再看伦铜，周三一度涨了2%，最终收涨1.25%，报11737美元/吨，其他基本金属也跟着走高。这背后其 实是投资者在等一个关键数据——周四要发布的通胀数据，这数据直接关系到美联储接下来的降息节 奏。芝加哥联储行长都放话了，预计2026年经济增长强劲，要是真这样，利率还有进一步下降的空间。 对于铜这种工业金属来说，美联储的货币政策、全球经济复苏节奏，都是影响需求的核心因素，大家盯 着数据就对了。 最亮眼的还要数贵金属，金价涨到了4344美元/盎司，眼看就要碰纪录高位，白银更是涨了4.42%，铂金 都冲到2008年以来的最高水平了。这波上涨还是离不开避险情绪的推动，一方面是委内瑞拉的局势越来 越紧张，美国不仅封锁还威胁地面打击，另一方面大家也在盯着美国的通胀数据，想从中判断美联储的 政策方向。黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种不确定性高的环境下，自然成了不少投资者的"定心丸"。 聊到这，肯定有朋友问，帮主，中长线该怎么布局？别急，这就给大家上干货策略。首先，油价方面， 短期地缘风险会带来波动，但中长期还是要回归供需基本面，咱们可以关注后续制裁落地情况和全球需 求复苏的节奏，逢低布局相关优质标的，别追高；其次是铜等基本金 ...

周三美股全线下挫，甲骨文数据中心投资消息引发科技巨头的抛售潮，道指和标普500指数连续四个交 易日走低。 截至收盘，道指跌228.29点，跌幅0.47%，报47885.97点，失守48000点关口，纳指跌1.81%，报22693.32 点，标普500指数跌1.16%，报6721.43点。科技、通信服务和工业板块领跌大盘，能源板块则逆势领 涨。衡量市场波动性的恐慌指数VIX飙升6.9%，报17.62。 明星科技股普跌，英伟达跌3.8%，微软跌0.1%，亚马逊跌0.6%，苹果跌1.0%，Meta跌1.2%，谷歌跌 3.1%，特斯拉跌4.6%。 避险情绪推动贵金属上扬。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货涨1.00%，报4347.50美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货涨5.64%，报66.237美元/盎司，联袂创历史收盘新高。 来源：第一财经 【道指标普四连阴！#美股科技巨头抛售潮再起#，#黄金白银创新高##】*三大股指齐挫，道指和标普 500指数四连阴； *中长期美债收益率上扬，10年期美债报4.15%； *纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近0.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a significant rally towards the end of the year, with platinum now joining the surge following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1][4]. Price Performance Summary - As of December 17, silver leads the precious metals sector with a 128% increase year-to-date, followed by platinum with a 113% rise [4]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures reached a new high, with prices hitting 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second instance of a price limit increase since its listing [4]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1933 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 113%, second only to silver's 127% [6]. Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - The recent surge in platinum prices is attributed to three main factors: tightening supply, awakening investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [7]. - The first phase of platinum's price increase occurred from May to July due to extreme weather, aging mines, and power restrictions in South Africa, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production [6]. - The second phase, from late August to mid-October, was driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which heightened market risk aversion and boosted platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. Future Market Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons by 2025, despite a projected 4% decline in total demand to 244.8 tons [9]. - Factors contributing to this shortage include structural supply constraints and increased demand from the Chinese market for physical platinum [9]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, alongside European regulatory changes that may support automotive demand for platinum [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from TD Securities predict that while there may be concerns about reduced demand for automotive catalysts, strong growth in North American automotive demand could lead to significant fluctuations in platinum and palladium demand [11]. - The potential for tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. is considered higher than for silver, which could lead to market dynamics similar to the recent silver squeeze [11]. - In contrast, Heraeus Group expresses caution, suggesting that after significant price increases, precious metals may need to undergo a period of consolidation, with industrial demand and recession risks posing downward pressure on platinum prices [12].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts globally are driving an increase in risk aversion, leading to sustained gold purchases by the People's Bank of China, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, providing support for gold prices [2] - Companies to watch in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] Group 2: Energy Metals - There is frequent news of production cuts in the overseas supply chain, indicating that the entire industry may continue to see signals of production reductions or shutdowns [3] - In the lithium carbonate sector, a deep capacity integration is beginning, with lithium prices showing signs of recovery after hitting a bottom [3] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [3] Group 3: Copper and Aluminum - The raw material shortage is making it easier for copper prices to rise while making it difficult for them to fall, with a recommendation to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [3] - In the aluminum sector, supply restrictions on electrolytic aluminum and increased demand from the new energy sector are expected to continue, while profits may recover as alumina production capacity is gradually released starting in 2025 [3] - Suggested companies in the aluminum sector include Shenhuo Group, Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [3] Group 4: Tungsten - China is tightening tungsten supply, leading to a continued upward trend in the market [4] - Relevant companies in the tungsten sector include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the global currency and bond markets is on the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently at 154.858, down 0.22% for the day, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the policy decision [1] - The USD/JPY has shown a clear downward trend, recently breaking below the key psychological level of 155.00, influenced by both fundamental and technical factors [2] - Key resistance levels for USD/JPY are at 155.438 (Bollinger Band middle line) and 156.263 (Bollinger Band upper line), while support levels are at 154.613 (Bollinger Band lower line) and 154.342 (recent low) [3] Group 2: Bond Market - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is currently at 1.951%, having slightly decreased by 0.15% for the day, with a previous high of 1.976% [1] - The 10-year bond yield is exhibiting a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance levels at 1.976 (previous high) and 1.991 (Bollinger Band upper line), and support levels at 1.941 (Bollinger Band middle line) and 1.891 (Bollinger Band lower line) [3] - The MACD indicator for the 10-year bond yield shows a DIFF value of 0.032 and a DEA value of 0.038, indicating a weak bullish trend with insufficient momentum [2]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月16日，本周全球金融市场的焦点集中在两大事件：乌克兰和谈取得突破性进展、以及美国将公布的 重磅经济数据（非农就业 + 通胀）。这两股力量共同推动黄金在高位急转直下，也让投资者在年末前 的最后关键交易周保持高度警惕。 首先，乌俄和谈传来意外利好。乌克兰总统泽连斯基与美国特使在柏林进行长达五小时的密集谈判，乌 方甚至主动提出暂缓加入北约的提议，被视为重要让步。美国方面随后表示"取得重大进展"，美国总统 特朗普也称"距离和平协议比以往任何时候更近"。欧洲多国领导人快速响应，强调将为乌克兰提供长期 安全与重建支持。这些信号迅速压低避险情绪，使金价从逼近 4350 美元的七周高位迅速回落，周一最 终仅小涨约 0.1%，在 4300 美元附近震荡。 ▲ATFX图 不过，谈判仍存在较大不确定性，尤其是领土问题的敏感性仍未解决。泽连斯基强调，"目前没有理想 的和平方案"，美国希望快速推动停火，但乌克兰更在意"和平的质量"。这意味着地缘风险短期降温， 但中长期仍存在反复可能，为黄金提供下方支撑。 与此同时，市场迅速将目光转向美国即将公布的一系列关键经济数据。尤其是因政府停摆而延迟的 10 月与 ...

Market Overview - Geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, reducing safe-haven demand, leading to pressure on gold and oil prices [1][3] - U.S. stock markets traded cautiously ahead of key data releases, with a focus on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report [1][3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $4304.91 per ounce, with a daily increase of only 0.11%, significantly lower than the initial rise of over 1% [4] - The appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset diminished due to progress in U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, prompting some investors to take profits [5] - Other precious metals performed strongly, with silver, platinum, and palladium seeing significant gains, particularly palladium which rose nearly 5% due to supply gap expectations [6] Oil Market - U.S. crude oil closed at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08%, while Brent crude oil settled at $60.56 per barrel, down 0.92% [7] - Strong expectations of a global oil supply surplus by 2026 exerted primary pressure, compounded by the easing of geopolitical risk premiums following U.S.-Ukraine negotiation progress [8] - U.S. sanctions on Venezuela led to a sharp decline in its exports, somewhat cushioning the price drop [9] Stock Market - U.S. stock indices showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.16%, and Nasdaq down 0.59% [10] - Investors remained cautious ahead of critical data releases such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, while also assessing signals from Federal Reserve officials [11] - Notable individual stock movements included Tesla rising 3.5% due to news on autonomous taxi services, while iRobot plummeted 72.7% following bankruptcy protection filing [12] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.09%, with the dollar against the yen down 0.31% to 155.345 [13] - The Japanese yen strengthened on expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, providing ongoing support [13] Key News Highlights - U.S.-Ukraine negotiations reported as productive, with differing positions on territorial issues [14] - Federal Reserve signals from Governor Milan questioning the representativeness of current inflation data, hinting at overly restrictive policies [14] - The European Union announced sanctions against five individuals and four entities related to Russia's "shadow fleet" [14] Domestic News - China's National Energy Administration stated that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will exceed the 20% target by 2025 [14] - The first large-scale bio-methanol project in China has officially commenced production [14] Upcoming Focus - Key data releases today include U.S. November non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and retail sales month-on-month [15] - These data points are expected to significantly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, potentially increasing market volatility [15]

UNforex 12月16日讯 周二欧洲交易时段，国际金价出现明显回调。在俄乌局势释放阶段性缓和信号的 背景下，市场风险偏好短暂修复，避险溢价随之回落；与此同时，前期连续反弹后积累的多头获利盘集 中释放，进一步放大了回落幅度，推动XAU/USD跌破4300美元整数关口。整体来看，当前下行更多体 现为情绪与仓位再平衡，而非对中期宏观逻辑的系统性否定。 从驱动因素看，本轮金价回落的核心在于避险溢价的阶段性压缩。美国官员周一透露，与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基就结束俄乌冲突的相关安排已取得一定进展，尽管在领土归属及安全保障等关键议题上仍存分 歧，但市场已率先对"冲突降级"的可能性进行定价。在这一背景下，部分此前配置于黄金的避险资金选 择阶段性退出。叠加欧洲时段短线多头集中平仓，价格在4300美元附近出现技术性失守，波动幅度被进 一步放大。 尽管短线承压，但从政策维度观察，黄金所处的中期环境并未发生根本改变。美联储已于上周完成年内 第三次、也是阶段性最后一次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%—3.75%。纽约联储主席威 廉姆斯指出，随着就业风险上升、通胀压力回落，当前政策立场已为未来不确定性预留空间。不过，从 最新 ...

美乌在柏林举行两轮会谈，整体朝达成和平协议推进，美方称俄乌间约 90% 的问题已解决。经多方商 改的 "和平计划" 拆分为三部分推进，其中对乌安全保障文件取得重大进展，相关构想接近 "北约第五 条" 式机制，欧洲多国及欧盟承诺支持乌维持 80 万武装力量、组建欧洲主导的 "乌克兰多国部队"。战 后重建方面也在开展相关研究，但领土等关键议题分歧明显，泽连斯基称美方转达的俄方领土诉求不符 合乌利益，该问题最终决定权在乌。 各方表态释放不同信号，特朗普称当下距达成和平协议更近，美方准备必要时赴俄推进谈判，本周末将 开会推进剩余议题。俄罗斯强调和谈基石是乌永久放弃加入北约并达成具法律约束力文件，美方称俄方 或接受相关安全保障安排但俄方暂无回应。泽连斯基表示会谈虽复杂但有成效，会继续通过外交渠道努 力，称未来几天可能出现更多进展。 俄乌冲突问题的推进，有利于市场炒作避险情绪的退散，短时间内兑黄金有利空作用。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price differentiation with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][64]. - In the future, under the reshaping of the global trade pattern, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold due to triple - driven factors [1][64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **External Market (New York Gold and Silver)**: Since the beginning of the year, both New York gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern, hitting new highs. By December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 52.86%, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 101.40% [6]. - **Domestic Market (Shanghai Gold and Silver)**: The trends of Shanghai gold and silver were basically in line with the external market. By December 11, Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram, with a year - to - date increase of 52.39%, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of 88.75% [7]. - **Five Trading Stages in 2025**: From January to March, the trading logic was risk - aversion, with gold leading the rise. From April, the focus was on tariff policies, causing a price correction. From June to September, it was about the repair of the gold - silver ratio and the support of the industrial attribute, with silver rising significantly. From September to November, the main logic was the interest - rate cut expectation. From November onwards, it was the supply - demand relationship of silver, which further pushed up the silver price [9][10][12][13]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: It continued to rise at the beginning of the year, then soared in April due to tariff policies, and started to repair in June. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, with the domestic and foreign ratios gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Fundamentals**: - **GDP**: The release of the Q3 2025 GDP data was postponed. The Q2 2025 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%. The Atlanta Fed's model predicted a 3.9% growth rate for Q3 [19]. - **PMI**: The manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2%, indicating an accelerating contraction. The service PMI was 52.6%, showing continued expansion but with a downward trend in the average level over the past 12 months [20][22]. - **Inflation**: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. The 9 - month CPI and core CPI were in line with or lower than market expectations. Consumer inflation expectations showed a decline in the short - term and stability in the medium - and long - term [25][27][29]. - **Employment**: In September, non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000. However, subsequent data such as Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims eased market concerns [31]. - **US Dollar Index**: It first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, the strength of US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy expectations drove its movement. In the long term, US fiscal sustainability, dollar credit, and global central bank policy differentiation were the influencing factors. The long - term trend of the US dollar may be weak, which supported the gold price [35][36]. - **Tariff Policy**: It went through four stages: full - scale tariff increase from January to March, establishment of the "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustment from November to December. The tariff policy had a greater impact on precious metal prices in the first half of the year [38][39][42][43]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: The Fed's interest - rate cut path in 2025 had three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to the cooling labor market, and the implementation of the third rate cut in December with internal differences. The future interest - rate path is uncertain [44][45][47]. - **Geopolitics**: The US strategic adjustment and regional armed conflicts increased global uncertainty, driving up the prices of gold and silver. Global central banks' gold - buying and investment demand supported the gold price, while high gold prices suppressed gold jewelry consumption [50][51][53]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Gold**: Investment demand was strong, with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings and active physical investment. Central banks' net gold purchases in the first three quarters reached 634 tons. However, gold jewelry consumption declined, with a 19% year - on - year decline in the third quarter [51][53]. - **Silver**: The supply was rigid, with stagnant mine production and limited growth in recycled silver. The demand was strong, driven by both industry and investment. The industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic industry, was the main growth engine. The World Silver Institute estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces (about 3660 tons) in 2025 [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economic indicators and the changing trading logic supported the precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, and the weakening US dollar will support precious metals. Silver will benefit from triple - driven factors and is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold [64].