1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend followed by high-level fluctuations, influenced by macroeconomic policy changes [1] - The price of gold was re-evaluated as a core safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, recovering quickly after a brief decline due to the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April [1] - The gold-silver ratio initially rose and then fell, peaking above 100 due to heightened inflation concerns and uncertainty in global economic prospects, before correcting as market sentiment improved [1] Group 2 - In the second half of the year, expectations of a weak U.S. economy and a clearer outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a declining dollar index, create a favorable macro environment for precious metal prices [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical factors, which will enhance its safe-haven appeal [2] - Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - In 2025, silver is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of 4,000 tons, but high inventory levels may limit its commodity attributes [3] - The supply growth of silver is expected to slow to 2% year-on-year due to high base effects and reduced new silver mining projects, while industrial demand is forecasted to decline by approximately 1% [3] - The precious metals market is anticipated to have upward potential in the second half of 2025, with gold prices expected to range between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to range between $32 and $38 per ounce [3]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

Group 1 - The core of the new trade agreement between the US and Japan focuses on several cooperation areas, including semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas, and shipbuilding [2] - Japan has committed to purchasing 75% more US rice immediately and has agreed to buy $8 billion worth of US goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, biofuels, and environmentally friendly fuels for aircraft [2][3] - The agreement also includes Japan's purchase of 100 Boeing commercial aircraft, indicating a significant commitment to US manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The US has strategically targeted Japan's rice market, which is a sensitive and culturally significant area for Japan, as a means to exert pressure during negotiations [10][14] - Japan has historically protected its rice market with high tariffs and subsidies, making it a politically charged issue that the US has leveraged to gain concessions [11][23] - The US's approach marks a shift from broad trade wars to more precise pressure tactics, focusing on Japan's vulnerabilities to achieve broader strategic goals [19][22] Group 3 - The agreement is seen as a way for the US to deepen Japan's economic reliance on it, strengthen military alliances, and counter China's influence [36][47] - Japan's acceptance of the rice agreement reflects a painful compromise, balancing the need to maintain trade stability against the backdrop of internal agricultural challenges and external pressures [34][32] - The deal is expected to have significant implications for Japan's agricultural sector, including potential financial burdens on the government to support affected farmers [35] Group 4 - The US aims to use this trade agreement as a tool for broader geopolitical strategies, including shifting critical supply chains away from China and enhancing military integration with Japan [39][40] - The focus on Japan's rice market serves as a test of Japan's willingness to comply with US demands in other strategic areas, indicating a potential shift in the dynamics of US-Japan relations [41][44] - The agreement highlights the changing landscape of international trade, where cultural and political sensitivities are increasingly becoming focal points in negotiations [52][58]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that tariffs, market dynamics, and geopolitical risks continue to pose significant threats to global credit conditions [1] Group 1: Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs has led to increased costs for businesses, impacting their profitability and credit ratings [1] - Ongoing trade tensions between major economies are expected to exacerbate these tariff-related challenges [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market volatility has been heightened due to economic uncertainties, affecting investor confidence and credit availability [1] - Companies are facing challenges in maintaining stable cash flows amid fluctuating market conditions [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to an unpredictable business environment, which can lead to credit downgrades for affected companies [1] - The potential for conflict or instability in key regions remains a concern for global credit markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024, signaling a pause in its monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40% [1]. - The decision aligns with market expectations, as over 95% of rate futures indicated a likelihood of maintaining rates [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Current inflation is at the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with domestic price pressures easing and wage growth slowing [1]. - The Eurozone economy shows resilience amid a complex global environment, although uncertainty remains, particularly due to trade disputes [1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The ECB's decision has enhanced the attractiveness of euro assets, leading to a short-term rise in the euro against the dollar, surpassing the 1.1757 mark [1]. - The market anticipates that the ECB may delay its final rate cut until December or potentially end the rate-cutting cycle after September [1]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the ECB - There are differing views within the ECB regarding the direction of monetary policy, with "dovish" officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut in September, while "hawkish" officials warn against further cuts due to potential asset bubbles [1]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ECB's decision marks a new phase in Eurozone monetary policy, with the euro's short-term upward potential dependent on the hawkishness of future ECB statements [2]. - Long-term, the ECB must balance economic recovery, inflation management, and geopolitical risks, which will influence global capital flows and asset allocation [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are likely to remain high or continue to rise in the future, with a low probability of significant short-term declines, but potential risks such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions should be monitored [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, aimed at diversifying foreign reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar [5]. - China, as the largest identifiable buyer, has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months as of 2025, with some central bank purchases remaining undisclosed, providing implicit support [5]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to rise rapidly during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, with limited pullbacks [5]. - Investment demand is recovering, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs in Q1 2025, suggesting renewed interest from Western institutions and individual investors [5]. - Strong physical gold demand in China saw a nearly 30% increase in Q1 2025, driven by its investment attributes [5]. - Supply growth is slow, with mining output struggling to increase and rising costs, while old gold recycling has slightly decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Target price: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce (approximately 930 yuan per gram) by mid-2026, nearing the 1,000 yuan per gram target [5]. - Neutral Scenario: Gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations driven by persistent inflation pressures, high interest rates, and stable investment demand without significant growth [5]. - Price range: International gold prices may fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce (approximately 700-820 yuan per gram) [5]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Persistent inflation above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, diminishing gold's attractiveness [5]. - A significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could weaken safe-haven demand, potentially leading to a price pullback [5]. - A strengthening US dollar due to better-than-expected economic recovery in the US or recession in other regions could pressure gold prices [5]. - A slowdown in central bank gold purchases or reductions in holdings by some countries could undermine market confidence [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term allocation: Gold is recommended as a part of an asset portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 5%-15% [5]. - Short-term trading: Investors should monitor key events related to geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation data to adjust positions flexibly [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of non-farm payroll data in influencing gold investment opportunities, highlighting the relationship between market sentiment and economic indicators [1][3] - Investors should consider geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, as they can significantly impact gold prices following non-farm data releases [3][6] - The article suggests that short-term investors can take advantage of market volatility by employing strategies like buying low and selling high, while long-term investors should consider gradual accumulation during price dips [3][5] Group 2 - The performance of U.S. stock indices is noted to have an inverse correlation with gold prices, indicating that favorable non-farm data may lead to a shift of funds from gold to equities [4][6] - It is recommended that investors pay attention to insights from major brokerages and investment banks post non-farm data release to align with market trends [4][5] - The article advises on the importance of managing leverage and diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with increased market volatility [5][6] Group 3 - Global economic trends, trade policies, and tariff adjustments are highlighted as factors that can have a profound effect on gold prices, necessitating a broader macroeconomic perspective [6][7] - The potential for diversification through silver and other precious metals is discussed, suggesting that investors consider these assets to spread risk [7][8] - The article encourages a rational mindset and dynamic strategy adjustments in response to changing market conditions, emphasizing the need for regular review of investment strategies [9]

Core Insights - Japanese direct investment in Taiwan has significantly decreased, with 2024's investment amounting to $452 million, a 73% drop from the 2022 peak of $1.7 billion, and a year-on-year decline of 27% [1][2] - The number of Japanese companies operating in Taiwan has also declined, with 2,988 companies as of July 2024, down 136 from two years prior, representing a 4.4% decrease [2] - Japan's investment focus has shifted from Taiwan to mainland China, where the number of Japanese companies increased from 12,706 in 2022 to 13,034 in 2024 [2] Investment Trends - Japanese companies have historically supported key industries in Taiwan through direct investment, technology transfer, and industrial cooperation, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and precision machinery [5] - Recent trends show significant growth in Japanese investments in consumer products and the semiconductor supply chain, with notable expansions by brands like Muji and Don Quijote [6] - Japan remains Taiwan's third-largest trade partner, with a total trade volume of $72.297 billion in 2024, where Taiwan's exports to Japan were $25.842 billion and imports were $46.455 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $20.613 billion for Taiwan [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape has influenced Japanese companies' investment strategies, shifting from being "technology leaders" to "strategic risk-averse" partners due to rising tensions and competition in high-tech sectors [9] - Japan's aging population and declining domestic market have prompted Japanese firms to seek growth opportunities abroad, with Taiwan being a key market due to established trade relations and consumer familiarity [7] - The recent trade environment has led to Japan experiencing a trade deficit for four consecutive fiscal years, with a reported deficit of 22.158 trillion yen (approximately $107.5 billion) in the first half of 2025 [8]