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi emphasizes the need to be cautious about the rising risk premium associated with ultra-long-term government bonds and the increasing volatility of the yield curve, which could inadvertently trigger a broad transmission of monetary tightening effects in the market [1] Group 1 - The risk premium for ultra-long-term government bonds is on the rise [1] - There is an increase in the volatility of the yield curve [1] - These factors may lead to unintended consequences in the form of monetary tightening effects spreading throughout the market [1]