外资抛售印度资产。 据最新消息，外国银行周四卖出了创纪录数量的印度国债，印度与巴基斯坦持续的边境冲突影响了投资 者的情绪。5月8日，外国银行净卖出1063亿卢比（约合人民币90亿元）的印度国债。 受此影响，印度股市、债市连续下挫。5月9日，印度SENSEX30指数一度大跌1.7%；印度10年期国债 收益率日内最高攀升至6.54%。有分析称，冲突可能会提高风险溢价，尽管局势不太可能失控，预计印 度央行可能将进行干预以抑制波动。 当前印巴之间的紧张局势不断升级。5月9日，据新华社消息，印度武装部队8日对巴基斯坦多个地点的 防空系统发动袭击，巴基斯坦击落多架印度无人机。另据央视新闻客户端，当地时间5月9日，印度军队 夜间对巴控克什米尔地区的科伊拉塔等地进行炮击，造成5名平民死亡。 01 猛烈抛售 当地时间5月9日，彭博社报道，由于印度与巴基斯坦边境冲突日益加剧，外国银行周四净卖出1063亿卢 比的印度国债，根据印度清算公司2006年以来的数据，这一数字创下了新高。 报道称，尽管市场预期印度央行可能降息以缓冲影响，但投资者仍担忧地区紧张局势升级对经济的冲 击。在全球贸易不确定性增加的情况下，印度作为安全投资目的地的吸 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign banks sold a record amount of Indian government bonds due to escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, impacting investor sentiment and leading to declines in both the Indian stock and bond markets [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - On May 8, foreign banks net sold 106.3 billion rupees (approximately 9 billion yuan) of Indian government bonds, marking the highest level of selling since 2006 [3]. - The Indian SENSEX30 index dropped by 1.7% at one point on May 9, closing with a decline of 1.21% after a previous drop of 0.51% [3][5]. - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds rose to 6.54%, reversing recent gains driven by central bank interventions [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing conflict may increase risk premiums, although they do not expect the situation to spiral out of control. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to intervene to stabilize the market [7]. - Despite favorable macroeconomic fundamentals for Indian government bonds, short-term market sentiment will largely depend on developments in the India-Pakistan situation [3][7]. Group 3: Military Developments - On May 8, the Indian armed forces launched attacks on multiple Pakistani air defense systems, while Pakistan reported shooting down several Indian drones [9][10]. - The conflict has escalated following a recent attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in significant casualties and heightened tensions between the two nations [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the two fundamental logic of investment: taking on risk to earn risk premiums and capturing market mispricing, with a focus on factor investing as a primary strategy for the "Tianxingjian" fund portfolio [2]. Factor Investment Summary 1. Size Factor: The "Comeback" of Small Companies - The size factor focuses on smaller companies, which may offer excess returns due to their higher risk profile and potential undervaluation by larger institutions [4]. 2. Value Factor: The Wisdom of Buying "Cheap Goods" - The value factor targets companies with low valuations, where the risk premium arises from potential financial troubles and market overreactions to bad news, leading to mispricing [5][6]. 3. Quality Factor: The "Reward" for Good Companies - The quality factor emphasizes financially healthy companies, where excess returns may stem from investor short-sightedness and the undervaluation of stable firms [7]. 4. Dividend Factor: The "Charm" of Cash Cows - The dividend factor focuses on companies with stable and high dividend payouts, where the risk premium may relate to growth uncertainties or interest rate sensitivities, leading to systematic undervaluation [8]. 5. Low Volatility Factor: Steady Happiness - The low volatility factor targets companies with lower stock price fluctuations, where excess returns may arise from market biases favoring high-risk stocks, resulting in undervaluation of low-volatility stocks [9]. Conclusion - Each factor that consistently outperforms the market is influenced by both risk premiums and market mispricing, with understanding these dynamics aiding in the effectiveness of factor investing [10].

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for the Chinese A/H stock market following the release of a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - The financial policy package includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 10 basis points (bp) cut in policy interest rates, and a 25 bp reduction in public housing loan rates, along with a 500 billion yuan initiative for consumer services and elderly care [2]. - Additional measures include a 300 billion yuan increase in loans for technological innovation and upgrades, which are expected to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Investor Confidence - The policy aims to stabilize investor confidence and promote a coordinated investment and financing ecosystem in the capital market, enhancing the long-term value of equity investments [3]. - The article highlights that the combination of monetary easing and structural reforms will lead to a systematic decline in the discount rate for the Chinese stock market, making investments more attractive [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors that will benefit from the declining risk-free interest rates and increased market participation, particularly in financial services and high-dividend stocks such as brokerage firms, insurance companies, and banks [3][4]. - It also suggests investing in emerging technologies with low exposure to external demand, including internet, media, gaming, domestic supply chain products, and pharmaceuticals [4].

此外，当前10年期国债收益率进一步下探至1.63%，基本来到历史新低，以红利指数、红利低波指数股 息率（近12个月）与其差值作为衡量风险溢价的指标，均已来到近十年（2015/5/6-2025/5/6）100%的最 高点，显示出A股红利类资产较高的投资价值。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025/5/6。投资国债和投资股 票的风险收益特征不同，投资者进行投资时应当全面考虑投资风险。） 据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）分别是A股首只规模达两百亿元的红利主题ETF 和红利低波主题ETF，交易所数据显示，5月6日最新规模分别为218.50亿元、159.14亿元。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理公司不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益，基金 过往业绩不能预示未来收益。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认真阅读 《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况 及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作 出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关， ...

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.40%，创业板指涨1.74%，大盘价值跌0.30%，大盘成长涨0.89%，上证50跌0.33%，国证2000代表的小盘涨2.38%，汽车、 美容护理市场表现靠前，食品饮料、房地产表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/25指标3.99%，两倍标准差边界为4.75%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/25，中证全指PETTM分位数48%，上证50与沪深300分别为60%、46%， ...

中金研究 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是人民币汇率韧性。人民币汇率的韧性为松货币增加了空间。除了传统的松货币工具以外，干预风险溢价是更 值得关注的政策选择，央行的结构性工具目前已经在稳定资本市场上有所尝试。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。 从1971年1月到现在，美国股债汇同时出现明显下跌[1]的月份只有6个，如果4月美股、美债、美元不再大幅变化，2025年的4月将是1971年以来第7 个单月美国股债汇都出现明显下跌的月份。一般来说，美股下跌、美债上涨、美元上涨是投资者更适应的资产变化组合。但如果美国面临的是"滞胀"风 险，同时其他经济可以凭借"非美国"的力量支撑基本面，那么就有可能出现美国股债汇三杀的局面。2022年12月的美国股债汇三杀可以帮助我们理解这一 轮调整的逻辑。 与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是 ...

Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.31%, the ChiNext Index by 0.64%, while large-cap value stocks rose by 2.62% and large-cap growth stocks fell by 0.24% [1] - The banking and real estate sectors performed well, while defense, military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, has reached historical extremes, with values exceeding 4% on multiple occasions since 2016 [1] - As of April 18, 2025, the risk premium stood at 4.05%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.74% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 18, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's TTM PE percentile is at 47%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 60% and 45% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is relatively undervalued at close to 9% [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 24.3 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1,076.1 billion yuan across the two markets [3] AI and Data Analysis - The use of convolutional neural networks to model price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors such as banking and securities as of April 18, 2025 [2][8]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.31%，创业板指跌0.64%，大盘价值涨2.62%，大盘成长跌0.24%，上证50涨1.45%，国证2000代表的小盘涨0.05%，银行、 房地产市场表现靠前，国防军工、农林牧渔表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/18指标4.05%，两倍标准差边界为4.74%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/18，中证全指PETTM分位数47%，上证50与沪深300分别为60%、45%， ...