美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)、英国天空新闻网、彭博社等多家媒体关注到，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸 会谈联合声明》，联合声明中达成多项积极共识，提振了全球市场。 路透社援引高级分析师的话称，这对两国经济及全球经济来说，都是非常积极的消息，并使投资者在短 期内大大减少了对全球供应链受损的担忧，为市场增加更多确定性。 路透社指出，中国和美国以积极的态度结束了日内瓦贸易谈判。新加坡《联合早报》、美国《华尔街日 报》报道称，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具 有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制。美国财政部长贝 森特也表示，会谈已取得实质性进展，"富有成效"。 中新网5月13日电 5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。会谈达成一系列重要共 识，取得实质性进展。5月12日，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。国际舆论广泛关注本次 会谈，外媒纷纷指出，这提振了全球市场，是朝着正确方向迈出的巨大积极的一步。 据彭博社报道，彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员马丁·乔泽帕认为，双方有关"取得实质性进展"的表 态令人鼓舞，与中国达成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the joint statement on China-US economic and trade high - level talks, along with favorable policies from the State Council Information Office, and the positive outcome of the China - US tariff negotiation, are short - term positive factors for the stock market. With the current low valuation levels of major Chinese indices, there is a high cost - effectiveness for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market. It is expected that the stock index will break through upwards, so futures should be treated as bullish, and a wide - straddle buying option strategy can be used for stock index options to capture the trend after the direction is chosen [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3885.00, 3853.00, 3786.60, and 3749.60 respectively, with increases of 45.80, 47.00, 45.00, and 44.40. The trading volumes were 31355.00, 61843.00, 13346.00, and 3543.00, and the open interest increased by 2092.00, 14106.00, 2998.00, and 1453.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 300 index were 1.19, 1.23, 1.20, and 1.20 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2703.80, 2686.60, 2653.20, and 2649.00, with increases of 20.00, 20.40, 21.20, and 22.20. The trading volumes were 13936.00, 31684.00, 5559.00, and 1311.00, and the open interest increased by 854.00, 7500.00, 1600.00, and 520.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the SSE 50 index were 0.75, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.85 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5786.00, 5688.00, 5524.60, and 5417.80, with increases of 81.20, 82.80, 69.60, and 68.20. The trading volumes were 25583.00, 52449.00, 12705.00, and 5584.00. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 2319.00, while the others increased by 2505.00, 1668.00, and 1743.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 500 index were 1.42, 1.48, 1.28, and 1.27 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 6151.60, 6037.00, 5843.40, and 5702.20, with increases of 94.00, 93.00, 84.60, and 82.20. The trading volumes were 40716.00, 134023.00, 29274.00, and 8380.00. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 6527.00, while the others increased by 5031.00, 2040.00, and 1059.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads of the CSI 1000 index were 1.55, 1.56, 1.47, and 1.46 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 32.00, - 17.20, - 98.00, and - 114.60 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 31.60, - 17.40, - 97.60, and - 111.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 3846.16, 2684.01, 5793.67, and 6082.08, with price - to - price spreads of - 0.17, 0.17, 1.26, and - 1.23 respectively. The trading volumes (in billion lots) were 119.39, 32.78, 135.82, and 189.22, and the total trading amounts (in billion yuan) were 2166.98, 603.26, 1994.27, and 2428.10 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the price - to - price spreads of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities were 0.32%, - 0.45%, - 0.17%, 0.06%, 0.27%, 0.18%, 0.37%, - 1.80%, - 0.93%, and 0.59% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 5.61, - 37.61, - 104.01, and - 141.01, compared to the previous two - day values of - 5.96, - 37.56, - 102.56, and - 139.36 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were - 0.51, - 14.71, - 47.91, and - 51.91, compared to the previous two - day values of - 5.90, - 24.30, - 56.70, and - 59.70 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were - 19.32, - 116.92, - 265.92, and - 370.92, compared to the previous two - day values of - 21.81, - 113.81, - 258.61, and - 361.01 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 25.88, - 136.88, - 322.48, and - 461.28, compared to the previous two - day values of - 30.48, - 139.28, - 328.08, and - 465.88 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3342.00, 10126.83, 6294.71, and 2011.77, with price - to - price spreads of - 0.30%, - 0.69%, - 0.62%, and - 0.87% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 22867.74, 37503.33, 5659.91, and 23499.32, with price - to - price spreads of 0.40%, 1.56%, - 0.07%, and 0.63% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - China - US economic and trade high - level talks released a joint statement. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides will suspend the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and relevant counter - measures. A mechanism will be established for further consultations [2] - The Xinhua News Agency published a commentary, stating that rational expectations should be held for the China - US economic and trade talks, and the long - term, complex, and arduous nature of eliminating differences should be recognized [2] - The Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, indicating that the Ministry of Commerce will coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles to support foreign - trade enterprises [2] - The State Council Information Office released the first white paper on "China's National Security in the New Era" [2] 3.6 Industry Information - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million, with year - on - year increases of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. Automobile exports were 517,000, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time [2] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications have exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for over 53% [2] - Ping An Trust plans to lower the threshold of insurance - trust products to below 1 million yuan, which would be the first in the trust industry [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric power equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in significant tariff reductions, which are expected to positively impact the electric new energy sector's exports to the US. Key affected areas include the power battery supply chain, photovoltaic inverters, energy storage batteries, AIDC equipment, grid equipment, consumer lithium batteries, and wind power components. These sectors are anticipated to experience a recovery and acceleration in shipments to the US starting from May [4][5][6]. - The agreement reached during the talks includes the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with a 90-day suspension on 24% of these tariffs. Similarly, China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods and suspend 24% of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Tariff Changes**: The US will cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will cancel 91% of retaliatory tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [3][6]. - **Market Impact**: The agreement is expected to benefit companies in the electric new energy sector, particularly those involved in the power battery and energy storage battery supply chains, such as Ningde Times, Keda Li, and Xinjubang. Other companies to watch include Sunshine Power, Shenghong Co., and Megmeet [4][7]. - **Market Demand**: The US accounts for 10-15% of global power battery market demand, 30-40% of large energy storage market demand, and 10% of the global photovoltaic market demand. The successful conclusion of the trade talks is expected to enhance the short-term and long-term development prospects for various sectors [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks is the significant reduction of tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs imposed on China and suspending 24% for 90 days, resulting in a current tariff level of 10% [3] - The statement indicates that both sides have agreed to establish a mechanism for ongoing dialogue regarding economic and trade relations, aiming to resolve differences and enhance cooperation [5][9] - The market reacted positively to the announcement, with significant increases in stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, indicating global optimism about the improvement in China-US relations and trade [5][9] Group 2 - The United Nations welcomed the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, viewing them as a positive signal for the world economy [7][8] - The European Union expressed support for the consensus reached in the talks, emphasizing the importance of reducing trade barriers and ensuring the stability of global supply chains [8] - The Director-General of the World Trade Organization highlighted the significance of the talks, stating that the progress made is crucial not only for the US and China but also for other regions, especially vulnerable economies [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡下跌，其中 30 年期国债期货跌幅居前。消息面，中美双方发布日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方各下降了 91%的税率，暂停了 24%的税率，观察期为 90 天，标志着两国经 贸关系进入阶段性缓和，国债的避险需求快速回落，风险资产的风险偏好快速回升。从中长期的角度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The release of the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade high-level talks has significantly improved the market sentiment. The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, and many sectors are expected to benefit. The market risk preference has increased, but there are still uncertainties in the future, and investors need to remain cautious [7][18]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks jointly released a statement, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals for export and will organize a series of actions. The export control of strategic minerals is crucial for national security and development [6]. - The Minister of Commerce hosted a round - table meeting with foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will work with relevant departments to help foreign trade enterprises solve difficulties and promote the stable development of foreign trade [6]. - On May 12, the A - share market rose strongly, with over 4100 stocks rising. The macro - economic situation has improved, and the market is optimistic about the export and technology sectors [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications have exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 53% [7]. - The Bank of China and other departments have issued the "30 Financial Measures for Nansha, Guangzhou" to strengthen financial support for Nansha's construction [8]. - The acquisition of autumn grain in 2024 has been completed, with a cumulative acquisition of 345 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years [8] Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is relatively stable, and the market has entered the stage of speculation on planting area. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Oils and Fats: The external market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The Brazilian new - crop season has a good start, but the domestic consumption is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 5860 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The fundamentals are mixed. It is recommended to go long on dips near the support level of 2350 yuan/ton [11]. - Hogs: The spot price is stable with a weak trend. The futures market is mainly for intraday trading, and beware of basis repair [11][13]. - Eggs: The spot price is rising slightly, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The futures market follows the spot [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic spot price is strong. The market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities [13]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is narrowing, and the market sentiment is warming up. The 2509 contract rebounds [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient, and the spot price may still decline. Due to the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - coking market is stable for the time being [13]. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the China - US talks, copper and aluminum are boosted. Pay attention to the pressure at the previous gap [13][14]. - Alumina: The spot price is relatively strong, and the 2509 contract repairs the discount. Pay attention to the pressure at 2900 yuan/ton [14]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - news is positive, and the market demand is improving. The steel price is expected to continue to rebound [14]. - Ferroalloys: Due to the expansion of production cuts in Ningxia and the improvement of the macro - environment, the double - silicon market rebounds and fluctuates in a range [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions near the key pressure level of 64,500 yuan/ton [14][16]. Options and Finance - Stock Index: The trade tension is relieved, and the market may continue to rebound. Focus on the technology sector and pay attention to the opportunities of high - to - low switching between sectors [18][19]. - Options: The A - share market is strong, and the implied volatility of options rises. Trend investors should defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to go long on volatility [20].

Market Performance - US stock indices experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.35% to 18,708.34 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 3.26% to 5,844.19 points, and the Dow Jones up by 2.81% to 42,410.10 points [1][2] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw substantial increases, including Microsoft up 2.4%, Apple up 6.31%, Nvidia up 5.44%, Amazon up 8.07%, Meta up 7.92%, and Tesla up 6.75% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also performed well, with notable gains in companies such as Xpeng Motors up 7.73%, Li Auto up 6.57%, JD.com up 6.47%, Pinduoduo up 6.14%, NIO up 5.67%, Alibaba up 5.76%, and Baidu up 5.08% [2] US-China Trade Relations - The US and China announced a joint statement from the Geneva trade talks, committing to modify tariffs on each other's goods by May 14, 2025, including a 24% tariff suspension for 90 days and retaining a 10% tariff [3][4] China CNR Corporation - China CNR Corporation signed several major contracts totaling approximately 54.74 billion yuan, which represents about 22.2% of the company's projected revenue for 2024 [7] China Pharmaceutical Group - China Pharmaceutical Group plans to acquire 100% of Beijing Jinsui Technology for 302 million yuan, aiming to enhance its e-commerce operations in the healthcare sector [11] Yunnan Copper - Yunnan Copper is planning to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining and has suspended its stock trading as of May 13 [12] Market Outlook - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities expect the A-share market to maintain a range-bound pattern, suggesting focus on dividend-paying sectors, technology narratives, and consumer sectors [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the recent US-China trade negotiations on various industries, particularly focusing on technology and military sectors, which are expected to see optimistic structural trends in the medium term [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Reductions**: The reduction in tariffs exceeded expectations, boosting market confidence. Short-term fluctuations are anticipated, but medium-term outlooks for technology and military sectors remain positive [1][2]. - **Export Growth**: The annual export growth is projected to be between -1.2% and -2%, an improvement from previous pessimistic forecasts of -4.1%. This indicates a narrowing drag on GDP from 0.5 percentage points to between -0.1 and -0.2 percentage points [1][4]. - **Impact on Consumer Goods**: New tariff policies will most significantly affect consumer goods, especially electronics. The US's high dependency on direct imports from China means that demand for certain products like furniture and footwear is expected to normalize following tariff reductions [1][5]. - **Intermediate Goods Dependency**: The US relies heavily on Chinese intermediate goods such as chemicals and plastics, which are expected to be most affected by tariff changes. The 90-day exemption period is likely to positively impact direct trade, potentially leading to a short-term export rebound [1][8][9]. - **Domestic Policy Continuity**: The outcomes of the negotiations will not significantly alter domestic policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and employment, as well as promoting technology consumption. Counter-cyclical policies will continue to be implemented [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The market reacted positively to the unexpected results of the trade negotiations, with expectations of a strong opening following the announcement. The structural optimism for technology and military sectors is highlighted [2][15]. - **Long-term Trade Relations**: The new trade policies reflect ongoing issues with US political credibility and suggest that further negotiations will be necessary to establish a stable economic relationship between the two countries [6]. - **Consumer Goods and Electronics**: Consumer goods account for 40% to 50% of total exports to the US, with electronics being particularly sensitive to tariff changes. The exemption for certain consumer electronics is noted, with a significant portion of imports still subject to tariffs [5][7]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The presence of the 90-day exemption period is expected to lead to improved export data in the coming months, with a strong likelihood of GDP growth exceeding 5% if current trends continue [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the US-China trade negotiations on various sectors and the overall economic outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since April 8 and suspending 24% of tariffs for 90 days, while China reciprocated with similar actions. This indicates a stabilizing economic relationship and highlights the resilience of Chinese manufacturing in the global supply chain [1][5][9]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The trade agreement is expected to lower constraints on Chinese exports to the US, reducing the risk of export decline and potentially increasing export elasticity in the short term [9]. - The agreement is likely to mitigate the risks of recession in the US and global economies caused by tariffs, thus stabilizing external demand and financial environments [9][10]. Group 2: Manufacturing Competitiveness - Chinese manufacturing has strengthened its global position, with a significant increase in both scale and efficiency since 2018. In 2021, China's manufacturing value added accounted for approximately 31% of the global total, far surpassing the US at 16% and Japan at 6% [7][8]. - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating a robust competitive edge in manufacturing [8]. Group 3: Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy aimed at expanding domestic demand remains unchanged despite tariff impacts. The focus is on optimizing the supply-demand relationship and enhancing consumption contributions to economic growth [12]. - The recent trade talks and resilient export data may provide a more extended window for policy adjustments, allowing for potential fine-tuning based on economic conditions [12]. Group 4: Asset Pricing and Market Impact - The progress in trade talks is expected to lead to upward revisions in nominal growth expectations, a decline in liquidity expectations, and an increase in risk appetite, which may drive interest rates higher [13]. - Equity assets are likely to benefit from improved fundamental expectations and the elimination of extreme scenarios, particularly in sectors sensitive to external demand and overall economic volume [13].

智通财经5月12日电，5月12日下午中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，将对此前加征的关税进行调整， 未来双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。从市场层面来看，4月初到现在，美国订单经历了从 暂停到不断回归的过程，很多美国客商宁愿涨价也要进口中国商品。 (央视财经) 美国订单不断回归 客户宁愿涨价也要买中国货 ...