最近贵金属市场的表现真是让人眼前一亮。作为一个在量化投资领域摸爬滚打多年的上海人，我注意到昨夜黄金期货价格突然拉升1.55%，报3410.3美元/盎 司。这让我想起十年前刚开始接触量化投资时，也曾被这样的行情搞得晕头转向。 一、市场表象下的深层逻辑 表面上看，这次贵金属上涨与地缘政治风险有关。伊朗核问题再度升温，加上美联储降息预期，确实为避险资产提供了支撑。但作为一个数据控，我更关注 的是这些事件背后机构资金的实际动向。 记得刚入行时，我也和大多数散户一样，总是被各种消息牵着鼻子走。直到后来接触到量化分析工具，才发现市场真相往往藏在数据里。就拿这次黄金行情 来说，关键不在于涨了多少，而在于谁在买、为什么买。 二、从数据看透机构意图 这些年我最大的感悟就是：市场涨跌不是关键，背后的机构行为才是关键。可惜大多数散户看不到这一点。通过长期积累的交易行为数据，我们可以清晰地 看到不同的资金特征。 比如下面这只股票的表现就很有意思： 图中橙色柱体反映的是机构资金活跃程度的数据。可以看到，即便在股价调整时（图中①、②、③、④位置），机构资金依然保持活跃。这说明什么？说明 大资金根本没打算离场。 三、警惕虚假繁荣 相比之下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are influenced by rising geopolitical risks and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, with recent trading showing profit-taking near multi-year highs [1][3] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On July 21, London silver closed at $38.92 per ounce, up $0.75 or 1.97%, with a daily high of $39.05 and a low of $38.06 [1] - The silver ETF holdings increased to 15,005.79 tons as of July 21, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - Last week, silver prices closed around $38.16, down 0.62% from the 14-year high of $39.13, reflecting a balance between geopolitical risks and mixed signals from the Fed [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable around 4.42%, indicating market confidence in a dovish policy shift later this year [3] - The market anticipates a 45 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with September seen as a likely starting point for rate cuts [3] - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve's independence may support demand for precious metals, including silver [3] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar and electronics sectors, is supporting physical silver consumption [3] - The fundamental outlook for silver remains strong, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and limited upside for the dollar [3] - Silver prices may benefit from policy-driven support and favorable conditions in the real economy, especially if U.S. economic data remains weak [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. House of Representatives has filed criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleging he committed perjury during testimony regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve, which increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2] - The European Union has approved tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion in response to Trump's tariff policies, contributing to market concerns and driving up gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend in gold prices, with support at $3,380 and resistance at $3,450 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC has maintained its oil demand forecast while increasing production expectations, with Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 400,000 barrels per day to the market in June [4] - Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Ukraine's President Zelensky proposing new talks with Russia, but significant military actions continue, indicating that short-term geopolitical risks may not impact oil prices [5] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend in oil prices, fluctuating between $64 and $70, with a critical support level at $65.10 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and U.S. Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index reached a new historical high, with a bullish trend supported by the 60-day and 120-day moving averages [7] - The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant decline, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average, with a focus on potential price retracement around 98.10 [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, short - term safe - haven sentiment pushed up prices, while the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of COMEX gold futures suppressed prices. The increasing market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut provided support. Volume and open interest changes reflected the game between bulls and bears. In the short term, gold prices are suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index and strong US economic data, but geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand provide support. In the medium term, gold will maintain a volatile pattern, and the Fed's policy and the US dollar trend need to be closely monitored [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to run in a volatile manner, and grid trading was recommended in the range of 760 - 782 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to run in a volatile manner, and grid trading is recommended in the range of 760 - 785 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The silver main contract 2510 was volatile and strong last week. The main reason was that the Fed's dovish statement strengthened the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, Trump's intervention intensified the easing sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar was partially suppressed but dominated. The slight decline in warehouse receipts indicated low delivery pressure. In the next week, the core driver is the Fed's interest - rate meeting (expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If it exceeds expectations or PCE data shows inflation cooling, it will boost silver prices). Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar may support safe - haven demand. Silver is more sensitive to interest rates than gold [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to run strongly, with the lower support range at 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9300 [35] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The silver contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with the lower support range at 8800 - 8900 [35] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is making significant efforts to revitalize its advanced semiconductor manufacturing industry, with a focus on achieving mass production of 2nm logic semiconductors by 2027 through the newly established government-private partnership, Rapidus [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Formation - Rapidus was established in 2022 as a joint venture between the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and eight leading companies, including Toyota, NTT, Sony, and SoftBank [2]. - The company aims to leverage global cutting-edge technology and has initiated pilot production at its new facility in Hokkaido, Japan, with plans to deliver its first prototype chips as early as July 2023 [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - **Capital Requirements**: Rapidus faces a significant funding gap, needing a total investment of 5 trillion yen (approximately 34.5 billion USD) to start mass production. So far, it has secured 1.72 trillion yen in government subsidies and 73 billion yen from initial private investors, but additional funding is still required [3][4]. - **Technological Hurdles**: The company must overcome technical challenges associated with the transition from prototype to mass production. Rapidus has obtained manufacturing technology licenses from IBM for Gate All Around (GAA) chip architecture, which is more complex than traditional designs [5][6]. - **Customer Acquisition**: Establishing a strong customer base is crucial for Rapidus. The company has struggled to secure enough clients since its announcement, although it has opened a subsidiary in Silicon Valley to expand its customer network [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Future Outlook - Rapidus is collaborating with IBM and IMEC to enhance its technological capabilities, but the success of these partnerships in achieving mass production remains uncertain [6][7]. - The company is focusing on niche markets to differentiate itself from established competitors like TSMC and Samsung, which are also advancing towards 2nm production [9][10]. - The upcoming delivery of prototype chips will be critical for assessing the project's progress and determining future investment and collaboration decisions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks in Washington and the Middle East, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe [1] Geopolitical Risks - The turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the Houthi attacks on Iraqi oil fields, has led to a daily drop in oil production by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels, impacting the global energy market [4] - The issuance of missile safety alerts by the US Embassy in Israel has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [4] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are causing market fluctuations, with hawkish member Kugler opposing rate cuts while dovish member Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][5] - Market expectations for a July rate cut have risen from 28% to 30%, while the probability of a September cut remains at 54% [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of the US-EU trade war, including a 40% tariff on EU steel starting August 1, has begun to impact the precious metals supply chain [6] - A factory owner in Dongguan reported a 50% drop in orders for 18K gold necklaces destined for the US, resulting in significant inventory losses [6] Market Volatility - A rumor regarding former President Trump's consideration to fire Fed Chair Powell caused gold prices to spike by $50 to a three-week high of $3,377 before dropping back down, illustrating the extreme volatility in the gold market [8] - Gold has experienced nine instances of daily fluctuations exceeding $35 since July [8] Precious Metals Price Movements - Platinum prices have surged to a two-month high of $1,408, driven by miner strikes in South Africa and the booming hydrogen vehicle market, while silver prices have declined due to weak global factory orders [8] - Domestic gold prices in Shanghai opened at 771.2 yuan per gram, slightly down from the previous day, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher due to additional costs [9] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, purchasing between 37 to 39 tons monthly, with China's central bank being the most aggressive, raising its reserves to 2,298 tons over the past eight months [9] - Some Nordic pension funds have increased their gold allocations to 14%, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [9]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Group 1: Middle East Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalations[5] - The potential for localized control or conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global shipping and energy supply[6] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade of the Strait could lead to a supply gap of approximately 12.7% of global oil demand[6] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25% compared to pre-conflict levels[6] - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest exposure to risks from Middle Eastern energy supplies[7] - The chemical industry will be directly impacted, with disruptions likely to affect downstream sectors such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[8] Group 3: China's Response and Strategies - China must diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, particularly in energy and chemicals[8] - Key products at risk include liquefied propane and butane (50.5% reliance), crude oil and asphalt (48.2%), and various chemical compounds (42.4%)[8] - The report suggests enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring alternative import channels from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[73]

这家总部位于伦敦的银行是全球最大贸易金融机构，也是亚太地区与全球商业往来的重要纽带。作为美 国之外最大的美元清算行，汇丰对中美政治博弈极为敏感——今年双方在贸易战中进行多轮交锋后达成 暂时休战，目前关系趋于平稳。 知情人士表示，该地缘政治团队原本职责是协助汇丰高层研判业务所在国风险，部分成员偶尔也会向客 户提供建议。汇丰在声明中称："我们将持续协助客户应对复杂多变的国际环境。" 近几个月来，快速演变的地缘政治已对银行业绩产生压力。受不确定性影响，五大华尔街投行的并购与 IPO业务收入较2021年峰值仍低近40%。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管特朗普重返白宫后全球地缘政治风险持续攀升，但汇丰控股(HSBC.US)仍决定 解散一个专职研判地缘风险的核心团队。据知情人士透露，此举将影响亚洲、欧洲等地区不足10个职 位，部分员工已获内部转岗机会。因涉及人事信息，相关人士要求匿名。 部分竞争对手正积极布局此领域：摩根大通(JPM.US)5月成立地缘政治中心，为客户提供从"中东新棋 局"到"俄乌战争终局"等全方位分析;高盛(GS.US)和Lazard(LAZ.US)也提供类似咨询服务。 汇丰此番调整之际，富国银行(WFC.U ...

Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalation[8] - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant risk factor for global shipping, even if complete blockage is unlikely[9] Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25%, affecting over 12.7% of global oil demand[10] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade could leave a supply gap of approximately 13.1 million barrels per day, equating to 12.7% of global oil demand[10] Regional Vulnerabilities - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest risks due to their reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas[11] - In 2025, China is projected to import 5.4 million barrels per day, making it the largest importer through the Strait[58] Sector-Specific Impacts - The energy and chemical sectors will experience the most immediate impacts, with potential disruptions cascading to transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[11] - High-tech manufacturing, particularly in Israel, may face supply chain disruptions, affecting exports of weapons, medical devices, and semiconductor components[11] Recommendations for China - China should diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on the Middle East, such as fertilizers (87.7% dependency) and liquefied propane (50.5% dependency)[15] - The country is encouraged to enhance domestic production capabilities and explore alternative suppliers from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[87]