Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a sustained high level of market activity and potential for price increases [11][30][55]. Core Insights - Copper prices have increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton on the LME, while domestic prices have slightly decreased. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton on the LME, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton, while domestic prices decreased slightly. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - The smelting sector is experiencing a decrease in operational rates, with a forecasted decline in production due to year-end inventory control [12]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, indicating a continuation of weak demand [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. Antimony - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. Tin - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. Lithium - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59].

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 美委紧张升级，地缘驱动回归 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 油价在地缘局势不确定性和基本面持续疲软的情况下区间波动。美委内瑞拉紧张局势加剧的背景下，油价止 跌反弹。特朗普已下令 "全面彻底封锁" 进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，这加剧了要求总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台 的压力。委内瑞拉在11月份出口了约60万桶/日的石油。鉴于最新的事态发展，这些交易量很可能会下降。标 普数据显示，在美国升级驱逐马杜罗之后，前往委内瑞拉的油轮数量有所下降。地缘局势升级将给短期油价 带来上行驱动，后续关注美委局势进展。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 原油波动率和VIX source： wind,南华研究,彭博 美国原油ETF隐 ...

米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个 基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%， 报67.04美元/盎司。 早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达 3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它 有助于证明美联储'鸽'派轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降 息。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们 将陷入困境。"米兰说。 2026年金价趋势性上涨动力仍在 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储 ...

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 工业贵金属市场多头氛围浓厚 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国 11 月经济仍然偏弱 由于财政刺激退坡以及基数效应减弱等原因，2025 年 11 月中国经济增长动 能继续偏弱。2025 年 1-11 月份中国城镇固定资产投资累积 44.4 万亿元，累积同 比萎缩 2.6%，萎缩程度较 1-10 月份扩大 0.9 个百分点，主要受国际贸易紧张形 势与国内房地产周期下行的双重影响。其中制造业投资累积同比增长 1.9%，增速 较 1-10 月份放缓 0.8 个百分点，且显 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）美国CPI数据超预期放缓。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 | | | （3）美委紧张关系加剧。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 主要观点 本周原油整体延续偏弱运行的态势，美委紧张关系加剧引发地缘风险溢价，但市场缺乏上行的持续驱动，俄乌地 缘缓和预期升温叠加供应过剩的预期仍对盘面形成压制。一方面，美乌柏林会晤在对乌安全保障机制上取得了显著进 展，市场对俄乌达成停火协议的预期升温，另外一方面，OPEC+及美国的原油供应延续环比增长的趋势，进一步强化 市场供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues to be viewed as a safe haven for global investors, experiencing significant volatility following the release of the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which fell to its lowest level since early 2021, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1][6][7]. Economic Indicators - The November CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in March [2][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.12%, which lowers the cost of holding gold [2][7]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, while the Bank of England reduced its benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2][7]. - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [2][7]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies, targeting a "shadow fleet" involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products [2][8]. - U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues is set to meet with officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, amid concerns that both Israel and Hamas are delaying the implementation of the agreement [2][8]. Technical Analysis - The recent trading pattern of gold indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum, with the market showing signs of potential technical pullbacks [3][9]. - The daily chart suggests that gold may face resistance around the 4365-70 range, while support is being tested at the 4320 level [3][9]. - The hourly chart indicates a trend towards horizontal consolidation, but prolonged sideways movement increases the risk of a significant downward correction [3][9]. Trading Recommendations - Day traders should monitor short-term resistance around 4345-50 and support near 4310-05, with potential for further testing of the 4280-70 support zone if these levels are breached [4][9]. - Short positions may be considered if prices rebound to 4330-32, with a stop-loss above 4340 and a target around 4315-10 [4][9]. - Long positions could be attempted near 4305-00, but should be limited to short-term trades with a stop-loss at 4295 and a target of 4320 [4][9].

媒体迅速跟进了这件事。12月2日和4日，多家新闻网站刊登了相关文章，详细报道了马斯克的警告如何引发了网络用户的混乱。很多网友在评论区纷纷询 问，是否这条消息是针对某个特定地区的，还是只是泛指某种全球趋势。一些报道指出，马斯克的言论引发了关于全球安全的广泛讨论，大家开始重新审视 国际对话的重要性，思考地缘政治风险对全球经济和供应链的影响。新闻网站还提到，尽管这种预测引发了公众的焦虑，却也推动了政策层面的辩论。回顾 马斯克过去的言论，事实上，这不是他第一次谈及战争问题。早在2024年8月，英国爆发反移民骚乱时，马斯克就在X平台上回应某条帖子时表示，内战几 乎是不可避免的。当时，骚乱中的示威者破坏了公共设施，焚烧了车辆，并向警察投掷砖块。英国首相Keir Starmer的发言人当时回应称，不应该轻易下此 结论。马斯克当时并未展开细节讨论，但他直指移民政策和开放边境所带来的问题。更早之前的2023年10月，马斯克在一次直播中谈到中东和乌克兰的军事 冲突，并指出这些冲突可能发展成第三次世界大战。他强调，作为亿万富翁，他能从商业角度看待全球事务，但他的关注点依然放在这些冲突有可能升级成 更大规模的战争上。尽管没有给出具体 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is affected by geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, with oil prices under pressure before the further fermentation of geopolitical risks [2]. - Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and if gold breaks through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [3]. - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends, with some having short - term adjustment needs and others having medium - term upward trends [4][5][8]. - Chemical products' prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policies, with varying trends of strength and weakness [12][13][14]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by weather, supply - demand, and policies, and investors need to pay attention to relevant influencing factors [36][37][38]. - The financial market, including stock index and treasury bond, is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market conditions, showing a pattern of volatility and differentiation [47][48]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full - scale blockade of US - sanctioned oil tankers, and the oil export business is normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Oil prices are under pressure after being priced for the rising geopolitical risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela affect fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may get short - term support, but there is medium - term supply pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium term [22]. - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil export eases the tension of domestic refinery asphalt raw material supply. Asphalt refinery inventory accumulates, and the overall commercial inventory reduction is weak, lacking continuous rebound power [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: US November CPI and core CPI fall below expectations. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts. Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and gold is testing the resistance at the historical high [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices continue to have a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic copper inventory increases, but there is still potential for a multi - allocation rally at the end of the year, with short - term callback and consolidation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillates around 22,000 yuan. The medium - term upward - trending pattern remains unchanged, and short - term long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of domestic and foreign mines decreases. Shanghai zinc rebounds after finding support at 22,800 yuan/ton. The short - term is strong, but the medium - term is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level. The lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost supports the price. The import window is open, and the overall supply is sufficient, constraining the price [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounds strongly. Stainless steel spot sales are weak, and the inventory accumulates. Nickel inventory increases, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic. The inventory increases, and high - level risks should be noted [11]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillates at a high level. Overseas mines keep prices firm, and the market inventory decreases. The futures price is strong, and short positions are at a disadvantage [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures fall below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the current reality is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon approaches 8,700 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and the cost support decreases. The increase space is limited [14]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, PVC rises, but the demand is weak. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but the supply pressure is large [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX rises strongly, driving PTA up. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some ethylene glycol plants plan to have maintenance, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, it is under long - term pressure due to the planned new plant production [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Soybean meal prices will follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and waiting for weather changes is recommended [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The increase in the frequency of imported soybean auctions brings short - term supply pressure. Overseas palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and short - term supply - demand weakness should be noted [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. The focus is on the import policy, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [38]. - **Corn**: Northeast and North Port corn prices decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand mismatch eases, and the Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillates weakly at a high level [40]. - **Pig**: The pig futures 01 contract hits a new low, and the 03 contract falls. The pre - Spring Festival spot price is slightly strong, but there may be a second bottom - probing after the Spring Festival [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures contracts fall, and the 03 and 04 contracts after the Spring Festival fall more. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and chicken - chick replenishment and old - chicken elimination should be followed [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton rises slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The new cotton production increases, but the sales progress is fast, supporting the price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. India and Thailand have good production expectations. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production, and Guangxi has a strong production - increase expectation [43]. - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillate. The demand enters the off - season, and the market sentiment is bearish [44]. - **Wood**: Wood futures are at a low level. The supply decreases, the demand in the off - season is okay, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fall slightly. The port inventory decreases, and the new - year contract has less warehouse - receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share index shows mixed performance, and stock index futures fall. The US core CPI hits a three - year low, and the risk preference is boosted. A - shares are supported by the strong RMB and policy expectations, showing an oscillating and differentiated pattern [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Attention should be paid to the impact of US inflation data on interest rate cuts. The domestic market sentiment improves, and the long - end bond recovers significantly [48].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 需求转淡，华北现货加速下跌带动基差大幅走弱。基本面供需双弱，停车 | | | | 比例小幅提升至 15%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装 | | L | 空头延续 | ...