简评：整体而言，虽然关税的负面影响有所体现，但与此前大幅走弱的5月ADP就业人数相比，非农数 据指向美国就业仍稳健，市场对美国衰退担忧降温，对美联储降息预期延后至9月份。往后看，对等关 税"暂停期"满后，实质的关税落地规模及其对美国经济的影响或将是后续美联储货币节奏的判断关键。 6月7日，据中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至2025年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32852.55亿美元， 较上月的32816.62亿美元增加35.93亿美元，升幅为0.11%。5月末黄金储备为7383万盎司，较4月末的 7377万盎司增加6万盎司，自2024年11月以来连续第7个月增持。 【博时市场点评6月9日】两市放量上涨，医药涨幅领先 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数上涨，医药板块领涨，两市成交放量，再度站上1.3万亿。海外方面近期主要围绕美 国的就业数据等进行交易，5月ADP就业人数、ISM非制造业PMI表现较弱，周五非农数据略超市场预 期，又一定程度打消市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，当前市场预期美联储9月开始降息，今年降息两次。 在中美经贸关系方面，上周中美领导人通电话之后，今日将在伦敦进行第二轮中美贸易谈判，此次谈判 美方增加了商务部 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade maintained resilience amid external pressures, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] Trade Performance - Exports reached 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports totaled 7.27 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8% [1] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [2] - Trade with the EU increased by 2.9% to 2.3 trillion yuan, with a notable 9.39% growth in May [2] US-China Trade Relations - The US agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, while China reciprocated by suspending some tariffs, which is expected to positively impact trade dynamics [2][3] - In May, trade with the US totaled $285.51 billion, with a month-on-month decline of 12.67%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to April [3] Trade with Other Regions - Trade with Africa showed significant growth, reaching 963.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [4] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 9.24 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2% [5] Export Products - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 60% of total exports, with a value of 6.4 trillion yuan, growing by 9.3% [7] - Automobile exports increased by 16.8%, with 2.853 million units exported in the first five months [7] Future Outlook - June exports are expected to continue growing due to the "rush to export" effect related to US trade policies [7] - Macro policies are anticipated to support economic stability and foreign trade, with potential financial support for struggling export companies [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade maintained resilience amid external pressures, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] Trade Performance - Exports reached 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports totaled 7.27 trillion yuan, declining by 3.8% [1] - In May, the trade continued to grow, with imports and exports increasing by 2.7% and 6.3% year-on-year, respectively, despite having two fewer working days compared to the previous year [1] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [3] - Trade with the EU reached 2.3 trillion yuan, growing by 2.9%, with a notable 9.39% increase in May alone [3] - The U.S. trade saw a total value of 285.51 billion USD in May, with a month-on-month decline of 12.67%, although the decline was less severe than in April [4] Impact of U.S.-China Trade Talks - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations led to a commitment from the U.S. to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to positively impact trade dynamics [4] - Experts suggest that the phased adjustment of tariffs could stimulate demand and encourage replenishment in the market [4] Trade with Other Regions - Trade with Africa showed significant growth, with a total value of 963.21 billion yuan, marking a 12.4% increase, and exports growing by 20.2% [6] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 9.24 trillion yuan, growing by 4.2% [7] Export Products - In the first five months, exports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 6.4 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports [9] - Automotive exports accelerated, with 2.853 million vehicles exported, reflecting a 16.8% year-on-year growth [9] Future Outlook - June is expected to see continued growth in exports, driven by the "rush to export" effect related to U.S. trade policies and active market expansion by foreign trade enterprises [10] - The macroeconomic policies are anticipated to remain supportive, with potential financial measures aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [10]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 萧达 环球时报记者 陈子帅 王逸】中国外交部发言人7日宣布，应英国政府 邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中 美经贸磋商机制首次会议。美国总统特朗普当地时间6日也在社交媒体上发文称，美国财政部长贝森 特、商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔将于9日与中方代表在伦敦举行会谈。这是美中关税战爆发以 来，双方举行的第二场经贸磋商。中美5月12日在日内瓦会谈达成共识后，中方严肃认真执行了协议， 美方却针对中国芯片产品等实施进一步限制的消极措施。多名中国专家8日接受《环球时报》记者采访 时表示，此次磋商是中美两国元首日前通话直接推动的，表明双方均希望通过持续对话和深入磋商，找 到化解彼此关系中障碍的有效途径。对于美方大肆炒作中方稀土出口管制，却绝口不提美方对华极端打 压措施，这些专家强调，中美经贸谈判必须秉持平等态度，尊重各自关切，只有这样，才能争取双赢结 果。 " 全球市场高度关注 " 据新加坡《联合早报》8日报道，中美领导人6月5日通话不到两天，美国总统特朗普当地时间6日在社交 平台上率先宣布，美方经贸官员将于星期一（6月9日）在伦敦与 ...

Market Performance - US stock markets showed a steady upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.50% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.18% this week[10] - A-shares also experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.42%[10] - COMEX silver led global asset performance with a remarkable increase of 9.39%[10] Economic Developments - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, with an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%[2] - Major central banks initiated a wave of interest rate cuts, including a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank and a 100 basis point cut by the Russian Central Bank[2][21] - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity in the banking system[2] Commodity Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose approximately 4.3% due to geopolitical tensions and declining inventories[10] - Gold prices exhibited a volatile trend, influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and geopolitical risks[4][14] - Industrial demand and safe-haven buying drove silver prices significantly higher, with a notable increase in both COMEX and domestic markets[14] Currency Movements - The Chinese yuan appreciated slightly by 0.15% against the US dollar this week[11] - The US dollar index fell by 0.24%, reflecting weakened confidence in the US economy due to disappointing economic data[11][24] Risk Factors - Potential macroeconomic and industrial policy changes could lead to unexpected market shifts[28]

何立峰将访问英国并举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸 高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当地时间5月12日 上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话。 外交部发言人宣布：应英国政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首 次会议。 （文章来源：证券时报） 2025年4月以来，美国政府在此前单边加征关税的基础上，又对华加征所谓"对等关税"，中国进行了坚决正当反制。随后美方轮番升级关税措施，将对 华"对等关税"税率从第一轮的34%先后提升至84%和125%。美高额关税严重损害双边正常经贸往来，严重破坏国际经贸秩序。本次会谈达成了联合声明， 是双方通过平等对话协商解决分歧迈出的重要一步，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了条件。 双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边 ...

中美日内瓦经贸会谈之所以取得实质性成果，正是延续了互利共赢的逻辑。习近平主席在通话中指出， 双方要"用好已经建立的经贸磋商机制，秉持平等态度，尊重各自关切，争取双赢结果"。这为未来的经 贸磋商指明了方向和原则。中方言出必行，在日内瓦会谈后便积极采取措施，取消或暂停相关关税，展 现了维护对话成果的最大诚意。但正如习近平主席强调的，中方"同时也是有原则的"。这个原则，就是 坚决维护国家的核心利益和人民的根本利益，坚决维护国际公平正义和多边贸易体制。在涉及国家主权 和尊严的问题上，中方绝不会有任何妥协退让。对美方而言，当务之急则是"实事求是看待取得的进 展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措"。这不仅是兑现承诺的应有之义，更是推动务实合作的必要前提。 中美关系这艘巨轮行稳致远，还需要在更广阔的领域拓展积极议程，并妥善管理分歧。习近平主席在通 话中倡议，"双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流，增进共识、减少误解、加强合作"。这 为双边关系的发展开辟了更广阔的空间。同时，特朗普总统也表示，"美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习"。 此外，维护好中美关系的政治基础，是确保这艘大船不偏航、不触礁的根本前提，必须高度警惕并妥善 处理可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in a comparable way, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆★, the specific meaning of this symbol is not clear from the given content [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market maintains a volatile performance, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help weaken the negative impact of the trade war on the economy. The OPEC+ strategy of seizing market share through rapid production increases makes it difficult for the supply - demand tightness caused by seasonality and geopolitical factors to last [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively weak, and the supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] - The supply of asphalt lacks the resilience to increase, the demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] - The domestic LPG price is weak, but the downward space is limited due to the reduction of supply pressure. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC07 contract rose 0.52%. The result of the Sino - US presidential phone call was positive, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help the economy. The OPEC+ rapid production increase strategy makes the supply - demand tightness unsustainable, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, with low ship - bunkering and deep - processing demand. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by lower - than - expected temperatures. The supply from Russia to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons in May, and the OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] Asphalt - The discount of diluted asphalt in June is at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel, and it is estimated to be - $6 per barrel in July. The supply increase is restricted by poor refining and export profits. The demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] LPG - The domestic refinery price is weak. The domestic chemical demand has increased recently, and the international price is relatively stable. The supply pressure has been weakened, and the downward space is limited. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese bond market, particularly focusing on the impact of Sino-U.S. trade relations and various pressures on the market in June 2025 [1][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Short-term Pressures**: The bond market faces significant pressures from the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), the configuration of ultra-long-term special government bonds, and banks' need to realize profits at the end of the half-year. In June, the maturity of CDs exceeds 4 trillion yuan, creating substantial issuance pressure [1][4]. - **Mid-term Optimism**: There are positive mid-term factors, such as the expected reduction in the insurance product's preset interest rates and the anticipated resumption of government bond trading by the central bank, which may offset the weakening effects of reserve requirement ratio cuts [1][5][11]. - **Interest Rate Environment**: The interest rate environment in June is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%, with a potential peak around 1.8%. The most significant variable affecting this is the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: If ultra-long-term special government bonds continue to fail to attract bids, it could severely deteriorate market sentiment, reminiscent of the "wolf is coming" effect [1][7]. - **Banking Behavior**: Banks are likely to continue selling older bonds to realize profits throughout June, which may exert additional selling pressure on the bond market, especially given the poor earnings in the first quarter of the year [8][9]. Additional Important Content - **Demand for Long-term Bonds**: The insurance industry, with its long asset-liability structure, is expected to maintain a strong demand for long-term bonds, particularly as overall interest rates decline [10]. - **Central Bank Actions**: The central bank's resumption of government bond trading is confirmed, with expectations of improving market sentiment in June and July [11]. - **Currency Dynamics**: The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and reduced pressure on the RMB exchange rate are providing some support to the bond market [12]. - **Market Factors**: Short-term factors include negative interest rates on pure bonds and the need for banks to meet liquidity demands at the end of the half-year, while mid-term factors include the central bank's actions and the reduced depreciation space for the RMB [13]. - **Key Observations for CDs**: The issuance of CDs in June is critical; if the primary issuance does not reach 3 trillion yuan by mid-June, there will be significant redemption pressure, potentially pushing rates up to 1.8% [14][19]. - **Investment Recommendations**: It is advised to consider purchasing ultra-long-term government bonds in mid to late June, as market sentiment is expected to be high, presenting a favorable trading window [2][15][16]. Overall Market Expectations - The overall expectation for the bond market in 2025 is cautious optimism, with potential for new lows in the third quarter and improved conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by previous net purchases of government bonds by the central bank [17].