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九个月36次破纪录!金价逼近3800美元,美联储与亚洲需求共推牛市
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 06:13
2025 年刚过九个月,黄金已创下至少 36 次历史新高,相当于每月有超 4 天在刷新纪录。截至 9 月 26 日,现货金价报 3749.07 美元 / 盎司,年内涨幅超 40%,摩根大通更预测 2026 年中金价将突破 4150 美元。这波凌厉涨势的背后,是货币政策、区域需求与地缘风险的三重共振。 亚洲需求的爆发构成核心支撑。世界黄金协会数据显示,今年二季度全球金条与金币需求达 307 吨,其中中国以 115 吨领跑,同比激增 44%,而美国仅 9 吨。中国央行更连续 10 个月增持黄金,并通过上海黄金交易所吸引外国央行托管储备金,已有东南亚国家表达兴趣。这种需求力量正冲击伦敦、纽约主导 的传统格局,为金价提供持续性支撑。 地缘与金融风险则成为重要催化剂。中东冲突扩散、俄乌谈判僵局等事件持续发酵,叠加特朗普政府对美联储的政治施压,市场避险情绪升温。同时,全球 金融体系对美资产曝险率高达 90% 的集中风险,促使资金转向黄金分散配置,新加坡主权基金 CEO 林昭杰早预警此类风险隐患。 不过风险仍需警惕:若通胀反弹迫使美联储暂停降息,或市场风险偏好回升分流资金,金价可能承压。但当前就业疲软与地缘动荡未改,叠加全 ...
黄金股票ETF(517400)涨超1.6%,机构:金价中枢或升至4200美元/盎司
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 02:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and increased demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedges [1] - The deterioration of U.S. non-farm employment has led to a rapid increase in market expectations for Fed rate cuts, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year from a neutral interest rate perspective [1] - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as concerns about long-term debt supply and inflation resilience grow, alongside increasing U.S. debt and deficits [1] Group 2 - Speculative funds entering the market are a significant driver of gold prices, with recent shifts in speculative positions turning from a drag to a boost, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry chain [1] - The index focuses on small to mid-cap stocks with significant leading effects, emphasizing high-quality enterprises within the gold industry chain, characterized by high industry concentration and comprehensive coverage of the industry chain [1]
【财经分析】金价飙升下,黄金矿企还能否讲好新的增长故事?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 01:29
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached historical highs, with spot gold nearing $3800 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing the same level, leading to significant performance increases for gold mining companies, although there are notable disparities in profit growth among them [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Gold Mining Companies - In the first half of 2025, international gold prices rose over 20%, resulting in widespread profit increases among A-share gold mining companies [2]. - Shandong Gold reported a 102.98% year-on-year increase in net profit, exceeding 56.7 billion yuan in revenue [2]. - Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of 23.292 billion yuan, a 54.41% increase, driven by both gold and copper [2]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold, despite a strong performance with a net profit of 1.107 billion yuan (up 55.79%), faced concerns regarding production declines [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Cost Increases - Some companies have successfully expanded overseas and increased production, while others, like Chifeng Jilong Gold, are experiencing production declines [2]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold's gold production fell by 10.56% year-on-year to 6.75 tons, completing only 42% of its annual production guidance due to lower ore grades and adverse weather conditions [2][3]. - The unit cost of gold production for Chifeng Jilong Gold rose significantly, with operating costs increasing by 11.88% to 319.06 yuan per gram and total costs up 34.28% to 355.41 yuan per gram [3]. Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - Analysts predict further potential increases in gold prices, with estimates suggesting it could reach $3900 per ounce by mid-2026 [4]. - Companies are focusing on resource expansion and capacity growth as key strategies to transition from benefiting solely from price increases to achieving sustainable internal growth [4]. - Shandong Gold completed 293,000 meters of exploration, adding 18.8 tons of gold resources, while Chifeng Jilong Gold reported a significant discovery of a large-scale gold-copper deposit [4]. Group 4: Capital Operations and Resource Recovery - Companies are also looking towards capital operations, with Zijin Mining planning to list its subsidiary on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. - Tailings recovery is emerging as a new profit source, with Zhaojin Mining reporting significant contributions from tailings recovery at its Fiji mine, producing 101.78 kilograms of gold from tailings, a 42.53% increase year-on-year [6].
金价狂飙突破3800美元!美联储降息只是开始,华尔街已看到5000美元
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-25 01:19
历史,总是在万众瞩目中被改写。 当地时间9月23日,国际金价如同脱缰的野马,COMEX黄金期货价格一度冲高至3824.60美元/盎司,正 式宣告突破3800美元大关,再度刷新历史纪录。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的讲话中,将此次降息定义为一次"风险管理"。他明确指出,促使美联储采取 行动的关键原因,是"就业市场面临的下行风险有所升高"。尽管通胀依然高于2%的目标,但劳动力市 场的疲软迹象,让美联储的天平开始向支持就业倾斜。 降息为何对黄金是重大利好?因为黄金作为不生息资产,其最大的"敌人"就是高利率。当美联储降息, 尤其是进入降息周期时,持有黄金的机会成本(即放弃持有生息资产如国债的收益)显著降低。此外, 降息通常会导致美元走软,而以美元计价的黄金对于持有其他货币的投资者来说会变得更便宜,从而刺 激需求。 更重要的是,市场对未来还有更多期待。根据美联储公布的"点阵图",略多于半数的官员预计今年至少 还会有两次降息,意味着10月和12月可能连续动作。这种对持续宽松货币政策的强烈预期,为金价提供 了源源不断的上行动力。 三、深层逻辑:从"央行购金"到"投资者狂欢" 如果说降息是点燃黄金行情的火花,那么更深层次的燃料, ...
金条降价,黄金跌价,25年9月23日,各大银行黄金金条最新价格
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 08:40
Group 1 - On September 23, 2025, gold prices varied slightly among major brands, with all brands' gold jewelry purity reaching 99.9% [1] - Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry priced their gold products at 1085 yuan per gram, while Chow Sang Sang set a slightly higher price at 1090 yuan per gram [1][4] - Other brands like King Fook and Xie Rui Lin also priced their gold at 1085 yuan per gram, maintaining consistency with Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry [1] Group 2 - Various gold shops displayed a wide range of gold prices on the same day, indicating a competitive market [2] - The lowest gold price was offered by Zhou Liufu at 1044 yuan per gram, while Cai Bai priced their gold at 1045 yuan per gram [7][8] - The highest gold price among the listed brands was set by Chow Sang Sang at 1090 yuan per gram [4] Group 3 - Financial institutions offered more stable gold bar prices compared to the fluctuating gold jewelry market, providing an alternative asset allocation for investors [16] - The price of gold bars from major banks ranged from 831 yuan per gram at the Shanghai Gold Exchange to 869 yuan per gram at China Gold [22][23] - Agricultural Bank's "Chuan Shi Zhi Bao Gold Bar" was priced at 864.27 yuan per gram, which was slightly higher than other state-owned banks [19] Group 4 - In the T D (deferred delivery trading) market, gold and silver showed more active price movements, with gold prices experiencing significant fluctuations [28] - The latest transaction price for Au T D gold was 834.57 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 9.37 yuan, reflecting a 1.14% rise [28] - Silver prices surged dramatically, with Ag T D silver reaching 101731 yuan per kilogram, marking a substantial daily increase of 2712.74 yuan [28] Group 5 - Recent international gold prices have been notably strong, reaching a historical high of 3707.40 USD per ounce following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [31] - Despite a slight pullback, gold prices remained robust, closing at 3684.93 USD per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 1.15% over five consecutive weeks [31] - The current bull market in gold is characterized by a nearly 40% increase in price since the beginning of the year, a remarkable performance compared to historical trends [33]
黄金价格又破纪录了!银行疯狂买金,到底是机会还是陷阱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 23:35
2025年9月23日,纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)黄金期货市场见证了历史性的一刻。12月交割的黄金期货价格飙升69.30美元,涨幅高达1.9%,最终收 盘价定格在每盎司3775.10美元,不仅创下了当日的最高纪录,更是刷新了黄金期货的历史收盘价纪录。这已是2025年内黄金价格第36次冲破历史新 高,显示出其强劲的上涨势头。 与1980年黄金价格的抛物线式飙升及其随后的暴跌形成鲜明对比的是,本轮黄金上涨行情呈现出更为温和和可持续的特点,波动性显著降低。期权市 场的关键指标并未显示出非理性的狂热行为。风险管理专家Brett Friedman指出,如果市场泡沫正在形成,通常会伴随隐含波动率因不确定性加剧和价 格狂热波动而急剧上升。然而,目前价外期权相对于平价期权的价差并未出现显著扩大,OptionMetrics的数据也显示该指标处于正常水平,这表明投 资者情绪尚未达到狂热的程度。Teucrium的董事总经理兼高级投资组合专家Jake Hanley通过分析黄金价格图表,认为其展现了"经典突破行为",包括 长期的盘整、清晰的阻力位突破、看涨的趋势排列以及伴随强劲阳线和持续性的决定性上涨。 尽管整体市场情绪乐观,但部分迹 ...
黄金向3800挺进,最可能终结牛市的力量或来自美国
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-23 15:25
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 伦敦金融城有句关于黄金的说法,大意是"投资组合中配置5%(或当时流行的比例)的黄金,同时祈祷 它别涨"。 可如今,黄金偏在一路上涨。目前金价已逼近每盎司3800美元,且这并非仅以美元计价时的特例,以英 镑计价的黄金也创下新高,接近每盎司2800英镑。 此外,即便以全球公认的"硬通货"之一——瑞郎计价,黄金表现也十分强劲。瑞郎通常被视为避险货 币,相比普通法定货币,其贬值风险更低。然而,今年以来,以瑞郎计价的黄金涨幅已超25%(以英镑 计价涨33%,以美元计价涨44%)。 这种涨势会持续吗?正如那句老话暗示的,这是否值得担忧?让我们回顾历史,看看过去的周期能否带 来启示。 黄金历史牛熊周期复盘 在现代人的记忆中,黄金最惨淡的时期是2000年科技泡沫破裂之前。1980年(一轮高通胀周期尾声)黄 金触及峰值,到1999年跌至谷底,这19年间,全球(大体而言)处于"无通胀增长"阶段——即便经济增 长强劲,利率仍在下行。 随后,中国崛起与西方过度杠杆化推动市场走向2008年金融危机。黄金涨势一直持续到2011年,部分原 因是其避险属性,另一部分则得益于中国急速发 ...
降息预期如火如荼 金价站上历史新高度
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-23 06:10
上周美联储降息25个基点,开启了自去年12月以来的新一轮宽松周期,这本身就是一个强烈的信号。然而,市场真正的 兴奋点在于"未来还有更多"。 美联储内部的"鸽派"呐喊尤为引人注目。美联储理事米兰(Stephen Miran)公开主张联储应"积极降息",甚至在上周的 会议上投下反对票,认为应一次性降息50个基点。他的逻辑在于,当前移民、税收和监管政策的变化可能已经压低了美 国的潜在利率水平,使得现有货币政策"限制性处于较高区域"。 周二(9月23日)亚洲时段,现货黄金目前交投于3746一线下方,截至发稿,现货黄金暂报3743.57美元/盎司,下跌 0.07%,最高触及3758.97美元/盎司,最低下探3736.59美元/盎司。虽然美元指数并未跌破区间支撑,但黄金受益于地缘 局势的紧张情绪,在避险情绪的推动之下继续走强,且价格创历史新高之后带动多头情绪升温,叠加美联储年内降息预 期依然存在,短期维持多头运行。 9月22日,COMEX黄金继续大幅探涨,报收3781.1美元/盎司,涨幅2.03%。国内SHFE金夜盘维持上涨态势,报收850.98 元/克,涨幅1.46%。 美元走软的直接助攻随之而来。美元指数周一下跌0. ...
天时地利人和!分析师高呼:黄金还没泡沫,大牛市没走完!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-23 04:02
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 黄金可能正显示出泡沫形成的迹象,其周一价格创下了今年以来的第36个历史新高,并在周二持续刷新 这一记录。然而,并非所有分析师都相信这一贵金属的涨势已经过度。 Winhall Risk Analytics/OptionMetrics的撰稿人Brett Friedman在最近的一份报告中写道,黄金自2023年中 期以来一直在上涨,并自那时起持续创下历史新高。他说,这是因为许多人将黄金视为"在完美时机的 完美投资",它在围绕通胀、货币贬值、债务、冲突和社会经济焦虑的恐惧和不确定性中茁壮成长。 他指出,黄金期权并未表明泡沫正在形成。如果泡沫正在形成,隐含波动率将会上升,反映出不确定性 的加剧和疯狂的价格行为,并且虚值期权相对于平价期权会变得更贵。 虚值期权没有内在价值,例如,一份看涨期权赋予持有者在特定时间以特定行权价购买标的资产的权 利,但如果行权价高于市场价,那它就是虚值的。平价期权的行权价则处于或接近当前价格。 周一,12月交割的黄金在Comex市场上攀升69.30美元,收于每盎司3775.10美元,这是最活跃的黄金合 约有记录以来的最高收盘价。据道琼斯 ...
特斯拉、苹果、阿里、百度集体拉升,减肥药企暴涨超60%,金价创新高
Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.05%, Nasdaq up 0.31%, and S&P 500 up 0.18% as of September 22 [1] - Tesla's stock rose nearly 3.6% after several institutions raised their target price, with Baird upgrading its rating to "outperform" and predicting a price of $3000 by 2035 [1] - Alibaba's stock increased by nearly 1%, supported by a Citi analyst report highlighting a new in-store group buying promotion coinciding with the travel peak season [1] - Apple's stock surged over 3%, reaching an 8-month high, with Wedbush Securities setting the highest target price on Wall Street at $310 [1] - Baidu's stock saw a rise of over 4% after the launch of its new visual understanding model, Qianfan-VL, which is aimed at enterprise-level multimodal applications [1] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Metsera, a developer of anti-obesity drugs, saw its stock rise over 60% amid reports that Pfizer is nearing a deal to acquire the company for up to $7.3 billion [3] - Pfizer plans to purchase Metsera at $47.50 per share in cash, with potential additional payments based on performance milestones [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to increased expectations of further cuts, which has been a major driver for the US stock market reaching new highs [5][6] - Concerns are rising regarding the US long-term treasury market and potential budget battles in Congress, which could impact market confidence [5][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including core PCE and non-farm payroll reports, are expected to influence market sentiment, with predictions leaning towards weaker outcomes [6]