类别 宏观贵金属周报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 工业贵金属市场多头氛围浓厚 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国 11 月经济仍然偏弱 由于财政刺激退坡以及基数效应减弱等原因，2025 年 11 月中国经济增长动 能继续偏弱。2025 年 1-11 月份中国城镇固定资产投资累积 44.4 万亿元，累积同 比萎缩 2.6%，萎缩程度较 1-10 月份扩大 0.9 个百分点，主要受国际贸易紧张形 势与国内房地产周期下行的双重影响。其中制造业投资累积同比增长 1.9%，增速 较 1-10 月份放缓 0.8 个百分点，且显 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）美国CPI数据超预期放缓。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 | | | （3）美委紧张关系加剧。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 主要观点 本周原油整体延续偏弱运行的态势，美委紧张关系加剧引发地缘风险溢价，但市场缺乏上行的持续驱动，俄乌地 缘缓和预期升温叠加供应过剩的预期仍对盘面形成压制。一方面，美乌柏林会晤在对乌安全保障机制上取得了显著进 展，市场对俄乌达成停火协议的预期升温，另外一方面，OPEC+及美国的原油供应延续环比增长的趋势，进一步强化 市场供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues to be viewed as a safe haven for global investors, experiencing significant volatility following the release of the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which fell to its lowest level since early 2021, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1][6][7]. Economic Indicators - The November CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in March [2][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.12%, which lowers the cost of holding gold [2][7]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, while the Bank of England reduced its benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2][7]. - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [2][7]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies, targeting a "shadow fleet" involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products [2][8]. - U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues is set to meet with officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, amid concerns that both Israel and Hamas are delaying the implementation of the agreement [2][8]. Technical Analysis - The recent trading pattern of gold indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum, with the market showing signs of potential technical pullbacks [3][9]. - The daily chart suggests that gold may face resistance around the 4365-70 range, while support is being tested at the 4320 level [3][9]. - The hourly chart indicates a trend towards horizontal consolidation, but prolonged sideways movement increases the risk of a significant downward correction [3][9]. Trading Recommendations - Day traders should monitor short-term resistance around 4345-50 and support near 4310-05, with potential for further testing of the 4280-70 support zone if these levels are breached [4][9]. - Short positions may be considered if prices rebound to 4330-32, with a stop-loss above 4340 and a target around 4315-10 [4][9]. - Long positions could be attempted near 4305-00, but should be limited to short-term trades with a stop-loss at 4295 and a target of 4320 [4][9].

媒体迅速跟进了这件事。12月2日和4日，多家新闻网站刊登了相关文章，详细报道了马斯克的警告如何引发了网络用户的混乱。很多网友在评论区纷纷询 问，是否这条消息是针对某个特定地区的，还是只是泛指某种全球趋势。一些报道指出，马斯克的言论引发了关于全球安全的广泛讨论，大家开始重新审视 国际对话的重要性，思考地缘政治风险对全球经济和供应链的影响。新闻网站还提到，尽管这种预测引发了公众的焦虑，却也推动了政策层面的辩论。回顾 马斯克过去的言论，事实上，这不是他第一次谈及战争问题。早在2024年8月，英国爆发反移民骚乱时，马斯克就在X平台上回应某条帖子时表示，内战几 乎是不可避免的。当时，骚乱中的示威者破坏了公共设施，焚烧了车辆，并向警察投掷砖块。英国首相Keir Starmer的发言人当时回应称，不应该轻易下此 结论。马斯克当时并未展开细节讨论，但他直指移民政策和开放边境所带来的问题。更早之前的2023年10月，马斯克在一次直播中谈到中东和乌克兰的军事 冲突，并指出这些冲突可能发展成第三次世界大战。他强调，作为亿万富翁，他能从商业角度看待全球事务，但他的关注点依然放在这些冲突有可能升级成 更大规模的战争上。尽管没有给出具体 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is affected by geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, with oil prices under pressure before the further fermentation of geopolitical risks [2]. - Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and if gold breaks through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [3]. - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends, with some having short - term adjustment needs and others having medium - term upward trends [4][5][8]. - Chemical products' prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policies, with varying trends of strength and weakness [12][13][14]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by weather, supply - demand, and policies, and investors need to pay attention to relevant influencing factors [36][37][38]. - The financial market, including stock index and treasury bond, is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market conditions, showing a pattern of volatility and differentiation [47][48]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full - scale blockade of US - sanctioned oil tankers, and the oil export business is normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Oil prices are under pressure after being priced for the rising geopolitical risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela affect fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may get short - term support, but there is medium - term supply pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium term [22]. - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil export eases the tension of domestic refinery asphalt raw material supply. Asphalt refinery inventory accumulates, and the overall commercial inventory reduction is weak, lacking continuous rebound power [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: US November CPI and core CPI fall below expectations. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts. Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and gold is testing the resistance at the historical high [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices continue to have a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic copper inventory increases, but there is still potential for a multi - allocation rally at the end of the year, with short - term callback and consolidation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillates around 22,000 yuan. The medium - term upward - trending pattern remains unchanged, and short - term long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of domestic and foreign mines decreases. Shanghai zinc rebounds after finding support at 22,800 yuan/ton. The short - term is strong, but the medium - term is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level. The lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost supports the price. The import window is open, and the overall supply is sufficient, constraining the price [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounds strongly. Stainless steel spot sales are weak, and the inventory accumulates. Nickel inventory increases, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic. The inventory increases, and high - level risks should be noted [11]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillates at a high level. Overseas mines keep prices firm, and the market inventory decreases. The futures price is strong, and short positions are at a disadvantage [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures fall below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the current reality is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon approaches 8,700 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and the cost support decreases. The increase space is limited [14]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, PVC rises, but the demand is weak. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but the supply pressure is large [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX rises strongly, driving PTA up. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some ethylene glycol plants plan to have maintenance, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, it is under long - term pressure due to the planned new plant production [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Soybean meal prices will follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and waiting for weather changes is recommended [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The increase in the frequency of imported soybean auctions brings short - term supply pressure. Overseas palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and short - term supply - demand weakness should be noted [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. The focus is on the import policy, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [38]. - **Corn**: Northeast and North Port corn prices decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand mismatch eases, and the Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillates weakly at a high level [40]. - **Pig**: The pig futures 01 contract hits a new low, and the 03 contract falls. The pre - Spring Festival spot price is slightly strong, but there may be a second bottom - probing after the Spring Festival [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures contracts fall, and the 03 and 04 contracts after the Spring Festival fall more. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and chicken - chick replenishment and old - chicken elimination should be followed [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton rises slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The new cotton production increases, but the sales progress is fast, supporting the price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. India and Thailand have good production expectations. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production, and Guangxi has a strong production - increase expectation [43]. - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillate. The demand enters the off - season, and the market sentiment is bearish [44]. - **Wood**: Wood futures are at a low level. The supply decreases, the demand in the off - season is okay, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fall slightly. The port inventory decreases, and the new - year contract has less warehouse - receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share index shows mixed performance, and stock index futures fall. The US core CPI hits a three - year low, and the risk preference is boosted. A - shares are supported by the strong RMB and policy expectations, showing an oscillating and differentiated pattern [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Attention should be paid to the impact of US inflation data on interest rate cuts. The domestic market sentiment improves, and the long - end bond recovers significantly [48].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 需求转淡，华北现货加速下跌带动基差大幅走弱。基本面供需双弱，停车 | | | | 比例小幅提升至 15%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装 | | L | 空头延续 | ...

12月19日10时，美元兑加元汇价报1.3778，日内维持窄幅震荡格局，最高触及1.3781，最低下探 1.3768，今开与昨收均为1.3779，日内涨跌幅0.0363%，波动幅度不足0.02%。当前汇价处于多空均衡的 微妙状态，美联储与加拿大央行的政策分化、国际原油价格的持续低迷以及地缘政治风险等因素交织， 共同主导短期汇率走势。 货币政策分化是当前影响美元兑加元走势的核心逻辑之一。美联储方面，理事Christopher Waller重申鸽 派立场，强调将"从容调整政策利率，稳步降至中性水平"，市场据此定价美联储1月维持利率不变的概 率升至75.6%。同时，美国11月非农就业数据呈现分化，11月新增岗位超预期但10月数据大幅下修，凸 显劳动力市场降温迹象，进一步强化美元结构性疲软预期，对汇价形成压制。 加拿大央行则维持中性政策基调，本周公布的11月CPI数据录得2.2%，虽略高于2%的政策目标，但整体 持稳的通胀水平缓解了央行收紧政策的压力，也使其相较于美联储更具政策稳定性，为加元提供支撑。 不过，市场仍存在对加拿大央行明年一季度降息的预期，若国际油价持续低迷压制出口，可能加速宽松 进程，进而削弱加元韧性。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant industry investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, it is highly likely that the price center of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures will decline, and the volatility will continue to converge. The supply - side growth will gradually absorb the "bonus" of the detour caused by the Red Sea crisis, and the global maritime trade growth rate on the demand side may slow down [2][101]. - In 2026, the supply and demand of the Europe Line will both increase, but it is highly probable that the supply - demand situation will become looser. The annual freight rate center of the Europe Line is expected to fluctuate between 1300 - 2500 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of approximately 850 - 1800 points [2][101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Review of Spot and Futures Price Trends**: The Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) as a service - type futures has a relatively weak anchoring between spot and forward prices. The futures price generally follows the spot seasonal pattern, with a steeper upward slope than the downward slope in each V - shaped price movement, and the price center of the V - shaped movement continues to decline. Each contract has its own trading logic, with some similarities, such as the 2602 contract being similar to the 2508 contract [6]. - **Futures Price Structure Trends**: In the two - year listing period of EC, arbitrage trading mainly relied on seasonality. However, in 2025, due to increased macro and geopolitical uncertainties, the traditional trading logic of peak and off - peak seasons may fail. In the context of the Red Sea resumption risk in 2026, the safety margin of long spreads may be easier to capture than short spreads [29]. 3.2 Supply: Static Capacity Tends to be Saturated, and There is a Risk of Red Sea Route Resumption in the Distant Future - **Capacity Development**: In 2026, the global static capacity growth rate will be 4.6%. The Europe Line is expected to receive 8 - 14 new ships, mainly for upgrading ship types and filling small gaps. The difficulty of blank sailings will increase in 2026. In terms of dynamic capacity, the actual weekly average capacity of the China - Northwest Europe route in 2025 increased by 11.4% compared to 2024. In terms of market share, the capacity of Cosco Group and Hapag - Lloyd on the Northwest Europe route has increased [34][36][37]. - **Supply Chain Event Review**: - **Port Congestion**: The average in - port capacity of major ports related to Northwest Europe increased in 2025. Port congestion can cause passive blank sailings, affect the index settlement price, and lead to the loss of customer resources of some shipping companies [47][48]. - **Impact of the US Line on the European Supply Side**: After the implementation of the equal - tariff policy on April 2, 2025, 15 US - bound ships were transferred to the European Line from April to May, increasing the supply pressure. After the relaxation of tariffs on May 12, the US Line "rushed to export", and some ships were transferred from the European Line [54]. - **Impact of the 301 Investigation on the European Line Market**: The US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries and China's counter - measures did not cause significant disruptions to the European Line container shipping market [57][58][59]. 3.3 Demand: There is No Strong Inventory - Replenishment Drive in the US in the First Half of the Year, and European Import Demand May be Resilient - **US Perspective**: In the first half of 2026, if there are no major changes in the Sino - US tariff policy, the US may maintain rigid inventory replenishment. There is no strong upward drive on the demand side, so importers do not have a strong motivation for large - scale inventory replenishment [70]. - **European Perspective**: In 2025, from January to October, Asia's exports of containers to Europe continued to grow rapidly. In 2026, European import demand may be resilient, but attention should be paid to the marginal change in the growth rate [83]. 3.4 Major Geopolitical Events and Their Impact Paths - **Middle East**: The Red Sea and potential Hormuz Strait security risks persist. Shipping companies are preparing for the resumption of the Red Sea route in 2026, but the risk has not completely disappeared, and there is no unified schedule for the west - bound resumption of the European Line. If the Red Sea route resumes, there will be an issue of over - capacity [90][91][92]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: In 2025, the situation on the battlefield tilted in favor of Russia, and there was a "28 - point cease - fire framework" proposed but not accepted. In 2026, the conflict may end with Ukraine "forced to accept a cease - fire" or "resisting firmly with Europe". The easing of the conflict may boost the import demand of the Europe - Mediterranean route and have a positive impact on the European Line [94][95]. - **Taiwan Strait**: Japan's provocations may lead to an escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In case of conflict, the shipping routes in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the Malacca Strait may be affected, leading to an increase in shipping prices [97][98]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - **2602 Contract**: The trading logic is similar to that of the 2508 contract, focusing on freight rate height, inflection point time, and subsequent decline rate. The current most profitable spread - filling market has ended, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and follow the delivery logic [3][102]. - **2604 and 2610 Contracts**: Market speculative funds may try to trade on the off - peak season attributes. The 2604 contract has already priced in most of the off - peak season expectations, and it is recommended to short with a fluctuating rhythm, with a fundamental resistance level of 1150 - 1250 points. The 2610 contract is suitable for trading the long - term weakening of the fundamentals and the negative impact of the Red Sea route resumption [3][102]. - **2606 and 2608 Contracts**: Due to the uncertainty of the Red Sea route resumption rhythm, there is a certain risk in unilateral long positions. In the initial stage, it is advisable to enter the market through 6 - 10 and 8 - 10 long spreads [3][103].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月18日16时17分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.33%，沪银主力收涨3.44%，铂金主力收涨5.32%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑 停火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属 性方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。 鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预 期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到 供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡 ...

随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金现货价格在历史最高 位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于2008年以来的最高价 位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈涨势有望推动铂金在 长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在2026年涨至华尔街心心 念念的5000美元超级关口并非不可能之事。 现货金条价格在每盎司4,335美元附近交投，周三已上涨约0.8%。它距离10月创下的历史最高点仅仅约 50美元。周四即将公布的通胀数据将被市场密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息意愿的线索。 上图显示，金价在创纪录高位附近交投，距离突破历史最高位仅一步之遥，投资者们焦点转向美国数据 与美国 ...